Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 11 月 25 日星期二 研究员：李方磊 从业资格：F03104461 交易咨询资格：Z0021311 联系方式：19339940612 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 昨日 SR601 合约收盘价 5370 元/吨，日涨幅 0.32%。夜盘收于 5377 元/吨；SR605 合约收盘价 5319 元/吨，日涨幅 0.32%。夜盘收于 5319 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 1.昨日 ICE 原糖主力合约收盘价 14.85 美分/磅，日涨幅 0.54%。 2.昨日广西白糖现货成交价为 5374 元/吨，下跌 5 元/吨；广西新糖报价 5590~5650 元/吨，个别集团下调 60 元/吨；云南制糖集团陈糖报价 5350~5400 元/吨，新糖报 价 5300~5500 元/吨，下调 70 元/吨；加工糖厂主流报价区间为 5750~5890 元/吨， | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 农林畜 | 白糖 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Angel Yeast (SH 600298) held its 10th eighth board meeting on November 21, 2025, to discuss the proposal for increasing registered capital in its subsidiary in Egypt [1] - For the year 2024, Angel Yeast's revenue composition is as follows: yeast and deep processing products account for 71.42%, food raw materials for 9.45%, sugar production for 8.32%, others for 7.69%, and packaging for 2.69% [1] - As of the report date, Angel Yeast has a market capitalization of 33.8 billion yuan [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state, with poor operability on the current market [1] - Pulp: ☆☆☆, same as cotton [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆, same as cotton [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆, same as cotton [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆, same as cotton [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for an upward trend but poor operability on the market [1] - Natural rubber: ★☆☆, same as 20 - rubber [1] - Butadiene rubber: ★☆☆, same as 20 - rubber [1] Core Viewpoints - The prices of different soft commodities show different trends. Some are in a state of range - bound, some are expected to be weak, and some show signs of super - decline and rebound. The investment strategies vary from commodity to commodity, with some suggesting temporary waiting and some suggesting attention to arbitrage opportunities [2][3][6] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose today, with the mainstream basis of cotton spot remaining stable. New cotton is concentrated on the market, and demand is average, putting pressure on prices. However, the spot price is generally stable, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to remain range - bound. As of November 13th, the national cumulative processed lint cotton was 3.907 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.67 million tons. The pure cotton yarn market has weak transactions, and the spinning mills' new orders are few. The US Department of Agriculture's November report is bearish, with the US cotton production significantly increased. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, although the sugarcane crushing volume and sugar yield decreased, the sugar - making ratio increased, maintaining high sugar production. In the Northern Hemisphere, India and Thailand are gradually starting to crush, and due to good weather, the sugar production is expected to increase year - on - year. In China, Zhengzhou sugar is running weakly. In October, China's sugar imports increased, and the market's trading focus has shifted to the next season's production estimate. It is expected that the sugar price will remain weak [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuates. The spot market has sporadic transactions of apples in the warehouse, with prices slightly rising. As of November 14th, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 7.3577 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10%. The market's trading logic has shifted from cold - storage inventory to sales expectations. There is a high divergence between bulls and bears, and attention should be paid to the inventory - removal situation [4] 20 - rubber, Natural rubber & Synthetic rubber - The futures prices of natural rubber RU, 20 - rubber NR, and butadiene rubber BR all rose today. The global natural rubber supply is in a high - yield period, but the Yunnan region in China has entered a production - reduction period. The demand is slowly weakening, the natural rubber supply is decreasing, the synthetic rubber supply is increasing, and the spot inventory is rising. It is recommended to pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [6] Pulp - The pulp futures continued to fall today. As of November 13th, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 2.11 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 21.3%. The overseas broad - leaf pulp quotation is strong, but the downstream procurement intention is general. After the basis converges, the price has corrected. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Logs - The futures price fluctuates, and the spot price remains stable. In November, the New Zealand radiata pine quotation continued to rise, but the domestic spot price is weak, and the trader's import willingness is low. The port delivery volume is above 60,000 cubic meters, and the inventory is low. Low inventory supports the price, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]

证券代码：600251 证券简称：冠农股份（维权） 公告编号：临2025-060 新疆冠农股份有限公司 关于为控股子公司提供担保的进展公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： ● 担保对象及基本情况 ■ 一、担保情况概述 （一）担保的基本情况 为满足子公司的生产经营需要，新疆冠农股份有限公司(以下简称"公司")为子公司提供担保的具体情况 如下： 1、公司与中国农业银行股份有限公司铁门关兵团分行(以下简称"农行铁门关兵团分行")签署《保证合 同》，为绿原糖业在农行铁门关兵团分行的授信业务提供最高额为10,000万元的连带责任保证。 ■ 注：本次担保情况进展数据截至2025年10月31日。 ● 累计担保情况 3、担保金额：10,000万元 本月绿原糖业实际使用上述贷款500万元，公司按100%比例实际向其提供500万元担保。 2、公司与农行铁门关兵团分行签署《保证合同》，为冠农番茄在农行铁门关兵团分行的授信业务全额 提供最高额为9,000万元的连带责任担保。 本月冠农番茄实际使用上述贷款1,500万元， ...

