行 业 及 产 业 农林牧渔 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 研究支持 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 胡静航 A0230524090002 hujh@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 2025 年 11 月 23 日 猪价低迷产能去化加快，关注宠食龙头成 长确定性 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 - 看好 —— 农林牧渔周观点（2025.11.17-2025.11.23） 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 ⚫ 本周申万农林牧渔指数下跌 3.4%，沪深 300 下跌 3.8%。个股涨幅前五名：中水渔业（61.0%）、荃银 高科（27.4%）、国联水产（22.5%）、獐子岛（14.7%）、永安林业（13.4%）。投资分析意见：猪价 低迷养殖亏损加剧，关注产能去化加速。肥猪供给压力仍大，猪价旺季不旺养殖亏损或进一 ...

Market Overview - On November 18, global financial markets experienced a collective decline due to multiple factors affecting market risk sentiment, with Hong Kong's three major indices showing weakness throughout the day. The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.72%, closing below the 26,000-point mark, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 1.65% and 1.93%, respectively [1][2]. Sector Performance - Concerns over overvaluation in artificial intelligence have led to a continued decline in technology stocks. The spot gold price briefly fell below $4,000, causing significant drops in gold and non-ferrous metal stocks, with Lingbao Gold experiencing a nearly 9% decline. The steel sector also faced notable declines due to significant price drops throughout the year [2][5]. - The steel sector led the declines, with China Hanking down over 9%, Maanshan Iron & Steel down over 7%, and several other steel companies experiencing declines of over 5%. A report from CITIC Construction indicated that the steel price is expected to decline significantly by 2025 due to supply-demand mismatches and weakened cost support [5][6]. - The gold sector saw substantial losses, with Lingbao Gold down nearly 9% and other gold mining companies also experiencing declines of over 5% [6][8]. - The lithium battery sector continued to decline, with major companies like Cai Ke New Energy and Zhong Chuang Innovation falling over 10% and 8%, respectively [10]. - The automotive sector faced a downturn, with sales data indicating a 0.8% year-on-year decline in retail sales for October, and a significant drop in November sales figures [11][12]. Investment Trends - Southbound funds recorded a net inflow of HKD 7.466 billion, with the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect seeing net purchases of HKD 2.745 billion and HKD 4.721 billion, respectively [15]. - Looking ahead, Guosen Securities noted that the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in December will set the tone for macro policies and key tasks for the following year, influencing investment strategies and stock valuations [17].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index (沪指) is experiencing strong fluctuations around the 4000-point mark, indicating a resilient A-share market as the year-end approaches[2] - Following the hawkish interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October, market expectations for a December rate cut have cooled, with the US dollar index briefly surpassing 100 points, leading to declines in major global stock markets[2] Economic Factors - Recent trade negotiations between China and the US have led to a consensus on tariff issues, which may improve trade relations and boost market risk appetite[2] - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in December is expected to set the tone for macroeconomic policies and key tasks for the following year, influencing investment strategies[2] Performance Correlation - Historical analysis from 2014 to 2023 shows that from November onwards, the correlation between stock price performance and the current year's earnings significantly decreases, while the correlation with the next year's earnings increases[10] - The correlation between stock prices and next year's earnings continues to rise from November to April, suggesting a shift in investment focus towards future performance[10] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to consider sectors with high earnings growth and relatively low valuations for 2026, such as marine equipment, precious metals, medical services, and industrial metals[6] - The military industry is expected to remain a strategic focus during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with trends towards cost reduction, automation, and globalization[6] Risk Considerations - Market participants should remain cautious due to uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and potential impacts on global markets[2] - The ongoing concerns regarding the AI bubble and its effects on large tech stocks in the US may also pose risks to market stability[2]

Group 1 - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) reached a historical high of 8.21 yuan on November 5, 2023, alongside other banks like Shanghai Pudong Development Bank and Ningbo Bank showing significant gains [2] - Year-to-date performance of the banking sector is underwhelming, with a gain of 12.99% compared to the All A Index's 25.81% [2] - Large-cap stocks have a weighted return of 15.26%, significantly lagging behind small-cap stocks which achieved a return of 61.46% [2] Group 2 - Historical trends suggest a "valuation switch" may occur towards the end of the year, with expectations for a rotation in market styles [4] - Market strategies indicate that from April to October, the focus is on current fundamentals, while from November to the following March, the emphasis shifts to future expectations [4] - November is identified as a critical time for market movements, where the correlation with current fundamentals weakens, indicating a potential for "anti-fundamental" and "forward-looking" trading strategies [4]

