在历史上，出现这种情况的国家，无一例外都走向了"破灭"。 靠近2025年尾，各国政府都公布了年度财政总结，不少国家都面临着财务危机。因为特朗普对全球的单边关税政策，外界都只看到了美国的债务暴雷危机， 但在全球化的今天，美国的债务暴雷不过是全球的一个缩影。 日媒产经新闻援引美金融专家罗杰斯的警告称，2026年将爆发有史以来最大的金融危机。 据悉，美国目前的债务规模已经接近40万亿美元，债务规模堪称全球第一。而日本债务约为9万亿美元，看起来总量不大，但算起来，日本的债务率却"遥遥 领先"，预计年末将高达GDP的235%。 罗杰斯认为，由于不可抗拒的原因，自2019年末席卷全球之后，对各国的经济造成严重损伤，也加速暴露了各国债务堆积的问题。 这就犹如多米诺骨牌，一旦有一个点出现崩盘爆发之后，全球债务问题将直接被引爆。而在这其中，恐怕日本将首当其冲。 在罗杰斯看来，高市提出的"负责任的积极财产"政策，将会是压倒日本经济的最后一根稻草，依靠赤字国债来对冲通胀，简直是饮鸩止渴，是一种慢性自杀 行为。 关键是全球各国央行都在实行收缩政策的情况下，高市反其道而行，命令日本央行持续加息，最终结果只能是，日本政府顶不住国债利息的 ...

来自日媒的报道指出，日本目前的债务总额已达到9万亿美元，虽然在绝对数值上不及美国，但其债务占GDP比例却高达235%。这样的高水平债务，意味着 日本的财政状况比任何国家都更为窘迫，更像是一个隐藏的定时炸弹，随时可能被引爆。美金融专家罗杰斯对此发出了严厉警告，他认为2026年可能会成为 历史上最大的金融危机的起点，而日本将首当其冲。 在2025年的财经回顾中，全球各国正处于严重的财务危机之中。众所周知，美国的债务已经逼近40万亿美元，这不仅是令人震惊的数字，更是全球经济脆弱 性的缩影。然而，除了美国以外，其他国家的经济形势同样堪忧，其中日本的财务状况引发了越来越多的关注。 随着高市的涉台言论传出，日本的GDP增速急剧放缓，仅在疫情后的这个季度就出现了0.4%的负增长，标志着经济的不景气。而在旅游、医美等领域，对 中国市场依赖深重的行业更是遭遇了无情的寒冬，多个企业不得不减产甚至停产，失业人口激增，社会矛盾加剧。 日本国内对于高市政府的警告声此起彼伏，许多有识之士已经开始为国家的未来感到忧虑，认为如果不及时调整当前的政策方向，日本经济的衰退几乎是不 可避免的。然而，高市似乎并没有意识到危机的严重性，依然坚持其一条 ...

从2025年开始，东京证券交易所推动改革步入第二阶段，将焦点转向成长市场的初创企业及高增长 公司。东京证券交易所还终止了2022年针对不符合上市要求的公司推出的过渡性措施。2026年，东京证 券交易所将采取重组计划的最后一步，对仍未取得充分改善的公司启动退市程序。 为了配合东京证券交易所，日本金融厅于2025年第三次修订日本尽责管理守则，旨在加强参与效果 和问责制。日本金融厅计划于2026年修订企业管治守则，关键议程包括有效的资本配置和更好地利用现 金进行投资。我们预期，企业管治持续取得进展，将推动资本效率及盈利能力改善，从而支撑日本股市 的长远表现。 在我们看来，当前市场已基本消化高市早苗促增长议程，即所谓"早苗经济学 (Sanaenomics)"所缔 造的最佳情境，包括通过宽松的财政和货币政策刺激内需，提升日本产业竞争力。对于投资者而言， 2026年的关键问题在于，这些政策能否在少数党派联合政府的领导下获得有效实施。 宏观经济方面，尽管具有影响力的"春斗"（春季劳资谈判）已连续两年推动名义薪资显著上涨，但 实质工资增长仍低于我们最初的预期。这主要是由通胀压力所致，尤其是大米（日本的必需品）带动的 食品价格 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise short-term interest rates to 0.75%, the highest level since 1995, amid pressures from market forces and political dynamics [1][8]. Group 1: Interest Rate Changes - The anticipated interest rate hike is a response to rising bond yields, which have reached an 18-year high due to actions by "bond vigilantes" [1][8]. - This will be the second rate increase this year, with a 25 basis point adjustment [1][8]. Group 2: Economic Context - The economic plan of Prime Minister Sanna Hayashi, known as "Hayashi Economics," relies heavily on low interest rates and increased deficit spending [1][8]. - Japan's economy contracted by 2.3% year-on-year in the third quarter, highlighting the challenges faced by the government and the central bank [4][11]. Group 3: Historical Precedents - The current situation mirrors past experiences under former Bank of Japan governors, particularly Toshihiko Fukui, who faced similar dilemmas and had to reverse rate hikes after economic downturns [2][9]. - The previous governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, left a challenging legacy for the current governor, Kazuo Ueda, who has been cautious in policy adjustments [3][11]. Group 4: Future Risks - There are concerns that if GDP growth stagnates further by 2026, Ueda may face significant political backlash, as central bank leaders often become scapegoats for economic issues [5][12]. - Geopolitical tensions, including trade wars and regional conflicts, pose additional risks to Japan's economic stability [6][12]. Group 5: Long-term Implications - Experts acknowledge that over 25 years of zero interest rates have hindered necessary economic reforms and innovation in Japan [13]. - The current economic strategy does not adequately address competitiveness or the need for structural changes in the labor market and corporate governance [13].

