Core Insights - The global economy is expected to continue growing in 2026, avoiding recession despite ongoing risks, supported by strong fundamentals in equities and a new inflation regime affecting fixed income investors [1][3][4] - Active management is emphasized due to structural divergence within asset classes, with a preference for equities over bonds [2][3] Global Economic Outlook - Resilience in the global economy is noted, with supportive policies and lower interest rates expected to enhance economic momentum [3] - Real GDP growth is projected to remain under 2% globally, with the U.S. and Canada leading at an estimated annual growth of 1.5% [4] Asset Class Highlights - **U.S. Equities**: Strong fundamentals support equities, but stretched valuations and narrow leadership indicate a need for selectivity [3] - **Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS)**: Inflation is expected to remain above average at about 3%, making TIPS a compelling hedge [3] - **Global Bonds**: Diversification through global government bonds is recommended as reliance on U.S. Treasurys is outdated [3] - **Private Assets**: The private credit landscape is evolving, with a shift towards more complex strategies due to tight spreads [3] - **Real Assets**: Infrastructure investments are highlighted as beneficiaries of long-term trends in technology and energy transition, providing resilience against inflation [3]

Bitcoin, crypto market wavers as Japan's bond yield hits ATH ahead of Nvidia earnings, FOMC minutes release and Nonfarm payroll jobs data — Source: CoinGape Crypto market braces for Yen carry trades unwind as Japan's long-term bond yield hits new high. Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP and other altcoins pare gains ahead of Nvidia earnings, FOMC minutes, NFP jobs data. Bull-Bear Structure Index signals continued dominance of bearish factors. Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP and other altcoins pare gains as the crypto ...

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Asian Markets and Economic Policy - China successfully secured €4 billion through a dual-tranche bond offering, indicating strong engagement in global financial markets [2] - The People's Bank of China injected a net 115 billion yuan into the market via 7-day reverse repos at a stable rate of 1.40%, with the USD/CNY reference rate fixed at 7.0872 [2] - There is an increasing foreign interest in Chinese bonds, as overseas investors are reportedly utilizing a new bond repurchase facility [2] U.S. Economic Indicators and Global Trade - The U.S. labor market showed concerning signs with layoff notices surging to 39,000 in October, a level only surpassed during major economic downturns [4] - Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries dipped in September, although Japan significantly increased its purchases during the same period, highlighting differing international investment strategies [5] Precious Metals and Currency Movements - Gold prices strengthened, with XAU/USD climbing above $4,050 amid risk-off trading sentiment, as investors await U.S. economic data for insights on the Federal Reserve's interest rate path [6] - The Malaysian ringgit strengthened against the U.S. dollar, while the NZD/USD fell below 0.5650 in anticipation of a final rate reduction by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand [7] Automotive Sector Developments - The electric vehicle (EV) segment is a significant driver for corporate performance, with Xiaomi reporting strong third-quarter earnings propelled by its EV division, marking positive operating income from these newer business lines [8] - In contrast, Volkswagen is scaling back its EV investment in India while seeking a suitable partner for operations [10] - Toyota is investing $912 million across five U.S. manufacturing plants to boost hybrid vehicle output, part of a larger $10 billion plan over the next five years in the U.S. [10] Geopolitical and Regional Updates - Saudi Arabia secured major defense and nuclear cooperation agreements with the U.S., achieving non-NATO ally status and planning to purchase nearly 300 U.S. tanks [11] - In Australia, stable wage growth was observed in the third quarter, with public sector wages reaching a 12-year high of 3.5%, contributing to an overall annual pay growth of 4.0% [11]

利率走廊收窄的债市含义 20251118 理想中的短期利率走廊应具备以下特征：一是能够有效控制市场基准利率如 DR007 等波动区间，使其围绕政策目标稳定运行；二是具有灵活且透明的调控 机制，以便及时应对市场变化；三是涵盖广泛，包括商业银行及非银机构，以 确保全面覆盖金融体系各类参与者。 可以借鉴美联储经验。在 2008 年次贷危 机前，美联储通过日常 OMO 操作使实际联邦基金有效利用 EFFF 围绕目标波动， 实现精准管控。次贷危机后，由于 QE 导致银行间流动性过剩，美联储创设 IORB 与 ONRRP 组成新的地板系统，通过这些工具调整市场流动性。因此，我 国央行可考虑类似方式，通过日常精准投放与新型工具组合，提高资金面稳定 性与预见性，从而增强金融服务实体经济效能。 收窄短期利率走廊会对债市产生哪些具体影响？ 潘功胜行长在十五规划学习材料中提到要收窄短期利率走廊的宽度，这对央行 货币政策操作和债市定价有何影响？ 潘功胜行长提到收窄短期利率走廊的宽度，这将对央行货币政策操作和债市定 价产生深远影响。目前，人民银行已初步形成以 7 天逆回购利率为基准政策利 率、DR007 为基准市场利率的货币政策调控框 ...

Core Viewpoint - The National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) has faced criticism from the Supreme Court regarding its operational inefficiencies and the need for structural reforms to address the backlog of cases, particularly under the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) [2][4][8]. Group 1: Judicial Criticism and Operational Challenges - The Supreme Court has mandated the filling of vacancies in NCLT and NCLAT and the establishment of dedicated IBC benches to address operational inefficiencies [2][3]. - The NCLT's dual role under the Companies Act and IBC has led to a skewed focus on IBC-related cases, impacting its ability to adjudicate other corporate disputes effectively [4][5]. - As of March 31, 2025, there were 48,089 fresh IBC filings and 36,374 filings under the Companies Act, with a total of 30,600 pending IBC cases and 15,033 pending under the Companies Act [5]. Group 2: Proposed Reforms and Future Directions - A parliamentary finance committee has proposed the creation of dedicated NCLT and NCLAT courts for IBC cases to address delays, which currently average 507 days, exceeding the 330-day limit set by the Code [8][9]. - The proposal suggests converting existing NCLTs under the Companies Act to handle IBC matters exclusively, allowing High Courts to regain jurisdiction over all Companies Act matters [9].

