Core Insights - The article discusses the evolving landscape of the new tea beverage industry, emphasizing the importance of supply chain management as a core competitive advantage [9][11][13] - It highlights the trend of "chain-style development" in product offerings, focusing on combinations of tea with milk and fruit, while noting the lack of inherent product barriers [11][12] - The article also addresses the challenges and dynamics of pricing strategies between brands and supply chain companies, indicating a shift towards larger players dominating the market [41][39] Group 1: Supply Chain Dynamics - The core barrier in the new tea beverage industry lies in the supply chain rather than the products themselves, as individual consumers can replicate products but face higher costs and sourcing challenges [13][14] - Companies like Bangli leverage their comprehensive and flexible supply chain to offer a wide range of tea products and customized raw materials, which is a significant advantage over traditional tea businesses [16][17] - The supply chain's ability to lock in resources and stabilize costs is likened to a "futures business," where large-scale procurement ensures consistent product quality [24][26][27] Group 2: Product Development and Brand Strategy - Product design is identified as a critical area that brands must control, while non-core supply chain functions can be outsourced to specialized companies [33][34] - Bangli focuses exclusively on tea-related raw materials, enhancing its expertise and cost control in this area, while collaborating with various new tea brands [35][36] - The article suggests that successful brands will need to balance their product design capabilities with efficient supply chain partnerships to thrive in the competitive landscape [34][36] Group 3: Market Trends and Challenges - The new tea beverage industry is experiencing a rapid transformation characterized by price wars, where companies unable to sustain cost pressures may exit the market [41][42] - The article predicts a trend of larger companies acquiring smaller ones, driven by the need for scale and financial resources to manage supply chain complexities [41][42] - It emphasizes the necessity for companies to invest in production capabilities and technology to remain competitive in the evolving market [42][43]

Group 1: Baijiu Industry - The current PE-TTM for the baijiu sector is 19.31 times, which is at the 6.18% percentile over the past decade, indicating significant safety margins [1] - High-end baijiu brands like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye are expected to maintain market share through "price protection and volume control" strategies, with projected net profit growth rates of 13.3% and 12.7% for 2024 respectively [1] - Regional leaders such as Shanxi Fenjiu and Jinshiyuan are benefiting from channel penetration and the recovery of banquet scenarios, with sales growth expected to exceed 30% during the 2025 Spring Festival [1] Group 2: Consumer Goods - The beer sector continues to see high-end trends, with Qingdao Beer achieving an ASP of 4200 yuan per thousand liters and Yanjing Beer having over 25% revenue contribution from its U8 flagship product [3] - Functional beverages like Dongpeng Beverage, which holds a 31% market share, are rapidly expanding into coffee and energy tea, with a projected revenue growth of 45% year-on-year by Q4 2024 [4] - Health drinks such as Xiangpiaopiao's zero-sugar freeze-dried fruit tea have seen online sales double, with a projected PE of only 20 times in 2025 [5] Group 3: Snacks and Prepared Foods - Online sales for snack brands like Three Squirrels have surged, with a 200% year-on-year increase in GMV through Douyin, while Yanjinpuzi's quail egg product has annual sales of 1 billion [7] - The prepared food sector is benefiting from B-end restaurant recovery and C-end penetration, with companies like Anjifood seeing 30% of their revenue from prepared foods after acquiring Frozen Food Mr. [8] Group 4: Seasoning and Baking Supply Chain - Leading seasoning brands like Haitian Flavoring have reduced channel inventory to 2.5 months, while Qianhe Flavoring has over 50% revenue from zero-additive soy sauce, benefiting from restaurant recovery and household consumption upgrades [10] - Yeast leader Angel Yeast is experiencing over 25% growth in overseas revenue due to capacity release and cost reductions [11] - Innovations in raw materials are seen in companies like Lihai Foods, which has a 60% year-on-year increase in cream revenue, and Huirong Technology, with 30% of its plant-based cream revenue coming from exports [12] Group 5: New Tea Beverage Supply Chain - The IPO of Mixue Ice City has a significant impact, with a frozen capital of 1.77 trillion HKD, benefiting related A-share companies in the supply chain [14] - Companies like Anjifood and Xianle Health are positioned as suppliers of jam and frozen fruits, while Yudong Technology and Hexing Packaging are focusing on eco-friendly solutions and cost advantages in packaging materials [15][16] - The global expansion plan of Mixue, with 46,000 stores, could lead to a 30%+ increase in orders for supply chain companies [17] Group 6: Policies and Industry Trends - The Chinese government's "restore and expand consumption" policy is expected to result in over 300 billion yuan in consumer subsidies by 2025, directly benefiting the food and beverage sector [18] - Retail sales are projected to grow by 3.5% year-on-year in 2024, with health food categories (low-sugar/low-fat) expected to exceed 20% growth [19] - Valuation shifts are evident, with many sub-sectors like seasoning having a PE of 28 times compared to a historical average of 40 times, alongside noticeable foreign capital inflows [19]