1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas risk appetite has recovered, leading to a general rebound in major assets. In the domestic market, it has followed the overseas trend and continued to recover. The market is gradually recovering from the early - month decline, with short - term shock recovery and dominant structural opportunities [2][3]. - The adjustment of precious metal prices is not over yet, and they may show a wide - range shock trend in the short term [5]. - Copper prices are expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short term, and the 1 - month non - farm data to be announced tomorrow should be focused on [7]. - Aluminum prices are in a short - term shock adjustment due to seasonal supply - demand weakness [9]. - Alumina prices are expected to be in a shock - favorable trend as the supply pressure may decrease during the Spring Festival [10]. - Cast aluminum will maintain a shock trend due to the suspension of production during the Spring Festival and weak supply - demand [11]. - Zinc prices are expected to continue to be under pressure in the short term [13]. - Lead prices are expected to maintain a stable consolidation before the Spring Festival [15]. - Tin prices are expected to continue a weak rebound, but the rebound space is limited [16]. - Steel prices are expected to be in a weak shock in the short term, and the inventory accumulation and macro - policy trends should be focused on [17]. - Iron ore prices are expected to show a shock trend in the short term [19]. - Coking coal and coke prices are expected to show a shock trend in the short term [20]. - Bean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to show a shock trend in the short term [22]. - Palm oil prices are expected to be in a shock - adjustment operation in the short term [24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The ruling party in Japan won a landslide victory in the February House of Representatives election. The prime minister said that food tax cuts would be financed through non - tax revenues and subsidy reviews without issuing deficit - financing bonds. The Japanese stock market rose nearly 4%, and the yen appreciated 0.85% against the US dollar. The market risk appetite continued to recover, with US stocks rising across the board, the 10Y US Treasury yield rising to 4.19%, and gold and silver prices rebounding. Copper and oil prices continued to rise by more than 1%. This week, attention should be paid to the US January non - farm payrolls, CPI, and December retail data [2]. - Domestic: Last week was a vacuum period for economic data and policies. The domestic market followed the overseas trend and further recovered. The A - share market continued to recover on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4123 points. The market is gradually recovering from the early - month decline, driven by the rebound of overseas technology stocks and the return of pre - holiday long - position funds. It is expected to be in a shock - recovery state in the short term, with dominant structural opportunities. This week, attention should be paid to the January CPI and financial data [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - On Monday, international precious metal futures generally rose. COMEX gold futures rose 2.10% to $5084.20 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 8.00% to $83.05 per ounce. The rise was mainly due to the decline of the US dollar index and the increase in market risk - aversion sentiment caused by political changes in the UK. However, CFTC持仓 reports show that speculative funds have been continuously reducing their net long positions in gold and silver futures and options, especially in silver, where the net long positions have been reduced to a nearly one - year low. The adjustment of precious metal prices is not over yet, and they may show a wide - range shock trend in the short term [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai copper rebounded steadily, and LME copper rebounded to around $13000. The domestic electrolytic copper spot market trading improved, and downstream enterprises actively replenished stocks before the holiday. LME inventory rose to 184,000 tons, and COMEX inventory continued to rise to 590,000 tons. Economists expect the US January non - farm payrolls to increase by 55,000, and the unemployment rate to remain at 4.4%. If the non - farm report is better than expected, technology stocks are expected to continue to rise, which will support copper prices in the medium term. The Fed's interest - rate cut window may be after April. In the short term, the probability of large - scale quantitative tightening is low. From a fundamental perspective, the shortage pattern in the mining end remains, North American inventory continues to rise at a high level, and domestic consumption in traditional industries such as cables is weak. Copper prices are expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short term [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 23,540 yuan/ton, up 0.79%. LME aluminum closed at $3130 per ton, up 0.64%. The spot SMM average price was 23,400 yuan/ton, up 260 yuan/ton, with a discount of 170 yuan/ton. According to SMM, on February 9, the electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory was 857,000 tons, a net increase of 19,000 tons; the aluminum rod inventory in the domestic mainstream consumption areas was 286,500 tons, a net increase of 12,500 tons. The market is concerned about the upcoming US employment and inflation data. The overnight decline of the US dollar index boosted aluminum prices to rebound slightly. Fundamentally, the social inventory of aluminum ingots continues to increase significantly. Downstream enterprises have basically completed inventory replenishment before the Spring Festival, and consumption is expected to remain weak. After the Spring Festival, the maximum increase in aluminum ingot inventory is expected to exceed 1.1 million tons. Due to seasonal supply - demand weakness, aluminum prices are in a short - term shock adjustment [8][9]. 