若公明党退出，自民党将剩191席，但仍是众议院第一大党。 日本政坛突然飞出"黑天鹅"事件 10月10日，日本执政联盟宣告破裂，日本公明党将退出由自民党主导的执政联盟，此举可能会打乱高市 早苗成为日本首位女首相的进程。 日本放送协会（NHK）周五称，公明党代表斋藤铁夫在与自民党总裁高市早苗会面后表示，自民党"未 能就政治资金问题给出充分答复"。 若消息属实，这将终结自1999年以来延续至今的政治联盟。此事发生在日本国会定于10月15日举行下任 首相指名投票的前几天。 高市早苗在10月4日赢得自民党总裁选举，击败农业大臣小泉进次郎，成为该党首位女性党首——也有 望成为日本首位女首相。 这位强硬保守派普遍被视为已故首相安倍晋三"安倍经济学"的信奉者，主张宽松的货币政策、财政支出 与结构改革。 目前，自民党与公明党在众议院（465席）合计拥有215席，低于过半数所需的233席。 这也意味着，在野党理论上可以阻止高市获任首相，尽管分析人士认为相关风险较低。 斋藤铁夫表示，公明党不会在国会的首相指名投票中支持高市早苗。 消息出来之后，日经指数期货跌幅扩大超过1200点，跌超2%。 外汇市场上，日元最初升至152.36，随 ...

Core Points - The recent conflict between Israel and the "Resistance Arc" has escalated into what can be termed the Sixth Middle East War, significantly impacting the geopolitical landscape of the region [2][3][6] - The "Resistance Arc," led by Iran, has suffered devastating blows, with its key components facing existential crises and diminished capabilities [7][8] - The dynamics of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict have shifted, with the Iranian issue becoming increasingly central to regional tensions [9][12] Group 1: Conflict Overview - The conflict began with Hamas's actions against Israel, which were intended to protest the marginalization of the Palestinian issue and Israel's right-wing policies [2] - The ongoing violence has led to a severe humanitarian crisis in Gaza, with multiple ceasefire negotiations failing [1][7] - The conflict has evolved to include various actors, such as Hezbollah and the Houthis, indicating a broader regional confrontation [6][9] Group 2: Impact on the "Resistance Arc" - Hamas is facing a critical survival challenge, with its governance in Gaza under threat and being excluded from reconstruction plans [7][8] - Hezbollah has been significantly weakened, with pressures from both Israel and domestic Lebanese forces to disarm [7] - Iran's position as the core of the "Resistance Arc" is precarious, facing severe challenges across political, military, and social dimensions [8][12] Group 3: Changes in Regional Dynamics - The core issues in the Middle East are shifting, with the Iranian question becoming a primary concern, potentially leading to renewed conflicts [9][12] - The traditional Arab-Israeli conflict has transformed, with Arab states increasingly distancing themselves from collective opposition to Israel [4][5] - The geopolitical landscape is undergoing rapid reorganization, with countries like Saudi Arabia and Turkey gaining prominence while Israel and Iran's influence wanes [12][13] Group 4: U.S. Policy and Its Effects - The U.S. Middle East policy has been characterized by inconsistency and a lack of coherent strategy, undermining its credibility in the region [10][11] - The U.S. has oscillated between supporting Israel and engaging with Iran, complicating its role in mediating the conflict [11] - The chaotic U.S. approach has exacerbated regional tensions and diminished its standing among Middle Eastern nations [10][11]