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交银国际每日晨报-20250609
BOCOM International· 2025-06-09 00:52
New Energy Industry - The report highlights that despite uncertainties, opportunities still exist in the new energy sector, particularly focusing on dividend stability [1] - The preferred investment order is operators > photovoltaic glass > polysilicon > inverters > battery cells, with China Power (2380 HK) and Jingneng Clean Energy (579 HK) being top picks [1] - The photovoltaic sector is expected to see significant earnings improvement in Q1 2025, with Fuyat (6865 HK) and GCL-Poly Energy (3800 HK) also recommended for investment [1] Wind Power - The report anticipates a 23% year-on-year increase in new wind power installations in 2025, although adjustments may occur post-installation [2] - A conservative estimate suggests a slight decline in new installations in 2026, contingent on new policy impacts and project pricing [2] Zhiwen Group - The company is projected to experience a revenue turning point in the second half of 2025, driven by accelerated overseas growth [3] - Revenue and adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 have been raised by 5% and 13% respectively, with a target price increase to $8.30 [3][4] - The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue of 2.52 billion yuan, exceeding market expectations by 4%, primarily due to a 72% year-on-year growth in overseas business [3] IBI363 by Innovent Biologics - Early clinical data for IBI363 in treating I/O resistant NSCLC shows promising results, with an overall response rate (ORR) of 26-37% and median progression-free survival (PFS) of 5.5-9.3 months [7][8] - The potential market for IBI363 is significant, especially given the limited effective therapies available for post-PD-(L)1 treatment [8] - The target price for IBI363 has been raised to 84 HKD, reflecting its strong market potential [8] Economic Data - Upcoming economic data releases include the Consumer Price Index and unemployment claims in the US, with expectations set for various metrics [9]
不确定性下机遇仍存,把握分红的稳定性
BOCOM International· 2025-06-07 13:20
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to multiple companies in the renewable energy sector, including China Power (2380 HK), China Resources Power (836 HK), and GCL-Poly Energy (3800 HK) [2][4]. Core Insights - The renewable energy operators face both challenges and opportunities under new policies, with dividend levels showing relative certainty. The introduction of Document No. 136 in 2025 is expected to shift the long-term strategies of operators significantly [1][7]. - The solar photovoltaic (PV) industry is anticipated to experience a substantial capacity clearance, with stock prices declining, presenting opportunities for leading companies. The demand for solar PV is expected to remain strong in 2024, but a short-term adjustment in demand is likely following the end of the rush to install projects [17][20]. - Wind power installations are projected to grow by 23% in 2025, reaching 98 GW, but a slight decline is expected in 2026 due to adjustments in pricing mechanisms [4][6]. Summary by Sections Operators - Operators are expected to focus on maintaining dividend rates, with an average dividend yield of around 6% across the covered companies. The report highlights that operators with strong technical capabilities and scale advantages will be better positioned to adapt to market changes [11][14]. - The new pricing mechanism will require operators to optimize project management and respond to fluctuations in electricity prices [7][8]. Photovoltaic Industry - The report predicts that the global demand for solar PV will slow down in 2025, with a projected installation of approximately 270 GW in China, a 3% decrease year-on-year [22]. - The solar glass sector is expected to see a rebound in prices after a strong recovery, but future supply may decrease due to regulatory requirements for capacity replacement [37][38]. Wind Power - The report anticipates that the wind power sector will see a significant increase in new installations in 2025, but a potential decline in 2026 due to the new pricing mechanism and market adjustments [4][6]. - The profitability of wind turbine manufacturers will depend on their ability to deliver projects in offshore and international markets [4][6]. Financial Metrics - The report provides detailed financial metrics for various companies, including earnings per share, price-to-earnings ratios, and dividend yields, indicating a generally favorable outlook for operators in the renewable energy sector [2][4][14].