证券研究报告·公司点评报告·能源金属 2025 年 08 月 25 日 博迁新材（605376） 2025 年半年报点评：业绩同比高增，镍基延 续复苏态势、铜基降银持续推进 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 688.91 | 945.31 | 1,184.34 | 2,207.82 | 3,267.88 | | 同比（%） | (7.72) | 37.22 | 25.29 | 86.42 | 48.01 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | (32.31) | 87.48 | 249.50 | 500.85 | 650.04 | | 同比（%） | (121.05) | 370.73 | 185.23 | 100.74 | 29.79 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | (0.12) | 0.33 | 0.95 | 1.91 | 2.48 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | (409.27) | ...

Macro Strategy - The report highlights that the merger and acquisition (M&A) market is entering a "fast lane," driven by favorable macroeconomic conditions and supportive policies, which are expected to enhance the valuations of technology companies [1][14][15] - Historical parallels are drawn to the M&A boom from 2013 to 2015, suggesting that current conditions, including a recovering economy and increased market liquidity, are conducive to a similar surge in M&A activity [1][14] - The report emphasizes the importance of M&A as a means to optimize resource allocation, improve production efficiency, and create new market demands, particularly in the technology sector [1][14][15] Industry Insights - The report indicates that the current M&A policies are focused on high-value industries, particularly in technology and advanced manufacturing, with 50% of major restructuring events since 2024 occurring in the TMT sector [1][14] - It notes that state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are leading the current wave of M&A, accounting for 50% of completed projects and 68% of the total value, which is expected to further concentrate resources in strategic industries [1][14][15] - The report also discusses the ongoing technological advancements in AI, robotics, and smart driving, which are driving the need for M&A to acquire critical technologies and enhance competitive advantages [1][14][15] Financing and Economic Indicators - The report anticipates a rebound in financing demand, with social financing growth expected to rise in May, supported by seasonal loan increases and government bond financing [2][16][17] - It highlights that the People's Bank of China has implemented a series of financial policies, including a 0.5% reserve requirement cut and interest rate reductions, to stimulate economic activity and improve liquidity [2][16][17] - The report also notes that the economic environment remains stable, with construction investment showing signs of recovery, although real estate sales are experiencing a downturn [16][17] Company Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies like Conch Venture (海螺创业), which is expected to see significant cash flow improvements and asset value reassessment, projecting net profits of 2.182 billion, 2.304 billion, and 2.438 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [13] - Another recommended company is Boqian New Materials (博迁新材), which is positioned as a leader in electronic powder with strong growth potential in the new energy sector, forecasting net profits of 250 million, 370 million, and 500 million yuan for the same period [13]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 57.3 CNY based on a 30x PE for 2026 [7]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leader in electronic powder materials, leveraging its advanced technology to expand into the new energy sector, which is expected to become a second growth driver [12]. - The company has a strong management team with a dual focus on technology and market development, continuously investing in R&D to enhance its competitive edge [17]. - The recovery of the MLCC (Multi-layer Ceramic Capacitor) market is anticipated in 2024, driven by the demand from AI servers and high-end consumer electronics, which will positively impact the company's revenue and profitability [38]. Summary by Sections 1. Focus on Electronic Powders and New Energy - The company has deepened its expertise in nano metal powder materials and is accelerating its entry into the new energy sector, aiming to establish a dual main business structure of high-end electronics and photovoltaics [12]. - The company has made significant advancements in nickel powder technology, which is crucial for MLCC production, and is expected to see a recovery in net profit starting in 2024 [23]. 2. AI Server Driven MLCC High-End Development - The MLCC industry is entering a new growth cycle, with a projected global market size increase of 7% in 2024, reaching 104.2 billion CNY [38]. - AI servers are expected to significantly increase the demand for MLCCs, with each server using 4000-6000 MLCCs, which is 2-3 times more than traditional servers [40]. 3. Technological Strength and Market Position - The company is recognized for its leading technology in electronic powders, particularly in the PVD (Physical Vapor Deposition) process, which creates a competitive barrier in the market [12]. - The company has established strong relationships with key clients, benefiting from the recovery of high-end consumer electronics and AI server demand [17]. 4. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 249.5 million CNY in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 185.23%, and an EPS of 0.95 CNY [7]. - The report emphasizes the company's strong market position and technological capabilities, justifying the "Buy" rating and the target price based on future earnings potential [7].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 57.3 CNY based on a 30x PE for 2026 [7]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leader in electronic powder materials, leveraging its advanced technology in nickel powder production for MLCCs and expanding into the renewable energy sector, which is expected to drive its second growth phase [7][12]. - The company has a strong management team with a dual focus on technology and market development, which has led to significant R&D investments and a robust product pipeline [12][17]. - The recovery of the MLCC market is anticipated in 2024, with a projected revenue increase driven by the demand from AI servers and high-end consumer electronics [7][38]. Summary by Sections 1. Focus on Electronic Powders and Dual Growth Drivers - The company has deepened its expertise in nano metal powder materials and is expanding into the renewable energy sector, establishing a dual business model focused on high-end electronics and photovoltaic materials [12]. - The company has transitioned from a focus on nano metal powder technology to a broader product range, including copper paste for photovoltaic applications, which is expected to contribute significantly to future revenues [12][28]. 2. AI Server-Driven MLCC High-End Market - The MLCC industry is entering a new growth cycle, with a projected global market size increase of 7% in 2024, reaching 104.2 billion CNY, and further growth expected in 2025 [38]. - AI servers are significantly increasing the demand for MLCCs, with usage per server expected to rise dramatically, thus driving the need for high-performance, small-sized components [40][41]. 3. Technical Strength and Market Position - The company has established itself as a hidden champion in electronic powder materials, with its PVD process creating significant barriers to entry for competitors [7][12]. - The company is deeply integrated with major clients, such as Samsung Electro-Mechanics, which accounts for over 50% of its sales, positioning it well to benefit from the recovery in high-end MLCC demand [7][12]. 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 249.5 million CNY in 2025, with a growth rate of 185%, and further increases projected for 2026 and 2027 [7]. - The report emphasizes the company's strong market position and technological capabilities, justifying the "Buy" rating and the target price based on future earnings potential [7][12].