Core Viewpoint - The economic policy under Prime Minister Kishi's administration, termed "Sanae Economics," closely mirrors "Abenomics," focusing on aggressive fiscal measures and crisis management investments, despite the changing economic landscape in Japan [1][2][4] Group 1: Economic Measures - The Japanese government approved a comprehensive economic strategy with a spending scale of 21.3 trillion yen, significantly exceeding market expectations, with general account expenditures reaching 17.7 trillion yen [1] - The previous administration's budget for the 2024 fiscal year was only 13.9 trillion yen, indicating a substantial increase in the current year's supplementary budget [1] Group 2: Economic Context - Japan is currently experiencing inflation, with the core consumer price index (CPI) rising by 3.0% year-on-year in October, while real wages have declined for 28 consecutive months [2][3] - The yen has depreciated over 6% since Kishi took office, reaching a low of 157.9 yen per dollar, contributing to a decline in market confidence [3] Group 3: Market Reactions - The Nikkei average has dropped from a peak of 50,000 points to 48,000 points, and long-term government bond yields have risen above 1.83%, reflecting a downturn in key economic indicators [3] - The aggressive fiscal policies proposed by Kishi's administration may exacerbate inflation, as they do not prioritize addressing high price levels [3][4] Group 4: Long-term Implications - The structural issues facing Japan, such as excessive national debt and inflation, could lead to increased fiscal and socio-economic pressures if Kishi continues to pursue outdated economic policies [4]

Core Viewpoint - The election of Sanae Takaichi as the president of the Liberal Democratic Party has led to a significant depreciation of the Japanese yen, raising concerns about the impact on the Japanese economy and the potential for a prolonged period of currency weakness [3][5][17]. Group 1: Yen Depreciation - Since Takaichi's election on October 4, the yen has depreciated over 3.7%, with the exchange rate against the US dollar hitting a low of 153.003 on October 8, the lowest since mid-February [3][5]. - The yen has also weakened against other major currencies, reaching a historical low of 177.86 against the euro, marking the lowest level since the euro's inception in 1999 [5][11]. Group 2: Economic Policies - Takaichi's economic policies are characterized by a continuation of "Abenomics," advocating for loose monetary policy and active fiscal measures, which are exerting downward pressure on the yen [7][9]. - Analysts note that Takaichi's approach includes a more aggressive stance on fiscal policy while maintaining a dovish position on monetary policy, which may delay interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [9][15]. Group 3: Economic Challenges - Japan's economy is facing multiple downward pressures, including rising prices and stagnant wage growth, with nominal wages increasing by only 1.9% in September while real wages fell by 1.4% [11][13]. - The number of bankruptcies among small and micro enterprises has risen, with 965 companies filing for bankruptcy in October, a 6.2% increase year-on-year, highlighting the economic strain on these businesses [13][15]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The financial markets reacted swiftly to Takaichi's election, with a notable drop in the yen's value, leading to a consensus among traders to sell the yen [5][17]. - While the yen is currently undervalued, its future trajectory will depend on Takaichi's policy execution and her influence within the government [17][19].

Core Viewpoint - Japan's stock prices, yen exchange rate, and government bonds have all seen significant declines, attributed to the economic policies of Prime Minister Kishi Sanae, leading to market disappointment and concerns over fiscal sustainability [1][2][5] Group 1: Market Performance - The Nikkei average fell below 50,000 points on November 18 and dropped to around 48,000 points by November 21 [1] - The yen depreciated over 6% following Kishi Sanae's appointment, reaching an exchange rate of 157 yen per dollar by November 21 [1] - Long-term government bond yields exceeded 1.83% on November 20, with trading prices hitting levels not seen in 17 years [1] Group 2: Economic Policy Analysis - Initial optimism around Kishi Sanae's economic policies, dubbed "Sanae Economics," has waned as the current economic conditions differ significantly from those in 2013 [2] - Japan's national debt exceeds twice its GDP, limiting the government's ability to implement aggressive fiscal and monetary policies [2] - The government's recent economic measures, including a supplementary budget of 21.3 trillion yen, have raised concerns about fiscal discipline and sustainability [3][4] Group 3: Fiscal Challenges - The supplementary budget's size reflects Kishi Sanae's commitment to active fiscal policies, but critics argue it fails to address rising prices effectively [4] - The focus on crisis management investments, which constitute one-third of the supplementary budget, may exacerbate fiscal issues rather than resolve them [4][5] - The lack of fiscal discipline could lead to increased government debt and further depreciation of the yen, compounding inflationary pressures [5] Group 4: Monetary Policy Outlook - Market pressures have prompted Kishi Sanae to indicate a willingness to allow the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates, with expectations for a decision as early as December [5] - Persistent domestic inflation is a key reason for potential interest rate hikes, which may help stabilize the yen [5] - However, the effectiveness of monetary policy is contingent on a shift away from the current aggressive fiscal strategies [5]

