Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - West Fraser generated $84 million of adjusted EBITDA in Q2 2025, representing an approximate 6% margin, indicating a decline due to a cyclical downturn in the market [4][5] - The company exited Q2 with nearly $1.7 billion of available liquidity and a strong cash position net of debts [5][6] - Cash flow from operations was $85 million in Q2, with a net cash balance increasing to $310 million from $156 million in the prior quarter [10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The lumber segment posted adjusted EBITDA of $15 million in Q2, down from $66 million in Q1, primarily due to lower pricing and higher fiber costs [8] - The North America EWP segment generated $68 million of adjusted EBITDA in Q2, down from $125 million in Q1, driven by lower OSB pricing [8] - The Pulp and Paper segment generated negative $1 million of adjusted EBITDA in Q2, compared to $7 million in Q1, largely due to an inventory write-down [8] - The European business posted $2 million of adjusted EBITDA in Q2, an improvement from negative $2 million in Q1, linked to higher OSB pricing and shipments [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. housing starts averaged 1.32 million units on a seasonally adjusted basis in Q2, reflecting a decline in new home construction due to elevated mortgage and interest rates [4][5] - Repair and remodeling demand remained subdued, impacted by broader macroeconomic factors [5] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maintain a strong balance sheet and liquidity profile, allowing for counter-cyclical investments and growth opportunities [6][14] - West Fraser is focused on controlling costs and optimizing its mill portfolio to create a more resilient company [14][15] - The company is actively monitoring trade policies and is prepared to support discussions regarding softwood lumber tariffs [15][16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the near-term outlook remains cloudy due to ongoing complexities in global trade, but they are optimistic about the longer-term prospects for the industry [18] - The company is committed to transparency and regular communication with stakeholders regarding potential changes in the operating environment [17] Other Important Information - The U.S. Department of Commerce released preliminary CVD rates for softwood lumber, with a combined rate of 26.05%, which could result in an expense of $65 million if confirmed [12][13] - The company successfully amended and extended its $1 billion credit facility and increased its $300 million term loan [10] Q&A Session Summary Question: What have you learned about the substitutability between SPF and SYP? - Management noted that price spreads between products fluctuate based on demand, with substitution occurring when products are unavailable [21][22] Question: What are your views on a possible lumber export quota? - Management stated that all options are on the table for discussions regarding trade, and they are prepared to support the government in these negotiations [26][27] Question: Are you cash flow positive in the North American lumber and OSB business? - Management refrained from discussing specific segments but emphasized their ability to weather cycles and drive cash flow even in difficult markets [30][31] Question: What do you need to do to improve the European business? - Management expressed confidence in their European assets and team, noting that they are well-positioned for recovery as demand improves [49][51] Question: What is the current state of contractor availability for CapEx projects? - Management indicated that contractor backlogs are shrinking, allowing for better access to contractors and equipment for ongoing projects [67][68] Question: What does the M&A opportunity set look like in the current market? - Management stated they are ready to acquire quality assets if they become available, focusing on opportunities that enhance their portfolio [72][73]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings | Variety | Rating | | --- | --- | | Oils and Fats | Oscillating [5] | | Protein Meal | Oscillating [5] | | Corn/Starch | Oscillating [6][7] | | Live Pigs | Oscillating Strongly [7] | | Natural Rubber | Oscillating [8] | | Synthetic Rubber | Oscillating [11] | | Cotton | Oscillating [11] | | Sugar | Oscillating Weakly in the Long - Term, Oscillating in the Short - Term [13] | | Pulp | Oscillating Strongly [14][15] | | Logs | Oscillating Weakly [16] | 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including supply, demand, inventory, and price trends. It also evaluates the impact of policies, weather, and other factors on these products. Overall, the market shows a mixed trend with some products expected to be strong, some to oscillate, and some to be weak in different time frames [1][5][7]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Oils and Fats**: Yesterday, it oscillated and diverged, with a strong production