Core Viewpoint - The focus of the market in late October will be on Q3 earnings reports, with companies representing new consumption showing strong performance, making them key investment targets [1] Group 1: New Consumption Trends - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period has seen high demand for new consumption, and this trend is expected to continue into the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, offering potential for excess returns [3] - Changes in consumer behavior are leading to a rationalization of lifestyles and consumption psychology, benefiting new channels such as instant retail, snack wholesale, and membership supermarkets [3] - There is an increasing consumer focus on health and functionality, while still valuing taste and novelty, which will benefit products like coconut water, konjac, and health foods [3] Group 2: Beneficial Sectors from Policy Stimulus - The demographic structure is a key issue for the "15th Five-Year Plan," with anticipated policies to stimulate birth rates, positively impacting markets for liquid milk, infant formula, and children's cheese [4] - Short-term issuance of dining consumption vouchers is expected to slightly revive the catering sector, with ongoing systemic support likely to continue, enhancing consumer activity in dining services [4] Group 3: Supply and Demand Balance - The decline in raw milk prices since 2021 is expected to reverse, with supply-demand imbalances easing during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, leading to a moderate increase in milk prices [5] - On the supply side, the orderly advancement of anti-involution is expected to lead to a cyclical reversal in the livestock industry, with rising beef prices and a reduction in imports contributing to the ongoing capacity reduction in raw milk supply [5] - On the demand side, policy stimuli are anticipated to continue boosting dairy consumption [5]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The health supplement market is benefiting from an aging population and increased health awareness, with an expected growth of approximately 5% by 2025. The Douyin channel saw a growth of about 60% in the first half of the year [1][2] - The dairy sector, particularly cheese and low-temperature milk, is performing well. Miao Ke Lan Duo's B-end market demand is strong, with a growth rate exceeding 30% in the first three quarters of 2025, and an expected growth of 40-50% in the fourth quarter and 2026 [1][3] - The ready-to-eat food chain brands like Juewei, Zhou Hei Ya, and Babi are adapting their store formats to meet consumer demands, with Babi achieving significant same-store sales growth after store renovations [1][3] Key Companies and Performance - HH International Holdings is excelling in the adult health supplement sector, with online sales accounting for over 70% and Douyin channel growth reaching 80% [1][2] - Minsheng Health is actively launching new products targeting younger consumers, such as smoking cessation and anti-hair loss products [2] - Xiluyuan is increasing its market share in the low-temperature milk sector, with a projected net profit increase of about 1 percentage point in 2025 [3] Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities in the dairy industry are cyclical, focusing on raw milk and beef cattle cycles. A balance point in raw milk supply and demand is expected in the first half of 2026, with beef cattle prices already on the rise [1][3] - Upstream farms like Youran Agriculture, Modern Farming, and China Shengmu are seen as having strong investment potential [1][3] - The beverage sector is facing weak overall demand in 2025, with the liquor segment, particularly baijiu and beer, under pressure. The baijiu sector remains one of the few negative return segments in a bull market, reflecting pessimistic market expectations [2][4] Future Outlook - For 2026, attention is drawn to leading companies with favorable fundamentals, such as Yanjing Beer, Dongpeng Special Drink, and Moutai, which are expected to achieve valuation switches [5] - Companies in distress, particularly within the baijiu sector, may exhibit better-than-expected performance [5] Market Sentiment and Catalysts - Current market sentiment towards the baijiu sector is gradually becoming optimistic, despite third-quarter reports showing continuous downward adjustments in performance. Stock prices have not seen significant fluctuations, indicating some desensitization to negative reports [6] - Potential catalysts include improved sales during the Spring Festival and a low base effect in the second quarter of next year due to this year's alcohol ban, which may lead to a sales recovery [6] - The structural destocking of baijiu channels began in early 2025, with inventory issues expected to ease as product flow improves [7] Notable Companies in Beer and Beverage Sectors - In the A-share market, Dongpeng Special Drink and Yanjing Beer are highlighted. Dongpeng is experiencing rapid growth, but revenue growth may