第一个反常，羽绒服越涨越没人买。今年鸭绒原料价格从每吨从最低17万一吨涨到58万，鹅绒更涨到98万。有品牌 无奈把新品定价提到1500元，结果双11预售情况并不好。有商家给我看了后台数据，11月以来他店里销量前10的羽 绒服均价集中在350元左右，千元以上的款连榜单都挤不进去。按照网友的说法，1500的羽绒服不是买不起，只是觉 得300多的羽绒服已经足够保暖。 三件事合起来，释放的信号很清晰：年轻人消费观完成了硬核进化，伤身体的事绝不干，没性价比的溢价消费会变 得慎重，但有时也会为情绪价值一掷千金。这种冷乱自知的清醒，正在倒逼所有行业重新书写符合年轻消费者的价 值标准！ 第二个反常，白酒行业集体"失速"。三季报显示，绝大多数上市酒企利润大跌，有的是因为价格战把利润打没了， 有的则是因为销量不好。从数据来看，今年前三季度白酒产量同比下滑12%，已连续七年负增长。反观清酒、果酒 市场，2024年规模突破500亿，增速超40%。说白了，喝高价白酒更有面子的时代，被年轻人用"身体舒适度"一票否 决了，年轻人正转身拥抱清酒果酒。 第三个反常，买奢侈品的人多了。三季度上海静安奢侈品商圈销售额增长5.08%，LVMH更公开 ...

Core Insights - Japan holds a significant position in the global landscape of long-lived family businesses, with 45,189 companies over 100 years old, accounting for 51.2% of the world's total [2][3] - Among these, 1,813 companies have survived for over 200 years, representing 65.2% of the global total, while 889 have lasted over 300 years, 47 over 500 years, and 11 over 1,000 years [2] Group 1: Principles of Long-Lived Family Businesses - Long-term planning is essential, with a focus on preparing successors over 10, 30, and 100-year timelines [5] - The principle of "capacity-based management" emphasizes businesses should only expand according to their capabilities, avoiding ventures beyond their means [6] - Core competencies must be maintained, as evidenced by the struggles of Kongō Gumi when diversifying into unfamiliar construction areas [7] Group 2: Relationships and Risk Management - Strong relationships with stakeholders, including customers and suppliers, are crucial, as seen in Toyota's support for struggling suppliers [8] - Risk management is highlighted by the substantial internal deposits of Japanese companies, which reached 516 trillion yen (approximately 25 trillion RMB) by September 2024, reflecting a conservative approach to financial stability [8][9] Group 3: Inheritance Practices - The long-son inheritance system and unique adoption practices ensure capable successors are chosen, often prioritizing ability over blood relations [12][13] - Approximately 10% of Japanese family businesses transfer control to non-blood relatives, such as sons-in-law or adopted children, to enhance succession success rates [13][15] Group 4: Training Successors - Emphasis on training successors from the ground up is common, ensuring they understand the business intricacies and build relationships with employees [17][18] - The practice of sending successors to work in other companies for experience is also prevalent, allowing them to gain valuable insights before returning to the family business [18][24] Group 5: Governance and Family Values - Family governance structures, including family constitutions, help manage complex family dynamics and ensure business stability [20][27] - The importance of family values and rules is underscored, with 80% of surveyed family businesses having established family rules or teachings [19][27]