increase expectation for Malaysian palm oil in July. International data shows a production increase in Malaysian palm oil from July 1 - 20, while exports decreased. The market is influenced by factors such as US soybean weather, trade agreements, and biodiesel demand [5]. - **Protein Meal**: Spot prices lagged behind the futures, and the market fluctuated more. Internationally, US soybeans are expected to oscillate due to mixed factors. Domestically, there is a short - term adjustment risk, but it is expected to be strong in the long run [5]. - **Corn/Starch**: Affected by the market atmosphere, both futures and spot prices oscillated strongly. Supply may tighten in July - August, but demand is weak due to low livestock and poultry breeding profits and losses in the deep - processing industry [6][7]. - **Live Pigs**: Driven by anti - involution sentiment, far - month futures rose. Supply is under pressure in the short, medium, and long terms, but demand and inventory show some changes. The market is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term with policy influence [1][7]. - **Natural Rubber**: Market bullish sentiment persists, and rubber prices oscillate at a high level. The rubber market is affected by the overall commodity market sentiment, with short - term supply limited and demand relatively stable [8][9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market has entered an adjustment stage. Although it was affected by the overall commodity market adjustment, the price center may rise slightly in the short - term [11]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices oscillated strongly. In the short - term, low inventory supports prices, but upward momentum may be insufficient. In the medium - term, prices may be under pressure due to expected increased production [11]. - **Sugar**: Sugar prices continued to rebound, and attention should be paid to the upper pressure. In the long - term, prices are expected to be weak due to expected supply increase, while in the short - term, they are expected to oscillate [13]. - **Pulp**: Driven by the macro - environment, it is recommended to go long. Although there are supply pressures in the medium - term, the macro - environment remains favorable [14][15]. - **Logs**: The market adjusted downward as the overall market adjusted. The short - term fundamentals are weak, and the market is expected to maintain a supply - demand weak pattern in the medium - term [16]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring The report provides data on various agricultural products, including prices, production, inventory, and other aspects, to help analyze the market trends of these products [20][52][82][108][121][142][160]. 3.3 Rating Standards The report defines different rating standards, such as "strongly bullish", "oscillating strongly", "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", and "weakly bearish", along with the corresponding expected price change ranges and time periods [174].

Report 1: Glass and Soda Ash Futures and Spot Daily Report Core Viewpoints - Yesterday, the market sentiment declined, and soda ash prices followed suit. Coal production cuts boosted market bullish sentiment, and the market has expectations for the elimination of backward production capacity. The overall macro - market sentiment is warm, and the stock market and commodities are rebounding. However, soda ash still has an obvious oversupply situation, and glass also faces over - capacity issues. Both markets need to track the implementation of relevant policies [1]. Key Points from Different Sections Price and Spread - **Glass**:华北报价 rose 0.83% to 1210 yuan/ton,华东报价 rose 0.80% to 1260 yuan/ton,华中报价 rose 2.63% to 1170 yuan/ton, and华南报价 remained unchanged at 1290 yuan/ton. Glass 2505 fell 2.21% to 1372 yuan/ton, and glass 2509 fell 3.04% to 1211 yuan/ton. The 05 basis increased by 20.20% [1]. - **Soda Ash**:华东报价 rose 4.07% to 1280 yuan/ton,华中报价 rose 4.17% to 1250 yuan/ton. Soda ash 2505 fell 1.63% to 1452 yuan/ton, and soda ash 2509 fell 2.51% to 1338 yuan/ton. The 05 basis increased by 19.05% [1]. Supply - Soda ash production rate increased by 3.42% to 84.10%, and weekly output increased by 3.41% to 73.32 million tons. Float glass daily melting volume decreased by 0.38% to 15.78 million tons, and photovoltaic daily melting volume decreased by 2.70% to 91840 tons [1]. Inventory - Glass factory inventory decreased by 3.22% to 6493.90 million cubic meters. Soda ash factory inventory increased by 2.26% to 190.56 million tons, and soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 3.61% to 24.66 million tons. Glass factory soda ash inventory days increased by 11.34% to 23.4 days [1]. Real Estate Data - New construction area increased by 2.99% to - 18.73%, construction area decreased by 7.56% to - 33.33%, completion area increased by 15.67% to - 11.68%, and sales area increased by 12.13% to - 1.55% [1]. Report 2: Log Futures Daily Report Core Viewpoints - Recently, the