01 中国创新药全球化进程 迈入新阶段 近年来，中国创新药产业正经历从"跟跑"到"并跑"乃至"领跑"的历史性跨越。随着国内生物医药研发能力 的系统性提升，以及全球医药产业链分工的深化调整，中国创新药企业的对外授权交易（Business Development，简称BD）已成为衡量产业国际竞争力的核心指标之一。2025年至2026年初，这一趋势呈现 出明显的加速态势，交易规模屡创新高，交易结构持续优化，标志着中国创新药出海已从早期的单一产品 授权向平台化、体系化合作演进。 从产业逻辑来看，BD交易的密集落地并非偶然现象。一方面，国内创新药企业在抗体药物偶联物 （ADC）、双特异性抗体、小分子靶向药物等前沿领域已建立起差异化的技术平台优势，研发效率与成本 控制能力的国际比较优势日益凸显；另一方面，全球大型制药企业面临专利悬崖压力与研发回报率下降的 双重挑战，对中国创新资产的配置需求显著增强。这种供需两侧的深度耦合，构成了当前BD市场高热运行 的基本面支撑。 撰文：Pharmadeep 编辑：维他命 PART. PART. 02 近期二级市场表现 与BD交易特征分析 2026年1月，医药生物板块整体跑赢沪深300指 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 105.00, indicating a potential upside of 17.1% from the current price of HKD 89.65 [1][9]. Core Insights - The company has successfully secured a strategic partnership with Eli Lilly, marking its seventh collaboration and validating its antibody technology platform. This partnership is expected to significantly enhance the company's overseas development of early-stage assets and increase global commercialization certainty [2][7]. - The company anticipates strong commercial growth driven by its comprehensive pipeline in 2026, with projected product revenue growth of approximately 45% year-on-year to RMB 12.505 billion in 2025. Key products are expected to continue providing stable support for revenue growth [7][12]. - The management expects that three key assets, IBI363, IBI343, and IBI324, will enter global Phase III clinical trials, with IBI363 alone projected to contribute over USD 40 billion to the market [7][12]. Financial Forecast Changes - Revenue projections for 2025 have been revised down to RMB 12.505 billion, a decrease of 37.1% from previous estimates, while 2026 revenue is expected to rise to RMB 18.450 billion, an increase of 26.7% [3]. - Gross profit for 2025 is now forecasted at RMB 10.713 billion, down 41.0%, with a gross margin of 85.7%. For 2026, gross profit is expected to increase to RMB 16.064 billion, with a gross margin of 87.1% [3]. - The net profit forecast for 2025 has been significantly reduced to RMB 1.055 billion, a decrease of 87.9%, while 2026 net profit is projected to rise to RMB 3.502 billion, reflecting a 37.8% increase [3]. Stock Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 17.57%, with a 52-week high of HKD 107.00 and a low of HKD 35.50, indicating strong market interest [6][11]. Valuation Model - The DCF valuation model estimates the equity value at RMB 161.238 million, translating to a per-share value of HKD 105.00, based on projected free cash flows and a WACC of 9.9% [8][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 105.00, indicating a potential upside of 17.1% from the current price of HKD 89.65 [1][9]. Core Insights - The company has successfully secured a strategic collaboration with Eli Lilly, marking its seventh major partnership and validating its antibody technology platform. This collaboration is expected to significantly enhance the company's overseas development of early-stage assets and increase global commercialization certainty [2][7]. - The company anticipates strong commercial growth driven by its oncology and comprehensive pipeline in 2026, with projected product revenue growth of approximately 45% year-on-year to RMB 12.505 billion in 2025. Key products are expected to continue supporting revenue growth [2][7]. - The report highlights the potential market space for key assets, estimating over USD 60 billion, with IBI363 alone contributing more than USD 40 billion. The company is also expected to introduce 8-10 new molecules annually from its innovation pipeline starting in 2026 [2][7]. Financial Forecast Changes - Revenue projections for 2025 have been revised down to RMB 12,505 million, a decrease of 37.1% from previous estimates. However, the 2026 revenue forecast has been increased by 26.7% to RMB 18,450 million, and the 2027 forecast has been raised by 18.6% to RMB 20,830 million [3]. - Gross profit for 2025 is now expected to be RMB 10,713 million, down 41.0% from prior estimates, while the gross profit margin is projected to be 85.7% [3]. - The net profit forecast for 2025 has been significantly reduced to RMB 1,055 million, reflecting an 87.9% decrease from previous estimates, but is expected to rise to RMB 3,502 million in 2026 and RMB 4,341 million in 2027 [3]. Stock Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 17.57%, with a 52-week high of HKD 107.00 and a low of HKD 35.50, indicating strong market interest [6][12]. Valuation Model - The discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation model estimates the equity value at RMB 161,238 million, translating to a per-share value of HKD 105.00, based on projected free cash flows and a WACC of 9.9% [8][15].

