Key Takeaways CPI Inflation Rate Came In-Line Month over Month to 2.7%Oil and Gasoline Prices Moved Lower; Food and Shelter Rose AgainJPMorgan and Delta Air Lines Beats Estimates on Top and Bottom LinesTuesday, January 13th, 2026A new Inflation Rate hits the tape this morning, coming in flat month over month to +2.7% — still -30 basis points (bps) from the recent high +3.0% back in September. It continues an abrupt turnaround in Consumer Price Index (CPI) year over year, which had risen +70 bps from April t ...

Core Insights - Delta Air Lines Inc's shares have decreased by 2% to $69.55 despite beating fourth-quarter earnings expectations, as revenue missed estimates and 2026 guidance disappointed investors [1] - The company is preparing to increase its order for 30 Boeing 787 Dreamliner jets, which is attracting attention [1] Stock Performance - Shares are moving away from the recent record high of $73.16 on January 5, with support emerging around the $68 region [2] - Over the past nine months, Delta's equity has increased by 72.8%, with an 8.4% year-over-year gain [2] Options Activity - There has been significant options trading activity, with 30,000 calls and 24,000 puts traded, which is four times the typical volume [2] - The most popular options are the January 2026 70-strike call and the 70-strike put in the same series [2] - Delta's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) is at 41%, indicating that near-term option traders are expecting low volatility [3]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Delta achieved record revenue of $58.3 billion for the full year, a 2.3% increase year over year, with an operating margin of 10% and earnings per share of $5.82 [7][17] - In the December quarter, Delta reported record revenue of $14.6 billion, a 1.2% increase compared to the previous year, despite a government shutdown impact of $200 million [19][24] - Free cash flow reached $4.6 billion, the highest in Delta's history, contributing to a reduction in leverage by more than 50% [7][25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Premium revenue grew by 7%, cargo revenue increased by 9%, and maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) revenue surged by 25% [17][18] - Total loyalty revenue improved by 6%, with travel products continuing to grow at double-digit rates [18] - Diverse revenue streams now represent 60% of total revenue, highlighting the success of Delta's integrated commercial strategy [17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Corporate sales grew by 8%, with significant growth across sectors such as banking, consumer services, and media [19] - International performance improved significantly, with unit revenue growth increasing by 5 points, driven by transatlantic and Pacific routes [19] - The U.S. economy remains strong, with consumer spending on travel among the top categories, supporting Delta's positive outlook for revenue growth of 5%-7% in the March quarter [9][21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Delta aims to reshape the end-to-end travel experience, focusing on premium offerings and expanding its lounge network [10][11] - The company is investing in a new fleet, including an order for 30 Boeing 787-10s, to enhance its international network and improve operational efficiency [12][29] - Delta's strategy includes leveraging technology and partnerships to enhance customer engagement and drive high-margin revenue streams [11][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism for 2026, expecting earnings per share growth of 20% year over year, supported by strong demand and a balanced supply-demand environment [10][26] - The company is focused on maintaining disciplined cost management while expanding high-margin revenue streams [26][28] - Management acknowledged the challenges in operational reliability post-COVID but emphasized ongoing efforts to improve recovery capabilities [78][80] Other Important Information - Delta awarded a 4% pay increase and announced a $1.3 billion profit-sharing payout, reflecting the company's commitment to its employees [8] - Glen Hauenstein, the President, will retire, with Joe Esposito stepping into the Chief Commercial Officer role, ensuring continuity in leadership [14][30] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of potential 10% rate cap on Delta's competitiveness - Management noted that while it's early to speculate, Delta's premium card offerings would likely benefit from any changes in the industry [34] Question: Regrets about missing future industry developments - Glen Hauenstein expressed excitement about ongoing partnerships and new fleet introductions but acknowledged the challenges of leaving [36][39] Question: Acceleration of demand trends and booking curve normalization - Management confirmed that demand has accelerated across all segments, with the booking curve returning to normal levels [46][47] Question: Corporate demand and market share gains - Management indicated that Delta's market share is at an all-time high, supported by broader market trends [52] Question: Sustainability of current demand strength - Management expressed confidence in the stability of demand, particularly as economic uncertainties have lessened [69] Question: Rationale for new aircraft orders - Management highlighted the financial benefits and operational efficiencies of the Boeing 787-10, which will replace older aircraft [71][72] Question: Differentiation in operational reliability - Management