sentiment of commodities has improved under the tone of anti - involution and stable growth, and log futures rose significantly last week. Currently, log demand is in the off - season, and weak demand drags down spot prices. In the context of strong expectations, attention should be paid to market sentiment changes, log supply, and inventory. Buying on dips can be considered [2]. Key Points from Different Sections Price and Spread - Log 2507 fell 1.79% to 818 yuan/cubic meter, log 2509 fell 1.90% to 823 yuan/cubic meter, log 2511 fell 2.05% to 826 yuan/cubic meter, and log 2601 fell to 835.5 yuan/cubic meter. The 9 - 11 spread increased by 2.5 to - 3 yuan/cubic meter, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 2.5 to - 12.5 yuan/cubic meter [2]. Supply and Demand - Last week, inventory started to accumulate, increasing by 7 million cubic meters. As of July 18, the total national coniferous log inventory was 329 million cubic meters. Demand increased by 0.36 million cubic meters last week. As of July 18, the average daily log delivery volume was 6.24 million cubic meters [2]. Report 3: Polysilicon Futures and Spot Daily Report Core Viewpoints - The current futures price has reached the previous expectation, and the arbitrage window is open. The upstream enterprises have hedging needs. With the approaching of the delivery month, investors need to pay attention to position control and risk management. Whether the price will rise further in the long - term depends on the smoothness of the price transmission mechanism and the implementation of capacity integration and production regulation [3]. Key Points from Different Sections Price and Spread - N - type granular silicon average price rose 2.33% to 44000 yuan/ton, N - type material basis decreased by 31.40% to - 4080 yuan/ton. PS2506 rose 1.99% to 50080 yuan/ton, and some month - to - month spreads changed significantly [3]. Fundamental Data - Weekly silicon wafer production decreased by 3.48% to 11.10 GM, and weekly polysilicon production increased by 0.88% to 2.30 million tons. Monthly polysilicon production increased by 5.10% to 10.10 million tons, and silicon wafer production increased by 1.34% to 58.84 GW [3]. Inventory - Polysilicon inventory decreased by 9.78% to 24.90 million tons, and silicon wafer inventory decreased by 11.64% to 16.02 GM [3]. Report 4: Industrial Silicon Futures and Spot Daily Report Core Viewpoints - Driven by the coking coal futures, industrial silicon futures opened higher but then followed the decline of polysilicon and coking coal futures. The industry profit has been repaired, and the arbitrage window is open. However, the fundamental demand is weakening, and attention should be paid to the inventory pressure. If the prices of polysilicon and coking coal futures fall, the price of industrial silicon will also decline, and buying put options can be considered [4]. Key Points from Different Sections Price and Spread - The price of East China oxygen - passing S15530 industrial silicon rose 3.09% to 10000 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 955.56% to 475 yuan/ton. Some month - to - month spreads changed, with 2508 - 2509 rising 20.00% to - 20 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - National industrial silicon production decreased by 12.10% to 30.08 million tons, and the national start - up rate decreased by 11.37% to 51.23%. Organic silicon DMC production increased by 13.75% to 20.93 million tons, and polysilicon production increased by 5.10% to 10.10 million tons [4]. Inventory - Social inventory decreased by 0.73% to 54.70 million tons, and warehouse receipt inventory increased by 0.11% to 25.05 million tons [4]. Report 5: Natural Rubber Futures and Spot Daily Report Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, due to continuous rainfall in Southeast Asia and typhoons in Hainan, the supply is disrupted, and rubber prices are rebounding. The overall demand is stable, and the terminal demand increment is limited. Short - term observation is recommended, and attention should be paid to the raw material supply situation after the weather improves in the main producing areas [6]. Key Points from Different Sections Price and Spread - The price of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber remained unchanged at 14950 yuan/ton, and the full - latex basis increased by 50.00% to - 55 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spread increased by 5.66% to - 750 yuan/ton [6]. Fundamental Data - In May, Thailand's production increased by 157.52% to 272.20 thousand tons, and China's production increased by 67.02% to 97.00 thousand tons. The start - up rate of semi - steel tires increased by 3.07% to 75.99%, and the start - up rate of all - steel tires increased by 0.54% to 65.10% [6]. Inventory - Bonded area inventory increased by 0.63% to 636383 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange factory warehouse futures inventory decreased by 0.82% to 36691 tons [6].

