Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The LPG market is expected to continue its weak and volatile consolidation trend. The supply has increased while the demand is weak, causing the spot price center to shift downward. However, the PG futures market has rebounded due to the improvement in the international spot market and the relatively low valuation of the futures, which has improved market sentiment. [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Data - From August 13 - 19, 2025, the prices of South China LPG, Shandong LPG, and MB propane spot showed an upward trend, while the prices of East China LPG and propane CFR South China fluctuated. The daily changes on August 19 were 40, -20, 40, 2, 0, 1, -2 respectively. The paper import profit increased by 26, and the main basis increased by 39. [1] Market Conditions - On Tuesday, the cheapest deliverable was East China civil LPG at 4390. FEI and CP declined, and the production profit of PP made from FEI and CP weakened slightly. The cost of production using CP was lower than that using FEI. The PG futures market fluctuated, and the 09 - 10 spread was -449 (+19). The US - Far East arbitrage window was closed. [1] - The spot prices moved downward due to increased supply and weak demand, but the PG futures rebounded because of the improvement in the international spot market and low valuation. The basis strengthened to 539 (+67), and the 9 - 10 spread was -471 (+9). The number of registered warrants increased by 2709 to 12888 lots. [1] International Market - The international market fluctuated, with freight rates remaining high and volatile. The waiting time for VLGCs at the Panama Canal decreased. The discounts of FEI and CP widened significantly. The PG - CP spread reached 8.9 (+12), and the PG - FEI spread reached 20.7 (+12). The FEI - MOPJ changed slightly, and the naphtha crack spread strengthened slightly. [1] Fundamental Data - The unloading volume decreased, chemical demand increased slightly, and port inventories decreased by 2.06%. Refinery product volumes decreased by 1.68% due to increased self - use in some refineries and the maintenance of Xintai's gas fractionation unit. However, due to weak combustion demand, refinery inventories increased by 0.07%. The PDH operating rate was 76.33% (+2.49pct), and combustion demand was still weak but approaching the end. [1]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: July 9, 2025 [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The U.S. June non - farm payrolls significantly exceeded expectations, cooling the market's bets on a September interest rate cut. The rebound of the U.S. dollar index suppressed the non - ferrous metals sector. Trump plans to send letters to multiple countries to clarify new tariff rates, and with the July 9 tariff deadline approaching, risk - aversion sentiment has risen again. Both macro and fundamental factors led to the decline of Shanghai zinc futures. However, there are signs of a halt in the hourly line, and the 22,000 yuan integer mark of Shanghai zinc provides strong support [7] Group 4: Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: For SHFE zinc 2507, it opened at 22,135 yuan/ton, closed at 22,070 yuan/ton, with a high of 22,140 yuan/ton, a low of 21,925 yuan/ton, a decline of 115 yuan, a decline rate of 0.52%, and the position decreased by 890 to 3,150. For SHFE zinc 2508, it opened at 22,070 yuan/ton, closed at 22,050 yuan/ton, with a high of 22,115 yuan/ton, a low of 21,865 yuan/ton, a decline of 135 yuan, a decline rate of 0.61%, and the position decreased by 7,658 to 118,874. For SHFE zinc 2509, it opened at 22,025 yuan/ton, closed at 21,960 yuan/ton, with a high of 22,050 yuan/ton, a low of 21,770 yuan/ton, a decline of 155 yuan, a decline rate of 0.70%, and the position decreased by 1,465 to 87,420 [7] - **Market Performance**: On July 9, most non - ferrous metals closed lower. SHFE zinc opened lower in the morning, rebounded slightly in the afternoon, and the decline narrowed. The main contract closed at 22,050 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan or 0.61%, with reduced volume and positions. LME zinc inventories accelerated to below 110,000 tons, the 0 - 3 spread was C22.05, and the import profit and loss was - 889.14 yuan/ton, with the import window closed. The processing fee continued to rise. Although some smelters had maintenance in July, the overall industry's operating rate was high due to good smelter profits, and the zinc ingot supply still increased. The consumption side entered the off - season and gradually weakened, and the pressure of inventory accumulation was gradually emerging, with social inventories increasing by 0.67 million tons to 8.91 million tons on Monday [7] Group 5: Industry News - **Shanghai Market**: On July 8, 2025, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated between 22,025 - 22,255 yuan/ton, and that of Shuangyan was between 22,045 - 22,275 yuan/ton. The mainstream transaction price of 1 zinc was between 21,955 - 22,185 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market quoted a premium of 50 - 70 yuan/ton over the SMM average price, and there were few quotes against the market. In the second trading session, ordinary domestic