Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating [3][4] 2. Core Viewpoints - If Brazil's sugar production exceeds expectations or India relaxes sugar exports, raw sugar prices may test previous lows [4] - During the new sugar - cane crushing season transition period, with diversified supply and intensified competition between processed sugar and domestic sugar, the sugar market is expected to remain range - bound, but risks of declining import costs and unmet demand expectations should be watched [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Domestic Sugar Spot Prices - In Guangxi Nanning warehouse, the spot price per ton of sugar is 5980 yuan, down 10 yuan, with a basis of 416 yuan against SR09 and a basis change of 16 yuan [4] - In Yunnan Kunming, the spot price is 5845 yuan, down 5 yuan, with a basis of 381 yuan against SR09 and a basis change of 21 yuan [4] - In Yunnan Dali, the spot price is 5710 yuan, down 10 yuan, with a basis of 286 yuan against SR09 and a basis change of 16 yuan [4] - In Shandong Rizhao, the spot price is 6030 yuan, down 20 yuan, with a basis of 366 yuan against SR09 and a basis change of 6 yuan [4] Domestic Sugar Futures Prices - SR09 futures price is 5564 yuan, down 26 yuan, and the spread between SR09 and SR01 is 31 yuan, up 3 yuan [4] - SR01 futures price is 5533 yuan, down 29 yuan [4] International Exchange Rates and Commodity Prices - The exchange rate of the Brazilian real to the Chinese yuan is 1.2818, up 0.0212; the exchange rate of the Indian rupee to the Chinese yuan is 0.084, down 0.0004 [4] - The price of ICE raw sugar futures is 16.05, unchanged; the price of London white sugar futures is 573, up 3; the price of Brent crude oil futures is 67.39, unchanged [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Internationally, with Brazil approaching its supply peak, global sugar inventories are expected to enter an accumulation phase. The selling pressure after the new Brazilian sugar - cane crushing season has dragged down the raw sugar price center, and the expected increase in production in Brazil and the Northern Hemisphere is suppressing raw sugar prices. Attention should be paid to Brazil's production progress and actual production increase [6]. - Domestically, the fast production - sales speed is expected to support sugar prices, but the large - scale entry of imported sugar into the domestic market may limit the upward space of sugar prices. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to maintain a volatile trend [6]. - Raw sugar is weak due to the expected global supply - demand relaxation, and is expected to be in a weak and volatile state in the short term. In China, the fast production - sales rhythm supports spot prices, but due to the weak raw sugar and high import profits, the pressure of processed sugar supply will be realized, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the raw sugar price passively [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures Disk**: For SR2509, the closing price is 5,802, down 15 (-0.26%); the trading volume is 143,216, down 18.77%; the open interest is 317,114, down 3.20%. For SR2601, the closing price is 5,635, down 4 (-0.07%); the trading volume is 19,895, down 17.88%; the open interest is 114,390, up 0.73%. For SR2511, the closing price is 5,694, up 7 (0.12%); the trading volume is 20,230, down 13.80%; the open interest is 51,934, down 3.19% [5]. - **Spot Price**: In different regions, today's sugar prices in Liuzhou, Kunming, Nanning, Bayuquan, Rizhao, and Xi'an are 6130, 5905, 6060, 6150, 6135, and 6420 respectively. The price in Liuzhou decreased by 10, while others remained unchanged. The corresponding basis is 436, 211, 366, 456, 441, and 726 [5]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of SR11 - SR01 is 59, up 11; the spread of SR09 - SR11 is 108, up 238; the spread of SR09 - SR01 is 167, down 11 [5]. - **Import Profit**: For Brazilian imports, the in - quota price is 4325, the out - of - quota price is 5525, with a spread of 605 compared to Liuzhou, 610 compared to Rizhao, and 110 compared to the futures market. For Thai imports, the in - quota price is 4407, the out - of - quota price is 5633, with a spread of 497 compared to Liuzhou, 502 compared to Rizhao, and 2 compared to the futures market [5]. 3.2 Market Judgment - **International**: Brazil's approaching supply peak will lead to global inventory accumulation. The new crushing season in Brazil and the expected increase in production in both Brazil and the Northern Hemisphere will suppress raw sugar prices. Attention should be paid to Brazil's production progress and actual production increase [6]. - **Domestic**: The fast production - sales speed supports sugar prices, but the large - scale entry of imported sugar may limit the upward space of sugar prices. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to maintain a volatile trend [6]. 3.3 Logic Analysis - Raw sugar is in a weak state due to the expected global supply - demand relaxation, but may be supported by buying at the bottom, so it is expected to be in a weak and volatile state in the short term. In China, the fast production - sales rhythm supports spot prices, but due to the weak raw sugar and high import profits, the pressure of processed sugar supply will be realized, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the raw sugar price passively [7]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - **Single - side**: Zhengzhou sugar will maintain a short - term oscillation [8]. - **Arbitrage**: Stay on the sidelines [9]. - **Options**: Use out - of - the - money ratio spread options [12].

Core Viewpoint - New York raw sugar prices have stopped declining due to market speculation that sugar mills will shift to using more sugarcane for ethanol production rather than for sweeteners [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The most active futures contract rose by 1.3% before narrowing its gains [1] - Prices have been on a downward trend in recent weeks, closing at a four-year low last Friday, primarily influenced by expectations of ample supply from major sugar-producing countries [1] Group 2: Supply Concerns - There are growing concerns that Brazil, the world's largest sugar exporter, may see its production affected by weak prices [1] - While most market estimates suggest Brazil will maximize its sugar production this year, sugar mills located far from port areas face risks due to higher transportation costs [1] Group 3: Production Shifts - These sugar mills may find producing biofuels more profitable, as biofuels are typically used for the domestic market [1]