PT Rimba Partikel Indonesia(英文缩写为RPI)，公司创立于 1990 年，是位于印度尼西亚，住友林业占股 50%的创花板工厂，生产的板材品牌为RPI牌，其产品获得CARB、EPA等权威认证。 虽然利用废旧木材制造刨花板具有显著的环保和资源节约优势，但这一过程也并非没有缺点。客观认识 这些潜在缺点，有助于更全面地理解RPI为确保产品质量所付出的努力。 原料来源复杂性与污染物风险： 缺点： 废旧木材来源极其广泛且复杂，可能混杂着非木质成分（如金属钉、塑料、石块、泥土、油漆 涂层、化学防腐剂残留）或受到虫蛀、霉变的污染。这些污染物如果未被有效清除，不仅会损坏生产设 备，更会直接影响最终板材的质量、强度、外观和环保性能（如增加甲醛释放风险）。 RPI在生产过程中需要做到对回收的废旧木材原料接收环节进行严格分拣、清洗和预处理的重要性。他 们需要投入大量人力和设备（如磁选机、筛分设备、清洗线）来剔除杂质，并对不同来源、种类的废料 进行科学分类和预处理，确保进入生产线的原料纯净度。 RPI旗下对外销售的的刨花板，是一种由锯屑、木纤维，甚至是废木粉用粘合剂紧密粘合而成的复合 板。这些原材料一般从以 ...

Core Insights - Weyerhaeuser (WY) is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.13 per share, reflecting a 38.1% decline year over year, with revenues forecasted at $1.88 billion, a decrease of 3% compared to the previous year [1] - Over the past month, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised downward by 26.7%, indicating a significant reassessment by analysts [1][2] Earnings Estimates - Analysts predict 'Net Sales - Wood Products' to reach $1.32 billion, indicating a year-over-year decline of 7.1% [3] - The 'Net Sales - Real Estate & ENR' is expected to be $143.97 million, showing a year-over-year increase of 32.1% [4] - The consensus estimate for 'Wood Products Segment - Structural Lumber - Third party net sales' is $549.93 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 10.2% [4] Sales Realizations - 'Wood Products Segment - Oriented Strand Board (square feet 3/8) - Third party net sales' is projected at $214.20 million, indicating a year-over-year decline of 25.6% [5] - 'Delivered Logs Third Party Sales Realizations (per ton) - West' is estimated at $117.54, down from $123.15 year-over-year [5] - 'Wood Products - Medium Density Fiberboard (square feet 3/4) - Third party sales realizations' is expected to be $1152.11, compared to $1186.00 last year [6] Sales Volumes - 'Delivered Logs Third Party Sales Volumes (tons) - West' is projected at 1463 thousand tons, down from 1668 thousand tons in the same quarter last year [7] - 'Delivered Logs Third Party Sales Volumes (tons) - South' is expected to reach 4270 thousand tons, compared to 4154 thousand tons in the same quarter of the previous year [7] - 'Delivered Logs Third Party Sales Volumes (tons) - North' is estimated at 143 thousand tons, up from 118 thousand tons year-over-year [8] Additional Metrics - 'Wood Products - Structural Lumber (board feet) - Third party sales volumes' is expected to be 1.18 billion, slightly down from 1.19 billion in the same quarter last year [8] - 'Wood Products - Engineered Solid Section (cubic feet) - Third party sales volumes' is projected at 5.46 million, compared to 6.00 million year-over-year [9] Market Performance - Over the past month, Weyerhaeuser shares have declined by 3.3%, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite has increased by 5.4% [10] - Weyerhaeuser holds a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), indicating a likely underperformance compared to the overall market in the upcoming period [10]

Group 1 - In the first half of the year, Guangxi's foreign trade import and export reached 387.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13%, which is 10.1 percentage points higher than the national foreign trade growth rate, ranking second in the western region [1] - General trade, bonded logistics, and processing trade grew faster than the overall trade, with general trade imports and exports at 169.18 billion yuan, up 17.2%, accounting for 43.7% of Guangxi's total foreign trade [1] - Processing trade saw a significant increase of 66.6%, with imports and exports totaling 45.77 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - Guangxi's exports of electromechanical and labor-intensive products reached 139.13 billion yuan and 38.07 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 29.4% and 4.5%, together accounting for 75.5% of total exports [2] - The import of bulk commodities was 90.23 billion yuan, an increase of 2.4%, representing 59.2% of total imports, with copper concentrate imports driving a 19.8% increase in metal ore imports to 60.57 billion yuan [2] - Production-oriented enterprises showed strong performance with imports and exports totaling 129.94 billion yuan, a growth of 16.5%, exceeding the overall foreign trade growth rate by 3.5 percentage points [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports 2. Core Views - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures are driven by sentiment, with the spot market turning strong but the long - term outlook depending on cold - repair. Soda ash is in an oversupply situation, with inventory building up after maintenance. It is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities in soda ash and to observe the glass market [1] - **Log**: The log futures rose sharply, but the high - temperature season leads to low demand. The short - term upward trend's sustainability is questionable, and it is advisable to wait and see [2] - **Rubber**: Due to continuous rainfall