brands quoted a premium of 170 - 180 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract, Honglu - v quoted a premium of 160 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract, Huize quoted a premium of 140 yuan/ton over the 2507 contract, and the high - end brand Shuangyan quoted a premium of 180 - 220 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract [8] - **Ningbo Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc in the Ningbo market was around 21,965 - 22,165 yuan/ton. The regular brands in Ningbo quoted a premium of 90 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract and were at par with the Shanghai spot price. In the first period, Yongchang quoted a premium of 100 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract, Qilin quoted a delivered premium of 140 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract, and Honglu - v zinc ingots quoted a premium of 100 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract. In the second period, traders' quotes remained the same as the previous period [8] - **Tianjin Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc ingots in the Tianjin market was between 21,890 - 22,110 yuan/ton, and that of Zijin was between 21,920 - 22,130 yuan/ton. The transaction price of 1 zinc ingots was around 21,740 - 21,960 yuan/ton, and Huludao was quoted at 25,400 yuan/ton. 0 ordinary zinc quoted a premium of 20 - 40 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract, Zijin quoted a premium of 60 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract, and the Tianjin market quoted a discount of about 60 yuan/ton compared to the Shanghai market [8][9] - **Guangdong Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc in Guangdong was between 21,865 - 22,075 yuan/ton. The mainstream brands quoted a premium of 20 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract and a discount of 70 yuan/ton compared to the Shanghai spot price, and the Shanghai - Guangdong price difference remained stable. In the first period, holders quoted a premium of 0 - 40 yuan/ton for Qilin, Mengzi, Anning, and Lanxing. In the second period, Qilin, Anning, and Lanxing quoted a premium of 0 - 40 yuan/ton over the net price [9] Group 6: Data Overview - Not elaborated in detail in the given content, only mentioned data sources such as Wind and SMM, and related charts like the two - market zinc price trend, SHFE monthly spread, SMM seven - region zinc ingot weekly inventory, and LME zinc inventory [10][16]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: July 8, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - The U.S. June non - farm payrolls significantly exceeded expectations, cooling the market's bets on a September rate cut. The rebound of the U.S. dollar index suppressed the non - ferrous sector. With Trump's new tariff plan and the approaching July 9 tariff deadline, risk - aversion sentiment rose. Combined with the fundamental situation of increasing supply and weakening demand in the zinc market, the zinc price declined. However, downstream price - fixing at low points improved trading [7] Group 4: Market Review Futures Market | Contract | Opening Price (Yuan/Ton) | Closing Price (Yuan/Ton) | High (Yuan/Ton) | Low (Yuan/Ton) | Change | Change Rate | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | SHFE Zinc 2507 | 22335 | 22135 | 22340 | 22075 | - 260 | - 1.16% | 4040 | - 1295 | | SHFE Zinc 2508 | 22340 | 22090 | 22360 | 22040 | - 260 | - 1.16% | 126532 | - 1468 | | SHFE Zinc 2509 | 22290 | 22040 | 22295 | 21980 | - 250 | - 1.12% | 88885 | - 448 | - The main SHFE zinc contract closed at 22090 yuan/ton, down 260 yuan with a 1.16% decline. Trading volume increased while open interest decreased. LME zinc inventory decreased by 1725 tons to 110600 tons, the 0 - 3 spread was C21.64, and the import profit and loss was - 939.54 yuan/ton, with the import window closed. The processing fee continued to rise. Although some smelters had maintenance in July, the overall industry's high - level operation due to good smelter profits led to an increase in zinc ingot supply. The consumption entered the off - season and weakened. The inventory on Monday increased by 0.67 million tons to 8.91 million tons. The downstream price - fixing at low points improved trading, with the Shanghai market at a premium of 160 yuan over the 08 contract, the Tianjin market at a discount of 70 yuan to the Shanghai market, and the Guangdong market at a premium of 20 yuan over the 08 contract [7] Group 5: Industry News Price and Premium in Different Regions - On July 7, 2025, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was 22220 - 22420 yuan/ton, and the double - swallow brand was 22260 - 22450 yuan/ton. The 1 zinc was 22150 - 22350 yuan/ton. The morning market quoted a premium of 50 - 80 yuan/ton over the SMM average price, with fewer quotes against the futures price. In the second trading session, ordinary domestic brands quoted a premium of 160 - 170 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract [8] - In the Ningbo market, the mainstream 0 zinc transaction price was 22180 - 22340 yuan/ton. The regular brands quoted a premium of 90 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract and were at par with the