slow due to high base effects. Yanjing Beer, despite revenue declines from the alcohol ban, is meeting profit expectations [8] - In the Hong Kong market, Nongfu Spring is noted for strong performance in packaged water and Oriental Leaf products, although future growth may stabilize [8]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Views - The food and beverage sector showed a slight increase of +0.86% from October 13 to October 17, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which decreased by -1.47%, and the CSI 300 Index, which fell by -2.22% [21] - The report highlights a mixed performance across sub-sectors, with other alcoholic beverages leading with a +3.62% increase, while soft drinks experienced a significant decline of -5.19% [21] - The report emphasizes the importance of performance catalysts in the liquor sector, particularly in the context of the recent Autumn Sugar and Wine Fair, where feedback was relatively subdued [2][13] Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The liquor sector, particularly baijiu, showed a +1.78% increase, outperforming the overall food and beverage sector [2][13] - The report notes a cautious sentiment among distributors, with a focus on cost-effective products gaining attention [2][13] Investment Recommendations - For the baijiu sector, three main lines of recommendation include strong beta stocks like JiuGuiJiu and Shuidao, value recovery concepts like YingJiaGongJiu, and strong alpha stocks like Shanxi Fenjiu and Guizhou Moutai [20] - In the broader consumer goods sector, recommended stocks include DongPeng Beverage and NongFu Spring, focusing on performance elasticity and potential cost benefits [20] Sector Performance - The report details the performance of various sub-sectors, with notable increases in other alcoholic beverages and health products, while soft drinks and meat products faced declines [21] - The report also provides insights into the valuation metrics, indicating that the baijiu sector's PE-TTM is at 18.94X, which is considered low compared to historical averages [13][30]

Core Insights - The article discusses the tendency for non-mainstream sectors to lead in bull markets, particularly during the latter stages of market uptrends, influenced by capital inflows and valuation considerations [1][13]. Group 1: Historical Context - In the 2005-2007 financial cycle bull market, small-cap growth stocks outperformed in the latter half of the bull market, with sectors like textiles, environmental protection, and pharmaceuticals leading the gains [2][3]. - The 2013-2015 TMT bull market saw a significant style shift in late 2014, where large-cap value stocks, particularly in non-bank financials, construction, and steel, outperformed while the TMT sector lagged [8][9]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The shift in market style during bull markets often occurs when incremental capital flows accelerate, leading to a focus on undervalued sectors with high safety margins, rather than performance-driven sectors [1][13]. - Non-mainstream sectors may experience a temporary surge in performance due to factors such as low valuations and the presence of catalysts like mergers and acquisitions [3][13]. Group 3: Current Market Outlook - The current market is expected to continue its upward trend, driven by policy expectations and potential increases in retail investor participation, particularly in low-valuation sectors [15][18]. - Financial sectors, including banks and non-bank financials, are anticipated to benefit from style shifts and may see increased performance in the fourth quarter [17][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the upcoming Q3 performance period and suggests a focus on valuation shifts in thriving sectors such as beverages, snacks, and pet products [13][14]. - It notes that the consumption sector has shown relative weakness, but low valuations may attract investment [13]. - The report emphasizes the stable growth of key companies like Shanxi Fenjiu and Wuliangye, with the latter's major shareholder completing a significant share buyback, reflecting confidence in the company [2][3]. Summary by Sections Core Company Tracking - Shanxi Fenjiu's "Glass Fen" series is experiencing steady growth, with plans to expand into markets with weaker consumption atmospheres [10]. - Wuliangye's major shareholder has completed a buyback of shares worth over 800 million yuan, increasing their stake to 55.1% [3]. - Chongqing Beer is expected to continue gaining market share in China, with a current market share of 9%, up from 6% in 2017 [11]. - Qiaqia Foods has seen improved sales in September, with expectations of a slight recovery in gross margin for Q3 [12]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on growth stocks in the snack sector, particularly Ximai Foods and Wei Long [14]. - It continues to recommend leading companies in the Hong Kong market such as Nongfu Spring and H&H International Holdings, while suggesting attention to Haitian Flavoring [14]. - In the new consumption sector, it highlights Zhongchong Co., Guibao Pet, and Bairun Co., with additional recommendations for Yuanfei Pet and Petty Co. [14]. - Traditional consumption is entering a configuration phase, with a focus on leading liquor brands like Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, and Guizhou Moutai [14].

