Group 1: Inflation Data Overview - In June, the CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, while the PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, exceeding expectations of a 3.2% decline[4] - The nominal GDP growth rate for Q2 is estimated at 4.4%, slightly down from 4.6% in Q1[5] - The GDP deflator index is projected to be around -0.9% for Q2, compared to -0.8% in Q1[5] Group 2: CPI and PPI Analysis - The core CPI rose by 0.7% year-on-year, up from 0.6% in the previous month[6] - The PPI's year-on-year decline widened from 3.3% to 3.6%, with production materials dropping by 4.4% year-on-year[35] - The PPI's month-on-month decline was 0.4%, consistent with the previous month[35] Group 3: Inventory and Price Dynamics - Actual inventory growth has increased from 5.7% at the end of last year to 7.0% in May, indicating potential price pressures[12] - The actual inventory growth in the mining and upstream manufacturing sectors has decreased significantly, impacting PPI positively when it approaches zero[13] - Among 39 comparable industries, 23 have higher inventory levels than last year, but only 8 exceed levels from the first half of 2015[17]

Group 1: Inflation Data Overview - In June, the CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, while the core CPI rose by 0.7%, up from 0.6% in the previous month[2] - The PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, worse than the expected decline of 3.2%[2] - The nominal GDP growth rate for Q2 is estimated at 4.4%, slightly down from 4.6% in Q1[3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI's decline is attributed to weak demand and delayed transmission of raw material prices to related industries[3] - The PPI's month-on-month decline was 0.4%, with domestic raw material prices contributing approximately 0.18 percentage points to this decline[5] - The increase in green electricity has led to a 0.9% month-on-month drop in electricity supply PPI[3] Group 3: CPI Insights - The CPI decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, with rental prices rising by 0.1%, lower than the 0.25% increase seen in the same period from 2015 to 2019[4] - Durable goods prices improved, with transportation prices down 0.4%, better than the average decline of 0.6% over the past three years[4] - Medical service prices have increased for three consecutive months by 0.3%, raising questions about the sustainability of this trend[4] Group 4: Inventory and PPI Relationship - Actual inventory growth has risen from 5.7% at the end of last year to 7.0% in May, indicating potential price pressures[6] - The mining and upstream manufacturing sectors have seen significant declines in actual inventory growth, impacting PPI positively when inventory levels drop[6] - In 39 comparable industries, 23 have higher inventory levels than last year, but only 8 exceed levels from the first half of 2015[7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the inflation data for June, highlighting the changes in CPI and PPI, and their implications for the economy, particularly in terms of GDP growth and price pressures across various sectors [3][14][25]. Group 1: June Price Data Summary - In June, the CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, while the core CPI rose by 0.7%, indicating a slight improvement in inflation after four months of negative values [3][18]. - The PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, which is a larger decline than the previous month's 3.3%, reflecting ongoing pressures in the manufacturing sector [3][25]. - The nominal GDP growth rate for the second quarter is estimated to be around 4.4%, slightly down from 4.6% in the first quarter [3][16]. Group 2: CPI Analysis - The CPI's year-on-year increase was driven by a narrowing decline in food and energy prices, with food prices improving from -0.4% to -0.3% and energy prices from -6.1% to -5.1% [18][19]. - The rental market saw a seasonal increase in demand, with rents rising by 0.1%, which is lower than the average increase of 0.25% during the same period from 2015 to 2019 [4][19]. - Medical service prices have risen for three consecutive months, indicating potential ongoing inflationary pressures in healthcare [4][27]. Group 3: PPI Analysis - The PPI's month-on-month decline of 0.4% was influenced by seasonal price decreases in domestic raw materials and increased green energy supply, which reduced energy prices [5][26]. - Specific sectors such as coal and electricity production experienced significant price drops, contributing to the overall PPI decline [5][26]. - The article notes that industries with high export ratios are facing price pressures due to a slowdown in global trade, impacting PPI negatively [5][27]. Group 4: Inventory Perspective on PPI - The actual inventory levels in various industries are crucial for understanding PPI trends, with high inventory levels typically exerting downward pressure on prices [6][9]. - As of May, the actual inventory growth rate in the mining and manufacturing sectors has decreased, which historically correlates with a potential upturn in PPI [6][9]. - The current inventory pressure is slightly higher than last year but significantly lower than in the first half of 2015, indicating a more favorable pricing environment for some sectors [7][12].