iPhone 发布周期大变：每年可能会推出 6 款新机 曝华为将发布 AI 领域突破性技术 北京 6G 实验室多项进展公布 雷军连发多条微博：一辆车好看与安全不矛盾 Reno15 系列今日发布 Grok 5 或延期至明年发布 零跑提前完成本年销量目标 Android 微信更新：终于支持聊天备份至 U 盘 宇树王兴兴：未来 AI 将赋予机器人理解世界的能力 ✈️ 多家航司宣布：涉日本机票可免费退改 iPhone 发布周期大变：每年可能会推出 6 款新机 据《彭博社》记者 Mark Gurman 昨晚报道，苹果未来发布新 iPhone 的节奏将会发生明显变化。 其表示，明年开始，苹果发布 iPhone 的周期将会与此前爆料一样：2026 年发布 iPhone 18 Pro/Pro Max 以及全新折叠屏产品；而在六个月之后（即 2027 年），iPhone 18/18e 将会发布，而传闻的特别版 iPhone 也将在这一年发布，甚至还可能出现新款 iPhone Air。 对此，Gurman 表示，未来苹果将每年推出 5-6 款新机，并且该模式将会维持数年。 Gurman 指出，虽然现在的秋季 iPhone 新品季 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Short - term, the price is in a correction trend, pay attention to the risk of decline [12] - US Dollar Index: Short - term, it is expected to fluctuate [16] - US Stock Index Futures: Short - term, the pessimistic sentiment may ferment, the market will fluctuate and adjust, but maintain a bullish view overall [19] - Treasury Bond Futures: Short - term, the bond market will fluctuate, it is recommended to observe more and trade less [23] - Stock Index Futures: Allocate long positions in each stock index evenly [26] - Thermal Coal: The price is strongly supported, but there is regulatory pressure above 800 yuan, pay attention to the risk of price correction [27] - Iron Ore: The price center is gradually weakening, and it is expected to be weak in the short - term [31] - Palm Oil and Soybean Oil: For palm oil, the MPOB report is crucial; for soybean oil, focus on US bio - fuel policies and US soybean purchases [34] - Sugar: The Zhengzhou sugar futures will be mainly volatile in the short - term, and the 1 - 5 contract long spread can be held [39] - Cotton: In the short - term, it will fluctuate between 13300 - 13600 - 13800; in the long - term, it is cautiously bullish, wait for the opportunity to go long on dips [44] - Bean Meal: It is currently in a situation of "cost support below and supply - demand suppression above", and pay attention to actual soybean purchases and South American production forecasts [47] - Steel: In the short - term, consider the steel price to be in a weak and volatile trend [51] - Corn Starch: In the medium - long term, the spot rice - flour price difference is expected to shrink, it is recommended to trade in bands [53] - Red Dates: The market is in intense game, operate cautiously, and focus on the price game and purchase progress in the producing areas [56] - Corn: The 01 contract is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term, and rebound in the medium - long term; do not be overly optimistic about the far - month contracts [58] - Copper: Unilaterally, it is recommended to go long on dips; for arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see [63] - Polysilicon: In November, it enters the critical point of policy and fundamentals game. Consider shorting on rallies [66] - Industrial Silicon: It is more cost - effective to go long on dips, and take profit at high levels [68] - Lithium Carbonate: In the short - term, it will fluctuate within a range; in the medium - term, consider shorting on rallies [74] - Nickel: Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips after the inflection point of inventory accumulation [78] - Lead: Industrially, consider shorting on rallies in the medium - term; for spreads, wait and see; for internal - external spreads, consider long internal - short external spreads [80] - Zinc: Industrially, consider shorting on rallies in the medium - term, but wait and see in the short - term; for spreads, consider long spreads in the medium - term; for internal - external spreads, it has a certain profit - loss ratio [81] - EU Carbon Emissions: The EU carbon price will fluctuate in the short - term [83] - Crude Oil: The oil price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [86] - PTA: In the short - term, the futures will be volatile and strong, but be cautious about the upside space [88] - Bottle Chip: Consider shorting the far - month processing margin on rallies, and the absolute price follows the polyester raw materials [92] - Urea: It will fluctuate within the range of 1580 - 1780 yuan/ton, and adjust according to the actual spot feedback [94] - Container Freight Rate: In the short - term, the market will fluctuate, and continuously monitor the spot price changes [96] 2. Core Views - The US government shutdown shows signs of resolution, which may boost market risk appetite and weaken the US dollar index. The US stock index futures market sentiment has recovered, but the consumer confidence index has declined [14][16][19] - China's October export growth rate decreased significantly, but it is expected to have resilience in the future. The bond market is currently in a volatile state, and positive spread strategies can be considered [20][22][23] - Various commodities have different market situations. For example, the iron ore price is weakening, the palm oil market is waiting for the