Report Title - Stock Index Monthly Report: The AI technology wave is still spreading, and domestic macro policies are worth looking forward to [2] Core Views - **Macro**: In the short term, macro disturbances at home and abroad will continue in October. Overseas, focus on the Fed's interest rate decision at the end of October and whether employment and inflation data support rate cuts. In China, there will be a series of macro events in October, and overall, short - term macro disturbances to the market will increase, but medium - to - long - term policy guidance is still bullish [4]. - **Mesoeconomics**: New home sales in the real estate market have recovered under policy stimulus and the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season. The service industry is structurally differentiated and remains resilient at high levels. The profitability of cyclical enterprises recovers weakly, consumer subsidies restart, and manufacturing exports re - balance after tariff policy disturbances. The domestic economy remains in a weak reality stage, and attention should be paid to weak recovery opportunities under anti - involution and domestic demand - boosting policies [4]. - **Funds**: Domestic liquidity is generally loose, and overseas liquidity tends to be loose under the optimistic expectation of Fed rate cuts. The stock market has obtained leveraged funds and funds from the transfer of household deposits, but the pressure of restricted stock sales continues to increase, market divergence emerges, and it is more difficult to push the market higher after reaching a high level [4]. - **Valuation**: After a short - term sharp rise, the valuations of various indices have entered relatively high historical levels. The stock - bond risk premium at home and abroad is low, and the attractiveness of allocation funds is average [4]. - **Strategy**: Currently, the valuation of the broad - based index market is high, especially for the growth style. The risk premium index at home and abroad has dropped to a low level, and the attractiveness of the stock market has decreased marginally. However, excess liquidity has accelerated the entry of speculative funds. In October, with macro - policy expectations and the valuation switch in the fourth quarter, the cyclical style has room for a supplementary rise. Without significant macro - negatives, the market is expected to rise inertia - ally, but volatility and risks at high levels will increase. It is recommended to adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy for stock indices in October, buy IF and IH on sharp drops, or focus on short - term arbitrage opportunities by going long on IH and IF and short on IM and IC [4]. Market Review Global Stock Market Performance - In the past month, the Hang Seng Tech Index led the rise, while the German stock market led the decline. The performance order is Hang Seng Tech > ChiNext Index > FTSE Emerging Markets > Dow Jones Index > Nikkei 225 > CSI 300 > NASDAQ > FTSE Europe > Shanghai Composite Index > German DAX [8]. Industry Performance - In the past month, the new energy sector led the rise, while the comprehensive finance sector led the decline. The order is new energy > non - ferrous metals > electronics > real estate > automobiles... > commercial retail > non - bank finance > military industry > banks > comprehensive finance [12]. Futures Performance - In the past month, the basis rates of the four major stock index futures (IH, IF, IC, and IM) changed by 0.04%, 0.15%, 1.15%, and 1.36% respectively, with the discounts of IC and IM narrowing significantly. The inter - period spread rates (between the current month and the next month) of the four major stock index futures changed by 0.05%, - 0.08%, - 0.09%, and - 0.12% respectively, with the inter - period discounts of IF, IC, and IM expanding slightly. The inter - period spread rates (between the next quarter and the current month) changed by 0%, 0.15%, 0.77%, and 0.73% respectively, with the long - term discounts of IC and IM converging significantly [20]. Fund Flows Margin Trading and Market - Stabilizing Funds - In September, margin trading funds inflowed 167.39 billion yuan to reach 2.43 trillion yuan. The proportion of margin trading balance to the circulating market value of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased significantly by 0.13% to 2.54%. The scale of passive stock ETF funds was 3,696.29 billion yuan, an increase of 190.78 billion yuan from the previous month. The share was 2062.01 billion shares, with a net subscription of 73.41 billion shares from the previous month, and a net subscription of 21.02 billion