Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views Overall The report analyzes various commodities in the breeding, livestock, soft commodities, and energy - chemical sectors, providing supply - demand analysis, price trend predictions, and investment strategies for each commodity. [1][6] Livestock and Soft Commodities - **Pig**: The supply of pigs is sufficient, and the speculative demand may support the pig price at the bottom. It is not recommended for farmers to short at present. Speculative clients can go long, and farmers are advised to sell at high prices. [1][2] - **Sugar**: Zheng sugar follows the weak oscillation of raw sugar. In the medium - long term, the main producing countries have an expected increase in production, presenting a near - strong and far - weak pattern. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options. [4][5] Energy - Chemical - **Crude Oil**: With OPEC+ increasing production and geopolitical uncertainties, the short - term oil price is supported, but it is under pressure in the medium - term. It is recommended to sell out - of - the money put options for SC2507. [6][7] - **PVC**: The supply of PVC is increasing, while the demand is weak, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to stop falling in the short - term, but the driving force for a significant increase is limited. It is recommended to close out short positions. [10][11] Summary by Commodity Pig - **Supply**: As of April 2025, the national sow inventory was 40.38 million, with a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. It is expected to remain stable or increase in May, and the supply of pigs is sufficient. [1] - **Demand**: The frozen product storage rate is at a historical low, and the demand is weak. The speculative demand may increase if the price drops, which will support the pig price. [2] - **Strategy**: Do not short for farmers; speculators can go long; farmers can sell at high prices. [2] Sugar - **International**: In the 2025/26 season, Brazil's production is affected by rainfall, while India and Thailand are expected to increase production, and the global sugar production is expected to increase by 8.6 million tons to 189.3 million tons. [4] - **Domestic**: The sales progress is accelerating, and the import is expected to increase. The short - term sugar price will be range - bound, and the long - term is in a near - strong and far - weak pattern. [5] - **Strategy**: Sell out - of - the money call options. [5] Crude Oil - **Supply**: OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July. The US shale oil production is limited, and the heavy - oil resources are tight. [6] - **Demand**: The demand from refineries is increasing, but the diesel market is not optimistic. The SPR demand of major oil - consuming countries is increasing. [8] - **Inventory**: The US commercial crude oil inventory has decreased, and the global oil inventory is expected to remain low in the second quarter. [8] - **Strategy**: Sell out - of - the money put options for SC2507. [7] PVC - **Cost**: The calcium carbide price in Inner Mongolia is stable, and the inventory is accumulating. [10] - **Supply**: The operating rate is increasing, and there will be new device production in June - July. [10] - **Demand**: The downstream stocking sentiment is weak, and the export has uncertainties. [11] - **Inventory**: The industry is in a state of destocking. [11] - **Strategy**: Close out short positions. [10]