居者有其屋的悖论：为何空置房林立，房价却纹丝不动？ 一旦有持续的购买需求存在，开发商自然会乐此不疲地继续兴建房屋。而当购房者趋之若鹜，房价也随 之水涨船高。这便形成了一个恶性循环：房子从安居乐业的港湾，沦为了投机牟利的工具，空置率居高 不下，房价却愈发高不可攀。这不仅让真正有刚性住房需求的人们望而却步，加剧了社会矛盾，更是一 种对宝贵社会资源的巨大浪费。 幸运的是，国家早已敏锐地察觉到这一问题的严重性，并适时提出了"房住不炒"的明确导向。即便面对 疫情的冲击，这一政策的坚持也未曾动摇。值得欣慰的是，"房住不炒"的政策正在逐步显现其成效。房 价过快上涨的势头得到了有效遏制，开发商面临资金压力，放缓了土地购置和新房建设的步伐。那些手 中囤积大量房产、企图通过房价上涨获利的投资者，发现房产变现的难度加大，购房热情也因此降温。 随着购房者入市意愿的减弱，开发商也随之放缓了建造的脚步。长此以往，积压的空置房问题，终将得 到逐步缓解。 步入近年来的诸多住宅小区，放眼望去，一盏盏灯火稀疏的房屋仿佛在诉说着一个令人费解的现实：一 面是林林总总、无人问津的空置房，另一面却是房价居高不下，开发商依然马不停蹄地建造新楼、售卖 房产 ...

Core Viewpoint - Howard Hughes Holdings (HHH) is expected to report a significant decline in quarterly earnings and revenues, indicating potential challenges ahead for the company [1]. Financial Performance - Analysts predict HHH will post quarterly earnings of $0.31 per share, reflecting a decline of 90.5% year-over-year [1]. - Revenues are forecasted to be $613.03 million, representing a year-over-year decrease of 37.7% [1]. Earnings Estimates - Over the last 30 days, there has been no revision in the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter, indicating stability in analysts' forecasts [2]. - Revisions to earnings projections are crucial for predicting investor behavior and stock performance [3]. Revenue Breakdown - 'Revenues- Master Planned Community land sales' are estimated to reach $90.89 million, suggesting a year-over-year increase of 34.2% [5]. - 'Revenues- Strategic Developments Segment' is expected to be $388.63 million, indicating a decline of 50.3% from the previous year [5]. - 'Revenues- Operating Assets Segment' is projected to reach $114.23 million, reflecting a slight increase of 1.5% year-over-year [5]. - 'Revenues- Master Planned Communities Segment' is forecasted to be $110.17 million, suggesting a year-over-year increase of 23.4% [6]. Market Performance - HHH shares have experienced a decline of 1.8% over the past month, compared to a 1.7% decline in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [6]. - HHH holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating it is expected to closely follow overall market performance in the near term [6].

Core Insights - Praetorian Capital's Fund achieved a net return of 0.21% in Q4 2025, resulting in a total return of 12.39% for the year, with an annualized net capital compounding rate of 37.12% since inception on January 1, 2019 [1] - The Fund's performance was impacted by a concentrated portfolio and a focus on asymmetric opportunities, leading to volatility [1] - The core portfolio generated modest returns in 2025, while the Event-Driven book detracted from overall performance [1] Company Focus - Praetorian Capital highlighted The St. Joe Company (NYSE:JOE) as a key investment, which is involved in real estate development and asset management [2] - As of February 13, 2026, The St. Joe Company (NYSE:JOE) stock closed at $70.18, with a one-month return of 7.33% and a 12-month increase of 46.79%, giving it a market capitalization of $4.06 billion [2] - The St. Joe Company owns approximately 167,000 acres in the Florida Panhandle and has been historically undervalued, trading at a fraction of its liquidation value without a catalyst for growth [3]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the Guangzhou Poly Dragon Bay Taikoo Li project marks a significant collaboration between Swire Properties and Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Group, aimed at enhancing Guangzhou's status as an international consumption center and injecting new vitality into the commercial development of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [1][3]. Group 1: Project Overview - The Guangzhou Poly Dragon Bay Taikoo Li is located in the core area of Baihetan in Liwan District, Guangzhou, integrating historical and cultural elements into its design [3]. - The project features an open, low-density street layout, with a 1.3-kilometer riverside landscape transformed into public space, blending historical heritage, natural ecology, and urban life [3]. - The first phase of the project will cover approximately 50,000 square meters and aims to attract over 100 high-quality merchants, with around 40% of the brands being first stores in South China or Guangzhou [3]. Group 2: Future Development Plans - The second phase of the project is expected to commence operations in 2027, introducing international brands, diverse dining options, fashion retail, and cultural arts, while maintaining the open street characteristics of Taikoo Li [3]. - The project aims to create a world-class riverside area that integrates culture, commerce, tourism, and residential living, thereby activating new urban development dynamics [3][4]. Group 3: Strategic Importance - Swire Properties emphasizes that the Guangzhou Poly Dragon Bay Taikoo Li is not just a commercial project but also a testament to its long-term commitment to Guangzhou and continued investment in the mainland Chinese market [4].

