Core Viewpoint - The domestic caustic soda industry is experiencing significant capacity expansion, with total production capacity expected to exceed 49 million tons by the end of 2024, continuing into 2025 despite a slowdown in new capacity additions in the second half of the year [1] Group 1: Supply Dynamics - The overall capacity utilization rate for domestic caustic soda plants has increased to 84.8%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous week and 3.1 percentage points year-on-year, driven by new capacity stabilizing and strong production profits [1] - In early November, eight plants are expected to restart operations, significantly outpacing the four plants scheduled for maintenance, which may lead to increased supply pressure [2] - The execution of maintenance plans will be a key variable affecting supply elasticity, as some companies may delay maintenance to maintain high operational loads [2] Group 2: Downstream Demand - The downstream demand for caustic soda is diversified, with alumina being the primary consumer, accounting for over 30% of consumption, but alumina prices have been declining since mid-July 2025 due to increased supply [3] - The overall operating rate in the caustic soda industry has been significantly lower than the same period in 2024, as companies have reduced production in response to weak demand and profit expectations [3] - Non-alumina sectors are currently in a traditional off-season, with limited demand for caustic soda, primarily driven by essential small orders [4] Group 3: Cost Factors - The price of coal, a key component in caustic soda production, has increased by 15.59% since the long holiday, raising production costs and providing support against price declines [5] - Seasonal demand for electricity is expected to rise due to cold weather, which will further increase coal consumption [5] - Coal supply constraints and low inventory levels at northern ports are expected to maintain upward pressure on coal prices, providing cost support for caustic soda [6] Group 4: Market Outlook - The caustic soda market is facing a core contradiction of increasing supply and weak demand, leading to overall pressure on the fundamentals [6] - Despite the supply increase, the lack of marginal demand drivers is expected to limit the downward price movement of caustic soda, resulting in a predominantly weak oscillation in prices [6]

上市企业：镇洋发展（603213）,鄂尔多斯（600295）,北元集团（601568）,华塑股份（600935）,氯碱化 工（600618）,新疆天业（600075）,中泰化学（002092）,君正集团（601216）,嘉化能源（600273）,滨 化股份（601678） 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 2020-2025年1-8月中国烧碱(折100％)产量统计图 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国烧碱行业市场调查研究及未来趋势预测报告》 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年8月中国烧碱(折100％)产量为384万吨，同比增长8.1%；2025年1-8月 中国烧碱(折100％)累计产量为3045.2万吨，累计增长4.8%。 ...