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“比08年更糟糕”!分析:未来两年德国企业破产数量将继续创新高
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-06-05 09:28
Core Insights - A wave of corporate bankruptcies is sweeping across Germany, threatening 210,000 jobs, potentially more severe than the 2008 financial crisis [1][2] Group 1: Bankruptcy Trends - Allianz Trade's analysis predicts a significant increase in corporate bankruptcies in Germany, with cases expected to rise by 11% to approximately 24,400 in 2025, and further to 25,050 in 2026 [2] - In 2024, large corporate bankruptcies reached a record high of 87, a 36% increase from the previous year, with these companies generating a total revenue of €17.4 billion, marking a 55% year-on-year surge [2] - The first quarter of 2025 saw 16 large German companies, each with revenues exceeding €50 million, file for bankruptcy, which, despite being three fewer than the previous year, is still double the number from the first quarter of 2023 [2] Group 2: Industry Impact - The most affected sectors include textile retail, automotive supply, and healthcare, with three hospitals and three large textile companies filing for bankruptcy in the first quarter of 2025, alongside two automotive suppliers and two chemical companies [3] - The ongoing economic downturn and uncertainties from tariff policies are expected to lead to further large-scale bankruptcies in 2025, causing significant losses and potential supply chain disruptions [4] Group 3: Expert Opinions - Jürgen Philippi, a veteran auctioneer with 30 years of experience, asserts that the current situation is worse than during the 2008 financial crisis, with an increasing number of industries affected and a declining willingness among buyers to rescue struggling companies [5][6] - Philippi notes that management teams are increasingly reluctant to continue operating distressed companies, citing high tax burdens and excessive bureaucracy as major deterrents [6]