1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since 2025, the sovereign credit environment in Asia has shown a structural differentiation trend, affected by multiple factors such as the spill - over effect of global tariff policies, geopolitical tensions, and internal growth momentum changes. The differences in policy responses, industrial structures, and external dependence among Asian countries have led to a continuous divergence in sovereign credit trends [6]. - In East Asia, the credit foundation is relatively solid, but external demand weakness and structural fiscal pressures are emerging, and the overall regional risk is rising. In Southeast Asia, there are opportunities for diversified development, but credit risks show a differentiated trend. In South Asia, the foundation is relatively weak, and the pressure of sovereign credit differentiation is increasing [6]. 3. Summary by Directory East Asia - China: Although the tariff war may be an important variable affecting China's economy in the short term, the rapid development of new drivers and increased policy efforts can help mitigate risks. With sufficient government fiscal space, abundant foreign exchange reserves, and a large net international investment position, China's sovereign credit risk outlook is stable. Under different scenarios of US tariff cancellation, the impact on China's exports and GDP varies. The tariff war may also promote China's R & D investment, industrial upgrading, and regional cooperation [7]. - Japan: Tariff shocks weaken Japan's slow economic recovery, the Japan - US game increases the uncertainty of the Bank of Japan's interest - rate hikes, and fiscal pressure intensifies, hindering Japan's fiscal consolidation. The sovereign credit risk outlook is negative. The US tariff policies have affected Japan's auto industry, exports, and domestic demand, and the IMF has lowered Japan's economic growth forecast. The Japan - US trade negotiation also adds to Japan's fiscal pressure [8][10][11]. - South Korea: Due to its high trade dependence on both China and the US, tariff policies will significantly impact South Korea's exports. With long - term political turmoil and "top - level" hollowing - out, there is high uncertainty in domestic demand recovery and policy implementation, and the sovereign credit risk outlook is negative. The IMF has lowered South Korea's economic growth forecast. The South Korean government has submitted a supplementary budget, which may increase the national debt and fiscal deficit rate, but the government debt risk is still controllable [16]. Southeast Asia - Overall situation: The regional centripetal force in Southeast Asia is increasing, and there are opportunities for diversified development under the great - power game. The deepening cooperation between China and ASEAN countries can mitigate external environment fluctuations and drive regional economic growth. However, some countries may face negative impacts from economic and geopolitical risk spillovers, and the sovereign credit risk shows a differentiated trend [20][21]. - Positive - potential countries: Malaysia, Indonesia, and Cambodia may have new development opportunities through regional economic and trade cooperation, which will boost their sovereign credit levels. For example, Malaysia's cooperation with China and Singapore can support its economy; Indonesia's large population and downstream integration strategy can drive economic growth; Cambodia's cooperation with China can enhance its geopolitical status and economic growth [22][23][24]. - Negative - potential countries: Thailand and the Philippines face downward pressure on sovereign credit. Thailand's economic structural problems and industrial upgrading lag may lead to a slowdown in economic growth under external shocks. The Philippines' geopolitical risks are rising due to its military cooperation with the US and internal political struggles, which will affect its economic and trade cooperation and fiscal policies [26]. South Asia - Overall situation: South Asia has experienced rapid economic growth, sufficient demographic dividends, and strong reform momentum, with deficit and debt burdens showing a high - level mitigation trend. However, the uncertainty of tariff policies may exacerbate the differentiation of credit risks among South Asian countries [2][28]. - India: India's strong economic growth, diversified economic structure, and strong external payment ability support its sovereign credit. The deepening cooperation with the US may mitigate tariff risks and enhance long - term economic growth potential. However, the India - Pakistan conflict may have a negative impact on India's sovereign credit [29]. - Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka: These countries are constrained by factors such as lagging industrial structure upgrading, high fiscal and debt pressures, and domestic and geopolitical conflicts. Tariff policies may significantly impact their pillar industries and increase social volatility risks. Global monetary policy fluctuations may also pose challenges to their economic recovery and debt repayment. Cooperation with China can help mitigate external risks [2][30].