Core Viewpoint - The strategic collaboration between Innovent Biologics and Eli Lilly marks their seventh partnership, focusing on the development of innovative drugs in oncology and immunology, with significant financial implications for Innovent [2][5]. Financial Aspects - Innovent will receive an upfront payment of $350 million and may earn up to approximately $8.5 billion in milestone payments related to research, regulatory, and commercialization achievements [2]. - The company’s stock price rose by 7.42% to HKD 85.4 per share, with a market capitalization nearing HKD 150 billion as of February 9 [3]. Historical Context - The partnership dates back to 2015, yielding successful products such as the PD-1 antibody, Sintilimab, and the GLP-1 receptor agonist, MaShidu [4]. - Sintilimab has been a cornerstone of Innovent's commercialization strategy, rapidly entering the domestic market and becoming a key product in their portfolio [4]. Strategic Development - The collaboration emphasizes a new model of business development, focusing on entirely new targets and molecules rather than existing products [2][5]. - Innovent will lead the projects from drug discovery to clinical validation in China, while Eli Lilly retains global rights outside of Greater China [5]. Industry Trends - The partnership reflects a broader trend where multinational pharmaceutical companies are increasingly interested in early-stage innovative assets from Chinese firms, moving away from established clinical pipelines [6]. - This shift is seen as a necessary evolution in the research paradigm, allowing for systematic validation of technologies across multiple targets while managing costs [6]. Future Outlook - Innovent's product revenue is projected to reach approximately CNY 11.9 billion in 2025, marking a 45% year-on-year increase, with significant contributions from its oncology and chronic disease product lines [8]. - The company has three core assets expected to enter or are already in international Phase III clinical trials, with a combined market potential exceeding $60 billion [8][9]. Product Pipeline - The new generation IO therapy, IBI363, is anticipated to have a market potential exceeding $40 billion, while IBI343 and IBI324 are also expected to contribute significantly to revenue, with market potentials of over $8 billion and $15 billion, respectively [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between Innovent Biologics and Eli Lilly marks the seventh partnership since 2015, focusing on the global development of innovative drugs in oncology and immunology, showcasing Innovent's strong R&D capabilities recognized by multinational corporations [1] Event - On February 8, Innovent Biologics announced a strategic partnership with Eli Lilly to advance the global development of innovative drugs in oncology and immunology, with Innovent leading the projects from drug discovery to clinical concept validation in China [1] Financial Details - The collaboration includes an upfront payment of $350 million and a total package worth $8.85 billion, with Innovent retaining all rights in Greater China while Eli Lilly obtains exclusive global development and commercialization rights outside this region [1] - Innovent is eligible for up to approximately $8.5 billion in milestone payments related to R&D, regulatory, and commercialization, along with a tiered sales share from net sales outside Greater China [1] R&D Capacity - The partnership indicates high recognition of Innovent's early-stage R&D and concept validation capabilities in oncology and immunology by Eli Lilly, which has a strong portfolio in these areas [2] - Innovent has 17 commercialized drugs, with one product under NMPA review, four new drug molecules in Phase III or critical clinical studies, and 15 additional new drug candidates in clinical research [2] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - Innovent's extensive layout in oncology is expected to enhance revenue and reduce marginal costs, while the company also has competitive products in metabolic, autoimmune, and ophthalmology fields [2] - A global strategic partnership with Takeda, valued at $11.4 billion, is anticipated to accelerate the introduction of next-generation IO and ADC therapies to the global market, marking a significant step in Innovent's internationalization [2] - Revenue projections for Innovent from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 11.968 billion yuan, 22.804 billion yuan, and 26.572 billion yuan, with net profits of 0.886 billion yuan, 6.679 billion yuan, and 8.004 billion yuan respectively [2] - The company’s reasonable market value is estimated at 232.7 billion HKD, with a target price set at 136.12 HKD, maintaining a "buy" rating [2]