MPOB report, and the copper market is affected by macro - expectations and inventory structures [28][33][62] 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - In October, China's gold reserves increased by about 0.93 tons. The US consumer confidence index declined in November, inflation expectations slightly rose, and the short - term gold price continued to fluctuate [10][11] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The Fed needs to weigh various factors in the next interest - rate decision. The potential agreement to end the US government shutdown is being reached, and the US dollar index is expected to weaken in the short - term [13][15][16] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The Fed should act cautiously as the interest rate approaches the neutral level. The US government shutdown shows signs of resolution, but the consumer confidence index is close to a record low. The short - term market will fluctuate and adjust [17][18][19] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - China's October inflation data was slightly better than expected, but the export growth rate decreased significantly. The bond market is worried about the fund fee rate new regulations, and it is currently in a volatile state [20][22][23] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China has suspended some export control measures. The A - share market has shown a stable volume and rising price, and it is recommended to evenly allocate long positions in each stock index [24][25][26] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Thermal Coal) - In November, the thermal coal price has risen, and it is expected to be strong, but there is regulatory pressure above 800 yuan [27] 3.2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - A South African iron ore mine will be temporarily closed, but it will not affect global supply. The iron ore price is weakening, and the inventory is expected to increase [28][29][31] 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Brazil's soybean planting progress is slower than last year and the five - year average. The palm oil market is waiting for the MPOB report, and the soybean oil market is concerned about US bio - fuel policies [32][33][34] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil's sugar export reached a new high in October. The new sugar production in Guangxi will start later, and the Zhengzhou sugar futures will be mainly volatile in the short - term [36][38][39] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - China's textile and clothing export decreased in October. The cotton picking progress is fast, and the Zhengzhou cotton futures will fluctuate in the short - term and be cautiously bullish in the long - term [40][42][44] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Bean Meal) - China has restored the soybean import qualification of three US companies. The domestic soybean import is abundant, and the oil mill's开机 rate is expected to rise [45][46][47] 3.2.7 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Some areas in Hebei have lifted the heavy - pollution weather emergency response. The steel price is in a weak and volatile state, and more market - oriented production cuts are needed [48][50][51] 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The starch sugar industry's开机 rate has increased. The starch enterprise is profitable, and the inventory pressure is acceptable [52] 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The red date price in the Hebei market is weak and stable. The new jujubes are about to be harvested, and the market game is intense [54][56] 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The feed enterprise's corn inventory days have increased, and the deep - processing enterprise's inventory has decreased slightly. The 01 contract is expected to be weak in the short - term and rebound in the medium - long term [57][58] 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Chile's copper export increased in October. The copper price is affected by macro - expectations and inventory structures, and it is recommended to go long on dips [59][62][63] 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - A company has reduced its stake in Tianhe光能. The polysilicon spot price is under pressure, and it is recommended to short on rallies in November [64][65][66] 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The Sichuan and Yunnan silicon enterprises'开机 rate is weak. The industrial silicon price may fluctuate, and it is recommended to go long on dips [67][68] 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A company has won a large lithium project contract. The lithium demand is strong, but the supply is also increasing. The short - term price will fluctuate, and consider shorting on rallies in the medium - term [69][72][74] 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia plans to complete the feasibility study of 18 downstream projects in December and has stopped approving some nickel intermediate product plants. The nickel price is affected by market sentiment and fundamentals, and pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips [75][77][78] 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead is at a discount. The recycled lead industry is in the stage of large - scale resumption of production, and the short - term supply and demand will be strong. Consider shorting on rallies in the medium - term [79][80] 3.2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc is at a premium. The LME zinc may face a short - squeeze risk, and the domestic zinc inventory has decreased. Consider shorting on rallies in the medium - term [81] 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price is affected by weather and power - price policies and will fluctuate in the short - term [82][83] 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US oil rig count remains unchanged. The US will exempt Hungary from sanctions on importing Russian oil. The oil price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [84][85][86] 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot price has increased, and the futures market is affected by supply - side factors. The short - term futures will be volatile and strong, but be cautious about the upside space [87][88] 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chip) - The bottle chip factory's export price is stable. The supply is stable, the demand is in the off - season, and consider shorting the far - month processing margin on rallies [91][92] 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - India has issued a new urea import tender. The urea futures have rebounded due to export policy changes and replenishment demand. It will fluctuate within a certain range [93][94] 3.2.23 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The new - shipbuilding market is active. The SCFI index has declined, and the container freight rate will fluctuate in the short - term, and monitor the spot price changes [95][96]

Core Insights - The 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations between China and Fiji marks a significant milestone and a new starting point for future cooperation [3] - Fiji's tourism industry serves as a window to understand the unique balance between tradition and modernity, as well as local and global connections [1] Group 1: Economic and Industry Development - Nadi Airport, as Fiji's largest international airport, has a maximum international passenger throughput of over 2.16 million, serving as a key hub for passenger and cargo flow in the Pacific region [1] - Lautoka, known as the "Sugar City," is transitioning from a sugar and port trade-based economy to a more diversified commercial and tourism-focused model, showcasing a vibrant local market with various products [2] - The interaction between tourism and commercial activities is crucial for Fiji's integration into the global economy, as evidenced by local employment opportunities created by international brands [2] Group 2: Infrastructure and Investment - The development model of the Nadi-Lautoka region provides a reference for industrial collaboration among Pacific island nations, with stable industries like sugar and port trade supporting growth in tourism and related sectors [2] - Chinese investment plays a significant role in Fiji's infrastructure development, exemplified by the North Island Road Upgrade Project, which spans 82 kilometers and connects multiple transport hubs, enhancing tourism and local economic growth [2]

Core Insights - On November 5, Yuegui Co., Ltd. saw a stock price increase of 5.17%, reaching 16.47 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 805 million CNY and a turnover rate of 11.27%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 13.21 billion CNY [1] Company Overview - Yuegui Co., Ltd. was established on October 5, 1994, and listed on November 11, 1998. The company is based in Liwan District, Guangzhou, Guangdong Province [1] - The main business activities include the production and sale of refined sugar (white sugar, brown sugar), pulp (unbleached pulp, bleached pulp), and paper (cultural paper, specialty paper), as well as the mining, processing, and sale of sulfur iron ore, sulfuric acid, reagent acid (refined sulfuric acid), iron ore powder (sulfur iron ore slag), and phosphate fertilizer (ordinary calcium phosphate) [1] Revenue Composition - The revenue composition of Yuegui Co., Ltd. is as follows: sulfur concentrate 37.15%, refined sugar 21.46%, pulp 13.92%, others 7.53%, sulfuric acid 5.79%, iron ore powder 4.79%, silver powder 2.30%, phosphate fertilizer 1.89%, lump ore 1.40%, trading business 0.97%, -3mm ore 0.96%, cultural paper 0.67%, amino sulfonic acid 0.58%, reagent sulfuric acid 0.50%, and