每日港股評析 港股早晨快訊 2025 年 8 月 26 日星期二 2012-01- 17 市場回顧 中港股市短期展望 恒指上望 26,000 點：內地上半年經濟較預期中平穩，現階段加推經濟刺 激方案的意願不大，企業盈利改善有限。不過，中美雙方同意延長 5 月中 旬達成的 90 天關稅休戰協議，同時美國與更多國家達成協議，關稅戰局 勢緩和。加上，港股大市成交活躍，風險偏好尚算積極，資金於不同板塊 輪動。目前處於業績期，若重磅科技股業績接力報喜，可為後市注入動力， 另外，聯儲局主席鮑威爾在全球央行年會上表示，風險平衡轉變可能需要 調整政策立場，減息預期升溫，恒指有望挑戰 26,000 點關口。 短期看好板塊 今日市場焦點 ➢ 美國 8 月經濟諮詢委員會消費者信心；香港 7 月進出口； 中石油(0857)、平保(2318)、紫金(2899)、農夫山泉(9633)等業績； 宏觀焦點 ➢ 發改委提出完善擴內需政策舉措，支持企業加快技術和產品創新； 8月有166款國產網絡遊戲獲批，阿里、嗶哩嗶哩及網易等在列； 上海優化調整房貸利率定價機制，符條件居民外環外購房不限套數； 企業消息 外圍市況展望 美國聯儲局7月一如預期維持 ...

恒指升 234 點，滬指升 54 點，標普 500 升 96 點 DeepSeek 發布 V3.1 新模型，採用專為「即將發布下一代國產晶片」設計的精度 格式，港股在科技股帶動下上升。恒指高開 100 點，初段升幅曾收窄至 35 點見 25,140 點後再度向上，尾市曾升 244 點一度高見 25,349 點，全日升 234 點或 0.9%，收 25,339 點；國指升 105 點或 1.2%，收 9,079 點；恒生科技指數升 149 點或 2.7%，收 5,647 點。大市全日成交總額 2,855.84 億元。 人民銀行 21 日公開市場開展 2,530 億元人民幣七天期逆回購操作，操作利率持 平於 1.4%。有 1,287 億元逆回購到期，單日淨投放 1,243 億元。人民幣兌美元中 間價上調 97 點至 7.1287。A 股三大指數早市上升。滬股升穿並在 3800 點以上 收市，再創 10 年新高。滬深兩市成交額增至約 2.55 萬億元人民幣，連續 8 日 逾 2 萬億元，創 A 股紀錄。上證指數以全日高位收市，報 3825 點，升 54 點， 升幅 1.45%。深證成份指數及創業板指數都創 3 年收 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is expected to rise towards 26,000 points due to stable economic performance in mainland China during the first half of the year, with limited willingness to implement further economic stimulus measures and modest corporate profit improvements [2] - Active trading in the Hong Kong market reflects a positive risk appetite, with capital rotating across different sectors [2] - The initiation of a new round of trade negotiations between China and the US, along with the extension of the 90-day tariff ceasefire agreement, has contributed to a more favorable outlook for the Hang Seng Index [2] Company News - JD Group (9618) has made a takeover offer to European electronics retailer Ceconomy [4] - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (3750) reported a 33% increase in interim profit, exceeding expectations [4] - HSBC Holdings (0005) reported a 27% decline in pre-tax profit, falling short of expectations, and announced a $3 billion share buyback [4] - Prada (1913) saw a slight increase of less than 1% in half-year profit, which was below expectations [4] - WuXi AppTec (2359) is raising approximately 7.7 billion yuan through a discounted share placement [4] Economic Indicators - The US Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with indications that they are not prepared to cut rates yet, despite a slowdown in economic activity [4] - The Fed's dot plot suggests two rate cuts totaling 50 basis points this year, with a cautious outlook on future inflation [4] - The US is engaged in trade negotiations with multiple countries, with some progress reported, although uncertainties remain [4] Macro Focus - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China has decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session in October, focusing on economic development and strategic planning for the next five years [8] - The meeting emphasized the importance of maintaining strategic determination and confidence in China's economic resilience and potential [8] - The Chinese government is expected to implement more proactive fiscal policies to stimulate domestic demand and consumption [9] Investment Insights - The report highlights the potential for investment in sectors such as construction, brokerage, and export-oriented companies due to ongoing trade negotiations and infrastructure projects [7] - The focus on enhancing domestic consumption and addressing economic challenges presents opportunities for companies involved in consumer goods and services [9]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is expected to rise towards 26,000 points due to a stable economic outlook in mainland China and a postponement of tariffs by the US, although corporate earnings improvements are limited [2] - Market activity remains robust with active trading across various sectors, reflecting a positive risk appetite among investors [2] Macro Focus - US President Trump indicated that global benchmark tariffs could range between 15% to 20%, with ongoing trade negotiations between the US and China potentially paving the way for a meeting between leaders [4][8] - Reports suggest that the US-China tariff ceasefire may be extended by another 90 days, with no new tariffs imposed during this period [8] - The Chinese government is implementing a child-rearing subsidy of 3,600 RMB per year for children under three years old, aimed at reducing family costs and benefiting over 20 million families annually [8] Corporate News - WuXi AppTec (2359) reported a 95% increase in interim profits, exceeding expectations, and raised its full-year operational outlook [10] - Huazhong Medicine (2552) anticipates a profit of over 1.1 billion RMB for the interim period, a significant turnaround from a loss in the previous year [10] - ZTE Corporation (0763) plans to issue convertible bonds at a 15.9% premium, expecting to raise over 3.5 billion RMB for enhancing its computing product development [10] - Same Origin Pharmaceutical (2410) is conducting a discounted share placement to raise approximately 1.6 billion RMB for R&D and operational needs [10] - The Hong Kong retail sector is experiencing a recovery, with a 0.9% quarterly increase in core street shop rents, driven by the return of international tourists [9][10] Economic Indicators - Hong Kong's exports rose by 11.9% year-on-year in June, marking the 16th consecutive month of growth, although this was below market expectations [9] - The US Treasury plans to issue over 1 trillion USD in bonds this quarter to cover a shortfall from the previous quarter, reflecting a cautious economic outlook [8]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is facing resistance at 24,700 points, with a projected P/E ratio of 11 times over the next 12 months [2] - The recent US-China trade talks have led to a temporary reduction in tariffs, but further progress remains uncertain, impacting corporate earnings and capital inflow [2][4] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 23,892 points, down 1.06% year-to-date, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 1.76% [6] Economic Indicators - The US Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with expectations of two rate cuts totaling 0.5% this year, reflecting cautious optimism about inflation [5][8] - China's June CPI unexpectedly rose by 0.1%, ending four months of deflation, while PPI fell by 3.6%, the largest drop in two years [9] - The National Development and Reform Commission estimates China's economy could reach 140 trillion yuan this year, emphasizing the importance of innovation in economic growth [9] Corporate News - New World Development is reportedly seeking to sell its K11 properties in Hangzhou and Shenzhen, aiming to attract investment from private firms [10] - Longfor Group's debt restructuring plan has been approved by creditors, allowing for adjustments in repayment arrangements [11] - BYD has achieved significant advancements in smart parking technology, promising comprehensive safety coverage for users [10] Sector Focus - Macau's June gaming revenue exceeded expectations, indicating a strong recovery as the summer peak season approaches [7] - The online music sector faces intensified competition, prompting a potential shift of funds towards more visible tech stocks [7] - The global PC shipment volume increased by 6.5% year-on-year in Q2 2025, with Lenovo leading the market share at 24.8% [9]

Group 1 - JD.com (09618) stock price reached HKD 135.4, up 1.42%, with mixed investor sentiment regarding future price movements [1] - Technical indicators show that the 10-day moving average (HKD 134.75) and the 30-day moving average (HKD 134.86) are nearly aligned, indicating a critical decision point for the stock [1] - Key support levels are at HKD 128.3 (Support 1) and HKD 124.5 (Support 2), while resistance levels are at HKD 141.4 (Resistance 1) and HKD 145.1 (Resistance 2) [1] Group 2 - On May 19, JD.com stock rose 3.37%, significantly boosting the performance of related derivative products, with notable gains in bull certificates [3] - The Morgan Stanley bull certificate 51050 surged 30% in just two days, while another Morgan Stanley bull certificate 51256 increased by 23% [3] - Call options such as the Societe Generale call option 16648 and UBS call option 16559 also saw increases of 13% and 12%, respectively [3] Group 3 - The current focus for warrants includes the Societe Generale call option 16648 with a strike price of HKD 149.1, offering a leverage of 4.4 times, and UBS call option 16559 with similar leverage [4] - For bearish positions, put options like UBS put option 27915 and Morgan Stanley put option 27922, with a strike price of HKD 127.9, are recommended due to their low implied volatility and high leverage [4] Group 4 - Bull certificates such as the HSBC bull certificate 54063 provide a leverage of 10.4 times with a recovery price of HKD 125.5, maintaining a safety margin of about 7% from the current price [8] - Morgan Stanley bull certificate 68135 offers a leverage of 10 times with a recovery price of HKD 125 [8] - For bearish options, Citigroup bear certificate 55107 provides a leverage of 6.4 times with a recovery price of HKD 155, offering a buffer of approximately 15% from the current price [8]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 23,108.27 points, down 1.87% for the day and up 15.20% year-to-date[6] - The Technology Index fell by 3.26% to 5,269.66 points, with a year-to-date increase of 17.94%[6] - The total turnover decreased by 31.8% to HKD 219.845 billion[8] Company Performance - Micron Robotics (2252.HK) raised HKD 380 million through a 13.8% discounted placement, with major shareholder intending to reduce stake from 48.08% to 43.98%[8] - Samsonite (1910.HK) reported a first-quarter profit of HKD 48.2 million, a year-on-year decline of 42.55%, with net sales of HKD 797 million, down 7.33%[8] Economic Indicators - The one-month HIBOR is at 1.57%, the lowest in two and a half years[8] - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth rate was lower than expected, contributing to a rise in U.S. stock markets[8] Investment Recommendations - Cathay Pacific (293.HK) is recommended for purchase at HKD 9.60, with a target price of HKD 10.50 and a stop-loss at HKD 8.50[16][17] - Tencent Holdings (700.HK) has a suggested buy price of HKD 390, with a target price of HKD 450[12] Commodity Prices - New York crude oil closed at USD 63.67, up 2.78%[8] - New York gold settled at USD 3,247.80, an increase of 0.61%[8] Bond Yields - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.4729%, with a year-to-date change of -9.61 basis points[23]