Core Insights - Fairholme Capital Management reported an equity portfolio valued at approximately $1.2–1.3 billion, maintaining a highly concentrated, value-oriented strategy focused on a limited number of deeply researched positions [1][11] - The portfolio is primarily concentrated in real estate development, energy infrastructure, and financials, reflecting a high conviction in these sectors [1][11] Portfolio Overview - Total Portfolio Value: ~$1.24 billion [3] - Top 10 Holdings account for over 99% of the portfolio, indicating extreme concentration [3] - Low turnover with minor trimming activity observed [3] Top Holdings - St. Joe Company (JOE): ~$969 million, ~78.2% of the portfolio [3] - Enterprise Products Partners (EPD): ~$170 million, ~13.8% of the portfolio [3] - Bank OZK (OZK): ~$46.7 million, ~3.8% of the portfolio [3] - Berkshire Hathaway (Class B) (BRK.B): ~$24.4 million, ~2.0% of the portfolio [3] - Other holdings include W.R. Berkley, Occidental Petroleum, and Apple, with very small allocations [3] Recent Activity - Major trims included a reduction of ~626k shares in St. Joe Company (~-3% QoQ), indicating routine position management rather than a change in investment thesis [4] - Minor reductions were also noted in Bank OZK (~-0.1%) and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) (~-0.3%), appearing tactical rather than driven by conviction [5][6] - No significant new additions were disclosed, reinforcing a low-turnover, high-conviction investment posture [7] Portfolio Characteristics - Investment style is characterized as Deep Value with High-Conviction Concentration [9] - The holding period is very long-term, emphasizing intrinsic value realization over diversification [2][12] - Geographic exposure is primarily U.S.-focused, with an emphasis on asset-heavy, cash-generative businesses [15] Sector Themes - Core sector themes include real estate development, energy infrastructure, and financial services, with a notable focus on the dominant position in St. Joe Company [11][15] - The portfolio reflects a strategy aimed at income generation and cyclical recovery themes through its energy and financial holdings [11]

