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中信建投:贵金属高位震荡消化波动率 价格上行趋势不改
智通财经网· 2026-02-12 00:13
Group 1: Precious Metals - Precious metals experienced significant volatility this week due to panic triggered by Kevin Warsh's nomination, but the upward trend remains intact due to rising sovereign credit risks and geopolitical tensions [1][2] - The main silver futures price dropped from 32,000 CNY/kg to a low of 17,900 CNY/kg, with implied volatility remaining high despite a slight decline [2] - The World Gold Council reported that global physical gold ETF inflows reached $18.7 billion in January 2026, marking a record high for a single month, with total ETF holdings increasing by 120 tons to 4,145 tons [2] Group 2: Industrial Metals - Basic industrial metals are showing a positive trend supported by real demand from downstream buyers, despite a temporary adjustment following the precious metals' volatility [1][6] - Copper prices are testing the key support level of 100,000 CNY/ton, with global copper inventories rising to 1.11 million tons, indicating a potential inventory replenishment after the Lunar New Year [6] - Aluminum prices are supported at 23,500 CNY/ton, with global inventories at historical lows and high operating rates for electrolytic aluminum, suggesting potential for new highs post-holiday [6]