Core Insights - Palantir Technologies Inc (NASDAQ:PLTR) has been a focus for options traders, consistently appearing on the list of most traded stocks over the past 10 days in 2026 [1] - Following a post-earnings increase of 6.9% on February 3, PLTR remains popular among options traders, with over 4.9 million calls and 5.1 million puts exchanged in the last 10 days [2] - PLTR is one of only two stocks where put volume exceeds call volume, indicating a bearish sentiment among traders [2] Options Activity - The most active options during the recent trading period were the 2/6 160-strike call and the weekly 2/13 150-strike call [2] - The total options volume for PLTR over the last 10 days was 10,144,415, with 4,958,904 calls and 5,185,511 puts [3] Stock Performance - PLTR has experienced a decline of 26.3% year-to-date, with shares recently dropping below the 320-day moving average for the first time since May 2023 [3] - Current support levels may be forming around the $130 mark, with the stock last seen at $130.97, down 0.3% [3] Volatility and Pricing - Options for PLTR are currently priced affordably, with a Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 54%, ranking in the 18th percentile of its annual range, suggesting low volatility expectations from options traders [5]

Market Sentiment - Current market sentiment reflects a risk-off attitude, with a dissonance between the desire for global reflation and concerns over U.S. trade dynamics, leading to lower bond yields [1] - The market is experiencing fear regarding air spending while simultaneously acknowledging the potential disruption in the software sector [3] Software Sector Insights - Not all software companies are equal; some are collaborating with AI model makers, indicating a differentiation within the sector [4] - The software sector has been recognized for its potential disruption, but the broader market has also faced challenges, with many previously strong adopters now under pressure [8] Earnings and Growth - The Russell 3000 median earnings growth is approximately 11%, a significant increase from low single digits in the previous year, indicating a positive trend in earnings [10] - Earnings reports have been solid, contributing to market stability despite broader economic concerns [9] International Trade and Investment - The recommendation is to focus on international trade, as there are favorable policy and fiscal tailwinds benefiting regions like Japan, Latin America, and Europe [6][7] - The absence of negative factors and real fundamental catalysts, such as defense spending and infrastructure rebuilding, are seen as potential growth drivers [15] Market Dynamics - The market is currently taking a pause on major tech stocks (MAG seven) due to a significant ramp-up in spending and the emergence of alternative markets with momentum [13] - European markets, traditionally trading at a discount to the U.S., may have an opportunity to perform better due to their lower tech exposure [14]

James Foord is an economist by trade and has been analyzing global markets for the past decade. He leads the investing group The Pragmatic Investor where the focus is on building robust and truly diversified portfolios that will continually preserve and increase wealth. The Pragmatic Investor covers global macro, international equities, commodities, tech and cryptocurrencies and is designed to guide investors of all levels in their journey. Features include a The Pragmatic Investor Portfolio, weekly market ...

Core Insights - The software industry is experiencing a significant downturn due to fears that advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) will disrupt traditional business models, leading to a market value loss of over $1 trillion in early February [1] - Despite the panic selling, companies like Cloudflare and Microsoft are identified as strong buying opportunities, as they are positioned to benefit from AI rather than be harmed by it [1] Group 1: Cloudflare (NET) - Cloudflare's stock has fallen 26% from November highs, influenced by a network outage and concerns over customer retention [1] - The company forecasts 2026 sales between $2.79 billion and $2.80 billion, exceeding analyst estimates of $2.74 billion, driven by AI demand [1] - Cloudflare's role in supporting AI workloads positions it as a "Tier 1 AI winner," with strategic partnerships and high switching costs enhancing its competitive edge [1] Group 2: Microsoft (MSFT) - Microsoft shares are down 18% year-to-date, with a 12% drop following its fiscal Q2 earnings report due to rising capital expenditures for AI infrastructure [1] - The company reported Q2 revenue of $81.3 billion, with Azure cloud growth stable at 37% to 38%, despite facing capacity constraints from AI chip shortages [1] - Microsoft's heavy reliance on OpenAI, which accounts for 45% of its remaining performance obligations, raises concerns about over-dependence, but its fundamentals support long-term growth in the AI era [1]

CEO Dan Leib said the company delivered solid full-year results despite economic volatility, including software solutions net sales growth of 8.7%, higher adjusted EBITDA, record adjusted EBITDA margin, and higher free cash flow compared to 2024. For the full year, consolidated adjusted EBITDA was $239.8 million, up $22.5 million, or 10.4%, with adjusted EBITDA margin of 31.3%, about 350 basis points higher than 2024. Leib emphasized that 2025’s margin exceeded a prior record of 29.7% even though overall an ...