Core Viewpoint - The current gold bull market has seen prices surge to $4,250/ounce, marking a 60% increase year-to-date, with expectations for continued outperformance through the decade [2][3][4]. Group 1: Reasons for Bullish Outlook on Gold - Foreign central banks are net buyers of gold, reversing a trend of net selling prior to the 2008 financial crisis, driven by concerns over U.S. Treasury bonds and geopolitical tensions [8]. - Persistent inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, with expectations for re-acceleration due to factors like a depreciating dollar and high fiscal deficits, leading investors to seek scarce assets like gold [8]. - The relative geopolitical and economic power of the U.S. is declining, with its share of global GDP dropping to 12.7% from 35% in 1944, prompting countries to trade in local currencies and increasing gold's appeal as a reserve asset [8]. - Gold is becoming more useful as a neutral reserve asset, with a growing share of international trade being conducted in local currencies and imbalances settled in gold [8]. - Western investors are under-allocated in gold compared to Asian investors, with U.S. family offices holding only about 1% in commodities, indicating potential for increased demand as allocations shift [8]. - Physical gold stores in the West are low and declining, with significant quantities moving to Eastern countries, which could lead to price increases as shortages develop [8]. - The global Debt/GDP ratio is at an all-time high, with countries likely to alleviate debt issues through currency depreciation against gold, supporting higher gold prices [8]. - Trust in U.S. institutions, including the Federal Reserve, is declining, which historically correlates with rising gold prices [8]. - The Trump administration's desire for a lower dollar is evident, with the dollar index declining by about 10% in 2025, enhancing gold's performance in dollar terms [8]. - Gold remains inexpensive relative to the U.S. monetary base, with the value of gold owned by the U.S. government representing only 15% of the monetary base, suggesting significant upside potential [9]. Group 2: Fund Performance and Strategy - The Appleseed Fund Institutional Class generated a 19.14% absolute return over the 12 months ending September 30, 2025, outperforming the Morningstar Global Markets Index [12]. - The fund has been positioned for an inflationary, slow-growth economy, with a cautious approach that has limited investment returns during a strong stock market rally [12]. - The fund's current asset allocation favors sectors such as consumer staples, healthcare, and agriculture, with increased exposure to companies with non-U.S. dollar cash flows [15].

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The dollar index (DXY00) on Tuesday fell by -0.05%.  The dollar was under pressure on Tuesday as signs of weakness in the US labor market have bolstered the outlook for the Fed to keep cutting interest rates after ADP reported employers cut jobs this month. Losses in the dollar were limited by Tuesday's news that the Nov NAHB housing market index unexpectedly rose to a 7-month high.  Also, Tuesday's slide in stocks boosted some liquidity demand for the dollar. US weekly initial unemployment claims were 23 ...

Summary of Moody's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Moody's Corporation (NYSE: MCO) - **Event**: Info Services Track of the Ultimate Service Investor Conference - **Date**: November 18, 2025 Key Points Industry Insights - **M&A Activity**: There has been a significant increase in M&A activity in the second half of the year, contrary to initial expectations. This includes both strategic and sponsor-backed M&A, which positively impacts issuance volumes [7][10] - **Economic Growth**: Economic growth has slowed but remains better than market expectations, contributing to a favorable environment for debt issuance [7][8] - **Default Rates**: Default rates are slightly above long-term averages but have been decreasing, which is conducive for issuance [8] - **Issuance Trends**: The strongest issuance has been in the corporate segment, particularly in investment-grade and leveraged finance [8] Financial Performance - **Revenue Growth**: Moody's anticipates medium-term organic revenue growth targets of high single digits to low double digits, with a focus on areas with strong growth potential [18][19] - **Refinancing Needs**: A significant amount of debt issued over the past five years will need refinancing, which supports future issuance [11][12] AI and Technology - **AI Opportunities**: The company views AI as a significant opportunity to monetize proprietary data and analytics, enhancing customer engagement and expanding use cases [20][21][26] - **Digital Fulfillment**: Moody's is developing a digital fulfillment model to better serve customers and monetize content across various platforms [30][31] Market Dynamics - **Investor Sentiment**: There is growing interest among investors regarding the credit quality of private credit funds, indicating a shift in focus towards understanding credit risk [48][59] - **Partnership with MSCI**: The collaboration aims to provide Moody's modeled credit ratings to investors in private credit, enhancing their understanding of credit risk [49][50] Challenges and Considerations - **Two-Speed Economy**: The U.S. economy is experiencing a two-speed dynamic, with disparities in growth across different sectors, particularly between the AI-driven economy and traditional sectors [15] - **Structured Finance Outlook**: There has been a modest reduction in the outlook for structured finance and public category issuance, attributed to slower growth in consumer finance [14][15] Strategic Focus - **Investment Areas**: Moody's plans to invest in segments with the strongest growth potential, including banking, lending, and insurance [19][38] - **Proprietary Data Utilization**: The company emphasizes the value of its proprietary data in various applications, including risk assessment and credit modeling [37][40] Conclusion - Moody's is positioned to leverage its proprietary data and analytics capabilities to navigate the evolving market landscape, particularly in the context of increasing M&A activity and the integration of AI technologies. The focus on understanding credit risk in private credit markets presents a significant opportunity for growth and engagement with investors [58][59]