Core Insights - The Brazilian sugar-cane industry is facing significant challenges due to increased competition from corn-based ethanol, leading to a shift in production focus towards sugar even amid low prices [1][9] - Sugar futures have declined by approximately 22% this year, marking the largest annual loss since 2017, with global production expected to exceed consumption by 2.8 million metric tons [3][9] - Brazilian cane millers are projected to produce a record 43 million metric tons of sugar in the upcoming harvest, a 4.6% increase from the previous year, despite the unfavorable market conditions [3][9] Industry Dynamics - The rise of corn ethanol production in Brazil is causing sugar-cane processors to divert more of their crop towards sugar production, as corn-based ethanol is cheaper to produce [5][9] - The share of corn-based ethanol in Brazil's gasoline substitute production is expected to rise from 23% to 32% in the upcoming season, further intensifying competition for sugar-cane processors [5][9] - Analysts indicate that the outlook for record ethanol supplies may lead to lower prices, making sugar production a more favorable option for millers, particularly in São Paulo [6][9] Company Performance - Shares of Raizen, Brazil's largest sugar-cane processor, have decreased by 56% this year, while smaller competitors Jalles Machado SA and Sao Martinho have seen declines of 42% and 37%, respectively [6][9] - Sugar-cane processors have expanded their sugar-making capacity in recent years to capitalize on previous surges in sugar prices, but are now facing a challenging market environment [7][9] - Economists suggest that Brazilian cane millers will have no choice but to increase sugar production in response to the current market dynamics [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - New York raw sugar prices have stopped declining due to market speculation that sugar mills will shift to using more sugarcane for ethanol production rather than for sweeteners [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The most active futures contract rose by 1.3% before narrowing its gains [1] - Prices have been on a downward trend in recent weeks, closing at a four-year low last Friday, primarily influenced by expectations of ample supply from major sugar-producing countries [1] Group 2: Supply Concerns - There are growing concerns that Brazil, the world's largest sugar exporter, may see its production affected by weak prices [1] - While most market estimates suggest Brazil will maximize its sugar production this year, sugar mills located far from port areas face risks due to higher transportation costs [1] Group 3: Production Shifts - These sugar mills may find producing biofuels more profitable, as biofuels are typically used for the domestic market [1]