最近，如果你家有一套老旧房屋，真得密切关注政策动向了。从中央到地方，自主更新、原拆原建的字眼频频出现，这不仅仅是刷刷外墙、通通下水道的小 修小补，而是一场可能重塑楼市格局的深刻变革，是从"拼命盖新房"到"盘活旧房子"，从"增量扩张"到"存量博弈"的转变。 简单来说，这是老破小价值重估的一次难得机会。 多省密集跟进，"原拆原建"被重点提及 让我们先回顾一下时间线： 手握"老破小"？政策风向标务必紧盯！楼市大变革或将来临 早在2025年5月和8月，中央就发布了相关顶层设计文件，明确提出要推进老旧住房的自主更新和原拆原建。这无疑为未来几年的楼市定下了基调。 进入2026年，河南、山东、安徽、福建等省份相继发文，将老旧住房的自主更新和原拆原建提升到地方战略高度，并开始着手制定具体细则，安排试点项 目。 很多人可能会觉得这只是老旧小区改造的另一种说法，但这次真的不一样。 过去的老旧小区改造侧重于小修小补，比如加装电梯、粉刷墙面、改造管线、美化环境。而这次文件强调的"自主更新、原拆原建"，不仅仅是修补，而是允 许在一定条件下拆除重建，或者由业主主导，引入社会资本进行彻底改造。 当然，目前真正落地的项目还不多，主要集中在C ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market during the Spring Festival is facing challenges due to a significant decrease in new housing supply, leading to a reliance on existing inventory and promotional activities to attract buyers [5][6][14]. Group 1: Market Supply and Demand - In January, Chengdu saw only 4,074 new homes enter the market, a decrease of approximately 37.8% compared to 6,548 units in the same month last year [6]. - The limited new supply means that available properties during the Spring Festival will primarily consist of existing inventory, with many projects unable to launch new offerings in time for the holiday [5][6]. - The total available area for sale in Chengdu as of the end of January was 16.864 million square meters, with an average clearance period of 17.2 months [7]. Group 2: Promotional Activities - Many developers are offering significant discounts and incentives during the Spring Festival to clear existing inventory, with various projects announcing special promotions [7][8][10]. - Specific promotions include cash discounts, home appliance gifts, and other incentives aimed at attracting buyers during the holiday period [8][10][11]. - The trend of "not closing" during the Spring Festival is becoming less common, with several projects opting to close during the holiday due to the lack of new supply [5][14]. Group 3: Shifts in Buying Patterns - The focus of "returning home for property purchases" is shifting to suburban areas and new towns around Chengdu, with various promotional activities being launched to attract buyers in these regions [15]. - Events such as "New Year Festival + Property Exhibition" and targeted marketing campaigns are being implemented in areas like Xinjin and Pengzhou to engage returning residents [15]. - Industry experts suggest that while the Spring Festival is a key time for property purchases, many transactions may occur after the holiday, particularly in March when additional discounts and incentives are expected to be offered [15][17].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in Jinan is experiencing a continued adjustment in 2025, with new residential sales prices declining and a shift in market structure towards larger, improvement-oriented housing types [1][11]. Group 1: Market Trends - In 2025, the average sales price index for new residential properties in Jinan decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, while the second-hand residential price index fell by 4.4% [1]. - The average transaction area for new residential properties reached a historical high of 137.05 square meters, with 44.89% of transactions being for improvement-type units between 120-144 square meters, and 29.73% for units larger than 144 square meters [1][7]. - The market is seeing a strong demand for improvement-type housing, with over 94% of new homes sold being larger than 100 square meters [11]. Group 2: Marketing Strategies - During the 2026 Spring Festival, many real estate companies in Jinan launched promotional activities, offering significant discounts and incentives to attract buyers [2][4]. - Various projects provided substantial subsidies, with some offering up to 300,000 yuan in discounts, alongside promotional events like appliance giveaways and themed activities to enhance customer engagement [4][5]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior - There has been a notable increase in customer visits and transactions, with some projects reporting over 800 groups of visitors in a month, indicating a robust demand for improvement-type housing [5][7]. - The majority of new home sales are concentrated in the 120 square meters and above category, with a significant preference for small high-rise, villa, and large flat products [7][8]. Group 4: Industry Dynamics - The Jinan real estate market is shifting from "incremental expansion" to "stock optimization," with a focus on product innovation and service enhancement [8][10]. - The industry is witnessing an increase in concentration, with leading firms focusing on high-quality developments and innovative designs to meet evolving consumer demands [10][12]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The market is expected to stabilize in 2026, with continued improvement in the matching of supply and demand for quality housing, particularly in core areas [11][12]. - Policies such as the optimization of housing provident funds are anticipated to further support the real estate market, making it easier for families to purchase high-quality homes [12].

Core Viewpoint - Kilroy Realty Corporation (NYSE: KRC) is recognized as a notable investment opportunity in the real estate sector, particularly for beginners [1]. Financial Performance - For the fourth quarter, Kilroy Realty reported revenue of $272.2 million, surpassing the consensus estimate of $269.09 million, indicating strong financial performance [2]. - The company described the quarter as concluding "an exceptional year of execution," highlighting robust tenant demand for high-quality office and life science spaces [2]. Market Position and Strategy - Kilroy Realty operates as a landlord and developer in key U.S. markets, including the San Francisco Bay Area, Los Angeles, Seattle, San Diego, and Austin, catering to tenants in technology, media, life sciences, and business services [3]. - The company noted progress in leasing for redevelopment and development projects, benefiting from renewed institutional investor interest in West Coast commercial real estate [2]. Analyst Insights - Evercore ISI analyst Steve Sakwa reduced the price target for Kilroy Realty from $46 to $42 while maintaining an "In Line" rating, indicating a cautious outlook for the company's trajectory into 2027 [2][6]. - The 2026 guidance provided by the company was described as having "no real surprises," reflecting a stable outlook despite uncertainties ahead [2].

北京进深 吴文婷 2月13日，据自媒体销冠100，远郊四区的超级印钞机是中建臻源府，操盘手为徐颖，周宇騉超级倚重她。周宇騉是中建方程董事长。 2026年1月，中建臻源府网签金额为0.7亿元，拿下远郊四区商品住宅项目网签金额排名第一。 | | | | 2026年1月 迈交 四区 商品住宅项目网签金额排名 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 公众号:销冠100 (2026.1.1-2026.1.31) | | | | | No. | 项目名称 | 网 签章数 | 面积 | 均价 | 金额, | | | | | (意) | (万m²) | (万/m2) | (亿) | | | 1 | 中建築源府 | 22 | 0.23 | 2.99 | 0.70 | | | 2 | 国祥誉 | 22 | 0.25 | 2.55 | 0.65 | | | 3 | 万科弗农小镇 | 12 | 0.22 | 1.97 | 0.44 | | | ব | 越秀天恒怀山府 | 13 | 0.15 | 2.48 | 0.37 | 孔令 | | 5 | 首城汇景湾 ...