Core Viewpoint - The domestic caustic soda industry is experiencing significant capacity expansion, with total production capacity expected to exceed 49 million tons by the end of 2024, continuing into 2025 despite a slowdown in new capacity additions in the second half of the year [1] Group 1: Supply Dynamics - The overall capacity utilization rate for domestic caustic soda plants has increased to 84.8%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous week and 3.1 percentage points year-on-year, driven by new capacity stabilizing and strong production profits [1] - In early November, eight plants are expected to restart operations, significantly outpacing the four plants scheduled for maintenance, which may lead to increased supply pressure [2] - The execution of maintenance plans will be a key variable affecting supply elasticity, as some companies may delay maintenance to maintain high operational loads [2] Group 2: Downstream Demand - The downstream demand for caustic soda is diversified, with alumina being the primary consumer, accounting for over 30% of consumption, but alumina prices have been declining since mid-July 2025 due to increased supply [3] - The overall operating rate in the caustic soda industry has been significantly lower than the same period in 2024, as companies have reduced production in response to weak demand and profit expectations [3] - Non-alumina sectors are currently in a traditional off-season, with limited demand for caustic soda, primarily driven by essential small orders [4] Group 3: Cost Factors - The price of coal, a key component in caustic soda production, has increased by 15.59% since the long holiday, raising production costs and providing support against price declines [5] - Seasonal demand for electricity is expected to rise due to cold weather, which will further increase coal consumption [5] - Coal supply constraints and low inventory levels at northern ports are expected to maintain upward pressure on coal prices, providing cost support for caustic soda [6] Group 4: Market Outlook - The caustic soda market is facing a core contradiction of increasing supply and weak demand, leading to overall pressure on the fundamentals [6] - Despite the supply increase, the lack of marginal demand drivers is expected to limit the downward price movement of caustic soda, resulting in a predominantly weak oscillation in prices [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal, supply has not yet increased significantly, so short - term bearish sentiment on oil prices should be cautious. Maintain a range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently wait and see to test OPEC's export price - support intention [2] - For methanol, with rising domestic production and high imports, supply pressure increases. Demand is weak, leading to high enterprise and port inventories. The weak reality remains unchanged, and the high - inventory problem of the 01 contract may further suppress the spot price. It is recommended to wait and see [3] - For urea, prices are consolidating at a low level with low volatility. The fundamentals lack drivers, and supply and demand are relatively loose. There is limited upward momentum, but the downside space is also limited at current low prices. It is advisable to wait and see [5] - For rubber, prices are rebounding as expected. Set stop - losses and conduct short - term long trades on pullbacks. Partially build positions for the hedge of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [11] - For PVC, the supply is strong and demand is weak, with poor export prospects. There is continuous inventory accumulation pressure. It is recommended to consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [13] - For pure benzene and styrene, pure benzene prices are falling, while styrene futures prices are rising. The BZN spread has room for upward repair. Styrene prices may stop falling in the short term due to high - level inventory reduction [16] - For polyethylene, the PE valuation has limited downward space, but high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market. With the arrival of the seasonal peak season, prices may remain range - bound at a low level [19] - For polypropylene, in a context of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, there is no prominent short - term contradiction. The price may be supported when the supply - surplus situation of the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [22] - For PX, it is expected to have a slight inventory increase in November, with prices mainly following crude oil fluctuations. There may be opportunities for valuation increases in the medium term [25] - For PTA, continuous inventory accumulation is expected in November, and processing fees are under pressure. There may be opportunities for PTA to strengthen driven by the increase in PXN in the medium term [28] - For ethylene glycol, there is expected to be continuous inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to short on rallies [30] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed up 0.10 yuan/barrel, a 0.02% increase, at 460.60 yuan/barrel. Singapore's ESG gasoline inventory decreased by 0.56 million barrels to 12.78 million barrels, a 4.17% decrease; diesel inventory increased by 0.69 million barrels to 9.22 million barrels, an 8.14% increase; fuel oil inventory decreased by 0.30 million barrels to 24.48 million barrels, a 1.21% decrease; total refined oil inventory decreased by 0.16 million barrels to 46.48 million barrels, a 0.35% decrease [5][6] Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang increased by 17, remained stable in Inner Mongolia, and increased by 15 in southern Shandong. The 01 contract of the futures market decreased by 13 yuan to 2112 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 15. The 1 - 5 spread remained stable at - 101 [2] Urea - **Market Information**: Spot prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hubei increased by 30, 30, and 20 respectively. The 01 contract of the futures market increased by 23 yuan to 1667 yuan, with a basis of - 67. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 16 to - 67 due to news of new export quotas [4] Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices were oscillating. The expected resolution of the US government shutdown and the expected easing of Fed funds are macro - bullish factors. As of November 6, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 65.54%, up 0.21 percentage points from last week and 5.35 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 74.45%, down 0.24 percentage points from last week and 4.37 percentage points from the same period last year. Semi - steel tire exports slowed down. As of November 2, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 105.6 tons, an increase of 1.7 tons or 1.6% [9][10] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 19 yuan to 4611 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4520 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 91 (+19) yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 304 (-1) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 80.8%, up 2.5%; the operating rate of the calcium carbide method was 81.2%, up 3.8%; the operating rate of the ethylene method was 79.7%, down 0.5%. The overall downstream operating rate was 49.6%, down 0.9%. Factory inventory was 33.5 tons (-0.3), and social inventory was 104 tons (+1.2) [11] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 112 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active contract was 5422 yuan/ton, a decrease of 112 yuan/ton; the basis was - 112 yuan/ton, a narrowing of 24 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 6350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the closing price of the active contract was 6317 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan/ton; the basis was 33 yuan/ton, a weakening of 17 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 88.