shares in the latest week, with the scale increasing by 88.37 billion yuan [23]. Industrial Capital - In September, equity financing was 155.34 billion yuan, with 8 companies. Among them, IPO financing was 10.63 billion yuan, private placement was 144.71 billion yuan, and convertible bond financing was 3.5 billion yuan. The equity financing scale rebounded significantly to a neutral level. The market value of restricted stock sales (including additional issuance, placement, rights issue, and equity incentives) in September was 305.54 billion yuan, a decrease of 233.77 billion yuan from the previous month, and it was the second consecutive month of reduction this year, with a cumulative reduction of 2,586.82 billion yuan this year [26]. Liquidity Monetary Injection - In September, the central bank's OMO reverse repurchase matured at 6,949.4 billion yuan, and the reverse repurchase injection was 7,339.6 billion yuan, with a net monetary injection of 39.02 billion yuan. The liquidity in the open - market business remained loose. The MLF injection in September was 600 billion yuan, and the maturity was 300 billion yuan, with a net injection of 30 billion yuan. MLF has had a net injection for 7 consecutive months, and the overall liquidity supply is relatively loose [28]. Monetary Demand - In August, the issuance of national bonds was 1,490.49 billion yuan, and the maturity was 762.12 billion yuan, with a net monetary demand of 728.37 billion yuan. The issuance of local bonds was 851.9 billion yuan, and the maturity was 405.9 billion yuan, with a net monetary demand of 446 billion yuan. The issuance of other bonds was 5,760.34 billion yuan, and the maturity was 5,825.27 billion yuan, with a net monetary demand of 64.92 billion yuan. The total bond market issuance was 8,102.74 billion yuan, and the maturity was 6,993.29 billion yuan, with a net monetary demand of 1,109.44 billion yuan. The debt financing demand in the bond market is strong, driven by the front - loading of financing demand for national and local government bonds [31]. Fund Prices - In September, DR007, R001, and SHIBOR overnight rates changed by - 7.8bp, 11.4bp, and 4.8bp respectively to 1.44%, 1.53%, and 1.38%. The issuance rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit rebounded by 10.3bp, and the CD rate issued by joint - stock banks dropped by 1bp to 1.66%. The fund rate is significantly lower than the 1 - year MLF rate of 2% and slightly higher than the policy rate DR007 of 1.44%. The fund supply is loose, the debt financing demand is strong, and the fund price generally rebounded slightly at a low level [34]. Term Structure - In September, the yield of the 10 - year national bond changed by 1.9bp, the yield of the 5 - year national bond changed by - 2.4bp, and the yield of the 2 - year national bond changed by 8.6bp. The yield of the 10 - year policy - bank bond changed by 16.1bp, the yield of the 5 - year policy - bank bond changed by 3.2bp, and the yield of the 2 - year policy - bank bond changed by 4.7bp. Overall, the yield term structure flattened significantly in September. The credit spread between national bonds and policy - bank bonds widened significantly at both the long and short ends, highlighting a strong expectation of broad credit [38]. Sino - US Interest Rate Spread - In September, the yield of the US 10 - year Treasury bond changed by - 7.0bp to 4.18%, the inflation expectation changed by - 5.0bp to 2.34%, and the real interest rate changed by - 2.00bp to 1.84%. The price of risk assets strengthened due to the improvement of financial conditions. The 10 - 2Y spread of US Treasury bonds changed by - 8.00bp to 58.00bp. The inversion of the Sino - US interest rate spread narrowed by 8.92bp to - 232.30bp, and the offshore RMB appreciated by 0.1%. The US dollar against the RMB returned to a level slightly below the central range of the past three years and was supported [41]. Macroeconomic Fundamentals Real Estate Demand - As of October 2, the weekly trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 2.4702 million square meters, a seasonal rebound from 1.906 million square meters in the previous week, returning to the neutral level of the same period. Compared with the same period in 2019 before the epidemic, it decreased by 17.1%. Second - hand housing sales decreased seasonally, with a significant month - on - month decline, and were at a relatively low level in the past seven years. The real estate market sales have generally recovered, and attention should be paid to whether macro policies in October will further boost the real estate market [44]. Service Industry Activities - As of August 