in Southeast Asia and potential typhoons in Hainan, supply is disrupted, while demand is stable. Short - term rubber prices are rising, and a short - selling approach on rebounds is recommended [4] - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price of industrial silicon is stable, and the futures price has increased. The impact of rising polysilicon prices is weakening. Attention should be paid to inventory changes and large - enterprise restart plans, with a focus on price decline risks [6] - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon futures prices have reached a new high. The short - term bullish sentiment is strong, but attention should be paid to supply - demand regulation and risk management [8] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass and soda ash spot prices in most regions are stable, while futures prices have increased. Some spreads have changed significantly [1] - **Supply and Demand**: Soda ash production and inventory are increasing, while float and photovoltaic melting volumes are decreasing [1] - **Real Estate Data**: Real estate indicators such as new construction area and construction area show negative growth, but the decline in some indicators has narrowed [1] Log - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Log futures prices have generally increased, while spot prices in ports are stable. The outer - market quotation has risen [2] - **Supply**: Port shipments have increased, the number of departing ships from New Zealand has decreased, and inventory has decreased [2] - **Demand**: Log demand has decreased, and the daily outbound volume has declined [2] Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Rubber spot prices have mostly increased, and the basis of some varieties has changed [4] - **Fundamental Data**: Rubber production in some countries has increased, tire production has increased slightly, and imports have decreased [4] - **Inventory Changes**: Rubber inventory in bonded areas and warehouses has changed, and the entry and exit rates of dry rubber in Qingdao have adjusted [4] Industrial Silicon - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Industrial silicon spot prices are stable, and the basis of some varieties has decreased [6] - **Monthly Data**: National and regional industrial silicon production and start - up rates have changed, and downstream product production has increased [6] - **Inventory Changes**: Factory and social inventories of industrial silicon have changed slightly, and the number of warehouse receipts has increased [6] Polysilicon - **Spot and Futures Prices**: Polysilicon spot and futures prices have increased, and the basis and spreads of some varieties have changed [8] - **Fundamental Data**: Polysilicon and silicon wafer production and import/export volumes have changed, and demand for silicon wafers has decreased [8] - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon and silicon wafer inventories have decreased, and the number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Most of the industries in the report are rated as "oscillating", with the exception of the log industry which is rated as "oscillating weakly", and the sugar industry which is expected to "oscillate weakly" in the long - term and "oscillate" in the short - term [7][8][9][10][12][14][16][17][18]. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes multiple agricultural and related industries, finding that most industries are currently in an oscillating state. Some industries face supply - demand imbalances, such as the oversupply in the hog industry; others are affected by factors like weather, policies, and trade relations, such as the possible weather - related speculation in natural rubber and the impact of trade agreements on protein meal [1][7][8]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: Oscillating and differentiating, with soybean and rapeseed oils oscillating strongly yesterday. - **Logic**: Good growth of US soybeans, a decrease in US soybean oil inventory, an increase in the expected demand for soybean oil in biodiesel, and the Brazilian biodiesel blending ratio increase. However, there is also pressure from the increase in palm oil production and the high inventory of domestic rapeseed oil [7]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **View**: Due to the signing of the Sino - Australian trade memorandum of understanding, the double - meal oscillated and slightly declined. - **Logic**: Abroad, the growth of US soybeans is smooth, but the export prospects are worrying; Brazil's exports are still high. Domestically, the signing of the Sino - Australian memorandum implies new Australian seed imports, with supply pressure leading to weak spot prices, but concerns about Sino - US trade support the futures prices. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term and be strong in the long - term [8]. 