Shanghai spot price [8] - In the Tianjin market, the 0 zinc ingot mainstream transaction price was 22110 - 22290 yuan/ton, and the Zijin brand was 22150 - 22310 yuan/ton. The 1 zinc ingot was 22010 - 22170 yuan/ton. The 0 zinc quoted a premium of 0 - 20 yuan/ton over the 2507 contract, and the Zijin brand quoted a premium of 20 - 30 yuan/ton over the 2507 contract. The Tianjin market was at a discount of 70 yuan to the Shanghai market [8][9] - In the Guangdong market, the 0 zinc mainstream transaction price was 22090 - 22290 yuan/ton. The mainstream brands quoted a premium of 20 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract and a discount of 70 yuan to the Shanghai spot price, and the Shanghai - Guangdong price difference widened [9] Group 6: Data Overview - No specific data overview analysis provided, only the source of data and related charts (such as the trend of zinc prices in two markets, SHFE monthly spread, SMM seven - region weekly zinc ingot inventory, and LME zinc inventory) were mentioned [10][15]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2510 are expected to be volatile, volatile, and weakly volatile respectively. Attention should be paid to the support level of the MA60 line. The core logic is that market sentiment has weakened, and steel prices have declined in a volatile manner [2]. - Under the situation of increasing supply and weak demand, the fundamentals of rebar continue the seasonal weakness. During the off - season, steel prices continue to face pressure. It is expected that steel prices will continue the volatile operation trend, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are expected to be volatile, volatile, and weakly volatile respectively. The view is to pay attention to the support of the MA60 line, and the core logic is the weakening market sentiment and the decline of steel prices in a volatile manner. There are also explanations for price change calculations and definitions of different trends [2]. Market Driving Logic - Tariff disturbances have reappeared, weakening market sentiment, and steel prices have declined from high levels. The fundamentals of rebar continue the seasonal weakness. Steel mills' production is active, and rebar output continues to rise, increasing supply pressure. Demand shows a stable performance overall, and although high - frequency demand indicators have rebounded, they are still at a low level in the same period, and off - season demand remains weak. The relatively positive factor is the low inventory, and the real - world contradictions are not significant. It is expected that steel prices will continue the volatile operation trend, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3].

Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly (Zinc) - High Zinc Prices Suppress Consumption, and the Expectation of Accumulating Shanghai Zinc Social Inventory is Slowly Materializing [1] - Report Date: July 7, 2025 [2] - Research Institute: Hongyuan Futures Research Institute [2] - Analyst: Qi Yurong (F03100031, Z0021060) [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Macro: The "Big and Beautiful" bill in the US has passed. The June small non - farm payroll data fell short of expectations, but the non - farm payroll data far exceeded expectations, shifting the interest rate cut expectation later. Additionally, the 90 - day tariff buffer period in the US is about to expire, increasing tariff uncertainty. - Raw Material: There is an expectation of looser supply. Refineries mainly purchase domestic ores. As of last week, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 3,800 yuan/metal ton, and the import zinc concentrate processing fee index rose to 66.25 US dollars/dry ton. Some zinc ore quotes at ports recently rose above 4,000 yuan/ton, but refineries are optimistic about future import processing fees and have low enthusiasm for receiving goods. - Cost and Profit: TC and by - product revenues are good, and refinery profits have significantly improved. - Supply: On June 30, Nexa announced that after the successful end of negotiations with union employees on Friday evening, the operation of the Cajamarquilla smelter has fully resumed, with normal capacity utilization. The shutdown lasted for three days, and the 2025 sales guidance remains unchanged. - Demand: Affected by factors such as the rainy season and high temperatures, demand is weak. - Inventory: Due to rigid demand purchases, social inventory has increased. - Short - term Outlook: It is expected that zinc prices will maintain a range - bound operation in the short term, with an operating range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton. In the medium to long term, with the increase in supply, the view of short - allocation remains unchanged. [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Price Changes: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased by 0.71% to 22,340 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract remained flat at 22,410 yuan/ton. The closing price of LME zinc (electronic trading) decreased by 1.55% to 2,735.5 US dollars/ton [14]. - Basis and Spread: The report provides historical data on basis, LME zinc premium/discount (0 - 3), trading volume - to - open - interest ratio, and Shanghai - London ratio (excluding exchange rate effects), as well as historical data on spot premium/discount in different regions and spreads between different contracts [16][18]. 