Core Points - Nucor Corporation declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.55 per share, marking its 209th consecutive quarterly cash dividend [1] - The dividend is payable on August 11, 2025, to stockholders of record on June 30, 2025 [1] Company Overview - Nucor and its affiliates are manufacturers of steel and steel products, operating in the United States, Canada, and Mexico [2] - The company produces a wide range of products including carbon and alloy steel in various forms, as well as fabricated concrete reinforcing steel and metal building systems [2] - Nucor is recognized as North America's largest recycler and also brokers ferrous and nonferrous metals, pig iron, and hot briquetted iron [2]

Market Overview - The Green Steel Market was valued at USD 7.4 Billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 19.4 Billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 21.4% [1] - The rising sustainability and growing demand for steel make green steel an attractive alternative, significantly increasing its potential in the global market [2] Environmental Impact - Traditional steel manufacturing is energy and carbon-intensive, contributing to about 7% of global carbon dioxide emissions [3] - Green steel production aims to reduce carbon emissions through innovative technologies and renewable energy sources [4][5] Production Techniques - Green steel can be produced using various techniques, including electric arc furnaces, hydrogen-based production, and other fossil-free processing methods [6] - The use of low-carbon energy sources, such as green hydrogen, is essential for transforming the steel industry towards sustainable practices [5][8] Market Drivers and Opportunities - Government support through policies and funding initiatives is expected to propel the development of green steel technologies [7] - Significant investments from leading steel manufacturers are driving the transition to environmentally friendly practices [6] Technological Advancements - Hydrogen-based direct reduction of iron (HDRI) is a leading technology, replacing coal with green hydrogen and producing water instead of CO2 [8] - The Swedish company H2 Green Steel secured $4.54 billion in financing to build a large-scale green steel plant, aiming to produce 5 million tons annually by 2030 [8] Market Segmentation - The green steel market is segmented by processing technique, end-use industries (such as building and construction, transportation, and machinery), and geographic regions [21]

Core Viewpoint - Steel stocks are gaining attention following President Trump's announcement of 50% tariffs on imported steel, with Nucor Corp identified as a top pick by JPMorgan, suggesting a potential 67% upside [1]. Group 1: Company Analysis - Nucor is well-positioned to benefit from the recent tariffs due to its product diversification and lower exposure to underperforming value-add sheet products [2]. - Nucor's focus on plate and rebar, which are performing better, could lead to incremental upside as these prices hold strong [2]. - Nucor's utilization rate was 80% in the first quarter, which is lower than Steel Dynamics' 89% but significantly higher than U.S. Steel Corp's 65% in the Flat-Rolled division, indicating potential for improvement [5]. Group 2: Market Sentiment - Despite a 10% increase in Nucor's stock since the tariff announcement, investors remain cautious due to potential tariff exemptions for USMCA partners Canada and Mexico [3]. - JPMorgan does not anticipate a summer rally for steel prices but sees a firm price floor due to easing scrap costs and rising mill utilization [4]. - The steel market is characterized by a dichotomy of near-term caution and long-term potential, with Nucor favored in the long run if tariffs remain in place and restocking occurs later this year [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on cement, copper, and incrementally positive on steel and aluminium, while holding a negative view on coal and lithium [1][9]. Core Insights - Earnings estimates for China commodities have been refreshed, reflecting mark-to-market price changes for 1H25, with target price changes ranging from -13% to +12% [1][9]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for hog pricing/margin in 2H25E due to improved supply discipline [1][9]. Summary by Sector Steel - Earnings forecasts for Baosteel and Angang have been revised up by 1-4% for 2025E, while the loss-making forecast for Maanshan has been cut by 11% [10]. - Maintain Buy on Baosteel with a new target price of Rmb8.8/sh [10]. Coal - The thermal coal market is expected to remain balanced in 2025E, with a decline in demand driven by renewable energy expansion [11]. - Earnings forecasts for Shenhua, Chinacoal, and Yankuang have been cut by 2-11% for 2025E and 10-27% for 2026-27E [12]. Cement - Unit gross profit forecasts for cement have been revised down by Rmb2-6/t for 2025E, but a positive view is maintained for 2H25E due to supply discipline [13]. - Earnings estimates for CNBM, WCC, BBMG-H/A, Conch-H/A, and CRBMT have been cut by 6% to 18% for 2025E [14]. Aluminum - Earnings estimates for Hongqiao have been revised up by 5-27% for 2025-27E, reflecting higher industry spread forecasts [17]. - Maintain Neutral on Hongqiao with a target price of HK$12.5/sh [17]. Copper - The benchmark copper price forecast has been revised to an average of US$4.20/lb in 2025E and US$4.61/lb in 2026E [18]. - Earnings estimates for CMOC-H/A, JXC-H/A, and MMG have been cut by 1-18% for 2025-26E [18]. Lithium - Earnings estimates for Ganfeng, Tianqi, and Yongxing have been cut by 3-4% for 2025E due to lower lithium prices [20]. - Yongxing's 2027E earnings have been cut by 37% based on flat lithium price forecasts [20]. Paper - Earnings forecasts for ND Paper have been revised up by 3-4%, while Sunpaper's earnings have been cut by 3% [22].