acknowledged the need for improvement in recovery capabilities but emphasized Delta's strong foundation and ongoing efforts [78][80]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Delta achieved record revenue of $58.3 billion for the full year 2025, a 2.3% increase year-over-year, with an operating margin of 10% and earnings per share of $5.82 [18][8] - In Q4 2025, Delta reported record revenue of $14.6 billion, a 1.2% increase from Q4 2024, despite a $200 million impact from the government shutdown [20][25] - Free cash flow reached $4.6 billion, the highest in Delta's history, contributing to a reduction in leverage by more than 50% [8][26] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Premium revenue grew by 7%, cargo revenue increased by 9%, and maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) revenue grew by 25% in 2025 [18][19] - Total loyalty revenue improved by 6%, with travel products continuing to grow at double-digit rates [19] - Corporate sales grew by 8%, with significant growth across banking, consumer services, and media sectors [20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Delta's international performance improved significantly, with unit revenue growth increasing by 5 points, driven by transatlantic and Pacific routes [20] - The company expects revenue growth of 5%-7% in the March quarter of 2026, supported by strong consumer and corporate demand [10][22] - Delta's market share is at an all-time high, indicating strong competitive positioning [53] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Delta aims to reshape the end-to-end travel experience, focusing on premium offerings and expanding its international footprint [11][13] - The company plans to invest in a new fleet, including an order for 30 Boeing 787-10s, to enhance its international network and improve operational efficiency [13][30] - Delta's strategy includes leveraging technology and partnerships to enhance customer engagement and drive high-margin revenue streams [12][18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism for 2026, citing robust demand and a balanced supply-demand environment in the industry [22][70] - The company anticipates earnings per share growth of 20% year-over-year in 2026, with free cash flow expected to be between $3 billion and $4 billion [11][27] - Management acknowledged challenges in operational reliability and recovery but emphasized ongoing efforts to improve these areas [80][81] Other Important Information - Delta awarded a 4% pay increase and announced a $1.3 billion profit-sharing payout for 2025, reflecting the company's commitment to its employees [9] - Glen Hauenstein, the President, will retire, with Joe Esposito taking over as Chief Commercial Officer, ensuring continuity in leadership [15][16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of potential 10% rate cap on Delta's competitiveness - Management indicated that while it is early to speculate, Delta's premium card offerings would likely benefit if the cap is implemented, as it would restrict lower-end consumers' access to credit [34][36] Question: Regrets about industry evolution not being present - Glen Hauenstein mentioned missing the continued evolution of partnerships and the performance of new fleets, emphasizing the importance of long-term vision [37][39] Question: Acceleration of demand trends into 2026 - Management confirmed that demand has accelerated across all entities and geographies, with a return to more normal booking patterns [45][48] Question: Corporate demand and market share gains - Management noted that Delta's market share is at an all-time high, with broader market improvements contributing to positive corporate demand [52][53] Question: Differentiation in operational reliability - Management acknowledged the need for improvement in recovery from irregular operations but highlighted Delta's strong foundation and recent recognition as the most on-time airline [78][80]

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates a year-over-year decline in United Airlines' earnings despite an increase in revenues for the quarter ending December 2025, with actual results being crucial for stock price movement [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - United Airlines is expected to report quarterly earnings of $2.98 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 8.6%, while revenues are projected to reach $15.38 billion, an increase of 4.7% from the previous year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 3.77% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts regarding the company's earnings outlook [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model suggests that the Most Accurate Estimate for United is lower than the consensus estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -1.75%, indicating a bearish sentiment among analysts [12]. Historical Performance - United Airlines has consistently beaten consensus EPS estimates in the last four quarters, with a notable surprise of +5.30% in the most recent quarter [13][14]. Investment Considerations - Despite the potential for an earnings beat, other factors may influence stock performance, and the current combination of a negative Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 complicates predictions for the upcoming earnings report [10][12][17].