Core Insights - Japan's economic growth is expected to slow due to tariffs but is likely to avoid recession [1] - The core CPI inflation rate is currently around 3% year-on-year, with expectations of falling below 2% by 2026 [1] - The new Prime Minister, Sanna Takamatsu, has introduced an economic policy framework called "Takamatsu Economics" focusing on crisis management, expansionary fiscal policy, and government responsibility in monetary policy [1] Economic Growth and Inflation - A significant decline in GDP is anticipated in Q3 of this year, yet domestic demand shows resilience [1] - Inflation is projected to decrease due to falling food prices and downward pressure from policy measures [1] - By 2027, inflation may gradually rise back to 2% after dipping below 2% in 2026 [1] Monetary Policy - The stance of Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda aligns with Prime Minister Takamatsu's views, distinguishing between cost-push and demand-pull inflation [1] - No immediate policy adjustments are expected from Ueda following the new government's inauguration [1] - The Bank of Japan is anticipated to raise interest rates in January 2026, pause for a year, and then implement two more rate hikes in 2027 [1]

Economic Growth - The US economy is expected to show moderate growth in 2026, driven by continued technology investment from the AI boom and a recovery in traditional investment demand [1] - The Eurozone is likely to see a rebound in consumer spending as external trade shocks diminish, although industrial supply chain risks remain [1] - Japan's corporate sales growth is slowing, with business investment expected to maintain momentum but not accelerate significantly [1] Inflation - The US inflation rate is projected to experience slight fluctuations and moderate cooling, with tariff impacts diminishing and stable rental inflation [2] - The Eurozone has entered a healthy and moderate inflation environment, which is expected to continue into next year [2] - Japan's new cabinet's gasoline tax reforms are anticipated to suppress the apparent inflation rate, although demand-driven inflation may remain robust [2] Monetary Policy - The next Federal Reserve chair is expected to be between Waller and Hassett, with a potential 50bps rate cut early next year under Powell's leadership [3] - The European Central Bank is not expected to cut rates due to stable inflation, maintaining a deposit facility rate of 2% [3] - The Bank of Japan may raise rates by 25bps in the next quarter, maintaining a policy rate of 0.75% thereafter [3] Fiscal Policy - The effects of the US "Great Beautiful Act" are expected to manifest in early 2026, supporting overall consumption despite potential widening of wealth gaps [4] - The EU's fiscal stance is becoming neutral, characterized by continued defense expansion and restrained non-defense spending [4] - Japan's new Prime Minister Suga advocates for "responsible active fiscal policy," leading to moderate fiscal expansion [4] Asset Allocation - Market concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve and the credibility of the US dollar may ease under Waller's leadership, impacting gold negatively and slightly increasing long-term US Treasury yields [5] - If Hassett is elected, the dollar may weaken, benefiting gold, while long-term Treasury yields could rise due to inflation expectations [5] - The overall outlook for US stocks remains positive, driven by the AI trend, while demand recovery is expected to boost gold and industrial metals [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emergence of "Sanae Economics" under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, drawing parallels with "Abenomics" and highlighting potential economic challenges Japan may face, including a booming stock market but stagnant equipment investment [1][2][4]. Economic Policy Overview - Takaichi aims to lead Japan out of the "lost 30 years" since 1993, focusing on rebuilding Japan's economic resilience and prosperity [2]. - "Sanae Economics" is seen as an evolution of "Abenomics," with a focus on bold monetary easing, flexible fiscal policies, and crisis management investments [5][6]. Investment Trends - Japan's substantial investment in the U.S. is highlighted, with a commitment of $550 billion (approximately 85 trillion yen) aimed at bolstering U.S. manufacturing and supporting anti-China policies [7][8]. - The projected equipment investment for 2024 is 98.3 trillion yen, indicating a significant increase from 2020, yet concerns remain about Japan's domestic investment capacity [7]. International Relations - Takaichi's administration emphasizes the importance of a constructive relationship with China while addressing economic security concerns, suggesting a complex diplomatic balancing act [10][11]. - The article notes that Japan's investment strategy may lead to missed opportunities domestically, as funds are directed towards the U.S. rather than local manufacturing [11].