恒指升 234 點，滬指升 54 點，標普 500 升 96 點 DeepSeek 發布 V3.1 新模型，採用專為「即將發布下一代國產晶片」設計的精度 格式，港股在科技股帶動下上升。恒指高開 100 點，初段升幅曾收窄至 35 點見 25,140 點後再度向上，尾市曾升 244 點一度高見 25,349 點，全日升 234 點或 0.9%，收 25,339 點；國指升 105 點或 1.2%，收 9,079 點；恒生科技指數升 149 點或 2.7%，收 5,647 點。大市全日成交總額 2,855.84 億元。 人民銀行 21 日公開市場開展 2,530 億元人民幣七天期逆回購操作，操作利率持 平於 1.4%。有 1,287 億元逆回購到期，單日淨投放 1,243 億元。人民幣兌美元中 間價上調 97 點至 7.1287。A 股三大指數早市上升。滬股升穿並在 3800 點以上 收市，再創 10 年新高。滬深兩市成交額增至約 2.55 萬億元人民幣，連續 8 日 逾 2 萬億元，創 A 股紀錄。上證指數以全日高位收市，報 3825 點，升 54 點， 升幅 1.45%。深證成份指數及創業板指數都創 3 年收 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights that Chow Tai Fook (6168 HK) is a leading jewelry brand in China's lower-tier markets, with a revenue growth forecast from RMB 3.1 billion in FY22 to RMB 5.7 billion in FY24, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 36% [1] - The net profit is expected to increase from RMB 575 million to RMB 706 million during the same period, with a CAGR of 10.8% [1] - Chow Tai Fook ranks 6th in total merchandise transaction volume among all gold jewelry companies in China, with a market share of 6.2%, and ranks 10th in revenue with a market share of 1.0% [1] Group 2 - The online business has become a key growth driver, with online revenue expected to double from RMB 1.1 billion in FY22 to RMB 2.3 billion in FY24, achieving a CAGR of 46.1% [1] - By FY24, online sales are projected to account for 40% of total revenue, the highest among leading jewelry companies [1] - Chow Tai Fook has established flagship stores on major e-commerce platforms like JD.com and Tmall, while also expanding into emerging platforms such as Pinduoduo, Douyin, and Kuaishou [1] Group 3 - The company operates 4,129 stores as of the end of 2024, with nearly 98% being franchise stores, allowing for rapid expansion at low costs [2] - Chow Tai Fook's franchise model grants franchisees significant operational autonomy, including direct procurement from authorized suppliers and the ability to tailor product offerings based on local market demands [2] - The service fee from franchisees is expected to account for 14.8% of total revenue in FY24, contributing 54% to gross profit [2] Group 4 - Chow Tai Fook's supply chain is efficient and stable, with an average partnership of 8 years with its top five suppliers, and has adopted an outsourcing production model since April 2022 to further optimize supply chain efficiency [2] - All products must undergo quality testing before sale, regardless of whether they are sourced directly from authorized suppliers or through company channels [2] Group 5 - Despite facing short-term operational pressures due to high gold prices and competition from low-priced products in the Shenzhen jewelry wholesale market, Chow Tai Fook is expected to maintain steady growth due to its strong e-commerce performance, brand appeal in lower-tier markets, and franchisees' understanding of local consumer preferences [4] - The stock is currently valued at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18 times for FY24, which is considered reasonable compared to peers, given its superior growth potential [4]

Group 1: Individual Stock Recommendations - The report recommends buying shares of Lao Pu Gold (6181) at a current price of 914.00 HKD, with a short-term target price of 994.00 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 14.3%. The catalysts for this recommendation include strong same-store sales growth and the launch of a new product series expected to boost sales in the second half of 2025 [2][12] - The report also recommends buying shares of Kingsoft (3888) at a current price of 36.60 HKD, with a short-term target price of 41.30 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 15.4%. The catalysts include the upcoming launch of new games expected to drive revenue growth in the second half of 2025 [2][15] Group 2: Market Overview and Economic Indicators - The Hang Seng Index is currently facing resistance at the March high of 24,874 points, with recent financial policies from mainland China aimed at stabilizing the market. The market anticipates further policy measures to support economic growth [3][6] - The report highlights that the U.S. inflation rate is moderating, which has led to a slight increase in U.S. stock indices. The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a mild increase of 0.1% month-on-month in May, indicating a stable inflation environment [4][16] Group 3: Industry Insights - The report notes that the traditional gold jewelry market in mainland China has experienced a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 65% from 2018 to 2023, with expectations for a CAGR of approximately 22% from 2023 to 2028 [12] - The report indicates that Kingsoft's gaming and office software revenue is expected to improve sequentially, with a projected CAGR of 13% for revenue and 22% for net profit from FY24 to FY27 [15]