指数窄幅震荡，科技板块领涨。 马年A股实现平稳开局，经历连续两个交易日上涨后，周四指数小幅震荡回调，科技板块开始表现活跃，取代了前两 个交易日的涨价主题。相较节前的成交清淡，周四成交额已经温和回升到2.56万亿，显示节前落袋为安的部分投资者有资金回流股市的迹象。 后市展望： 春节长假期间三大事件驱动，节后行情有望平稳运行。春节长假期间影响市场的重大事件主要是三个：1）美国对等关税被裁定违法； 2）中东局势紧张；3）科技产业催化密集。美国对等关税被裁定违法后，尽管特朗普宣布重新加征 15%的临时关税，但由于有时间限制，加之形成判例 后，未来对他国商品随意加征高额关税的政策将受到限制，贸易格局预计将出现明显好转，有利于市场信心提升。中东局势紧张，避险情绪短期内推高了 贵金属和原油价格，但从2025年的经验来看，受地缘因素推高的涨价行情持续时间并不长，该事件对市场的压制作用有可能被高估。科技产业催化剂密 集，包括机器人、中国大模型、存储芯片涨价等预计将对节后科技板块走势起到提振作用。综合判断，节后行情有望平稳运行，呈现稳中有升的格局，结 构性机会依然活跃。 热点板块： 2月主线仍是科技，但更聚焦基本面景气向上的科技 ...

马年平稳开局，涨价主题领涨。 马年首个交易日，A股实现平稳开局，除科创板指数外，多数宽基指数迎来开门红。相较节前的成交清淡，长假后首 个交易日交易量有所放大，显示节前落袋为安的部分投资者有资金回流股市的迹象。板块表现方面，长假期间期货价格大幅上涨的贵金属、石油石化板块 领涨，科技方向表现相对较弱。 后市展望： 春节长假期间三大事件驱动，节后行情有望平稳运行。春节长假期间影响市场的重大事件主要是三个：1）美国对等关税被裁定违法； 2）中东局势紧张；3）科技产业催化密集。美国对等关税被裁定违法后，尽管特朗普宣布重新加征 15%的临时关税，但由于有时间限制，加之形成判例 后，未来对他国商品随意加征高额关税的政策将受到限制，贸易格局预计将出现明显好转，有利于市场信心提升。中东局势紧张，避险情绪短期内推高了 贵金属和原油价格，但从2025年的经验来看，受地缘因素推高的涨价行情持续时间并不长，该事件对市场的压制作用有可能被高估。科技产业催化剂密 集，包括机器人、中国大模型、存储芯片涨价等预计将对节后科技板块走势起到提振作用。综合判断，节后行情有望平稳运行，呈现稳中有升的格局，结 构性机会依然活跃。 热点板块： 2月主线仍 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a narrow range of fluctuations, with technology hardware leading the gains, particularly in liquid cooling and computing chips, as the A-share market is influenced by external adjustments but is entering a trend of recovery [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market is currently in a state of low trading activity as it approaches the Spring Festival holiday, with major indices showing mixed performance and the main board experiencing slight increases [1] - The lower limit of the current fluctuation range has been largely established, indicating a short-term trend of market recovery [2] Group 2: Key Events Impacting the Market - The first major event impacting the market is the nomination of the new Federal Reserve Chairman, with the candidate being perceived as "hawkish," which could affect dollar liquidity; however, this view may be exaggerated due to the candidate's past positions and internal divisions within the Fed [2] - The second event is the perceived threat of AI models to traditional software; however, the relationship is more interdependent than antagonistic, with recent trading days showing a recovery in market sentiment [2] Group 3: Sector Focus - The primary focus for February remains on technology, particularly sectors with improving fundamentals, as the spring market rally continues [3] - Key areas of interest include: - The ongoing trend in AI hardware, with a significant increase in token usage for major AI models, suggesting a peak in AI applications by 2026 [3] - The trend towards domestic semiconductor production, with attention on semiconductor equipment, wafer manufacturing, materials, and IC design [3] - The growth in demand for new energy materials driven by both domestic and international storage needs, leading to supply shortages and price increases expected to continue until 2026 [3] - The innovative drug and CXO sectors are entering a growth phase after four years of adjustment, with significant growth anticipated in 2025 and a continued upward trend into 2026 [3]

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown weakness again, with more stocks declining than rising, influenced by adjustments in overseas markets, particularly in the technology sector [1] - The recent adjustment in the A-share market is seen as a short-term phenomenon, with expectations that it will soon enter a recovery phase as market panic has already been sufficiently reflected [1] - The nomination of the Federal Reserve Chair is perceived as overhyped, with the potential impact on market liquidity being limited due to uncertainties surrounding the implementation of proposed policies [1] Group 2 - The technology sector remains the main focus for February, with an emphasis on technology companies that show positive fundamental trends, following a strong performance in January [2] - The AI hardware industry is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with significant increases in the usage of AI models, indicating a peak in AI applications by 2026 [2] - The trend towards domestic semiconductor production is gaining momentum, with attention on semiconductor equipment, wafer manufacturing, materials, and IC design [2] - The demand for new energy materials is rising due to rapid growth in domestic and overseas energy storage needs, leading to supply shortages and price increases expected to continue until 2026 [2] - The innovative drug and CXO sectors are entering a recovery phase after four years of adjustment, with positive net profit growth observed since Q3 2024, and a fundamental turning point anticipated in 2025 [2]

Group 1 - The market has stabilized after a significant adjustment, with over 4800 stocks rising on Tuesday, indicating a recovery in market sentiment [1] - The initial decline was triggered by concerns over the Federal Reserve chair nominee, but this impact is considered limited and a one-time shock [1] - The market is expected to enter a recovery phase, as the fears surrounding the nominee are seen as exaggerated, with the potential for a rebound in A-shares [1] Group 2 - The main focus in February remains on technology, particularly sectors with improving fundamentals, as the spring market rally continues [2] - Key areas of interest include AI hardware, with a significant increase in token usage indicating a peak in AI applications by 2026 [2] - The trend towards semiconductor localization is ongoing, with attention on semiconductor equipment, wafer manufacturing, materials, and IC design [2] - The demand for new energy materials is rising due to rapid growth in domestic and overseas energy storage needs, with price increases expected to continue until 2026 [2] - The innovative drug and CXO sectors are entering a recovery phase after four years of adjustment, with positive net profit growth observed since Q3 2024 [2]