3.5 Alumina - On Monday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 2868 yuan/ton, up 1.45%. The national average spot price of alumina was 2646 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a premium of 26 yuan/ton. The FOB price of Australian alumina was $309 per ton, down $0.5 per ton. The warehouse receipt inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 243,000 tons, an increase of 24,626 tons, and the factory warehouse was 0 tons, unchanged. The alumina spot market is dull. Attention should be paid to the capacity changes on the supply side. Two alumina plants in Guangxi that previously cut production plan to resume production in the next two days. During the Spring Festival, due to transportation and holiday factors, some manufacturers may cut production, and the short - term supply pressure of alumina may decrease slightly, with a shock - favorable trend [10]. 3.6 Cast Aluminum - On Monday, the main contract of cast aluminum alloy futures closed at 22,615 yuan/ton, up 0.66%. The SMM spot ADC12 price was 23,650 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton. The Jiangxi Baotai spot ADC12 price was 23,000 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference of Shanghai machine - made aluminum was 2894 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed aluminum was 2736 yuan/ton, up 182 yuan/ton. The exchange inventory was 67,000 tons, a decrease of 621 tons. As the Spring Festival approaches, most cast aluminum enterprises plan to stop production from February 5 - 13 and resume production mainly after the eighth day of the first lunar month or after the Lantern Festival. The average shutdown period is about 2 days longer than last year. Due to the extended shutdown period and weak consumption, the supply - demand situation remains weak, and cast aluminum maintains a shock trend [11]. 3.7 Zinc - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc 2603 showed a weak shock during the day and the center of gravity shifted down at night. LME zinc first declined and then rebounded. In the spot market, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc in Shanghai was concentrated at 24,615 - 24,775 yuan/ton, at par with the 2603 contract. In the last trading week before the holiday, traders gradually took holidays, the spot quotes decreased significantly, but the quotes remained firm. Downstream enterprises were mostly on holiday, and the trading was light, with the premium in a shock. Orion Minerals' subsidiary Prieska Copper Zinc Mine (PCZM) signed a binding prepayment agreement with a wholly - owned subsidiary of Glencore, obtaining a $250 million prepayment financing. The project is expected to start production in the Uppers area 13 months after the completion of the financing交割 in late March, and the first batch of concentrates is expected to be produced in the first quarter of 2027. As of Monday this week, the social inventory was 148,500 tons, an increase of 14,600 tons compared with last Thursday. Overall, affected by the remarks that the Fed may not quickly shrink the balance sheet and the hint that the employment growth is lower than expected before the non - farm data, the US dollar was under pressure, but zinc prices showed little reaction. The number of domestic downstream enterprises on holiday increased, the operating rate of primary enterprises declined significantly, the social inventory accumulation accelerated, and the spot premium was weakly stable. At the same time, some domestic smelters carried out maintenance, and the refined zinc output decreased significantly month - on - month. The supply and demand were both weak. As the long holiday approaches, the demand for capital reduction increases, and zinc prices are expected to continue to be under pressure in the short term [12][13]. 3.8 Lead - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai lead 2603 first rose and then declined during the day and showed a strong shock at night. LME lead bottomed out and rebounded. In the spot market, most cargo - holders in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai regions completed inventory clearance last week, and the scattered quotes were rare. Some electrolytic lead plants offered quotes with a premium of 0 - 50 yuan/ton over the SMM1 lead average price for factory delivery. Most recycled lead enterprises suspended quotes, and a few recycled refined lead quotes were at a discount of 25 yuan/ton to a premium of 50 yuan/ton over the SMM1 lead average price for factory delivery. As of Monday this week, the social inventory was 49,900 tons, an increase of 9500 tons compared with last Thursday. Overall, the decline of the US dollar drove the non - ferrous metal sector to show a strong shock, and Shanghai lead stopped falling. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, both upstream and downstream of the industrial chain have gradually entered the holiday mode. The spot market quotes decreased significantly, and downstream battery enterprises also made few purchases. The supply and demand were both weak, and the social inventory continued to increase to 49,900 tons, suppressing lead prices. It is expected that Shanghai lead will have no trend performance before the festival and will maintain a consolidation rhythm after stabilization [15]. 