Core Viewpoint - CICC has raised the revenue forecast for Innovent Biologics (01801) for 2025 by 5.0% to 12.6 billion yuan, and the net profit forecast for 2026 by 274% to 6.68 billion yuan due to the impact of the Takeda collaboration, while introducing a net profit forecast of 4.14 billion yuan for 2027 [1] Group 1 - The company forecasts a product revenue of approximately 11.9 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of about 45%, with Q4 product revenue expected to be around 3.3 billion yuan, showing over 60% growth year-on-year, aligning with CICC's expectations [2] - The company's product revenue has surpassed 10 billion yuan for the first time, driven by innovative products, with the oncology product portfolio expanding to 13 products by 2025 [3] - The company’s innovative product, Sintilimab, is expected to generate a revenue of 551 million USD in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 5% [3] Group 2 - Seven products have been newly included in the national medical insurance catalog, which will be implemented starting in 2026, indicating clear performance drivers for 2026 [4] - The company expects the synergistic effects of its products to further manifest in 2026, with strong commercial momentum anticipated [4] - The company has reached a 10 billion USD collaboration with Takeda regarding IBI363 and is expected to see significant profit increases in 2026 due to upfront payments [5]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus has shifted back to company fundamentals in the China Pharma and Biotech sector, moving away from last year's emphasis on sector beta. [1] - Key companies discussed include BeOne, Kelun-Biotech, and Innovent, which have garnered significant investor attention. [1] BeOne - **Market Cap and Sales Potential**: BeOne's current market cap is $41 billion, with investors optimistic about Brukinsa's potential, expecting peak sales of $5 billion, which some consider conservative. [2] - **IRA Price Cut Exemption**: Brukinsa was not included in the recent IRA price cut announcement, leading to an expected sales upside of 10%-20%, potentially increasing peak sales to $6 billion by 2033. [2][6] - **Sonro Concerns**: Investors are worried about the lack of detailed data on Sonro's efficacy. However, the company believes these concerns are minor, as Sonro's trial results are comparable to venetoclax, which has a significant market presence. [2][9] Kelun Biotech - **Sales Expectations for sac-TMT**: Expectations for sac-TMT's sales range from $4-5 billion to over $10 billion, with Bernstein estimating $8 billion. [3] - **Phase 3 Data Catalyst**: The first global Phase 3 data release in 2026 is anticipated to be a major catalyst for stock performance. [3] - **Market Positioning**: Kelun's strategy focuses on squamous and PD-L1 high patients, avoiding direct competition with Dato-DXd, which targets non-squamous patients. [3][23] - **Market Size for 2L+ EGFRm**: The market for 2L+ EGFRm NSCLC is expected to be smaller than 1L TKIs, but projections indicate reasonable sales of CNY 4 billion. [3][25] Innovent - **Sales Focus**: Investors are primarily interested in mazdutide and IBI363, with concerns about pricing pressures due to competition from GLP-1 drugs. Sales estimates for mazdutide are expected to drop from CNY 3 billion to 2 billion in 2026. [4] - **Long-term Sales Estimates**: Despite short-term pressures, long-term estimates for mazdutide remain at CNY 5.4 billion and 10 billion at peak. [4] - **New Trials and Data**: Innovent is initiating six non-China Phase 1 trials in 2025, with expected readouts for new drugs, including IBI3003, which has received Fast Track designation from the FDA. [4] Financial Metrics - **Valuation and Performance**: The conference included a detailed ticker table with performance metrics for various companies, indicating significant upside potential for stocks like Kelun-Biotech and Innovent. [5] Additional Insights - **Regulatory and Competitive Landscape**: The discussions highlighted the importance of regulatory developments, such as the IRA price cuts, and competitive dynamics in the oncology market, particularly concerning CLL and AML treatments. [2][12][19] - **Clinical Trial Data**: The efficacy of treatments like Sonro and sac-TMT was compared against existing therapies, emphasizing the need for robust clinical data to support market positioning. [9][25] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, focusing on the companies and industry dynamics discussed.