2. Supply - Side Analysis 2.1 Zinc Concentrate - Inventory: As of July 4, the inventory of imported zinc ore in Lianyungang was 90,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons. The total inventory of 7 ports, including Fangchenggang, Lianyungang, Jinzhou Port, Huangpu Port, Qinzhou Port, Nanjing Port, and Huludao Port, was 334,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21,000 tons [25]. - Profit: As of July 3, the production profit of zinc concentrate enterprises was 4,088 yuan/metal ton. In May, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 491,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63% and a year - on - year increase of 84.26%. From January to May, the cumulative import volume was 2.204 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 52.46% [32]. - Processing Fee: The willingness of the mining end to hold prices has increased, and the growth rate of TC has slowed down. As of July 4, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 3,800 yuan/metal ton, and different regions had different processing fees [35]. 2.2 Refined Zinc - Production: The production profit of refined zinc enterprises has continued to improve. As of July 3, the production profit of refined zinc enterprises was - 228 yuan/ton. In June, the domestic refined zinc production was 590,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,800 tons, and it is expected that the production in July will remain at a high level [43]. - Import: The import profit window has closed. As of July 4, the import profit of refined zinc was - 896.89 yuan/ton. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 155,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 31,200 tons [46]. 3. Galvanized Industry - Operating Rate: The operating rate of galvanized enterprises increased by 0.27 percentage points to 56.48%. Although heavy rain affected the production of some enterprises in Tianjin, the overall operating rate of galvanized was boosted by the continuous strengthening of black metal prices after the Central Financial Work Conference [53]. - Inventory: Galvanized enterprises' raw material inventory decreased due to high - level zinc price fluctuations and weak purchasing sentiment. Their finished product inventory decreased as enterprises mainly consumed existing inventory due to concerns about product rusting in rainy weather [56]. 4. Die - Casting Zinc Alloy Industry - Price: The prices of zinc alloys fluctuated slightly. The average price of Zamak3 zinc alloy decreased by 0.69% to 23,035 yuan/ton, and the average price of Zamak5 zinc alloy decreased by 0.67% to 23,585 yuan/ton [64]. - Operating Rate: The operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises increased by 2.60 percentage points to 49.14%. The resumption of production of some previously overhauled enterprises drove the overall increase in the operating rate. However, terminal orders in industries such as hardware and sanitary ware, luggage zippers, and jewelry hardware remained weak [67]. - Inventory: The raw material inventory of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises decreased due to high - level zinc price fluctuations, strong market bearish sentiment, and weak downstream demand. The finished product inventory also decreased slightly [70][71]. 5. Zinc Oxide Industry - Price: The price of zinc oxide weakened. The average price of zinc oxide ≥99.7% decreased by 0.93% month - on - month to 21,400 yuan/ton [78]. - Operating Rate: The operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises decreased by 2.58 percentage points to 56.14%. Affected by weak demand, the production rhythm of enterprises slowed down. Terminal demand in the feed and rubber industries was weak [81]. - Inventory: The raw material inventory of zinc oxide enterprises decreased due to high - level zinc price fluctuations and low downstream inventory - building enthusiasm. The finished product inventory increased as the enterprise's delivery speed slowed down [84]. 6. Inventory Analysis - Social Inventory: As of July 3, the inventory of SMM zinc ingots in three regions was 75,900 tons, showing an increase. The inventory in the SMM zinc ingot bonded area was 6,000 tons, remaining flat month - on - month [91]. - Exchange Inventory: As of July 4, the SHFE inventory was 45,400 tons, showing an increase. The LME inventory was 112,300 tons, showing a decrease [94]. - Overall Inventory: The overall inventory of the industry chain did not change significantly. The report also provides a monthly supply - demand balance sheet, showing the supply - demand situation from January 2024 to May 2025 [98][100].