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Delta achieved record revenue of $58.3 billion for the full year 2025, reflecting a 2.3% year-over-year increase, with an operating margin of 10% and earnings per share of $5.82 [5][16] - In Q4 2025, Delta reported record revenue of $14.6 billion, a 1.2% increase from Q4 2024, despite a $200 million impact from the government shutdown [18][23] - Free cash flow reached $4.6 billion, the highest in Delta's history, contributing to a reduction in leverage by more than 50% over the past three years [5][24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Premium revenue grew by 7%, cargo revenue increased by 9%, and maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) revenue surged by 25% in 2025 [16][17] - Total loyalty revenue improved by 6%, with travel products continuing to grow at double-digit rates [17] - Corporate sales grew by 8%, with significant contributions from banking, consumer services, and media sectors [18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. economy remains strong, with consumers prioritizing travel, which is among the top spending categories [8] - Business travel is showing signs of recovery, with corporate customers indicating an expected increase in travel spending [8][19] - Delta's market share is at an all-time high, reflecting gradual gains over the years [51] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Delta aims to reshape the end-to-end travel experience, focusing on premium offerings and enhancing customer engagement through technology and partnerships [9][10] - The company plans to expand its international footprint while continuing to grow margins, supported by investments in fleet renewal and joint ventures [11][20] - Delta's strategy includes leveraging its loyalty program and co-branded partnerships to drive high-margin revenue streams [10][17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism for 2026, expecting earnings per share growth of 20% year-over-year and free cash flow of $3-$4 billion [9][25] - The company anticipates revenue growth of 5%-7% in Q1 2026, supported by strong demand and a balanced supply-demand environment [19][24] - Management acknowledged the challenges of the previous year but emphasized a strong start to 2026 with record bookings and positive demand trends [19][25] Other Important Information - Delta announced an order for 30 Boeing 787-10 aircraft, enhancing its international network and operational capabilities [11][27] - The company is committed to maintaining a strong balance sheet, with adjusted net debt of approximately $14 billion and unencumbered assets of $35 billion [24][26] - Delta's operational reliability has improved, being recognized as the most on-time airline in North America [76] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of potential interest rate cap on Delta's competitiveness - Management noted that while it is early to speculate, Delta's premium card offerings would likely maintain their value and differentiation even if the cap is implemented [32][34] Question: Glen's reflections on industry evolution - Glen expressed pride in Delta's accomplishments and highlighted the importance of continued boldness in strategy for future success [84] Question: Acceleration of demand trends - Management confirmed that demand has accelerated across all segments and geographies, with a return to more normal booking patterns [44][45] Question: Corporate demand outlook - Management indicated that corporate demand is strong, with Delta's market share at an all-time high, contributing to positive expectations for 2026 [51] Question: Differentiation in operational reliability - Management acknowledged ongoing work to improve recovery from irregular operations but emphasized Delta's strong foundation and leadership in operational metrics [76][78] Question: MRO business outlook - Management expressed optimism for the MRO segment, anticipating significant revenue growth and margin expansion in the coming years [86][88]

Core Insights - Delta Air Lines' profit forecasts fell short of investor expectations, leading to a 2% drop in shares [1] - The company projected fiscal 2026 adjusted profit growth of 20% at the midpoint, but its guidance for full-year adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $6.50 to $7.50 was below the $7.26 consensus forecast [2] - Delta's fourth-quarter profit for fiscal 2025 was $1.55 per share, slightly missing estimates, although operating revenue of $16 billion exceeded projections [4] Financial Performance - For fiscal 2025, Delta reported a profit of $5 billion on over $63 billion in operating revenue, with a significant contribution from American Express, which provided $8.2 billion in remuneration growth [5] - The airline experienced a loss in passenger revenue, with a passenger revenue per available seat mile (PRASM) of 17.37 cents, lower than the cost per available seat mile (CASM) of 19.31 cents [5] Industry Context - Delta is the largest U.S. airline by revenue, highlighting the challenges in profitability within the airline industry due to rising operating costs outpacing passenger revenue [3] - The company continues to depend on more lucrative business segments, such as co-branded credit cards, to bolster profits while passenger operations remain unprofitable [7] Future Outlook - Delta announced a deal with Boeing to purchase 30 787-10 widebody aircraft, with options for 30 more, set for delivery starting in 2031, indicating a focus on fleet modernization [6][7] - CEO Ed Bastian emphasized the importance of enhancing customer experience and operational improvements through fleet upgrades [7]