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.25 yuan/ton; the profit of non - integrated EB plants was - 471.9 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton; the spread between EB continuous 1 and continuous 2 was 69 yuan/ton, a narrowing of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 66.94%, up 0.22%; the inventory at Jiangsu ports was 17.93 tons, a decrease of 1.37 tons. The weighted operating rate of three S products was 40.79%, down 1.29%; the operating rate of PS was 53.50%, up 1.50%; the operating rate of EPS was 53.95%, down 8.30%; the operating rate of ABS was 71.60%, down 0.50% [15] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6802 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton; the spot price was 6850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the basis was 48 yuan/ton, a weakening of 22 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 83.43%, down 0.31%. The production enterprise inventory was 49.02 tons, an increase of 7.42 tons; the trader inventory was 5.01 tons, an increase of 0.03 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 44.85%, down 0.52%. The LL1 - 5 spread was - 79 yuan/ton, an expansion of 2 yuan/ton [18] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6464 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton; the spot price was 6510 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the basis was 46 yuan/ton, a weakening of 13 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 77.94%, down 0.61%. The production enterprise inventory was 59.99 tons, an increase of 0.48 tons; the trader inventory was 22.86 tons, an increase of 1.5 tons; the port inventory was 6.46 tons, a decrease of 0.07 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 53.14%, up 0.52%. The LL - PP spread was 338 yuan/ton, an expansion of 4 yuan/ton [21] PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract decreased by 40 yuan to 6780 yuan; PX CFR decreased by 3 dollars to 823 dollars; the basis was - 61 yuan (+12); the 1 - 3 spread was 2 yuan (+6). The PX load in China was 89.8%, up 2.8%; the Asian load was 80.2%, up 2.1%. The FJDH plant in China and the FCFC plant in Taiwan restarted. The PTA load was 76.4%, down 1.2%. In October, South Korea's PX exports to China were 42.6 tons, an increase of 4.7 tons year - on - year. The inventory at the end of September was 402.6 tons, an increase of 10.8 tons month - on - month. The PXN was 250 dollars (+11), the South Korean PX - MX was 110 dollars (+5), and the naphtha crack spread was 110 dollars (-2) [24] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract decreased by 24 yuan to 4664 yuan. The East China spot price increased by 35 yuan/ton to 4575 yuan. The basis was - 78 yuan (+2), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 64 yuan (-2). The PTA load was 76.4%, down 1.2%. The downstream load was 91.5%, down 0.2%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on October 31 was 220.7 tons, an increase of 0.6 tons. The spot processing fee of PTA increased by 53 yuan to 167 yuan, and the futures processing fee increased by 2 yuan to 216 yuan [26] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract increased by 18 yuan to 3942 yuan. The East China spot price increased by 41 yuan to 4013 yuan. The basis was 70 yuan (-4), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 77 yuan (+3). The ethylene glycol load was 72.4%, down 3.8%; the load of synthetic gas production was 71.9%, down 11.5%; the load of ethylene production was 72.7%, up 0.7%. The import arrival forecast was 18.9 tons, and the East China departure on November 6 was 1.1 tons. The port inventory was 56.2 tons, an increase of 3.9 tons. The profit of naphtha - based production was - 825 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production was - 649 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production was 628 yuan. The cost of ethylene remained unchanged at 740 dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines decreased to 540 yuan [29]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A low - buy and high - sell range strategy is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to test OPEC's export price - support intention [3]. - For methanol, the port price is falling, the inventory is high and hard to deplete, supply is rising while demand is weakening. With the unfulfilled expectation of overseas winter production cuts, if the high - inventory issue persists, the market may decline. It's recommended to wait and see [4]. - For urea, supply and demand are both increasing, the market is in a relatively loose pattern with limited fundamental contradictions. The price has limited upside and downside, so it's advisable to wait and see [7]. - For rubber, when the price reaches the previous low, it's recommended to set a stop - loss and consider short - term long trading with a quick - in - quick - out approach. Partial position - building is suggested for the RU2601 long and RU2609 short hedge [12]. - For PVC, the fundamentals are poor with strong supply, weak demand, and a weak export outlook. There is a risk of inventory accumulation. It's recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on price rallies in the medium term [13]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the spot and futures prices are falling. The BZN spread has room to repair. The supply of pure benzene is ample, and the port inventory of styrene is decreasing. The price may stop falling in the short term [16][17]. - For polyethylene, the futures price is falling. The PE valuation has limited downside, but the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the price. It's expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [20]. - For polypropylene, the futures price is falling. There is high supply pressure and the overall inventory pressure is high. The high number of warehouse receipts and the supply - surplus situation in the cost end suppress the price [23]. - For PX, the load is high, the downstream PTA has many maintenance operations, and the PXN is expected to face pressure in November. It's recommended to wait and see for now [26]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to decrease in November, and the demand may remain high. There is a risk of negative feedback due to low processing fees. It's recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of processing fee repair [28]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply is high, the port inventory is increasing, and it's expected to continue accumulating in the fourth quarter. It's recommended to short on rallies [30]. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The INE main crude oil futures closed down 1.50 yuan/barrel, a 0.32% decline, at 463.70 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil futures also declined. The weekly oil product data of Fujairah Port showed changes in gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and total refined oil inventories [2]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a low - buy and high - sell range strategy, but wait and see for now to test OPEC's export price - support intention [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang and Inner Mongolia remained stable, while that in southern Shandong decreased by 20. The 01 contract on the futures market increased by 26 yuan to 2141 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 59. The 1 - 5 spread changed by + 15 to - 95 [3]. - **Strategy**: The port price is falling, inventory is high, supply is rising, and demand is weakening. It's recommended to wait and see [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong increased by 10, while those in Henan and Hubei remained stable. The 01 contract on the futures market increased by 3 yuan to 1633 yuan, with a basis of - 63. The 1 - 5 spread was - 2, at - 82 [6]. - **Strategy**: Supply and demand are both increasing, the market is in a relatively loose pattern. It's recommended to wait and see [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price has returned to near the starting point and shows signs of stabilization. There are different views on the rise and fall. As of October 30, 2025, the operating rates of full - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong changed, and the inventory of tire factories increased slightly. The social inventory of natural rubber in China decreased in October [10]. - **Strategy**: When the price reaches the previous low, set a stop - loss and consider short - term long trading. Partial position - building is suggested for the RU2601 long and RU2609 short hedge [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 32 yuan to 4638 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4540 (- 20) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 98 (+ 12) yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 301 (- 2) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide decreased, and the overall operating rate increased [12]. - **Strategy**: The fundamentals are poor with strong supply, weak demand, and a weak export outlook. Look for short - selling opportunities on price rallies in the medium term [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene and styrene decreased. The BZN spread decreased, and the profit of non - integrated styrene plants decreased. The upstream operating rate decreased, and the port inventory of styrene decreased [16]. - **Strategy**: The BZN spread has room to repair. The supply of pure benzene is ample, and the port inventory of styrene is decreasing. The price may stop falling in the short term [17]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price decreased by 65 yuan to 6814 yuan/ton, while the spot price remained unchanged. The upstream operating rate decreased, and the inventory decreased. The downstream average operating rate increased [19]. - **Strategy**: The PE valuation has limited downside, but the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the price. It's expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price decreased by 69 yuan to 6491 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased by 50 yuan. The upstream operating rate increased, and the inventory decreased. The downstream average operating rate increased [21]. - **Strategy**: There is high supply pressure and the overall inventory pressure is high. The high number of warehouse receipts and the supply - surplus situation in the cost end suppress the price [23]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract decreased by 10 yuan to 6650 yuan. The PX CFR remained unchanged. The load in China increased, while that in Asia decreased. Some domestic and overseas plants had changes in operation status. The import from South Korea in October increased, and the inventory increased in September [25]. - **Strategy**: The PX load is high, the downstream PTA has many maintenance operations, and the PXN is expected to face pressure in November. It's recommended to wait and see for now [26]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract decreased by 4 yuan to 4600 yuan. The spot price in East China decreased. The PTA load decreased, and some plants had changes in operation status. The downstream load increased, and the social inventory increased slightly [27]. - **Strategy**: The supply is expected to decrease in November, and the demand may remain high. There is a risk of negative feedback due to low processing fees. Pay attention to the opportunity of processing fee repair [28]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract increased by 13 yuan to 3914 yuan, while the spot price in East China decreased. The supply - side load increased, and the downstream load increased. The port inventory increased [29]. - **Strategy**: The supply is high, the port inventory is increasing, and it's expected to continue accumulating in the fourth quarter. It's recommended to short on rallies [30].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A low - buy and high - sell range strategy is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to test OPEC's export price - support willingness [3] - For methanol, the port price is falling rapidly, the inventory is high and hard to deplete, supply is increasing while demand is weakening. With the unfulfilled expectation of overseas winter production cuts, if the high - inventory problem persists, there may be a further decline in the market. It's recommended to wait and see [6] - For urea, supply and demand are both increasing, but the market is still in a relatively loose pattern. The price has limited upside and downside potential, so it's advisable to wait and see [9] - For rubber, when the price approaches the previous low, it's recommended to set a stop - loss and conduct short - term long trades. Also, partial position - building is suggested for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [15] - For PVC, the supply is strong while demand is weak, with poor export expectations. There is a continuous inventory accumulation pressure, and it's advisable to look for short - selling opportunities in the medium term [16] - For pure benzene and styrene, the BZN spread has a large upward repair space. The port inventory of styrene is decreasing, and the price may stop falling temporarily [20] - For polyethylene, the price may maintain a low - level oscillation. The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to South Korea's ethylene clearance policy [23] - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand, the high inventory pressure and cost - side supply surplus pattern suppress the market, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction [26] - For PX, in November, PXN is under pressure, but it is supported by aromatics blending for gasoline and the long - term supply - demand structure. It's recommended to wait and see [29] - For PTA, the supply - side maintenance is expected to increase, and there may be inventory depletion in November, but the processing fee expansion is limited. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of processing fee repair [31] - For ethylene glycol, the supply is high, imports are increasing, and the port is accumulating inventory. It's recommended to short - sell on rallies [34] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed down 1.70 yuan/barrel, a 0.37% decline, at 463.50 yuan/barrel. China's weekly crude oil data showed a 2.40 - million - barrel inventory reduction to 210.04 million barrels, a 1.13% decline. Gasoline, diesel, and total refined oil inventories increased [2] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is small, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A low - buy and high - sell range strategy is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see to test OPEC's export price - support willingness [3] Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang dropped 22 yuan, Inner Mongolia dropped 12.5 yuan, and Lunan dropped 30 yuan. The 01 contract on the futures market dropped 28 yuan to 2115 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 35. The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 14 to - 110 [5] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The port price is falling rapidly, the inventory is high and hard to deplete, supply is increasing while demand is weakening. If the high - inventory problem persists, there may be a further decline in the market. It's recommended to wait and see [6] Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong increased by 10 yuan, Henan increased by 10 yuan, and Hubei decreased by 10 yuan. The 01 contract on the futures market increased by 7 yuan to 1630 yuan, with a basis of - 70. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 6 to - 80 [8] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply and demand are both increasing, but the market is still in a relatively loose pattern. The price has limited upside and downside potential, so it's advisable to wait and see [9] Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price returned to near the starting point and was in a weak consolidation. As of October 30, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 65.33%, up 0.04 percentage points from the previous week and 3.23 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires was 74.69%, up 0.20 percentage points from the previous week and down 4.27 percentage points from the same period last year. As of October 26, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 103.89 tons, a 1% decline [12][13] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: When the price approaches the previous low, it's recommended to set a stop - loss and conduct short - term long trades. Also, partial position - building is suggested for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [15] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract dropped 10 yuan to 4670 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4560 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan drop. The basis was - 110 yuan, unchanged. The 1 - 5 spread was - 299 yuan, a 3 - yuan increase. The overall operating rate was 78.3%, up 1.7%. Factory inventory increased by 0.4 tons to 33.8 tons, and social inventory decreased by 0.5 tons to 103 tons [15] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is strong while demand is weak, with poor export expectations. There is a continuous inventory accumulation pressure, and it's advisable to look for short - selling opportunities in the medium term [16] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China dropped 28 yuan/ton to 5410 yuan/ton, and the active contract closed at 5438 yuan/ton, a 28 - yuan drop. The spot price of styrene remained unchanged at 6450 yuan/ton, and the active contract closed at 6354 yuan/ton, a 92 - yuan drop. The upstream operating rate was 66.72%, a 2.53% decline, and the Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 0.95 tons to 19.30 tons [19] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The BZN spread has a large upward repair space. The port inventory of styrene is decreasing, and the price may stop falling temporarily [20] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6879 yuan/ton, a 9 - yuan drop. The spot price remained unchanged at 6980 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.28%, a 0.56% decline. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 1.49 tons to 51.46 tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.04 tons to 5.00 tons [22] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price may maintain a low - level oscillation. The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to South Korea's ethylene clearance policy [23] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6560 yuan/ton, a 16 - yuan drop. The spot price remained unchanged at 6640 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 75.17%, a 0.16% increase. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.02 tons to 63.85 tons, the trader inventory decreased by 1.86 tons to 22.00 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 0.11 tons to 6.68 tons [24] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the context of weak supply and demand, the high inventory pressure and cost - side supply surplus pattern suppress the market, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction [26] PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract increased by 20 yuan to 6660 yuan. The PX CFR dropped 3 dollars to 816 dollars. The Chinese PX operating rate was 87%, a 1.1% increase, and the Asian operating rate was 78.1%, a 0.4% decline [28] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In November, PXN is under pressure, but it is supported by aromatics blending for gasoline and the long - term supply - demand structure. It's recommended to wait and see [29] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract increased by 8 yuan to 4604 yuan. The East China spot price dropped 15 yuan/ton to 4520 yuan. The PTA operating rate was 78%, a 0.8% decline. The downstream operating rate was 91.7%, a 0.3% increase [30] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - side maintenance is expected to increase, and there may be inventory depletion in November, but the processing fee expansion is limited. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of processing fee repair [31] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract dropped 69 yuan to 3901 yuan. The East China spot price dropped 62 yuan to 4002 yuan. The supply - side operating rate was 76.2%, a 2.9% increase. The port inventory increased by 3.9 tons to 56.2 tons [33] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is high, imports are increasing, and the port is accumulating inventory. It's recommended to short - sell on rallies [34]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The LPG market is expected to continue its weak and volatile consolidation trend. The supply has increased while the demand is weak, causing the spot price center to shift downward. However, the PG futures market has rebounded due to the improvement in the international spot market and the relatively low valuation of the futures, which has improved market sentiment. [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Data - From August 13 - 19, 2025, the prices of South China LPG, Shandong LPG, and MB propane spot showed an upward trend, while the prices of East China LPG and propane CFR South China fluctuated. The daily changes on August 19 were 40, -20, 40, 2, 0, 1, -2 respectively. The paper import profit increased by 26, and the main basis increased by 39. [1] Market Conditions - On Tuesday, the cheapest deliverable was East China civil LPG at 4390. FEI and CP declined, and the production profit of PP made from FEI and CP weakened