3.9 Tin - On Monday, the main contract of tin 2603 rebounded during the day, and the center of gravity of the shock shifted slightly upward at night. LME tin rebounded. In the spot market, it was heard that the premium of small - brand tin over the March contract was about 1000 - 1500 yuan/ton, the premium of Yun - headed tin was about 1500 - 2000 yuan/ton, and the premium of Yunnan Tin was about 2000 - 2500 yuan/ton. As of last Friday, the operating rate of smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces was 68.1%, a weekly decrease of 1.24%. The social inventory was 9389 tons, a weekly decrease of 1454 tons. Overall, before the non - farm data, Hassett gave the market a "pre - warning", the market's expectation of a Fed interest - rate cut in June increased, the US dollar declined, the market risk appetite improved, and tin prices rebounded slightly following precious metals. Last week, downstream enterprises made more purchases at low prices, and the inventory decreased by 1454 tons, reducing the inventory pressure. However, as the Spring Festival holiday approaches and tin prices rebound, the spot trading has weakened, and the inventory is expected to increase again. There is no new news on the supply side, and the tin ore supply is slowly recovering. It is expected that tin prices will continue a weak rebound in the short term, but as the long holiday approaches, there is still a demand for capital risk - aversion reduction, and the rebound space is expected to be limited [16]. 3.10 Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Monday, steel futures showed a weak shock. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan billet was 2910 yuan/ton (unchanged), the Shanghai rebar quote was 3220 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3240 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton). As the Spring Festival approaches, the winter storage in each region has basically ended, merchants have gradually taken holidays, and the spot trading of construction steel has dropped to zero. The prices are basically stable and waiting for the recovery of post - holiday demand. In the spot market, the trading has stopped before the festival, waiting for the recovery of post - holiday demand. On the supply side, the number of steel mill maintenance before the festival has increased, and the steel output has decreased. Currently, the steel market shows a situation of weak supply and demand. It is expected to be in a weak shock in the short term, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation and macro - policy trends [17]. 3.11 Iron Ore - On Monday, iron ore futures showed a shock. In the spot market, the trading volume yesterday was 630,000 tons. The price of PB powder at Rizhao Port was 763 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan/ton), and the price of Super Special powder was 650 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan/ton). From February 2 to February 8, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 24.556 million tons, a decrease of 2.136 million tons compared with the previous period; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 23.613 million tons, a decrease of 1.234 million tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 12.640 million tons, a decrease of 247,000 tons. The global iron ore shipping volume was 25.353 million tons, a decrease of 5.593 million tons compared with the previous period. The shipping volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 19.489 million tons, a decrease of 5.721 million tons compared with the previous period. In the spot market, the trading rhythm at ports has slowed down, steel mills have basically completed inventory replenishment, the molten iron output is weakly stable, and the daily consumption of iron ore is continuously low. Attention should be paid to the impact of the post - holiday steel mill resumption expectation. On the supply side, the overseas shipping and arrival volume decreased week - on - week, and the port inventory is at a high level. It is expected to show a shock trend in the short term [18][19]. 3.12 Coking Coal and Coke - On Monday, coking coal and coke futures showed a shock decline. In the spot market, the price of main coking coal in Shanxi was 1328 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan/ton), the spot price of quasi - first - grade coke in Shanxi was 1470 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port was 1300 yuan/ton (unchanged). According to Mysteel, coal mines in the production areas have gradually taken holidays, the coking coal output has decreased, and the inventory has been transferred downstream. The mine inventory has decreased this week. In addition, the inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports decreased by 243,800 tons to 5.2361 million tons, while the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills nationwide increased by 98,400 tons to 8.242 million tons, and the total coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises increased by 676,000 tons to 13.0239 million tons, reaching a nearly two - year high. The comprehensive coking coal inventory increased by 505,600 tons week - on - week to 29.149 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.77%, reaching a new high in the past year. In the spot market, although the online auction non - successful rate has decreased, the market is in a wait - and - see mood, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, with prices under pressure. The production areas have gradually taken holidays, the coking coal market output has decreased, and the port inventory has decreased. The coking profit has recovered to some extent, but under the restriction of environmental protection policies, the production of coking enterprises is still restricted. The inventory of steel mills and coking enterprises is at a nearly two - year high, and the inventory replenishment has ended. It is expected to show a shock trend in the short term [20].