Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced a strong rebound after a brief adjustment, with a notable increase of $35, but faced a subsequent pullback, indicating a volatile trading environment around the $3400 mark [1][10]. Market Trends - Gold saw a minor adjustment of only $15 yesterday, followed by a V-shaped recovery today [3]. - The price surged to $3386 before retreating, suggesting a potential resistance level [4]. - Current focus is on the adjustment and rebound opportunities, particularly around the $3378 level [5]. - A breakthrough above previous highs indicates a target towards the $3400 resistance [6]. Support and Resistance Levels - The market is currently testing the $3378 resistance level, with potential support seen at $3350 [7][8]. - If the price continues to decline, a drop below $3350 could occur [9]. - The overall trend shows a four-month increase followed by a four-month consolidation phase, with the price oscillating around the $3300-$3400 range [10]. Economic Influences - Recent positive U.S. economic data, particularly in housing, has raised inflation expectations, impacting gold prices negatively [11]. - Political pressures from former President Trump on the Federal Reserve have also influenced market dynamics, contributing to gold's volatility [12]. - Upcoming economic data releases, including durable goods orders and consumer confidence, are expected to impact both the stock market and gold prices [13]. Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on entry and exit points to maximize profits, emphasizing the importance of experience and risk management [13]. - A successful trading strategy involves following experienced traders to achieve higher accuracy and lower risk [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since 2025, the sovereign credit environment in Asia has shown a structural differentiation trend, affected by multiple factors such as the spill - over effect of global tariff policies, geopolitical tensions, and internal growth momentum changes. The differences in policy responses, industrial structures, and external dependence among Asian countries have led to a continuous divergence in sovereign credit trends [6]. - In East Asia, the credit foundation is relatively solid, but external demand weakness and structural fiscal pressures are emerging, and the overall regional risk is rising. In Southeast Asia, there are opportunities for diversified development, but credit risks show a differentiated trend. In South Asia, the foundation is relatively weak, and the pressure of sovereign credit differentiation is increasing [6]. 3. Summary by Directory East Asia - China: Although the tariff war may be an important variable affecting China's economy in the short term, the rapid development of new drivers and increased policy efforts can help mitigate risks. With sufficient government fiscal space, abundant foreign exchange reserves, and a large net international investment position, China's sovereign credit risk outlook is stable. Under different scenarios of US tariff cancellation, the impact on China's exports and GDP varies. The tariff war may also promote China's R & D investment, industrial upgrading, and regional cooperation [7]. - Japan: Tariff shocks weaken Japan's slow economic recovery, the Japan - US game increases the uncertainty of the Bank of Japan's interest - rate hikes, and fiscal pressure intensifies, hindering Japan's fiscal consolidation. The sovereign credit risk outlook is negative. The US tariff policies have affected Japan's auto industry, exports, and domestic demand, and the IMF has lowered Japan's economic growth forecast. The Japan - US trade negotiation also adds to Japan's fiscal pressure [8][10][11]. - South Korea: Due to its high trade dependence on both China and the US, tariff policies will significantly impact South Korea's exports. With long - term political turmoil and "top - level" hollowing - out, there is high uncertainty in domestic demand recovery and policy implementation, and the sovereign credit risk outlook is negative. The IMF has lowered South Korea's economic growth forecast. The South Korean government has submitted a supplementary budget, which may increase the national debt and fiscal deficit rate, but the government debt risk is still controllable [16]. Southeast Asia - Overall situation: The regional centripetal force in Southeast Asia is increasing, and there are opportunities for diversified development under the great - power game. The deepening cooperation between China and ASEAN countries can mitigate external environment fluctuations and drive regional economic growth. However, some countries may face negative impacts from economic and geopolitical risk spillovers, and the sovereign credit risk shows a differentiated trend [20][21]. - Positive - potential countries: Malaysia, Indonesia, and Cambodia may have new development opportunities through regional economic and trade cooperation, which will boost their sovereign credit levels. For example, Malaysia's cooperation with China and Singapore can support its economy; Indonesia's large population and downstream integration strategy can drive economic growth; Cambodia's cooperation with China can enhance its geopolitical status and economic growth [22][23][24]. - Negative - potential countries: Thailand and the Philippines face downward pressure on sovereign credit. Thailand's economic structural problems and industrial upgrading lag may lead to a slowdown in economic growth under external shocks. The Philippines' geopolitical risks are rising due to its military cooperation with the US and internal political struggles, which will affect its economic and trade cooperation and fiscal policies [26]. South Asia - Overall situation: South Asia has experienced rapid economic growth, sufficient demographic dividends, and strong reform momentum, with deficit and debt burdens showing a high - level mitigation trend. However, the uncertainty of tariff policies may exacerbate the differentiation of credit risks among South Asian countries [2][28]. - India: India's strong economic growth, diversified economic structure, and strong external payment ability support its sovereign credit. The deepening cooperation with the US may mitigate tariff risks and enhance long - term economic growth potential. However, the India - Pakistan conflict may have a negative impact on India's sovereign credit [29]. - Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka: These countries are constrained by factors such as lagging industrial structure upgrading, high fiscal and debt pressures, and domestic and geopolitical conflicts. Tariff policies may significantly impact their pillar industries and increase social volatility risks. Global monetary policy fluctuations may also pose challenges to their economic recovery and debt repayment. Cooperation with China can help mitigate external risks [2][30].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a mixed sentiment in the U.S. Treasury market, with recent auction results showing strong demand for 10-year bonds despite ongoing concerns about long-term debt sustainability and rising yields [1][2][5] - The 10-year Treasury auction on June 12 revealed a bid-to-cover ratio of 20.5%, the highest since January, indicating robust domestic demand despite a slight decline in overseas participation [2] - The U.S. CPI data for May came in at 2.4%, lower than the expected 2.5%, alleviating inflation concerns and reducing short-term interest rate hike expectations, which contributed to a decline in Treasury yields across various maturities [3][5] Group 2 - Institutional investors are showing skepticism towards long-term U.S. Treasuries, with significant adjustments in their holdings, including a collective short position on 30-year bonds, which recently surpassed a 5% yield [5] - The U.S. fiscal deficit increased by $316 billion in May, bringing the total for the fiscal year to $1.36 trillion, a 14% increase from the previous year, raising concerns about the sustainability of U.S. debt levels [5] - Experts suggest that if the 10-year Treasury yield rises to 5%-6% or higher, it may prompt investors to favor U.S. Treasuries over other assets, although continued high borrowing could negatively impact the overall economy [6]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury's auction of $20 billion in 20-year bonds was disappointing, leading to a significant sell-off in long-term U.S. Treasuries and raising concerns about future financing costs and fiscal sustainability [1][5]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The U.S. stock market experienced a sharp decline, with the Dow Jones falling by 816.80 points (1.91%), the Nasdaq down by 270.07 points (1.41%), and the S&P 500 dropping by 95.85 points (1.61%), marking the worst single-day performance for the indices since April 21 [2]. - The rise in bond yields, particularly the 10-year Treasury yield reaching 4.61% and the 30-year yield surpassing 5%, has put pressure on stock valuations and increased investor risk aversion [1][2]. Group 2: Economic Concerns - Market sentiment is affected by uncertainties surrounding U.S. fiscal policy, including tariff issues and budget disputes, which have led to a lack of confidence in long-term fiscal sustainability [2][3]. - The ongoing concerns about the U.S. fiscal deficit and the government's ability to support its debt issuance are central to current market anxieties, with implications for economic growth [3][5]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Impacts - Retail sector performance has been weak, exemplified by Target's disappointing earnings report, which caused its stock to drop by 5.21%, contributing to the overall market decline [3]. - The technology sector saw mixed reactions, with Alphabet's stock rising over 2.7% at one point, but overall market sentiment was dampened by concerns regarding fiscal sustainability and bond market performance [3]. Group 4: Alternative Investments - The U.S. dollar showed signs of weakness, with the ICE Dollar Index falling by 0.52%, while gold and Bitcoin prices increased by 0.97% and 0.03%, respectively, indicating a shift towards alternative assets as investors seek to hedge against sovereign credit risks [4].

Group 1 - The overall CPI for February showed a moderate decline, which alleviated concerns about recession and did not lead to a re-evaluation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path, with the market still expecting a rate cut in June [1][3][28] - Gold and silver prices increased, with COMEX gold rising by 2.6% and silver by 4.41%, while SHFE gold and silver also saw gains of 2.28% and 3.85% respectively [2][16] - The copper market continued its upward trend, with COMEX copper prices increasing by 3.59% and SHFE copper by 2.72%, driven by supply tightness and production cuts from domestic smelting enterprises [2][5][28] Group 2 - The U.S. government faced another "shutdown" crisis, but a temporary funding bill was signed, leading to a surge in gold prices, which broke the $3,000 mark due to declining U.S. sovereign credit [4][14] - The copper concentrate market showed limited activity, with processing fees continuing to decline, and traders adopting a wait-and-see approach due to high copper prices [8][10] - COMEX gold inventory increased by approximately 670,000 ounces, while SHFE gold inventory remained stable, indicating a mixed supply situation in the precious metals market [22][24]