slightly. The cost of production using CP was lower than that using FEI. The PG futures market fluctuated, and the 09 - 10 spread was -449 (+19). The US - Far East arbitrage window was closed. [1] - The spot prices moved downward due to increased supply and weak demand, but the PG futures rebounded because of the improvement in the international spot market and low valuation. The basis strengthened to 539 (+67), and the 9 - 10 spread was -471 (+9). The number of registered warrants increased by 2709 to 12888 lots. [1] International Market - The international market fluctuated, with freight rates remaining high and volatile. The waiting time for VLGCs at the Panama Canal decreased. The discounts of FEI and CP widened significantly. The PG - CP spread reached 8.9 (+12), and the PG - FEI spread reached 20.7 (+12). The FEI - MOPJ changed slightly, and the naphtha crack spread strengthened slightly. [1] Fundamental Data - The unloading volume decreased, chemical demand increased slightly, and port inventories decreased by 2.06%. Refinery product volumes decreased by 1.68% due to increased self - use in some refineries and the maintenance of Xintai's gas fractionation unit. However, due to weak combustion demand, refinery inventories increased by 0.07%. The PDH operating rate was 76.33% (+2.49pct), and combustion demand was still weak but approaching the end. [1]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: July 9, 2025 [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The U.S. June non - farm payrolls significantly exceeded expectations, cooling the market's bets on a September interest rate cut. The rebound of the U.S. dollar index suppressed the non - ferrous metals sector. Trump plans to send letters to multiple countries to clarify new tariff rates, and with the July 9 tariff deadline approaching, risk - aversion sentiment has risen again. Both macro and fundamental factors led to the decline of Shanghai zinc futures. However, there are signs of a halt in the hourly line, and the 22,000 yuan integer mark of Shanghai zinc provides strong support [7] Group 4: Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: For SHFE zinc 2507, it opened at 22,135 yuan/ton, closed at 22,070 yuan/ton, with a high of 22,140 yuan/ton, a low of 21,925 yuan/ton, a decline of 115 yuan, a decline rate of 0.52%, and the position decreased by 890 to 3,150. For SHFE zinc 2508, it opened at 22,070 yuan/ton, closed at 22,050 yuan/ton, with a high of 22,115 yuan/ton, a low of 21,865 yuan/ton, a decline of 135 yuan, a decline rate of 0.61%, and the position decreased by 7,658 to 118,874. For SHFE zinc 2509, it opened at 22,025 yuan/ton, closed at 21,960 yuan/ton, with a high of 22,050 yuan/ton, a low of 21,770 yuan/ton, a decline of 155 yuan, a decline rate of 0.70%, and the position decreased by 1,465 to 87,420 [7] - **Market Performance**: On July 9, most non - ferrous metals closed lower. SHFE zinc opened lower in the morning, rebounded slightly in the afternoon, and the decline narrowed. The main contract closed at 22,050 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan or 0.61%, with reduced volume and positions. LME zinc inventories accelerated to below 110,000 tons, the 0 - 3 spread was C22.05, and the import profit and loss was - 889.14 yuan/ton, with the import window closed. The processing fee continued to rise. Although some smelters had maintenance in July, the overall industry's operating rate was high due to good smelter profits, and the zinc ingot supply still increased. The consumption side entered the off - season and gradually weakened, and the pressure of inventory accumulation was gradually emerging, with social inventories increasing by 0.67 million tons to 8.91 million tons on Monday [7] Group 5: Industry News - **Shanghai Market**: On July 8, 2025, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated between 22,025 - 22,255 yuan/ton, and that of Shuangyan was between 22,045 - 22,275 yuan/ton. The mainstream transaction price of 1 zinc was between 21,955 - 22,185 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market quoted a premium of 50 - 70 yuan/ton over the SMM average price, and there were few quotes against the market. In the second trading session, ordinary domestic brands quoted a premium of 170 - 180 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract, Honglu - v quoted a premium of 160 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract, Huize quoted a premium of 140 yuan/ton over the 2507 contract, and the high - end brand Shuangyan quoted a premium of 180 - 220 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract [8] - **Ningbo Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc in the Ningbo market was around 21,965 - 22,165 yuan/ton. The regular brands in Ningbo quoted a premium of 90 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract and were at par with the Shanghai spot price. In the first period, Yongchang quoted a premium of 100 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract, Qilin quoted a delivered premium of 140 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract, and Honglu - v zinc ingots quoted a premium of 100 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract. In the second period, traders' quotes remained the same as the previous period [8] - **Tianjin Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc ingots in the Tianjin market was between 21,890 - 22,110 yuan/ton, and that of Zijin was between 21,920 - 22,130 yuan/ton. The transaction price of 1 zinc ingots was around 21,740 - 21,960 yuan/ton, and Huludao was quoted at 25,400 yuan/ton. 0 ordinary zinc quoted a premium of 20 - 40 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract, Zijin quoted a premium of 60 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract, and the Tianjin market quoted a discount of about 60 yuan/ton compared to the Shanghai market [8][9] - **Guangdong Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc in Guangdong was between 21,865 - 22,075 yuan/ton. The mainstream brands quoted a premium of 20 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract and a discount of 70 yuan/ton compared to the Shanghai spot price, and the Shanghai - Guangdong price difference remained stable. In the first period, holders quoted a premium of 0 - 40 yuan/ton for Qilin, Mengzi, Anning, and Lanxing. In the second period, Qilin, Anning, and Lanxing quoted a premium of 0 - 40 yuan/ton over the net price [9] Group 6: Data Overview - Not elaborated in detail in the given content, only mentioned data sources such as Wind and SMM, and related charts like the two - market zinc price trend, SHFE monthly spread, SMM seven - region zinc ingot weekly inventory, and LME zinc inventory [10][16]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: July 8, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - The U.S. June non - farm payrolls significantly exceeded expectations, cooling the market's bets on a September rate cut. The rebound of the U.S. dollar index suppressed the non - ferrous sector. With Trump's new tariff plan and the approaching July 9 tariff deadline, risk - aversion sentiment rose. Combined with the fundamental situation of increasing supply and weakening demand in the zinc market, the zinc price declined. However, downstream price - fixing at low points improved trading [7] Group 4: Market Review Futures Market | Contract | Opening Price (Yuan/Ton) | Closing Price (Yuan/Ton) | High (Yuan/Ton) | Low (Yuan/Ton) | Change | Change Rate | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | SHFE Zinc 2507 | 22335 | 22135 | 22340 | 22075 | - 260 | - 1.16% | 4040 | - 1295 | | SHFE Zinc 2508 | 22340 | 22090 | 22360 | 22040 | - 260 | - 1.16% | 126532 | - 1468 | | SHFE Zinc 2509 | 22290 | 22040 | 22295 | 21980 | - 250 | - 1.12% | 88885 | - 448 | - The main SHFE zinc contract closed at 22090 yuan/ton, down 260 yuan with a 1.16% decline. Trading volume increased while open interest decreased. LME zinc inventory decreased by 1725 tons to 110600 tons, the 0 - 3 spread was C21.64, and the import profit and loss was - 939.54 yuan/ton, with the import window closed. The processing fee continued to rise. Although some smelters had maintenance in July, the overall industry's high - level operation due to good smelter profits led to an increase in zinc ingot supply. The consumption entered the off - season and weakened. The inventory on Monday increased by 0.67 million tons to 8.91 million tons. The downstream price - fixing at low points improved trading, with the Shanghai market at a premium of 160 yuan over the 08 contract, the Tianjin market at a discount of 70 yuan to the Shanghai market, and the Guangdong market at a premium of 20 yuan over the 08 contract [7] Group 5: Industry News Price and Premium in Different Regions - On July 7, 2025, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was 22220 - 22420 yuan/ton, and the double - swallow brand was 22260 - 22450 yuan/ton. The 1 zinc was 22150 - 22350 yuan/ton. The morning market quoted a premium of 50 - 80 yuan/ton over the SMM average price, with fewer quotes against the futures price. In the second trading session, ordinary domestic brands quoted a premium of 160 - 170 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract [8] - In the Ningbo market, the mainstream 0 zinc transaction price was 22180 - 22340 yuan/ton. The regular brands quoted a premium of 90 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract and were at par with the Shanghai spot price [8] - In the Tianjin market, the 0 zinc ingot mainstream transaction price was 22110 - 22290 yuan/ton, and the Zijin brand was 22150 - 22310 yuan/ton. The 1 zinc ingot was 22010 - 22170 yuan/ton. The 0 zinc quoted a premium of 0 - 20 yuan/ton over the 2507 contract, and the Zijin brand quoted a premium of 20 - 30 yuan/ton over the 2507 contract. The Tianjin market was at a discount of 70 yuan to the Shanghai market [8][9] - In the Guangdong market, the 0 zinc mainstream transaction price was 22090 - 22290 yuan/ton. The mainstream brands quoted a premium of 20 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract and a discount of 70 yuan to the Shanghai spot price, and the Shanghai - Guangdong price difference widened [9] Group 6: Data Overview - No specific data overview analysis provided, only the source of data and related charts (such as the trend of zinc prices in two markets, SHFE monthly spread, SMM seven - region weekly zinc ingot inventory, and LME zinc inventory) were mentioned [10][15]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2510 are expected to be volatile, volatile, and weakly volatile respectively. Attention should be paid to the support level of the MA60 line. The core logic is that market sentiment has weakened, and steel prices have declined in a volatile manner [2]. - Under the situation of increasing supply and weak demand, the fundamentals of rebar continue the seasonal weakness. During the off - season, steel prices continue to face pressure. It is expected that steel prices will continue the volatile operation trend, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are expected to be volatile, volatile, and weakly volatile respectively. The view is to pay attention to the support of the MA60 line, and the core logic is the weakening market sentiment and the decline of steel prices in a volatile manner. There are also explanations for price change calculations and definitions of different trends [2]. Market Driving Logic - Tariff disturbances have reappeared, weakening market sentiment, and steel prices have declined from high levels. The fundamentals of rebar continue the seasonal weakness. Steel mills' production is active, and rebar output continues to rise, increasing supply pressure. Demand shows a stable performance overall, and although high - frequency demand indicators have rebounded, they are still at a low level in the same period, and off - season demand remains weak. The relatively positive factor is the low inventory, and the real - world contradictions are not significant. It is expected that steel prices will continue the volatile operation trend, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3].

Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly (Zinc) - High Zinc Prices Suppress Consumption, and the Expectation of Accumulating Shanghai Zinc Social Inventory is Slowly Materializing [1] - Report Date: July 7, 2025 [2] - Research Institute: Hongyuan Futures Research Institute [2] - Analyst: Qi Yurong (F03100031, Z0021060) [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Macro: The "Big and Beautiful" bill in the US has passed. The June small non - farm payroll data fell short of expectations, but the non - farm payroll data far exceeded expectations, shifting the interest rate cut expectation later. Additionally, the 90 - day tariff buffer period in the US is about to expire, increasing tariff uncertainty. - Raw Material: There is an expectation of looser supply. Refineries mainly purchase domestic ores. As of last week, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 3,800 yuan/metal ton, and the import zinc concentrate processing fee index rose to 66.25 US dollars/dry ton. Some zinc ore quotes at ports recently rose above 4,000 yuan/ton, but refineries are optimistic about future import processing fees and have low enthusiasm for receiving goods. - Cost and Profit: TC and by - product revenues are good, and refinery profits have significantly improved. - Supply: On June 30, Nexa announced that after the successful end of negotiations with union employees on Friday evening, the operation of the Cajamarquilla smelter has fully resumed, with normal capacity utilization. The shutdown lasted for three days, and the 2025 sales guidance remains unchanged. - Demand: Affected by factors such as the rainy season and high temperatures, demand is weak. - Inventory: Due to rigid demand purchases, social inventory has increased. - Short - term Outlook: It is expected that zinc prices will maintain a range - bound operation in the short term, with an operating range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton. In the medium to long term, with the increase in supply, the view of short - allocation remains unchanged. [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Price Changes: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased by 0.71% to 22,340 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract remained flat at 22,410 yuan/ton. The closing price of LME zinc (electronic trading) decreased by 1.55% to 2,735.5 US dollars/ton [14]. - Basis and Spread: The report provides historical data on basis, LME zinc premium/discount (0 - 3), trading volume - to - open - interest ratio, and Shanghai - London ratio (excluding exchange rate effects), as well as historical data on spot premium/discount in different regions and spreads between different contracts [16][18]. 