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views Market Analysis - In the first half of 2025, the polyolefin prices generally maintained a weak and volatile trend. The domestic capacity expansion cycle continued, with new capacity pressure remaining. The production profits of oil - and coal - based polyolefins were good, leading to continuous increase in production. However, downstream demand support was weak. The market was affected by macro - economic atmosphere, Sino - US trade war, and Middle - East geopolitical conflicts, causing wide - range fluctuations in the market [7]. - In the second half of 2025, the domestic capacity expansion cycle will continue, mainly concentrated in the fourth quarter. The supply pressure will be fully realized, and new capacity pressure will still exist. It is expected that the PE capacity growth rate will reach 8% and the PP capacity growth rate will exceed 10% in the second half of the year. Polyolefin production is expected to continue to increase. The growth rate of downstream plastic product demand is slowing down, and greater consumption stimulus policies are needed to boost market demand. The government is expected to accelerate the governance of low - price and disorderly competition among enterprises, promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity, and boost market sentiment, resulting in a slight increase in polyolefin demand growth rate [8]. Strategy - Short - hedge polyolefins at high prices. In the second half of 2025, the polyolefin capacity expansion cycle will continue, with new capacity pressure remaining. Domestic demand growth is slowing down, and external demand is weak due to tariffs. Polyolefins are expected to continue to decline in a volatile manner. The upstream energy prices are running weakly. The absolute price of coal is at a low level, with limited downside space in valuation. One can short the production profit of coal - based polyolefins [6][9]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Polyolefin Market Review and Basis Structure - In the first half of 2025, the plastic main contract fluctuated and declined in the range of 6900 - 8200 yuan/ton, and the polypropylene main contract fluctuated and declined in the range of 6800 - 7500 yuan/ton. The domestic capacity expansion cycle continued, and downstream demand support was weak. The market was affected by macro - events such as the Sino - US trade war and Middle - East geopolitical conflicts [19][20]. II. Polyolefin Capacity Expansion 1. 2025 China Polyolefin Production Schedule - In the first half of 2025, the new PE capacity was 285 tons/year, mainly concentrated in the second quarter and in full - density and LLDPE units. By the end of the first half, the domestic PE capacity reached 3829 tons/year, with a capacity growth rate of 7.2% in the first half. It is expected that the capacity growth rate will reach 8% in the second half and 15% for the whole year, reaching 4114 tons/year [21]. - In the first half of 2025, the new PP capacity was 196 tons/year, with production in both the first and second quarters, mainly in refinery and coal - chemical units. By the end of the first half, the domestic PP capacity reached 4657 tons/year, with a capacity growth rate of 4% in the first half. It is expected that the capacity growth rate will exceed 10% in the second half, and the capacity is expected to reach 5122 tons/year for the whole year [22]. 2. 2025 Overseas Polyolefin Production Schedule - In the first half of 2025, there were few new overseas polyolefin plant startups, and the main startups are concentrated in the second half, with possible delays in the official startup time [26]. III. Polyolefin Maintenance 1. PE Maintenance Capacity by Process - In the first half of 2025, due to continuous new PE capacity, the over - capacity pattern in the industry continued, and the PE plant maintenance volume remained high. In terms of process, oil - based PE maintenance accounted for 78% of the total maintenance volume, coal - based PE accounted for 1%, and alkane - based PE accounted for 21% [31]. 2. PP Maintenance Capacity by Process - In the first half of 2025, the maintenance volume of upstream petrochemical plants remained high, especially for PDH - based PP plants sensitive to production profits. Oil - based PP maintenance accounted for 41% of the total maintenance volume, coal - based PP accounted for 5%, PDH - based PP accounted for 40%, and other processes accounted for about 14% [36]. 3. Polyolefin Operating Rate Forecast - In the first half of 2025, there were intensive plant maintenance in March, May, and July. The annual average operating rate of PP was lower than that of PE. Among PE varieties, LLDPE had a higher operating rate than the total, while HDPE had a lower one. In terms of process, oil - and coal - based polyolefins had better operating rates, while PDH plants had low operating rates from March to May due to production losses [41][46]. IV. Polyolefin Domestic Supply and Import - Export 1. Domestic Polyolefin Production - In the first half of 2025, the domestic PE production was 15.39 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12%. LLDPE production was 6.74 million tons (about 44% of the total), HDPE was 6.92 million tons (about 45%), and LDPE was 1.72 million tons (about 11%). The domestic LLDPE and HDPE production was more than LDPE, and LDPE was more dependent on imports. - In the first half of 2025, the domestic PP production was 18.65 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12%. PP drawstring production was 5.89 million tons (about 31.6% of the total), PP homopolymer was 11.65 million tons, and PP copolymer was 6.9 million tons [51]. 