3.3 Corn/Starch - **View**: Spot transactions are light, and futures and spot prices oscillate weakly. - **Logic**: Futures prices rebounded slightly during the day and then fell back. On the spot side, supply at ports and deep - processing plants decreased, and there were price adjustments at some deep - processing plants. Deep - processing production and consumption data changed slightly, and there is a risk of supply shortage before the new grain is listed in large quantities [9][10]. 3.4 Hogs - **View**: Upstream slaughtering puts pressure on hog prices. - **Logic**: In the short - term, large hogs are being slaughtered at an accelerated pace, but the average weight has bottomed out and rebounded, and farmers are still reluctant to sell standard hogs. In the medium - term, the number of new - born piglets has been increasing, and there is room for an increase in hog slaughter in the second half of the year. In the long - term, the current production capacity is still high. The demand for pork has increased week - on - week, and the weight - reduction trend is blocked. In the short - term, the market has positive sentiment, but in the medium - and long - term, there is supply pressure in the third quarter [1][10]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: There may be weather - related speculation, but the expected increase is limited. - **Logic**: The rubber price rose rapidly at the end of trading yesterday, possibly due to weather - related speculation about a typhoon landing in Hainan Island or external capital. The trading logic follows the macro - sentiment, and the fundamentals are currently stable. The supply is affected by the rainy season, and the demand is relatively stable [12][13]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The futures price rebounded after a decline. - **Logic**: The futures price followed the commodity adjustment and then rebounded due to the impact of natural rubber. The upward driving force is not obvious, but there is support from the macro - environment and the improvement in butadiene trading. It is expected to oscillate within a range [14]. 3.7 Cotton - **View**: Cotton prices increased with increased positions, breaking through the 14,000 - yuan mark. - **Logic**: In the medium - and long - term, the cotton market is loose, and the new cotton in Xinjiang is expected to increase in production. The demand is in the off - season, but the current commercial inventory is low. Yesterday, the futures price increased with increased positions, but there are multiple factors restricting further increases, and there is a risk of decline when new cotton is listed in large quantities [14]. 3.8 Sugar - **View**: Sugar prices fluctuated within a narrow range. - **Logic**: In the medium - and long - term, sugar prices are under downward pressure due to the expected supply surplus in the 25/26 sugar - making season. In the short - term, the decline in Brazilian sugar production and high domestic sales rates support sugar prices, but the increase in Brazilian production and exports and domestic imports will increase supply pressure [16]. 3.9 Pulp - **View**: The trend is dominated by the macro - environment, with a stalemate - type fluctuation. - **Logic**: The futures price fluctuated horizontally, and the supply - demand relationship is in a stalemate. The upward driving force comes from the macro - environment, but there is pressure at 5200 - 5300 yuan. In the short - term, there is a slight rebound space, and in the medium - term, there may be a phased increase, but the height is limited [17]. 3.10 Logs - **View**: There are few fundamental contradictions, and the short - term futures price oscillates. - **Logic**: Spot prices are weak due to the impact of delivery products, and the cost of importers has increased. Although it is the off - season, the overall demand is stable, and the market is in the bottom - building stage. There is no clear driving force for upward or downward movement in the short - term [18][19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term arrival of logs at ports remains low, providing some support to the supply side. The off - season of shipments from New Zealand and rising overseas quotes are expected to lead to a gradual decrease in arrivals. - Log demand is in the off - season, with weak port out - bound shipments. Affected by weather and low real - estate start - up rates, demand is expected to remain weak, but the decline space is limited. - Short - term arrival reduction may lead to continuous inventory reduction, but the overall inventory reduction amplitude may be limited due to weak downstream demand. - Spot prices are relatively stable, with a slight decline in the off - season. Future arrival reduction may provide some support. The 09 contract is expected to remain volatile. [7][9][11][17] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Part 1: Log Overview Supply Side - Overseas: In the week of 2025/7/11, the number of arriving ships was 10, a decrease of 3 compared to the previous week; the arrival volume was 