行业研究丨深度报告丨食品、饮料与烟草 [Table_Title] 海外龙头巡礼系列报告（一）：獭祭——小而散 市场下的成功突围者 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 獭祭源于山口县曾经的一家小酒厂、旭酒造，1984 年樱井博志接手时，酒厂收入不足 1 亿日 元，2023 年獭祭销售额已达 174 亿日元，且海外销售额占比达 30%，过去 40 年旭酒造实现 突破式的跨越。但过去几十年日本清酒市场持续萎缩，在一个总量较小、集中度较低的赛道中， 獭祭依然实现成功突围，我们总结来看，其成功有赖于以下几点关键原因：①工艺上由传统"酒 师"文化向专业科学进化；②产品上持续创新，追求极致；③渠道上围绕核心市场，重视专业 渠道；④营销上在一些重大时刻获得展示机会，提升全球知名度。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 朱梦兰 董思远 SAC：S0490522050003 SAC：S0490517070016 SFC：BQK487 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 21 %% %% %% %% research.95579. ...

Group 1 - The price of down jackets has significantly increased, with duck down rising from 170,000 yuan per ton to 580,000 yuan, and goose down reaching 980,000 yuan, yet sales remain low, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards more affordable options [1] - The white liquor industry is experiencing a collective slowdown, with a 12% year-on-year decline in production for the first three quarters, marking seven consecutive years of negative growth, while the market for clear liquor and fruit wine is projected to exceed 50 billion yuan in 2024, growing over 40% [3] - The luxury goods market is thriving, with a 5.08% increase in sales in Shanghai's Jing'an luxury shopping district in Q3, and a 30% rise in luxury sales on the discount e-commerce platform Vipshop, indicating a resurgence in consumer spending on luxury items [5] Group 2 - The combined trends suggest a clear signal that young consumers are evolving their spending habits, prioritizing value and comfort over high-priced luxury items, while still willing to spend on emotional value when it aligns with their preferences [7]

Core Insights - Japan holds a significant position in the global landscape of long-lived family businesses, with 45,189 companies over 100 years old, accounting for 51.2% of the world's total [2][3] - Among these, 1,813 companies have survived for over 200 years, representing 65.2% of the global total, while 889 have lasted over 300 years, 47 over 500 years, and 11 over 1,000 years [2] Group 1: Principles of Long-Lived Family Businesses - Long-term planning is essential, with a focus on preparing successors over 10, 30, and 100-year timelines [5] - The principle of "capacity-based management" emphasizes businesses should only expand according to their capabilities, avoiding ventures beyond their means [6] - Core competencies must be maintained, as evidenced by the struggles of Kongō Gumi when diversifying into unfamiliar construction areas [7] Group 2: Relationships and Risk Management - Strong relationships with stakeholders, including customers and suppliers, are crucial, as seen in Toyota's support for struggling suppliers [8] - Risk management is highlighted by the substantial internal deposits of Japanese companies, which reached 516 trillion yen (approximately 25 trillion RMB) by September 2024, reflecting a conservative approach to financial stability [8][9] Group 3: Inheritance Practices - The long-son inheritance system and unique adoption practices ensure capable successors are chosen, often prioritizing ability over blood relations [12][13] - Approximately 10% of Japanese family businesses transfer control to non-blood relatives, such as sons-in-law or adopted children, to enhance succession success rates [13][15] Group 4: Training Successors - Emphasis on training successors from the ground up is common, ensuring they understand the business intricacies and build relationships with employees [17][18] - The practice of sending successors to work in other companies for experience is also prevalent, allowing them to gain valuable insights before returning to the family business [18][24] Group 5: Governance and Family Values - Family governance structures, including family constitutions, help manage complex family dynamics and ensure business stability [20][27] - The importance of family values and rules is underscored, with 80% of surveyed family businesses having established family rules or teachings [19][27]