Core Viewpoint - United States Steel has experienced a significant rally of 35% in three weeks, driven by trade protectionist sentiment and optimism surrounding a $14 billion acquisition bid from Japan's Nippon Steel, reaching levels not seen since 2010 [1][2] Group 1: Acquisition Dynamics - The stock is trading close to the proposed buyout price of $55 per share, raising questions about potential upside and whether the rally has peaked [2][5] - Trump's endorsement of the acquisition has been a major catalyst for the stock's rise, with a single statement causing a 20% jump in one session [3][4] - If the acquisition fails, other domestic steelmakers like Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. and Nucor Corp may present better offers, potentially exceeding Nippon's bid [8] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Risks - The stock is currently trading at $53.27, which is just below the proposed acquisition price, indicating limited upside potential [10] - The stock's relative strength index (RSI) is above 75, suggesting it is in overbought territory, indicating that the best-case scenario may already be priced in [10][11] - Labor unions oppose the acquisition, raising concerns about job security and U.S. industrial policy, which could impact the deal's approval [7][8]

Group 1 - Cleveland-Cliffs shares have increased by 28.8% this week, benefiting from the rise in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 [1] - The Trump administration has raised tariffs on foreign steel from 25% to 50%, with the exception of steel from the U.K., which will incur a 25% charge [2] - American steel manufacturers, including Cleveland-Cliffs, will see their products become more competitively priced due to these tariffs [3] Group 2 - The sustainability of Cleveland-Cliffs' benefits from tariffs is uncertain, as tariff policies can change rapidly and unpredictably [5] - Cleveland-Cliffs has struggled financially, barely turning a profit in 2023 and experiencing losses in most quarters, with only one quarter showing a minimal profit of $2 million on $5 billion in sales [6]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. has implemented a 50% tariff on imported steel and aluminum, creating significant opportunities for domestic producers like Cleveland-Cliffs Inc, Nucor Corp, and Steel Dynamics Inc [1][2]. Group 1: Impact of Tariffs on Companies - Cleveland-Cliffs Inc experienced a 25.2% gain in early trading following the tariff announcement, allowing the company to raise prices by $200-300 per ton while remaining competitive [3][4]. - Nucor Corp is expected to boost its EBITDA margins to the 18-20% range over the next 12-18 months due to its low-cost electric arc furnace model and reduced import competition [4]. - Steel Dynamics Inc's diversification into aluminum production is now advantageous, as rising tariffs on both steel and aluminum enhance its pricing power [5]. Group 2: Broader Market Implications - Investors may consider steel-focused ETFs like the VanEck Steel ETF and the SPDR S&P Metals and Mining ETF for diversified exposure to the steel sector [6]. - While current gains are significant, there are concerns about potential policy changes by late 2025 due to structural supply gaps and midterm politics [6].

Group 1: Company Overview - Nucor and Steel Dynamics are both U.S. steelmakers that utilize electric arc mini-mills for steel production, which is more flexible than traditional blast furnace technology [2] - Both companies have established businesses selling fabricated steel products, enhancing their resilience during cyclical downturns in the steel industry [5] Group 2: Financial Performance and Dividends - Nucor is recognized as a Dividend King, having increased its annual dividend for over 50 consecutive years, while Steel Dynamics has raised its dividend annually for 14 years [6][7] - Nucor's dividend has grown at an annualized rate of approximately 4% over the past decade, while Steel Dynamics' dividend has increased by more than 10% annually [8][9] - Nucor's current dividend yield is around 1.8%, compared to Steel Dynamics' yield of 1.5%, both exceeding the S&P 500 average of 1.3% [11] Group 3: Strategic Differences - Nucor operates as a larger, more deliberate company, while Steel Dynamics is characterized as more aggressive, recently entering the aluminum market [10][12] - The choice between Nucor and Steel Dynamics may depend on investor preferences for dividend growth rates and management aggressiveness [12] Group 4: Market Performance - Nucor's stock has experienced a 40% decline from its 2024 highs, which is considered a normal drawdown, while Steel Dynamics is down approximately 10% over the same period [13]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of identifying high-quality and mispriced investment opportunities, suggesting that great investment ideas should be intuitive and involve purchasing strong companies at favorable prices [1]. Group 1 - The focus is on the role of an investment analyst in uncovering valuable investment ideas that are not immediately apparent [1]. - The article highlights the belief that successful investments stem from a combination of quality companies and attractive pricing [1].

Group 1 - Ternium is a significant player in the Latin American industrial sector, not just a steel producer, with nearly twenty years of operational history [1] - The company has successfully integrated the entire steel production process, a feat that few in the sector have achieved [1]