34.35 million cubic meters, a decrease of 9.95 million cubic meters. The import volume of coniferous logs was 219.07 million cubic meters, a slight increase of 0.61 million cubic meters. The import volume of radiata pine was 169.00 million cubic meters, an increase of 3.55 million cubic meters. The import volume of spruce - fir was 12.00 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.31 million cubic meters, and the import volume of other coniferous logs was 38.07 million cubic meters, a decrease of 2.63 million cubic meters. - From the perspective of New Zealand's shipping seasonality, June and July are the off - seasons. Rising overseas quotes have curbed the import willingness of domestic traders, and arrivals are expected to decrease gradually. [7] Demand and Inventory Side - Demand: The weekly national shipment volume was 41.16 million cubic meters, a decrease of 5.7 million cubic meters compared to the previous week. The demand in various regions showed a downward trend. The apparent demand was 35.60 million cubic meters, a decrease of 22.5 million cubic meters. - Inventory: The inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu showed different trends. The total inventory was 376.25 million cubic meters, a decrease of 1.3 million cubic meters. Short - term arrival reduction may lead to inventory reduction, but the amplitude may be limited due to weak demand. [9] Price and Spread - Price: The overseas quote of radiata pine increased slightly, while the spot price decreased slightly but remained relatively stable. The price of wood squares was stable, and the futures price showed a downward trend. - Spread: The spot spread was relatively stable, and the futures spread and basis also showed a stable trend. The basis can be considered at the level of 5.9m medium - grade A radiata pine, with a reference size difference of 8%, equivalent to about 780 - 790 yuan per cubic meter on the futures market. [11][13] Strategy Recommendation - The spot market is stable, arrivals are decreasing, and inventory is fluctuating. The futures market is expected to remain volatile. Pay attention to downstream start - up and port inventory. [17] Part 2: Log Balance Sheet The report provides a weekly log balance sheet from 2025 - 01 - 03 to 2025 - 07 - 11, including arrival numbers, arrival weights, daily average shipment volumes, apparent demand, and inventory data by region and tree species, and calculates the supply - demand difference [19]. Part 3: Log Supply - Demand Analysis Supply Side - New Zealand Log Shipment Volume: The report shows the expected departure volume of ships and the expected port shipment volume of New Zealand logs from 2023 to 2025 [26]. - Log Import: The import volume of coniferous logs from 2022 to 2025 is presented, and the import volume by tree species is also analyzed [29]. Demand Side - Log Daily Average Shipment Volume: The daily average out - bound volume of ports in China, Jiangsu, and Shandong from 2022 to 2025 is shown [36][37]. - Real Estate: The cumulative year - on - year data of real estate development investment completion and new construction area, as well as the monthly data of real estate development investment completion, housing construction area, and new construction area from 2021 to 2025 are presented [40][41][42]. Downstream Analysis - Wood Square Analysis - Price: The price trends of radiata pine and spruce wood squares of different specifications in Shandong from 2022 to 2025 are shown [46][47][48][49]. - Wood Square Analysis - Profit: The profit trends of radiata pine and spruce wood squares of different specifications in Shandong from 2024 to 2025 are shown [52][53][54][55]. - Downstream Substitute - Aluminum Alloy Analysis: The development indicators of the aluminum alloy formwork industry from 2020 to 2025 are presented [57]. Inventory Side The report analyzes the inventory by tree species and region, but specific data analysis is not detailed in the summary part [62][68]. Part 4: Cost and Profit The report shows the import cost and profit trends of radiata pine and spruce from 2022 to 2025. The import cost of radiata pine and spruce increased, and the import profit decreased [75][76][77][78]. Part 5: Log Price and Spread Analysis Log Overseas Quote The overseas quote trends of radiata pine and spruce from 2022 to 2025 are presented [82][83]. Seasonality of Radiata Pine and Spruce Prices The price trends of radiata pine and spruce of different specifications from 2024 to 2025 are shown [85]. Seasonality of Radiata Pine and Spruce Spreads The spread trends of radiata pine of different specifications from 2024 to 2025 are presented [88][89][90][91]. Radiata Pine and LG Basis The basis trends of radiata pine of different specifications and LG futures contracts from 2024 to 2025 are shown [94][95][96][97]. LG Main Contract Seasonal Chart and Inter - Month Spread The price trends of the main continuous contract and LG09 contract from 2024 to 2025 are presented [100][101].