Core Viewpoint - Burry argues that Palantir's competitive advantage lies in a sophisticated vendor lock-in strategy rather than superior technology, as evidenced by the NYPD's inability to transfer data easily after using Palantir's platform [1][2]. Group 1: NYPD Controversy - The NYPD claims that Palantir refused to provide data in a transferable format, preventing access to analytical insights generated by their own investigators [2]. - This dispute highlights Palantir's business strategy of creating switching costs by making data transfer difficult [3]. Group 2: Intellectual Property vs. Data Ownership - Palantir asserts that while customers own raw data, the organization and visualization of that data through its software is its intellectual property [4]. - The friction arises from the distinction between raw data ownership and the insights derived from it [4]. Group 3: Implications for Investors - If Burry's critique is valid, Palantir's long-term valuation may be jeopardized due to its fragile moat based on obstruction, which could lead to dissatisfaction among clients [6]. - The trend towards data portability and open architectures may challenge Palantir's proprietary model, potentially resulting in diminishing returns [6]. Group 4: Support and Competition - Supporters argue that Palantir's deep integration and unique data handling capabilities make extraction difficult, which is a byproduct of software complexity [7]. - The NYPD has successfully developed its own replacement for Palantir's services, indicating that the company may soon face increased competition [8].

Market Overview - Investor sentiment is currently weighed down by concerns over AI's potential impact on various industries, leading to continued selling pressure in the markets, particularly in technology and software sectors [3][4][9] - The Dow is down 180 points, and the S&P 500 has decreased by 0.75% year-to-date, while the NASDAQ is down 4% [3][5] - Despite the negative sentiment, the S&P 500 remains near record levels, indicating that the market is not far off from its highs [4] Company Earnings and Performance - Walmart is set to report its fourth-quarter earnings, with expectations of strong performance following a successful holiday season, projecting same-store sales growth of around 4.5% [90][93] - Concerns exist regarding future guidance, particularly in light of weak consumer sentiment affecting purchasing patterns, as noted by General Mills [95][98] - Dutch Bros plans to aggressively expand, aiming to open at least 181 stores by 2026 and reach 2,029 shops by 2029, despite shares falling over 30% in the past year due to concerns about demand and costs [33][34] Technology Sector Insights - The software sector is experiencing significant selling pressure, with many stocks underperforming, although some companies, particularly those with usage-based models, may thrive in an AI-driven environment [26][31] - Companies like Micron are facing pressure despite ongoing demand for memory chips, indicating a disconnect between market sentiment and actual business fundamentals [6][7] - The private credit market is showing signs of distress, with over 15% of US leveraged technology loans marked at distressed levels, raising concerns about the overall health of the credit market [9][12] Analyst Ratings and Market Predictions - Morgan Stanley has named Citigroup as a top pick among large US lenders, raising its price target to $152, indicating confidence in the bank's performance [72] - Deutsche Bank has lowered its price target for DraftKings to $26, citing pressures from increased promotions and slowing growth [73] - True Securities upgraded Shopify to a buy rating, highlighting its recent growth and long-term drivers, raising the price target to $150 [75]

Company Overview - Palantir Technologies is a technology company that has gained attention for its data analytics and artificial intelligence applications, particularly due to its work with federal government agencies that require high levels of secrecy [2][6] - Founded in 2003, Palantir initially focused on assisting U.S. intelligence agencies in counterterrorism operations [6] Software Platforms - Palantir has developed four primary software platforms, each building on the successes of its predecessors [7] - Palantir Foundry serves as the core platform for data operations, offering functionalities for data management, systematic mapping, workflow development, and data analytics [7] - Palantir Gotham has emerged as a central platform for mission management in defense and intelligence operations, integrating with other platforms to provide insights across various sectors, including disaster relief [8] Business Mission - The overarching mission of Palantir is to enable clients to better utilize their information for improved decision-making [6]

My Buy call in May last year on Zscaler ( ZS ) was based on sustained growth above 20% and margin strength. Both have happened, and the stock was up by ~50% after the call. The current share prices are ~22% down fromI am a stock analyst with over 20 years of experience in quantitative research, financial modeling, and risk management. My focus is on equity valuation, market trends, and portfolio optimization to uncover high-growth investment opportunities. As a former Vice President at Barclays, I led teams ...

The once relentless rally in AI-fueled stocks has lost momentum, as investors confront the unsettling idea that advances in artificial intelligence could erode the very value propositions that made tech giants dominant in the first place. Yet some executives and market veterans warn against short-term panic, calling the selloff a rare opportunity to buy into the next phase of the AI boom. The AI growth story has been tempered by a widespread selloff in software stocks. Call it the software-mageddon or t ...