exported hand-picked ore 0.08% [1] Shareholder Information - Tianhong Fund has a fund that ranks among the top ten circulating shareholders of Yuegui Co., Ltd. The Tianhong CSI Food and Beverage ETF (159736) entered the top ten circulating shareholders in the third quarter, holding 1.5864 million shares, which accounts for 0.35% of the circulating shares [2] - The Tianhong CSI Food and Beverage ETF (159736) was established on September 9, 2021, with a current scale of 5.525 billion CNY. Year-to-date, it has incurred a loss of 2.82%, ranking 4173 out of 4216 in its category; over the past year, it has lost 2.94%, ranking 3840 out of 3901; since inception, it has lost 29.3% [2] Fund Management - The fund manager of Tianhong CSI Food and Beverage ETF (159736) is Sha Chuan, who has been in the position for 7 years and 294 days. The total asset scale of the fund is 27.922 billion CNY, with the best fund return during the tenure being 126.66% and the worst being -69.41% [3]

Core Points - On November 4, Yuegui Co., Ltd. experienced a decline of 5.02%, with a stock price of 15.52 CNY per share, a trading volume of 710 million CNY, a turnover rate of 9.83%, and a total market capitalization of 12.448 billion CNY [1] Company Overview - Yuegui Co., Ltd. was established on October 5, 1994, and listed on November 11, 1998. The company is based in Liwan District, Guangzhou, Guangdong Province [1] - The main business activities include the production and sale of refined sugar (white sugar, brown sugar), pulp (unbleached pulp, bleached pulp), and paper products (cultural paper, specialty paper), as well as the mining, processing, and sale of sulfur iron ore, sulfuric acid, reagent acid (refined sulfuric acid), iron ore powder (sulfur iron ore slag), and phosphate fertilizer (ordinary calcium phosphate) [1] - The revenue composition of the main business is as follows: sulfur concentrate 37.15%, refined sugar 21.46%, pulp 13.92%, others 7.53%, sulfuric acid 5.79%, iron ore powder 4.79%, silver powder 2.30%, phosphate fertilizer 1.89%, block ore 1.40%, trading business 0.97%, -3mm ore 0.96%, cultural paper 0.67%, amino sulfonic acid 0.58%, reagent sulfuric acid 0.50%, and exported hand-picked ore 0.08% [1] Shareholder Information - Tianhong Fund has a presence among the top ten circulating shareholders of Yuegui Co., Ltd. The Tianhong CSI Food and Beverage ETF (159736) entered the top ten circulating shareholders in the third quarter, holding 1.5864 million shares, which accounts for 0.35% of the circulating shares [2] - The Tianhong CSI Food and Beverage ETF (159736) was established on September 9, 2021, with a current scale of 5.525 billion CNY. Year-to-date, it has incurred a loss of 1.58%, ranking 4173 out of 4216 in its category; over the past year, it has lost 0.1%, ranking 3819 out of 3896; and since inception, it has lost 28.4% [2]

Core Viewpoint - On October 30, Yuegui Co., Ltd. experienced a stock price increase of 5.57%, reaching 16.50 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 415 million yuan and a turnover rate of 5.75%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 13.234 billion yuan [1] Company Overview - Yuegui Co., Ltd. was established on October 5, 1994, and listed on November 11, 1998. The company is located in Liwan District, Guangzhou, Guangdong Province. Its main business includes the production and sale of refined sugar (white sugar, brown sugar), pulp (unbleached pulp, bleached pulp), and paper products (cultural paper, specialty paper), as well as the mining, processing, and sale of sulfur iron ore, sulfuric acid, reagent acid (refined sulfuric acid), iron ore powder (sulfur iron ore slag), and phosphate fertilizer (ordinary calcium phosphate) [1] - The revenue composition of Yuegui Co., Ltd. is as follows: sulfur concentrate 37.15%, refined sugar 21.46%, pulp 13.92%, others 7.53%, sulfuric acid 5.79%, iron ore powder 4.79%, silver powder 2.30%, phosphate fertilizer 1.89%, lump ore 1.40%, trading business 0.97%, -3mm ore 0.96%, cultural paper 0.67%, amino sulfonic acid 0.58%, reagent sulfuric acid 0.50%, and exported hand-picked ore 0.08% [1] Shareholder Information - Tianhong Fund has a presence among the top ten circulating shareholders of Yuegui Co., Ltd. The Tianhong CSI Food and Beverage ETF (159736) entered the top ten circulating shareholders in the third quarter, holding 1.5864 million shares, which accounts for 0.35% of the circulating shares. It is estimated that the fund has made a floating profit of approximately 1.3802 million yuan today [2] - The Tianhong CSI Food and Beverage ETF (159736) was established on September 9, 2021, with a current scale of 5.525 billion yuan. Since the beginning of the year, it has incurred a loss of 2.68%, ranking 4179 out of 4216 in its category; over the past year, it has lost 1.45%, ranking 3825 out of 3885; and since its inception, it has lost 29.2% [2]