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中信证券:商保创新药目录进入实质性落地阶段 建议关注镁信健康、思派等综合服务提供商
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-08-27 02:29
Core Viewpoint - The initiation of the commercial insurance innovation drug directory adjustment by the National Medical Insurance Administration marks a significant step towards the practical implementation of commercial insurance innovation drug coverage, potentially leading to a revaluation of the healthcare industry [1][2] Group 1: Investment Opportunities - The healthcare industry is expected to experience a "Davis Double Hit," with a restructured valuation system due to the introduction of the commercial insurance innovation drug directory [1] - Three main investment themes are suggested: 1. Innovative drugs and medical devices, which are likely to benefit from increased payment amounts from commercial insurance [1] 2. Comprehensive service providers that enhance insurance companies' product design capabilities and negotiation power for medical products [1][2] 3. Differentiated medical terminals that could open up future growth opportunities and elevate valuation levels [1] Group 2: Market Growth Projections - From 2023 to 2030, the payment amount from commercial health insurance for innovative drugs and medical devices is projected to grow from 7.3 billion to 126.2 billion, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 50.3% [1] - The introduction of the commercial health insurance directory is expected to increase the usage rate of innovative drugs and medical devices in hospitals, thereby encouraging upstream innovation [1] Group 3: Comprehensive Service Providers - Comprehensive service providers are anticipated to benefit from the commercial insurance innovation drug directory by offering solutions such as clinical value analysis and marketing to insurance companies, as well as consulting and medical inquiry services to insurance clients [2] - Companies like Sipai Health (00314) and Shanghai Pharmaceuticals (601607) with its subsidiary Meixin Health are highlighted as potential beneficiaries [2] Group 4: Multi-layered Payment System - The expansion of commercial health insurance is expected to enhance China's multi-layered payment system, unlocking potential in diverse medical needs that were previously limited [2] - New payment sources are likely to emerge for medical terminals and pharmacies, creating future growth opportunities for medical service companies and the pharmacy sector [2]