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前三季度GDP同比增长5.2%,为什么体感经济和统计数据有“温差”
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-20 11:45
文/耿朴凡 10月20日,三季度经济数据正式揭晓—— 初步核算,前三季度国内生产总值1015036亿元,按不变价格计算,同比增长5.2%。中国经济"稳"的格局、"进"的势头、"韧"的特性没有改变。 宏观数据亮眼的同时,不少普通人却在日常消费、就业、收入上感受到"寒意"。这种宏观数据与微观体感的"温差",背后是经济结构、统计方法和居民实 际体验的多重错位。 前三季度GDP达1015036亿元 实现全年目标仍有较多有利条件 国家统计局发布的数据显示,初步核算,前三季度国内生产总值1015036亿元,按不变价格计算,同比增长5.2%。分季度看,一季度国内生产总值同比增 长5.4%,二季度增长5.2%,三季度增长4.8%。从环比看,三季度国内生产总值增长1.1%。 来源:国家统计局 受多种因素共同作用,三季度GDP增速回落,但经济稳中有进发展态势没有变。三季度,我国经济总量达35.5万亿元,超过了全球第三大经济体2024年全 年经济总量。 普通大众为何有"体感温差" 背后原因并非数据失真 "为什么我和周围的人都感觉不到这样的经济增长?" 一边是宏观数据稳步增长,一边是部分人感受着消费乏力、就业承压的"体感温差"。 新 ...
科学客观看待我国当前经济发展态势|宏观经济
清华金融评论· 2025-10-02 08:57
Core Viewpoint - The overall assessment of China's economic situation is positive, with a focus on the need for a dialectical approach to understand the economic landscape, which shows differentiation but is generally improving and has a promising future [4]. Economic Performance - China's economy has shown resilience and stability, with key macroeconomic indicators such as economic growth, employment, prices, and international balance of payments performing well. The economic growth rate in the first half of the year was significantly higher than most economies, making China a stabilizing force in global economic growth [4]. - Exports have demonstrated strong resilience, with an export growth rate of 6.9% in the first eight months, particularly in new energy vehicles and integrated circuits, which saw growth rates exceeding 20% [4]. Innovation and Transformation - Innovation is highlighted as the primary driving force for development, with significant advancements in key technologies and a notable increase in high-tech manufacturing output, which is growing faster than overall industrial output [5]. - The transition from old to new economic drivers is accelerating, with a focus on digital transformation and intelligent upgrades in traditional industries [5]. Social and Economic Stability - The government has prioritized people's well-being, with per capita disposable income growth outpacing economic growth, and measures to reduce income disparity between urban and rural residents [6]. - Food and energy security have been reinforced, with stable grain production and effective management of energy supply [6]. Challenges and Risks - Despite positive trends, challenges remain, including external uncertainties, weak domestic demand, and difficulties faced by some enterprises, particularly in traditional sectors [5][6]. - There is a noticeable differentiation in economic performance across sectors, with industries leveraging technology experiencing better outcomes compared to those lagging in transformation [7]. Future Outlook - The potential for economic growth remains substantial, supported by strong R&D capabilities and a complete industrial system. The emphasis on a community of shared future enhances China's international influence [8]. - The leadership of the Communist Party and the advantages of the socialist system are seen as critical factors in ensuring stable economic progress [8].