韩国新生儿数量在2025年连续第二年回升，总和生育率重返0.8区间，为这个长期被"超低生育"困扰的 经济体提供了罕见的正向信号，但反弹的可持续性仍存不确定。 2月25日，韩国政府发布数据显示，2025年韩国新生儿人数为25.45万名，同比增加6.8%，增量约1.61万 名。韩国数据与统计部门公布的初步统计还显示，这是15年来最大年度增幅。 推动回升的因素更偏向人口结构与婚姻节奏的变化。政府分析称，结婚登记数量增加，以及2021年以来 处于生育黄金年龄的34岁及以下女性人口持续增加，是新生儿数量增长的关键背景。 不过，从总量看人口压力仍未解除。2025年死亡人数仍比出生人数多108,900人，意味着人口继续收 缩。 人口学家同时警告，这一轮"人口红利式"的支撑可能从2027年起减弱，市场对长期劳动力与潜在增长的 预期，仍需在短期回升与长期结构性约束之间重新定价。 出生数回升，生育率重返0.8 韩国政府数据显示，2025年新生儿为25.45万名，同比上升6.8%。总和生育率为0.8，同比提高0.05，为 2021年以来首次回升至0.8。 在全球比较维度上，韩国仍是唯一一个总和生育率低于1.0的OECD（经济合作与 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent birth incentive policies in Hubei province, particularly in cities like Tianmen and Zhushan, aimed at reversing declining birth rates through various financial and social support measures [2][4][6] - Tianmen city has introduced a series of incentives for families having second and third children, including housing vouchers, tax benefits, and increased maternity leave, effective from April 2024 to May 2027 [2][3] - Zhushan county's policy includes retroactive benefits for families who had second or third children between June 2021 and June 2026, offering substantial housing subsidies and monthly childcare allowances [4][6] Group 2 - The article discusses the demographic challenges faced by Tianmen and Zhushan, noting significant population declines over the past decade, with Tianmen's population decreasing by 74,600 from 2020 to 2024 [8][10] - The birth rate in Zhushan has dropped from 13.36‰ in 2017 to 4.88‰ in 2024, indicating a critical demographic shift [14] - The article emphasizes that despite the introduction of these policies, the overall trend of declining birth rates may not be significantly altered, as the underlying issues affecting marriage and childbirth remain unresolved [16][24] Group 3 - The United Nations predicts that China's newborn population may fall to around 8.71 million by 2025, reflecting a broader national trend of declining birth rates [16][18] - The article outlines the relationship between marriage rates and birth rates, noting that the number of marriages has been declining since 2013, which directly impacts future birth rates [19][24] - The central government's recent statements indicate an urgent need to stabilize the birth population, with plans for more robust support measures anticipated in 2026 [29][32]