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Healthcare in China - **Focus**: Innovative drug industry and its global ambitions amid domestic challenges [1][11] Core Insights and Arguments - **Globalization Impact**: China's innovative drug industry is gaining global attention, driven by numerous license-out deals and strong clinical data. The industry is expected to leverage cost efficiency, a comprehensive supply chain, and favorable policies to continue its growth [1][11] - **Domestic Market Pressure**: The Basic Medical Insurance (BMI) system is under financial strain, with a 2.0% income growth in the first 10 months of 2025 and a significant surplus decline from RMB52.0 billion in 2024 to RMB27.3 billion in 2025. This indicates a challenging environment for domestic pharmaceutical sales [2] - **Regulatory Changes**: Chinese regulators have implemented transformative policies to control healthcare costs while promoting innovation. These include measures that compress margins for generic drugs but support R&D for innovative drugs [1][30] Investment Opportunities - **Favorable Segments**: The report favors biotech, pharmaceuticals, and Contract Research and Development Manufacturing Organizations (CRDMO) for investment, anticipating positive catalysts such as more out-licensing deals and accelerated progress of licensed assets [3] - **Company Recommendations**: - **Innovent**: Preferred for its co-development model with Takeda - **BeOne**: Noted for its leadership in BTK with Brukinsa - **Hansoh**: Expected solid growth from innovative drugs like almonertinib - **Huadong**: Defensive play with potential from GLP-1 franchise - **SNIBE**: Upgraded to Buy with a price objective of RMB74.0, reflecting strong growth potential [3][6] Clinical Trials and Cost Advantages - **Cost Efficiency**: Clinical trials in China are significantly cheaper than in developed markets, with over 40,000 clinical sites available, which enhances recruitment speed and reduces costs [14][16] - **Regulatory Framework**: Improvements in regulatory processes and a growing number of new drug IND applications (1,263 in 2024) indicate a robust environment for drug development [16][17] Supply Chain and Talent Pool - **Integrated Supply Chain**: China has established a comprehensive supply chain for drug R&D, ranking highly in various stages of drug development, including API manufacturing and clinical trials [21][24] - **Talent Availability**: The country produces over 5 million STEM graduates annually, providing a vast talent pool for the pharmaceutical industry [26] Policy Environment - **Transformative Policies**: Key policies include joining the International Council for Harmonisation (ICH), implementing Value-Based Procurement (VBP) for generics, and introducing measures to support innovative drug development [30][31] Patent Cliff Risks for MNCs - **Patent Expirations**: Major multinational corporations face significant patent expirations over the next few years, with key drugs contributing over 25% of their revenue at risk [32][35] Additional Insights - **Market Dynamics**: The shift towards innovative drugs is reshaping the competitive landscape, with companies needing to adapt to cost-containment measures affecting generic drug margins [30] - **Investment Risks**: The domestic market's pressure and the sustainability of the BMI system pose risks to pharmaceutical companies operating primarily in China [2][3]

Core Insights - The biopharmaceutical industry is at a pivotal moment as it transitions from the "14th Five-Year Plan" to the "15th Five-Year Plan," emphasizing the balance between technological innovation and value-driven growth [1] - The recent surge in the innovative drug sector, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving a 14-day winning streak and the Hong Kong innovative drug index rising by an average of 12% over three days, indicates strong market support for innovative pharmaceuticals [4] - The Chinese government has reinforced its commitment to the innovative drug sector through policies like "Full Chain Support for Innovative Drug Development," which is expected to create significant industry opportunities [4] Industry Growth Drivers - Innovative drugs are recognized as a critical new productive force, comparable in priority to AI and other emerging technologies, with substantial government backing [4] - In 2025, China signed over 150 new business development (BD) agreements in the innovative drug sector, totaling more than $130 billion, a 150% increase from 2024, with upfront payments reaching $7 billion [5] - The anticipated "milestone" rewards from these agreements could exceed $30 billion in the next 3-5 years, fostering the growth