2. Polyolefin Production Profit and Operating Rate - In the first half of 2025, energy prices were running weakly. Polyolefin production profit was mainly affected by crude oil prices. The profit of crude - oil - based polyolefins was acceptable, while PDH - based PP was in a loss state. The average operating rate of PE was 88.2%, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%, and that of PP was 85.2%, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%. The overall polyolefin operating rate was at a low level, and the capacity utilization rate was expected to decline with continuous capacity expansion [56]. 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Spread and Operating Ratio - In the first half of 2025, the operating ratio of LLDPE was 39%, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%, HDPE was 36.3%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.7%, and LDPE was 9.3%, a year - on - year increase of 0.2%. The operating rate of PE standard products increased significantly, while that of non - standard products decreased, leading to a stronger spread between non - standard and standard PE products. - In the first half of 2025, the operating ratio of PP drawstring was 28.7%, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%. The operating ratios of PP homopolymer injection, PP copolymer injection, and PP fiber fluctuated mainly, and the spread between PP non - standard and standard products changed little [66]. 4. Polyolefin Import - Export - From January to May 2025, the PE import volume was 5.965 million tons, an 8% increase from the same period last year; the export volume was 415,000 tons, an 8% increase; and the net import volume was 5.55 million tons, a slight increase. The PP import volume was 1.424 million tons, a 9% decrease; the export volume was 1.329 million tons, a 21.6% increase; and the net import volume was 100,000 tons, a decrease. - In the first half of 2025, the external dependence of PE remained high but was decreasing. PP imports continued to decline, exports increased significantly, and the net import volume approached zero, gradually transforming into an export - oriented product [79]. 5. Polyolefin Domestic - Overseas Spread - In the first half of 2025, the LLDPE import window was partially opened at some times, and the export window was closed. The PP export window was opened, and the import window was closed. The import - export profits were mostly around the break - even point, and the import - export windows were not significantly opened. The overseas polyolefin prices were improving, and the domestic - overseas spread strengthened slightly [88]. V. Polyolefin Demand and Inventory 1. Polyolefin Downstream Demand - From January to May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of plastic product production was 5.4%. Domestic demand for plastic products increased compared with last year, mainly driven by industries such as automobiles, home appliances, and express delivery. The national subsidy policy had a good effect on domestic demand. However, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of plastic product export value was - 2%, and that of primary - form plastic import volume was - 2.3%. The downstream external demand was under pressure due to the Sino - US trade war. - In terms of PE downstream demand, the agricultural film operating rate and order days fluctuated little, currently in the seasonal off - season. The operating rate and order days of packaging film decreased year - on - year, and the profitability of stretch film slightly increased. The raw material inventory days of PE downstream terminals were at a low level, maintaining just - in - time procurement. - In terms of PP downstream demand, the operating and order conditions of plastic weaving and BOPP film were similar to previous years, and the production profit of BOPP film decreased [104]. 2. Polyolefin Inventory - In the first half of 2025, the inventory accumulation pressure of petrochemical polyolefins was acceptable, and the inventory destocking rate in June was slow. Overall, the PP inventory situation was better than that of PE. - For PE inventory, the inventory of upstream "two - oil" companies and coal - chemical enterprises increased, the port inventory was high, and the inventory of middle - stream traders was low, with weak purchasing willingness. - For PP inventory, the inventory of upstream "two - oil" companies increased, the inventory of coal - chemical enterprises and ports was low, and the inventory of middle - stream traders slightly increased [134].