29, the weekly average daily subway passenger volume in 28 large - and medium - sized cities across the country remained at a high level, reaching 84.23 million person - times, a year - on - year increase of 4.5% and a 51% increase compared with the same period in 2021. The economic activities in the service industry remained at a high level, mainly driven by the peak of the tourism season. The traffic congestion delay index in 100 cities rebounded slightly from the previous week, at a relatively high neutral level in the past three years. Overall, the economic activities in the service industry tend to grow naturally and steadily, with a slight strengthening in monthly changes [47]. Manufacturing Tracking - In September, the capacity utilization rate of the manufacturing industry rebounded comprehensively. The capacity utilization rate of steel mills changed by 0.63%, the capacity utilization rate of asphalt changed by 10.8%, the capacity utilization rate of cement clinker enterprises changed by 21.23%, the capacity utilization rate of coke enterprises changed by 1.77%, and the average operating rate of the chemical industry chain related to external demand changed by 1.44% from the previous week. On the one hand, the anti - involution policy led to an increase in capacity utilization; on the other hand, the domestic and external demand of the manufacturing industry continued to recover [51]. Freight and Passenger Flows - Freight and passenger flows remained at relatively high levels. The weekly marginal decline was observed in the fields of postal express delivery dominated by e - commerce and civil aviation flights dominated by tourism consumption. Highway transportation was relatively weak with limited growth, while railway transportation rebounded significantly, highlighting the re - balance of the manufacturing industry after the implementation of tariff policies, showing certain resilience [56]. Import and Export - In terms of exports, the tariff policies of the US against major countries have been finalized, and global trade has entered a re - balance stage. China's exports have continued to grow strongly. China and the US are expected to negotiate again at the end of October or early November to discuss whether to extend the tariff exemption period. After the counter - seasonal strength of exports in the third quarter, there may be pressure in the fourth quarter [59]. Overseas Situation - US inflation remained resilient in August, and high - frequency data in September showed that it may continue to be resilient. Although Fed officials mentioned preventive rate cuts, the financial market still maintains an optimistic expectation of Fed rate cuts. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates twice in 2025, with a total cut of about 50bp, at the points of October and December. The probability of a rate cut in October has increased to a high level of 92.5%, and the probability in December is also as high as 81.4%. The end - of - year interest rate after rate cuts is expected to be in the range of 3.5% - 3.75%. If the core inflation remains around 2.8%, the real interest rate is expected to drop to 1%, which will be beneficial to risk assets [66]. Other Analyses Valuation - The stock - bond risk premium was 2.56% last month, a decrease of 0.08% from the previous month, at the 43.9% quantile. The foreign capital risk premium index was 3.42%, a decrease of 0.21% from the previous month, at the 16.8% quantile. The attractiveness of foreign capital was at a relatively low level. The valuations of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices were at the 86.8%, 86.7%, 98.9%, and 84.4% quantiles of the past five years respectively, and their relative valuations were not low. The valuation quantiles changed by - 3.7%, 2.4%, 4.5%, and 1.9% respectively from the previous month, and the attractiveness of each broad - based index continued to decline [68][70]. Quantitative Diagnosis - According to the seasonal law analysis, the stock market is in a stage of seasonal volatile rise and structural differentiation in October. The cyclical style is dominant, and the growth style generally fluctuates at a high level. Overall, the stock market has a good profit - making effect in October, and the style is easy to switch. Considering the high valuation of the growth style and the bullish macro - policy expectation in October, attention should be paid to the supplementary rise of the cyclical style and the opportunity of the growth style switching to AI applications. Buy IF and IH on sharp drops, and adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy for IC and IM [75].