of China's innovative drug market despite inherent development risks [5] Market Dynamics - The global biopharmaceutical development landscape is revitalizing due to expiring drug patents and a favorable interest rate environment, with major pharmaceutical companies increasing their R&D investments [6] - The emergence of blockbuster innovative drugs in China, such as AK112 and SKB264, showcases the potential for significant sales in the global market, with some products challenging established leaders [6][7] - The international geopolitical climate is expected to enhance China's economic prospects, leading to increased capital inflows into A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, signaling the onset of a major bull market [7] Future Outlook - The period between 2026 and 2027 is anticipated to yield significant clinical breakthroughs in innovative drugs, potentially leading to substantial stock price revaluations [7] - The next 20 years are projected to be a prosperous era for China, with substantial returns expected for those following technological innovations in the biopharmaceutical sector [8]

Summary of China Pharma and Biotech Conference Call Industry Overview - **Sector Outlook**: The China Pharma and Biotech sector is experiencing a positive outlook with valuations returning to a more rational range compared to mid-2025. Most stocks have seen a decline of 20-30%, and major healthcare indices are below 2023 post-COVID reopening levels, providing a solid base for growth in 2026 [1][10][11]. - **Growth Drivers**: Accelerated growth and quality improvement in the sector are anticipated, driven by the unique advantages of Chinese drugmakers that support globalization and sector re-rating trends [1][10]. Key Insights on China Biopharma - **R&D Efficiency**: China's early R&D model has matured, with clinical trials costing 60-70% less than in the U.S. Preclinical research averages 1.5 years, and Phase 1 trials take less than 2 years, significantly faster than global standards [2]. - **Global Pipeline Contribution**: China's share of the global biopharma pipeline has increased to 43% in 2025, up from 38% in 2024. However, the percentage of First-in-Class (FIC) drugs remains lower than in developed markets (17% vs. 37%) [2]. - **Out-licensing Trends**: The trend of outbound deals is expected to continue, with innovative models like platform deals and co-development agreements emerging. These deals are seen as avenues for revenue maximization, although they may not impact stock prices as significantly as in 2025 [2][13]. Stock-Specific Catalysts for 2026 - **Oncology Developments**: A significant number of trials (20+) in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) are expected to report data, with key players including Kelun, Innovent, and Akeso. New modalities such as multispecific antibodies and ADCs are also anticipated to provide proof of concept data [3]. - **GLP-1 Drugs**: HRS-9531 (Hengrui) and TG103 (CSPC) have submitted New Drug Applications (NDA) in the second half of 2025, with expected approvals in late 2026 or 2027 [3]. Top Stock Picks - **Innovent**: Anticipated strong sales growth for mazdutide and updates on IBI363 trials across various indications [4]. - **Kelun**: Expected to report results from its first global Phase 3 trial and domestic sales growth of approximately 40% [4]. - **Hansoh & Hengrui**: Projected recurring license income to contribute 10-15% of revenue, with net income growth of 20-30% CAGR from 2024 to 2027 [4]. Investment Ratings - **Outperform Ratings**: Hansoh, Kelun-Biotech, Innovent, and Jiangsu Hengrui are rated as outperform [6]. - **Market-Perform Ratings**: Akeso, BeOne Medicines (BeiGene), Sino Biopharm, Zai Lab, and CSPC are rated as market-perform [6]. Financial Projections - **Stock Performance**: The report includes a detailed table of stock ratings, target prices, and financial projections for various companies, indicating significant upside potential for selected stocks [5][9]. Additional Insights - **Market Dynamics**: The sector has transitioned from exuberance to equilibrium, with a notable correction in stock prices since October 2025, following a period of rapid growth [10][11]. - **Approval Trends**: The number of innovative drug approvals by the National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) has accelerated, with 69 approvals in 2025, while the FDA remains receptive to Chinese drug candidates [33]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the positive outlook for the China Pharma and Biotech sector, the efficiency of R&D processes, stock-specific catalysts, and investment recommendations.