Workflow
出口导向性行业
icon
Search documents
宏观快评:6月通胀数据点评:从实际库存角度观察PPI
Huachuang Securities· 2025-07-10 05:43
Group 1: Inflation Data Overview - In June, the CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, while the core CPI rose by 0.7%, up from 0.6% in the previous month[2] - The PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, worse than the expected decline of 3.2%[2] - The nominal GDP growth rate for Q2 is estimated at 4.4%, slightly down from 4.6% in Q1[3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI's decline is attributed to weak demand and delayed transmission of raw material prices to related industries[3] - The PPI's month-on-month decline was 0.4%, with domestic raw material prices contributing approximately 0.18 percentage points to this decline[5] - The increase in green electricity has led to a 0.9% month-on-month drop in electricity supply PPI[3] Group 3: CPI Insights - The CPI decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, with rental prices rising by 0.1%, lower than the 0.25% increase seen in the same period from 2015 to 2019[4] - Durable goods prices improved, with transportation prices down 0.4%, better than the average decline of 0.6% over the past three years[4] - Medical service prices have increased for three consecutive months by 0.3%, raising questions about the sustainability of this trend[4] Group 4: Inventory and PPI Relationship - Actual inventory growth has risen from 5.7% at the end of last year to 7.0% in May, indicating potential price pressures[6] - The mining and upstream manufacturing sectors have seen significant declines in actual inventory growth, impacting PPI positively when inventory levels drop[6] - In 39 comparable industries, 23 have higher inventory levels than last year, but only 8 exceed levels from the first half of 2015[7]