新华财经上海6月12日电（张天源）受10年期美国国债招标需求复苏，CPI数据低于预期等多因素影响，周三美国国债市场止跌回暖，10 年期美债收益率下行4.95个基点报4.420%，但部分机构投资者近期的交易行为显示市场对美国长期国债的未来仍存担忧。 美国财政部周三公布的数据显示，最近备受瞩目的10年期美债招标结果出人意料地显示了市场的强劲需求。该期10年期国债的中标收益 率为4.421%，低于拍卖前市场收益率约0.6个基点。此前有多家机构表示，本次美国10年期国债招标是重要的情绪测试。摩根大通就在招 标开始前警告，长期国债已非无风险资产，6月12日的390亿美元的招标或成市场"风暴眼"。 从历史数据来看，2020年1月至2025年5月，美国国债月度拍卖发行规模在9490亿至27120亿美元之间，期间呈现先上升后下滑然后再回升 的趋势，2024年达到27120亿美元的发行高峰。2025年1-5月，总拍卖发行规模117200亿美元，相较2024年同期增长0.10%。2023-2025 年，美国长债投标倍数波动下行，主权信用风险成为核心变量。2025年5月，穆迪下调美国主权评级、众议院通过特朗普减税法案、债务 限额悬 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury's auction of $20 billion in 20-year bonds was disappointing, leading to a significant sell-off in long-term U.S. Treasuries and raising concerns about future financing costs and fiscal sustainability [1][5]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The U.S. stock market experienced a sharp decline, with the Dow Jones falling by 816.80 points (1.91%), the Nasdaq down by 270.07 points (1.41%), and the S&P 500 dropping by 95.85 points (1.61%), marking the worst single-day performance for the indices since April 21 [2]. - The rise in bond yields, particularly the 10-year Treasury yield reaching 4.61% and the 30-year yield surpassing 5%, has put pressure on stock valuations and increased investor risk aversion [1][2]. Group 2: Economic Concerns - Market sentiment is affected by uncertainties surrounding U.S. fiscal policy, including tariff issues and budget disputes, which have led to a lack of confidence in long-term fiscal sustainability [2][3]. - The ongoing concerns about the U.S. fiscal deficit and the government's ability to support its debt issuance are central to current market anxieties, with implications for economic growth [3][5]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Impacts - Retail sector performance has been weak, exemplified by Target's disappointing earnings report, which caused its stock to drop by 5.21%, contributing to the overall market decline [3]. - The technology sector saw mixed reactions, with Alphabet's stock rising over 2.7% at one point, but overall market sentiment was dampened by concerns regarding fiscal sustainability and bond market performance [3]. Group 4: Alternative Investments - The U.S. dollar showed signs of weakness, with the ICE Dollar Index falling by 0.52%, while gold and Bitcoin prices increased by 0.97% and 0.03%, respectively, indicating a shift towards alternative assets as investors seek to hedge against sovereign credit risks [4].

Group 1 - The overall CPI for February showed a moderate decline, which alleviated concerns about recession and did not lead to a re-evaluation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path, with the market still expecting a rate cut in June [1][3][28] - Gold and silver prices increased, with COMEX gold rising by 2.6% and silver by 4.41%, while SHFE gold and silver also saw gains of 2.28% and 3.85% respectively [2][16] - The copper market continued its upward trend, with COMEX copper prices increasing by 3.59% and SHFE copper by 2.72%, driven by supply tightness and production cuts from domestic smelting enterprises [2][5][28] Group 2 - The U.S. government faced another "shutdown" crisis, but a temporary funding bill was signed, leading to a surge in gold prices, which broke the $3,000 mark due to declining U.S. sovereign credit [4][14] - The copper concentrate market showed limited activity, with processing fees continuing to decline, and traders adopting a wait-and-see approach due to high copper prices [8][10] - COMEX gold inventory increased by approximately 670,000 ounces, while SHFE gold inventory remained stable, indicating a mixed supply situation in the precious metals market [22][24]