Core Viewpoint - United Airlines (UAL) is expected to report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on January 20, with earnings per share (EPS) estimates showing a decline compared to the previous year, while revenues are projected to increase slightly [1][11]. Financial Performance Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for UAL's fourth-quarter 2025 earnings has decreased by 7.6% over the past 60 days to $3.05 per share, indicating a 6.4% decline from fourth-quarter 2024 actuals [1][11]. - Revenue estimates for the same quarter are set at $15.44 billion, reflecting a 5.04% increase from fourth-quarter 2024 actuals [1][11]. Historical Performance - UAL has a positive earnings surprise history, having exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the last four quarters, with an average beat of 8.8% [2]. Factors Influencing Q4 Performance - The anticipated performance boost for UAL in the upcoming quarter is attributed to an increase in total revenues, primarily driven by high passenger revenues as domestic air travel demand stabilizes [3]. - Upbeat passenger volumes during the Thanksgiving holiday period are expected to contribute positively to the top-line performance, with passenger revenues estimated to rise by 5.5% from fourth-quarter 2024 actuals [4]. Challenges Facing UAL - Geopolitical uncertainty, tariff-related pressures, and persistent inflation are likely to negatively impact UAL's operations, potentially causing volatility in passenger traffic and limiting the airline's ability to maintain strong yields and consistent revenue growth [5]. Earnings Prediction Model - Current models do not predict an earnings beat for UAL, as the company has an Earnings ESP of -3.56% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [6][7].

Core Insights - Delta Air Lines reported a revenue of $16 billion for the quarter ended December 2025, marking a 2.9% increase year-over-year, and an EPS of $1.55, down from $1.85 in the same quarter last year [1] - The revenue exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $15.63 billion by 2.41%, while the EPS did not meet the consensus estimate of $1.53 [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Passenger Load Factor was reported at 82%, below the average estimate of 84.2% from five analysts [4] - Revenue Passenger Miles totaled 59.86 billion, compared to the estimated 62.14 billion [4] - Cost per Available Seat Mile (CASM) was 14.27 cents, slightly above the average estimate of 14.17 cents [4] - Average price per fuel gallon was adjusted to $2.28, lower than the estimated $2.35 [4] - Available Seat Miles were reported at 72.95 billion, compared to the average estimate of 73.41 billion [4] - Total Revenue per Available Seat Mile (TRASM) was 21.94 cents, exceeding the average estimate of 21.23 cents [4] - Operating Revenues from Passenger services were $12.92 billion, slightly below the average estimate of $13.07 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 0.8% [4] - Operating Revenues from Cargo were $246 million, surpassing the estimated $230.9 million, but showing a year-over-year decline of 1.2% [4] - Operating Revenues from Other sources reached $2.84 billion, exceeding the average estimate of $2.56 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 13.9% [4] Stock Performance - Delta's shares have returned -0.3% over the past month, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite increased by 2.3% [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating expected performance in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market opened on January 13th, 2026, with major indexes showing mixed to slightly lower performance as investors reacted to inflation data and the start of the fourth-quarter earnings season [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was down approximately 0.5% at the open, while the S&P 500 (SPX) saw a modest decline of around 0.1% [2] - The Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) was trading near flat, indicating stability in tech stocks despite broader market hesitancy [2] Economic Data - The December Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed a year-over-year increase of 2.7%, consistent with November's figure, while "core" prices rose 2.6%, below the consensus projection of 2.8% [4] - Investors are also monitoring new home sales figures, the NFIB small business optimism index, and updates on the U.S. budget deficit [5] Earnings Season - The fourth-quarter earnings season began with major U.S. banks reporting mixed results; JPMorgan Chase (JPM) reported adjusted profits that beat expectations but had slightly lower revenue [6] - Bank of New York Mellon (BK) reported a rise in profit and record revenue for 2025, while Delta Air Lines (DAL) disappointed with its fiscal 2025 fourth-quarter profit and guidance, leading to a nearly 6% drop in shares [6] Corporate Developments - Apple (AAPL) is reportedly integrating Google's (GOOGL) Gemini AI into its Siri voice assistant, which could impact both companies and the AI landscape [11] - SK Hynix announced plans to build a $13 billion chip packaging plant in South Korea, indicating rising demand for AI chips [11] - U.S. Bancorp (USB) is acquiring BTIG for up to $1 billion in cash and stock [11] - Walmart (WMT) shares increased by 3.0% following its inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 index and the introduction of new AI features [11]