2. Supply - Side Analysis 2.1 Zinc Concentrate - Inventory: As of July 4, the inventory of imported zinc ore in Lianyungang was 90,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons. The total inventory of 7 ports, including Fangchenggang, Lianyungang, Jinzhou Port, Huangpu Port, Qinzhou Port, Nanjing Port, and Huludao Port, was 334,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21,000 tons [25]. - Profit: As of July 3, the production profit of zinc concentrate enterprises was 4,088 yuan/metal ton. In May, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 491,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63% and a year - on - year increase of 84.26%. From January to May, the cumulative import volume was 2.204 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 52.46% [32]. - Processing Fee: The willingness of the mining end to hold prices has increased, and the growth rate of TC has slowed down. As of July 4, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 3,800 yuan/metal ton, and different regions had different processing fees [35]. 2.2 Refined Zinc - Production: The production profit of refined zinc enterprises has continued to improve. As of July 3, the production profit of refined zinc enterprises was - 228 yuan/ton. In June, the domestic refined zinc production was 590,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,800 tons, and it is expected that the production in July will remain at a high level [43]. - Import: The import profit window has closed. As of July 4, the import profit of refined zinc was - 896.89 yuan/ton. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 155,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 31,200 tons [46]. 3. Galvanized Industry - Operating Rate: The operating rate of galvanized enterprises increased by 0.27 percentage points to 56.48%. Although heavy rain affected the production of some enterprises in Tianjin, the overall operating rate of galvanized was boosted by the continuous strengthening of black metal prices after the Central Financial Work Conference [53]. - Inventory: Galvanized enterprises' raw material inventory decreased due to high - level zinc price fluctuations and weak purchasing sentiment. Their finished product inventory decreased as enterprises mainly consumed existing inventory due to concerns about product rusting in rainy weather [56]. 4. Die - Casting Zinc Alloy Industry - Price: The prices of zinc alloys fluctuated slightly. The average price of Zamak3 zinc alloy decreased by 0.69% to 23,035 yuan/ton, and the average price of Zamak5 zinc alloy decreased by 0.67% to 23,585 yuan/ton [64]. - Operating Rate: The operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises increased by 2.60 percentage points to 49.14%. The resumption of production of some previously overhauled enterprises drove the overall increase in the operating rate. However, terminal orders in industries such as hardware and sanitary ware, luggage zippers, and jewelry hardware remained weak [67]. - Inventory: The raw material inventory of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises decreased due to high - level zinc price fluctuations, strong market bearish sentiment, and weak downstream demand. The finished product inventory also decreased slightly [70][71]. 5. Zinc Oxide Industry - Price: The price of zinc oxide weakened. The average price of zinc oxide ≥99.7% decreased by 0.93% month - on - month to 21,400 yuan/ton [78]. - Operating Rate: The operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises decreased by 2.58 percentage points to 56.14%. Affected by weak demand, the production rhythm of enterprises slowed down. Terminal demand in the feed and rubber industries was weak [81]. - Inventory: The raw material inventory of zinc oxide enterprises decreased due to high - level zinc price fluctuations and low downstream inventory - building enthusiasm. The finished product inventory increased as the enterprise's delivery speed slowed down [84]. 6. Inventory Analysis - Social Inventory: As of July 3, the inventory of SMM zinc ingots in three regions was 75,900 tons, showing an increase. The inventory in the SMM zinc ingot bonded area was 6,000 tons, remaining flat month - on - month [91]. - Exchange Inventory: As of July 4, the SHFE inventory was 45,400 tons, showing an increase. The LME inventory was 112,300 tons, showing a decrease [94]. - Overall Inventory: The overall inventory of the industry chain did not change significantly. The report also provides a monthly supply - demand balance sheet, showing the supply - demand situation from January 2024 to May 2025 [98][100].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views Market Analysis - In the first half of 2025, the polyolefin prices generally maintained a weak and volatile trend. The domestic capacity expansion cycle continued, with new capacity pressure remaining. The production profits of oil - and coal - based polyolefins were good, leading to continuous increase in production. However, downstream demand support was weak. The market was affected by macro - economic atmosphere, Sino - US trade war, and Middle - East geopolitical conflicts, causing wide - range fluctuations in the market [7]. - In the second half of 2025, the domestic capacity expansion cycle will continue, mainly concentrated in the fourth quarter. The supply pressure will be fully realized, and new capacity pressure will still exist. It is expected that the PE capacity growth rate will reach 8% and the PP capacity growth rate will exceed 10% in the second half of the year. Polyolefin production is expected to continue to increase. The growth rate of downstream plastic product demand is slowing down, and greater consumption stimulus policies are needed to boost market demand. The government is expected to accelerate the governance of low - price and disorderly competition among enterprises, promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity, and boost market sentiment, resulting in a slight increase in polyolefin demand growth rate [8]. Strategy - Short - hedge polyolefins at high prices. In the second half of 2025, the polyolefin capacity expansion cycle will continue, with new capacity pressure remaining. Domestic demand growth is slowing down, and external demand is weak due to tariffs. Polyolefins are expected to continue to decline in a volatile manner. The upstream energy prices are running weakly. The absolute price of coal is at a low level, with limited downside space in valuation. One can short the production profit of coal - based polyolefins [6][9]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Polyolefin Market Review and Basis Structure - In the first half of 2025, the plastic main contract fluctuated and declined in the range of 6900 - 8200 yuan/ton, and the polypropylene main contract fluctuated and declined in the range of 6800 - 7500 yuan/ton. The domestic capacity expansion cycle continued, and downstream demand support was weak. The market was affected by macro - events such as the Sino - US trade war and Middle - East geopolitical conflicts [19][20]. II. Polyolefin Capacity Expansion 1. 