Group 1: Natural Rubber Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View Short - term rubber prices rebound due to macro - sentiment, but the weak fundamental expectation remains unchanged. Adopt a short - selling approach on rallies, and consider short positions in the 14,000 - 14,500 range. Pay attention to raw material supply in each production area and US tariff changes [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai increased by 100 yuan/ton to 14,350 yuan/ton, with a 0.70% increase. The basis of whole - milk rubber (switched to the 2509 contract) rose by 145 to - 10, a 93.55% increase. Other raw material prices showed various changes [2]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 10 to - 860, a 1.15% increase; the 1 - 5 spread increased by 15 to - 40, a 27.27% increase; the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 25 to 900, a - 2.70% decrease [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, Thailand's rubber production increased by 166,500 tons to 272,200 tons, a 157.52% increase. The operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased. The domestic tire production decreased slightly, while the tire export volume increased. The import volume of natural rubber decreased [2]. - **Inventory Changes**: The bonded - area inventory increased by 14,802 tons to 632,090 tons, a 2.40% increase. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE increased by 7,258 tons to 36,994 tons, a 24.41% increase [2]. Group 2: Glass and Soda Ash Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View For soda ash, although the futures price rebounded due to macro - sentiment and spot trading improved, the supply - demand situation remains in an obvious surplus, and inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to wait and look for short - selling opportunities after the sentiment fades. For glass, although the futures price is strong due to macro - sentiment, the demand is under pressure in the off - season, and the industry needs capacity reduction. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of glass in North China, East China, Central China, and South China showed small changes. The prices of glass futures contracts 2505 and 2509 increased slightly [4]. - **Soda - ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of soda ash in different regions remained stable. The prices of soda ash futures contracts 2505 and 2509 decreased slightly [4]. - **Supply Data**: The operating rate of soda ash remained unchanged, and the weekly production was stable. The daily melting volume of float glass increased slightly, while the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass remained unchanged [4]. - **Inventory Data**: The glass market inventory decreased by 198,300 square meters to 67.102 million square meters, a - 2.87% decrease. The soda - ash factory inventory and delivery - warehouse inventory increased [4]. - **Real - estate Data**: The year - on - year changes in new construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area showed different trends [4]. Group 3: Log Futures Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View In the fundamental aspect, the demand for logs enters the off - season from June to August. The arrival volume remains low, and the supply is expected to decrease seasonally. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. Be vigilant against emotional price increases [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The prices of log futures contracts 2507, 2509, and 2511 decreased slightly. The prices of some spot logs decreased, while the outer - market quotation increased [5]. - **Supply**: The port shipment volume increased by 228,000 cubic meters to 1.955 million cubic meters, a 13.20% increase. The number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 5 to 58, a - 7.94% decrease [5]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of coniferous logs in China decreased by 130,000 cubic meters to 3.23 million cubic meters, a - 3.87% decrease [5]. - **Demand**: The average daily outbound volume increased by 12,000 cubic meters to 669,000 cubic meters [5]. Group 4: Industrial Silicon Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View The price of industrial silicon increased due to the expectation of anti - involution policies, with less impact from supply - demand fundamentals. The supply is expected to increase further. Technically, it shows a strong - side fluctuation. In the short - term, it is expected to remain strong, but short - selling can be considered if large - scale enterprises resume production or the price of polysilicon drops. Risk management is recommended [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The prices of different grades of industrial silicon in East China and Xinjiang increased. The basis of different grades decreased [6]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts showed various changes [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the national industrial silicon production increased by 20,000 tons to 327,700 tons, a 6.50% increase. The production of related downstream products also changed [6]. - **Inventory Changes**: The factory - warehouse inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 26,200 tons to 123,900 tons, a - 17.46% decrease. The social inventory decreased slightly [6]. Group 5: Polysilicon Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View The price of polysilicon increased rapidly under the expectation of policies, but the market is cautious about the new price. There is a large discount in the futures market, and there is room for price repair. The market may fluctuate greatly next week. Attention should be paid to the price of P - type cauliflower - like polysilicon and risk management [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The average prices of different types of polysilicon remained stable, while the basis of some types increased slightly [7]. - **Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads**: The prices of polysilicon futures contracts and the spreads between different contracts showed various changes [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: The weekly production of silicon wafers and polysilicon decreased. The monthly production of polysilicon increased, while the import and export volumes changed [7]. - **Inventory Changes**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 4,000 tons to 276,000 tons, a 1.47% increase. The silicon - wafer inventory decreased [7].