行业 锌期货日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 12 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 有色金属研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余菲菲 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾 | 表1：期货市场行情 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位：元/吨 | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变化 | | 沪锌 | 2506 | 22190 | 22430 | 22485 | 22190 | 335 | 1.52 | 2510 | -870 | | 沪锌 | 2507 | 21900 | 22140 | 22205 | 21855 | 270 | 1.23 | 125779 | -9292 | | 沪锌 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation of primary lead and recycled lead varies, with marginal increase in supply pressure. The off - season of lead - acid battery consumption continues, and the terminal sectors are slightly differentiated. Enterprises mainly accept long - term orders. With supply increasing and demand weak, there is insufficient upward drive for lead prices. However, due to the continuous existence of structural contradictions in raw material supply and demand, cost factors support lead prices. As the fundamental contradictions are not significantly intensified, it is expected that lead prices will maintain a wide - range oscillation [3][80]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Lead Market Review - In May 2025, Shanghai lead first increased and then decreased. In the first half of the month, with a series of domestic financial policies, the easing of Sino - US tariffs, and the strengthening of the interest - rate cut expectation due to the cooling of US inflation, the market risk appetite improved, and lead prices oscillated strongly. But it was difficult to break through the resistance at 17,000 yuan, and the price slightly回调. In the second half of the month, Moody's downgraded the US credit rating, and concerns about the US debt problem led to a decline in market risk appetite. Meanwhile, the arrival of crude lead eased the raw material pressure, the price of waste batteries decreased slightly, the cost loosened, and the off - season of consumption remained unchanged, with increasing inventory pressure. Lead prices gave back the gains from the first half of the month. By May 30, the futures price closed at 16,620 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 1.31%. - LME lead first declined, then rebounded, and finally oscillated sideways. At the beginning of the month, tariff concerns gradually cooled, and LME inventory slightly declined from a high level, so LME lead stabilized and rebounded. Subsequently, market sentiment fluctuated around economic pressure, inflation, and interest - rate cut expectations. In the second half of the month, LME inventory increased significantly, strengthening the expectation of overseas surplus, and the lead price was under pressure. The resistance at $2,000/ton was obvious, and the futures price slightly declined and oscillated. Finally, it closed at $1,963.5/ton, with a monthly increase of 0.98% [8]. 2. Lead Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Lead Ore Supply Situation - **Global lead concentrate supply is slowly recovering**: In March 2025, global lead concentrate production was 367,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.2% and a year - on - year increase of 1.21%. The cumulative production from January to March was 1.028 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.5%. ILZSG predicts that the global lead mine production in 2025 is expected to increase by 2.3% to 4.62 million tons. Overseas lead mines are producing steadily, and domestic lead concentrate production is also increasing. It is estimated that the global lead concentrate increment in 2025 is 160,000 tons, with 90,000 tons overseas and 70,000 tons in China. The contradiction of supply - demand mismatch in lead concentrate is expected to persist in the medium term [10][11]. - **Lead concentrate processing fees decline month - on - month, and lead concentrate imports decrease month - on - month**: In June 2025, the average monthly processing fees for domestic and overseas lead concentrates were 600 yuan/metal ton and - 30 dollars/dry ton respectively, with a month - on - month decrease of 60 yuan/metal ton and - 10 dollars/dry ton respectively. In April 2025, lead concentrate imports were 111,050 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.3% and a year - on - year increase of 22.13%. The cumulative imports from January to April were 448,700 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 41%. The import of silver concentrate also decreased in April. The supply - demand gap of lead concentrate exists in the long - term, and there is still a slight downward pressure on processing fees [19]. 2.2 Refined Lead Supply Situation - **Global refined lead supply growth is gentle**: In March 2025, global refined lead production was 1.1316 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.9% and a year - on - year increase of 1.72%. The cumulative production from January to March was 3.2584 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.7%. ILZSG predicts that the global refined lead production in 2025 will be 13.272 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. Overseas, there are no large - scale new refineries in recent years, mainly relying on the resumption and ramping - up of previous shut - down refineries. In China, new recycled lead refineries are the main focus, but projects are often postponed due to raw material constraints [25]. - **Electrolytic lead production in April was lower than expected, and supply mainly recovered in May**: In May 2025, electrolytic lead production was 331,200 tons, slightly lower than expected, a month - on - month increase of 3.53% and a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. The cumulative production from January to May was 1.562 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 8.2%. In June, due to more refinery overhauls and tightened lead concentrate supply, it is expected that electrolytic lead production will be 320,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.3%. For the whole year of 2025, electrolytic lead supply is expected to increase steadily [31]. - **The price of waste batteries moves up, and recycled lead refineries gradually resume production**: In May 2025, the average price of waste batteries was 10,200 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. In June, the price of waste batteries is expected to move up slightly. In May, recycled refined lead production was 223,500 tons, significantly lower than expected, a month - on - month decrease of 36.