2025 China Polyolefin Production Schedule - In the first half of 2025, the new PE capacity was 285 tons/year, mainly concentrated in the second quarter and in full - density and LLDPE units. By the end of the first half, the domestic PE capacity reached 3829 tons/year, with a capacity growth rate of 7.2% in the first half. It is expected that the capacity growth rate will reach 8% in the second half and 15% for the whole year, reaching 4114 tons/year [21]. - In the first half of 2025, the new PP capacity was 196 tons/year, with production in both the first and second quarters, mainly in refinery and coal - chemical units. By the end of the first half, the domestic PP capacity reached 4657 tons/year, with a capacity growth rate of 4% in the first half. It is expected that the capacity growth rate will exceed 10% in the second half, and the capacity is expected to reach 5122 tons/year for the whole year [22]. 2. 2025 Overseas Polyolefin Production Schedule - In the first half of 2025, there were few new overseas polyolefin plant startups, and the main startups are concentrated in the second half, with possible delays in the official startup time [26]. III. Polyolefin Maintenance 1. PE Maintenance Capacity by Process - In the first half of 2025, due to continuous new PE capacity, the over - capacity pattern in the industry continued, and the PE plant maintenance volume remained high. In terms of process, oil - based PE maintenance accounted for 78% of the total maintenance volume, coal - based PE accounted for 1%, and alkane - based PE accounted for 21% [31]. 2. PP Maintenance Capacity by Process - In the first half of 2025, the maintenance volume of upstream petrochemical plants remained high, especially for PDH - based PP plants sensitive to production profits. Oil - based PP maintenance accounted for 41% of the total maintenance volume, coal - based PP accounted for 5%, PDH - based PP accounted for 40%, and other processes accounted for about 14% [36]. 3. Polyolefin Operating Rate Forecast - In the first half of 2025, there were intensive plant maintenance in March, May, and July. The annual average operating rate of PP was lower than that of PE. Among PE varieties, LLDPE had a higher operating rate than the total, while HDPE had a lower one. In terms of process, oil - and coal - based polyolefins had better operating rates, while PDH plants had low operating rates from March to May due to production losses [41][46]. IV. Polyolefin Domestic Supply and Import - Export 1. Domestic Polyolefin Production - In the first half of 2025, the domestic PE production was 15.39 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12%. LLDPE production was 6.74 million tons (about 44% of the total), HDPE was 6.92 million tons (about 45%), and LDPE was 1.72 million tons (about 11%). The domestic LLDPE and HDPE production was more than LDPE, and LDPE was more dependent on imports. - In the first half of 2025, the domestic PP production was 18.65 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12%. PP drawstring production was 5.89 million tons (about 31.6% of the total), PP homopolymer was 11.65 million tons, and PP copolymer was 6.9 million tons [51]. 2. Polyolefin Production Profit and Operating Rate - In the first half of 2025, energy prices were running weakly. Polyolefin production profit was mainly affected by crude oil prices. The profit of crude - oil - based polyolefins was acceptable, while PDH - based PP was in a loss state. The average operating rate of PE was 88.2%, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%, and that of PP was 85.2%, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%. The overall polyolefin operating rate was at a low level, and the capacity utilization rate was expected to decline with continuous capacity expansion [56]. 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Spread and Operating Ratio - In the first half of 2025, the operating ratio of LLDPE was 39%, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%, HDPE was 36.3%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.7%, and LDPE was 9.3%, a year - on - year increase of 0.2%. The operating rate of PE standard products increased significantly, while that of non - standard products decreased, leading to a stronger spread between non - standard and standard PE products. - In the first half of 2025, the operating ratio of PP drawstring was 28.7%, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%. The operating ratios of PP homopolymer injection, PP copolymer injection, and PP fiber fluctuated mainly, and the spread between PP non - standard and standard products changed little [66]. 4. Polyolefin Import - Export - From January to May 2025, the PE import volume was 5.965 million tons, an 8% increase from the same period last year; the export volume was 415,000 tons, an 8% increase; and the net import volume was 5.55 million tons, a slight increase. The PP import volume was 1.424 million tons, a 9% decrease; the export volume was 1.329 million tons, a 21.6% increase; and the net import volume was 100,000 tons, a decrease. - In the first half of 2025, the external dependence of PE remained high but was decreasing. PP imports continued to decline, exports increased significantly, and the net import volume approached zero, gradually transforming into an export - oriented product [79]. 5. Polyolefin Domestic - Overseas Spread - In the first half of 2025, the LLDPE import window was partially opened at some times, and the export window was closed. The PP export window was opened, and the import window was closed. The import - export profits were mostly around the break - even point, and the import - export windows were not significantly opened. The overseas polyolefin prices were improving, and the domestic - overseas spread strengthened slightly [88]. V. Polyolefin Demand and Inventory 1. Polyolefin Downstream Demand - From January to May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of plastic product production was 5.4%. Domestic demand for plastic products increased compared with last year, mainly driven by industries such as automobiles, home appliances, and express delivery. The national subsidy policy had a good effect on domestic demand. However, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of plastic product export value was - 2%, and that of primary - form plastic import volume was - 2.3%. The downstream external demand was under pressure due to the Sino - US trade war. - In terms of PE downstream demand, the agricultural film operating rate and order days fluctuated little, currently in the seasonal off - season. The operating rate and order days of packaging film decreased year - on - year, and the profitability of stretch film slightly increased. The raw material inventory days of PE downstream terminals were at a low level, maintaining just - in - time procurement. - In terms of PP downstream demand, the operating and order conditions of plastic weaving and BOPP film were similar to previous years, and the production profit of BOPP film decreased [104]. 2. Polyolefin Inventory - In the first half of 2025, the inventory accumulation pressure of petrochemical polyolefins was acceptable, and the inventory destocking rate in June was slow. Overall, the PP inventory situation was better than that of PE. - For PE inventory, the inventory of upstream "two - oil" companies and coal - chemical enterprises increased, the port inventory was high, and the inventory of middle - stream traders was low, with weak purchasing willingness. - For PP inventory, the inventory of upstream "two - oil" companies increased, the inventory of coal - chemical enterprises and ports was low, and the inventory of middle - stream traders slightly increased [134].