新经济100人 未来五年，CEO的必争之地 从古到今，天下就两类生意——其中一类是实物类消费，现在基本进入了存量搏杀，今天你有饭吃，隔 壁家老王肯定要饿肚子。 而另一类，就是服务类消费，是美团的大本营，是其他巨头虎视眈眈的一块肉，更是众多创业者的生路 所在。为什么？ 它的市场足够广阔。服务业360行，行行出状元，修脚、修指甲，也能开出近万家门店。 它也足够"非标"。你卖货，比如电器，有各种参数，很容易标准化、量化。但服务业则和人的心情、体 验、审美相关。哪怕住酒店，有人喜欢闹市，有人就喜欢住在山野之间，各花入各眼。因为高度非标， 它很难诞生垄断性巨头，创业者才有活命的机会。 它很可能为你带来增量。如果你老业务是第一产业、第二产业，你有没有延展出第三产业服务业的可能 性？ 当然，创业光有正确趋势是不够的。大方向定了，接下来怎么干？提醒你注意几个要命的坑： ① 服务业360行，你到底该做什么？远离那些门槛低、大众化、人人都能做的事情，创业公司不要跟老 百姓抢饭吃，你要找有利润、能形成壁垒的细分切口。 你的单位模型能否复制？复制的基础是标准化。走一步看三步，在只有一家店的时候，你就要开始建立 产品、服务、流程的标准 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - Focus on the technology industry, particularly sectors such as AI, robotics, autonomous driving, and the Hang Seng Technology Index Core Points and Arguments - **Macroeconomic Trends**: Emphasis on accelerating investment in technology sectors during periods of market downturns, with a focus on AI, robotics, and autonomous driving as key areas for future rebounds [1][3] - **2025 Investment Focus**: Key industries to watch include leading service consumption companies and firms enhancing shareholder returns. Notable sectors for performance upgrades from mid-March to early May include precious metals, transportation, large finance, agricultural products, and food processing [1][5] - **Capital Expenditure**: Identified as a crucial driver for the technology market, with recent trends indicating increased investment from government and private sectors following the emergence of DeepSeek, which has altered expectations for domestic technological breakthroughs [1][6] - **Impact of Export Exposure**: Anticipated performance impact from the complete elimination of export exposure to the U.S. is estimated to be between 20% to 40%, potentially leading to 2-3 trading halts for individual stocks. However, this should not be interpreted as a signal of a comprehensive recession [1][7] - **May Market Outlook**: The market direction remains unclear, but two key themes are highlighted: potential rebounds in export chains due to easing U.S.-China relations, particularly in technology products, and the ongoing focus on technology sectors including AI, robotics, and new consumption trends [1][8] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Three-Phase Strategy for Tariff Impacts**: A structured approach to address recent tariff impacts includes: 1. Counter-cyclical strategies based on past trade disputes 2. Active management of market sentiment and performance expectations 3. Continued focus on technology sectors and self-sufficiency in critical areas like semiconductors and military materials [2] - **Long-term Investment Recommendations**: Industries suitable for long-term strategic investments include those with supply-side clearing such as Hong Kong internet, AH stock white goods, commercial vehicles, and lithium battery leaders, along with agricultural chemicals and pharmaceuticals [11] - **Annual Strategy Consistency**: The annual investment strategy remains unchanged, focusing on three main lines: AI and robotics, new consumption, and supply-side clearing sectors, with additional allocations to agricultural chemicals and military aerospace equipment [9][10]