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.5%. In June, production is expected to rebound to 267,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.9%, but the raw material supply problem still needs attention [36][37]. 2.3 Refined Lead Demand Situation - **Global refined lead demand situation**: In March 2025, global refined lead consumption was 1.1383 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.4% and a year - on - year increase of 3.37%. The cumulative consumption from January to March was 3.242 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.3%. ILZSG predicts that the global refined lead demand in 2025 is expected to increase by 1.5% to 13.19 million tons. In 2025, global refined lead supply will exceed demand by 82,000 tons. The uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy has a negative impact on the lead - battery demand in the automotive industry [46][47]. - **Lead - battery consumption is in the off - season, and sectors are differentiated**: In May, lead - battery enterprises maintained the characteristics of the seasonal off - season, with the five - province battery enterprise operating rate at 70.45% at the end of May. The production of electric - bicycle and automotive lead - battery markets changed little, while the operating rate of energy - storage battery enterprises was relatively good. After the Dragon Boat Festival, the operating rate may rebound slightly but will remain in the range of 70 - 73% [54]. - **The Shanghai - London ratio is not conducive to lead ingot and battery exports**: In April 2025, the refined lead export volume was 3,368 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.09% and a year - on - year increase of 15.54%. The refined lead import volume in April was 4,734 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3496.9% and a month - on - month increase of 65.1%. The lead - battery export volume in April was 2.0463 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11.6% and a month - on - month increase of 8.3%. The reduction of Sino - US tariffs is beneficial to battery exports [55]. - **Policy guidance improves the lead - battery consumption prospect marginally**: In the terminal demand of lead - batteries, automotive and electric - bicycle batteries account for a large proportion. In the automotive sector, the lead - battery demand is strong, with both replacement and new - car supporting demands increasing. In the electric - bicycle sector, policies such as trade - in and the new national standard are beneficial to lead - battery consumption. In the energy - storage sector, the market scale is growing, and lead - battery demand also has growth potential [69][70][71]. 2.4 Overseas Inventory First Decreases and Then Increases, and There is Pressure on Domestic Inventory Accumulation - In May, LME inventory first decreased and then increased. By May 30, the inventory was 284,200 tons, a monthly increase of 20,000 tons. The domestic social inventory first increased and then decreased. By May 29, the inventory was 49,400 tons, a monthly increase of 4,600 tons. In June, inventory is expected to rise again, but the accumulation volume is limited [76][78]. 3. Summary and Outlook for the Future - The supply - demand imbalance of lead concentrate remains unchanged. In June, the domestic and overseas processing fees decreased slightly. The electrolytic lead production in May increased month - on - month but was slightly lower than expected, and it decreased in June. The recycled lead production decreased significantly in May and increased in June, but the resumption rhythm is restricted by raw material supply and profitability. The demand for electric - bicycle and automotive lead - batteries remains in the off - season, while the energy - storage battery demand is supported. The Shanghai - London ratio has limited boost to lead ingot exports. In the long - term, policy supports consumption, but the demand growth rate is stable but not strong. Overall, the supply pressure increases marginally, and lead prices are expected to oscillate widely [80].

【原料及现货】截至6月5日，杯胶44.70（+0.15）泰铢/千克，胶乳56.00（0）泰铢/千克。截云南胶水收 购价12900（0）元/吨，海南新鲜胶乳13700（0）元/吨，全乳胶上海市场13500（-100）元/吨，青岛保 税区泰标1690（-10）美元/吨，泰混13500（-100）元/吨。 【轮胎开工率及库存】截至6月5日，中国半钢胎样本企业产能利用率为64.05%，环比-8.46个百分点， 同比-16.12个百分点。周期内部分企业存2-3天检修计划，目前多数企业已按计划复工，有个别半钢胎企 业复工时间推迟，拖拽整体样本企业产能利用率走低。中国全钢胎样本企业产能利用率为55.65%，环 比-5.15个百分点，同比-5.94个百分点。"端午节"假期期间部分企业存2-3天检修计划，拖拽整体样本企 业产能利用率走低，月初轮胎企业整体订单表现一般，出货缓慢，企业成品去库节奏偏慢。 【逻辑】供应方面，东南亚产区降雨偏多继续影响供应输出，但产区多雨过后供应上量预期升温，原料 压力或逐渐显现。需求方面，轮胎企业受月底检修影响，开工有所下滑，同时轮胎企业库存有所下滑， 但可持续性仍需观察，同比库存仍处于高水平。综上 ...