交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 6 月 9 日 今日焦点 | 新能源行业 | 2025 | 下半年展望：不确定性下机遇仍存，把握 | 评级: | 领先 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 分红的稳定性 | 郑民康 | wallace.cheng@bocomgroup.com | | | 板块顺序：运营商>光伏玻璃>多晶硅>逆变器>电池片：首选中国电力（ 2380 HK/买入），亦看好股息政策在子行业中最优的京能清洁能源（579 HK/买入）。光伏板块建议 1Q25 盈利改善明显的福莱特（6865 HK/买入 ）。及协鑫科技（3800 HK/买入） 新能源运营商: 我们认为新能源运营商的中长期策略应有明显转变，股息 率及盈利稳利性是投资者短期较关心的因素。 光伏：我们预计产能出清仍将主要通过市场化手段完成， 2026 年行业有 望出现实质性反转。光伏玻璃板块目前盈利有明显好转，多晶硅板块颗 粒硅盈利优势凸显并有望继续扩大。 风电：我们预计风电 2025 年新增装机将同比增长 23%。唯过去装机年度 过后出现调整的可能性较高，同时亦取决于新政策后增量项目电价水平 再作考量 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to multiple companies in the renewable energy sector, including China Power (2380 HK), China Resources Power (836 HK), and GCL-Poly Energy (3800 HK) [2][4]. Core Insights - The renewable energy operators face both challenges and opportunities under new policies, with dividend levels showing relative certainty. The introduction of Document No. 136 in 2025 is expected to shift the long-term strategies of operators significantly [1][7]. - The solar photovoltaic (PV) industry is anticipated to experience a substantial capacity clearance, with stock prices declining, presenting opportunities for leading companies. The demand for solar PV is expected to remain strong in 2024, but a short-term adjustment in demand is likely following the end of the rush to install projects [17][20]. - Wind power installations are projected to grow by 23% in 2025, reaching 98 GW, but a slight decline is expected in 2026 due to adjustments in pricing mechanisms [4][6]. Summary by Sections Operators - Operators are expected to focus on maintaining dividend rates, with an average dividend yield of around 6% across the covered companies. The report highlights that operators with strong technical capabilities and scale advantages will be better positioned to adapt to market changes [11][14]. - The new pricing mechanism will require operators to optimize project management and respond to fluctuations in electricity prices [7][8]. Photovoltaic Industry - The report predicts that the global demand for solar PV will slow down in 2025, with a projected installation of approximately 270 GW in China, a 3% decrease year-on-year [22]. - The solar glass sector is expected to see a rebound in prices after a strong recovery, but future supply may decrease due to regulatory requirements for capacity replacement [37][38]. Wind Power - The report anticipates that the wind power sector will see a significant increase in new installations in 2025, but a potential decline in 2026 due to the new pricing mechanism and market adjustments [4][6]. - The profitability of wind turbine manufacturers will depend on their ability to deliver projects in offshore and international markets [4][6]. Financial Metrics - The report provides detailed financial metrics for various companies, including earnings per share, price-to-earnings ratios, and dividend yields, indicating a generally favorable outlook for operators in the renewable energy sector [2][4][14].