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宏观日报:农业上游夏粮生产良好-20250718
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-18 03:05
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The overall grain production in the year has a good foundation. Summer grain production achieved stable yields and a bumper harvest, with a national summer grain output of 299.48 billion catties, the second - highest in history after last year [1]. - The retail price threshold for the super - luxury car consumption tax has been adjusted to 900,000 yuan (excluding VAT) [1]. - Guangzhou is soliciting opinions on the implementation measures for converting commercial personal housing loans to housing provident fund personal housing loans, with different measures based on the housing provident fund personal housing loan rate [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs A. Mid - level Event Overview - **Production Industry** - The scope of super - luxury cars subject to consumption tax has been adjusted to include vehicles with a retail price of 900,000 yuan (excluding VAT) and above of various power types [1]. - Summer grain production overcame drought in some areas, achieving stable yields and laying a solid foundation for annual grain production [1]. - **Service Industry** - Guangzhou is seeking public opinions on the implementation measures for converting commercial personal housing loans to housing provident fund personal housing loans, with different control measures based on the loan - to - deposit ratio [2]. B. Industry Overview - **Upstream** - International oil prices are fluctuating [3]. - Egg prices are rising [3]. - **Mid - stream** - The operating rates of polyester and PX are stable [4]. - **Downstream** - The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities are stable at a low level [5]. - The number of domestic flights during the summer vacation has increased [5]. C. Industry Credit Spread Tracking - Different industries have different credit spread values and trends. For example, the credit spread of the real estate industry decreased from 101.86 last week to 99.89 this week, with a quantile of 2.70 [48]. D. Key Industry Price Index Tracking - Various industries have different price trends. For instance, the spot price of corn in the agricultural industry was 2327.1 yuan/ton on July 17, with a year - on - year decrease of 1.15%, while the spot price of eggs was 5.8 yuan/kg, with a year - on - year increase of 4.91% [49].
关注能源上游价格波动
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-04 06:31
Industry Overview Upstream - Energy: International oil prices rebounded year-on-year yesterday and have been in a volatile trend recently [2] - Agriculture: Egg prices continued to decline [2] Midstream - Chemical: The operating rates of PTA, PX, and polyester decreased [3] Downstream - Real Estate: The sales of commercial housing in first- and second-tier cities declined seasonally [4] - Service: The number of domestic flights increased during the summer vacation [4] Market Pricing - Agricultural credit spreads have rebounded slightly recently [5] Industry Credit Spreads | Industry | Last Year | One Quarter Ago | One Month Ago | Last Week | This Week | Percentile | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery | 102.36 | 80.56 | 60.94 | 57.09 | 25.81 | 0.00 | | Mining | 38.94 | 46.31 | 39.57 | 37.35 | 34.86 | 4.90 | | Chemical | 74.08 | 66.20 | 51.92 | 49.18 | 46.66 | 0.00 | | Steel | 46.13 | 55.63 | 46.92 | 47.48 | 45.28 | 8.10 | | Non-ferrous Metals | 45.99 | 55.48 | 52.12 | 49.42 | 47.24 | 7.80 | | Electronics | 65.47 | 73.03 | 65.42 | 54.62 | 52.29 | 1.90 | | Automotive | 62.40 | 48.88 | 41.44 | 39.92 | 37.08 | 0.00 | | Household Appliances | 44.95 | 48.00 | 46.60 | 47.10 | 45.67 | 11.10 | | Food and Beverage | 44.62 | 45.57 | 36.28 | 37.12 | 35.05 | 1.40 | | Textile and Apparel | 53.88 | 52.14 | 52.04 | 52.65 | 50.47 | 5.70 | | Light Industry Manufacturing | 51.66 | 200.14 | 149.91 | 146.32 | 140.66 | 7.10 | | Pharmaceutical Biology | - | 70.86 | 62.08 | 53.47 | 50.74 | 1.20 | | Necessities | 29.89 | 33.12 | 27.14 | 27.41 | 25.37 | 5.10 | | Transportation | 31.83 | 36.27 | 30.91 | 30.25 | 28.24 | 3.80 | | Real Estate | 232.48 | 146.23 | 101.32 | 100.80 | 95.16 | 0.50 | | Commercial Trade | 47.29 | 50.47 | 42.95 | 42.17 | 39.54 | 2.10 | | Leisure Services | 80.77 | 110.81 | 120.10 | 118.95 | 117.51 | 93.90 | | Banking | 31.25 | 27.05 | 18.83 | 18.64 | 15.98 | 1.30 | | Non-bank Finance | 30.86 | 34.30 | 29.98 | 30.08 | 27.97 | 5.00 | | Comprehensive | 72.39 | 48.02 | 42.55 | 41.37 | 39.32 | 0.40 | | Building Materials | 40.15 | 45.82 | 38.38 | 37.31 | 34.14 | 3.80 | | Building Decoration | 44.57 | 53.79 | 60.04 | 51.32 | 49.56 | 11.10 | | Electrical Equipment | 57.19 | 85.69 | 80.21 | 72.51 | 73.08 | 33.70 | | Machinery and Equipment | 34.79 | 43.22 | 43.32 | 44.40 | 43.66 | 24.20 | | Computer | 68.04 | 65.47 | 49.65 | 46.60 | 43.96 | 0.00 | | Media | 249.31 | 46.75 | 39.22 | 37.92 | 35.66 | 0.00 | | Communication | 35.73 | 32.75 | 24.50 | 29.10 | 29.42 | 8.50 | [47] Key Industry Price Indicators | Industry Name | Indicator Name | Frequency | Unit | Update Time | Value | YoY | 5-Day Trend | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot Price: Corn | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/3 | 2367.1 | 0.61% | - | | | Spot Price: Eggs | Daily | Yuan/kg | 7/3 | 5.6 | -3.46% | - | | | Spot Price: Palm Oil | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/3 | 8744.0 | 2.15% | - | | | Spot Price: Cotton | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/3 | 15199.8 | 1.30% | - | | | Average Wholesale Price: Pork | Daily | Yuan/kg | 7/3 | 20.3 | -0.10% | - | | | Spot Price: Copper | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/3 | 81021.7 | 2.71% | - | | | Spot Price: Zinc | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/3 | 22400.0 | 0.70% | - | | Non-ferrous Metals | Spot Price: Aluminum | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/3 | 20870.0 | 1.21% | - | | | Spot Price: Nickel | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/3 | 122933.3 | 0.41% | - | | | Spot Price: Aluminum | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/3 | 17100.0 | 0.16% | - | | Black Metals | Spot Price: Rebar | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/3 | 3104.0 | 1.43% | - | | | Spot Price: Iron Ore | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/3 | 720.2 | 0.62% | - | | | Spot Price: Wire Rod | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/3 | 3292.5 | 1.54% | - | | | Spot Price: Glass | Daily | Yuan/square meter | 7/3 | 14.0 | 0.94% | - | | Non-metals | Spot Price: Natural Rubber | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/3 | 13858.3 | -0.14% | - | | | China Plastic City Price Index | Daily | - | 7/3 | 825.5 | -0.44% | - | | Energy | Spot Price: WTI Crude Oil | Daily | US dollars/barrel | 7/3 | 67.5 | 3.90% | - | | | Spot Price: Brent Crude Oil | Daily | US dollars/barrel | 7/3 | 69.1 | 2.11% | - | | | Spot Price: Liquefied Natural Gas | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/3 | 4062.0 | 1.75% | - | | | Coal Price: Coal | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/3 | 727.0 | 0.14% | - | | Chemical | Spot Price: PTA | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/3 | 5031.3 | -1.02% | - | | | Spot Price: Polyethylene | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/3 | 7466.7 | -0.60% | - | | | Spot Price: Urea | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/3 | 1829.0 | 0.35% | - | | | Spot Price: Soda Ash | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/3 | 1252.5 | -6.36% | - | | Real Estate | Cement Price Index: National | Daily | - | 7/3 | 136.7 | -0.80% | - | | | Building Materials Composite Index | Daily | Points | 7/3 | 111.8 | 1.31% | - | | | Concrete Price Index: National Index | Daily | Points | 113 | 96.4 | -0.87% | - | [48] Policy Focus Production Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology focuses on promoting the high-quality development of the photovoltaic industry and aims to address low-price and disorderly competition [1] Service Industry - Shanghai plans to optimize the duty-free shopping environment for outbound tourists, aiming to increase the number of duty-free shops and consumption scale by 2027 [1]