早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 研究员：张毅驰 从业资格：F03108196 交易咨询资格：Z0021480 联系方式：15018531496 Morning session notice 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 5 日星期五 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铜主力合约 | 夜盘收盘价 | 元/吨，较上一交易日夜盘收盘价上涨 | CU2601 | 90960 | 0.2 | 9%。沪铜次主力合约 | 夜盘收于 | 元/吨，涨幅 | 0.22%。截止北京时间 | CU2602 | 90980 | 2 | | | 06:00，COMEX | 铜主力合约 | 收盘价为 | 美元/磅（按汇率 | 025-12-05 | HGZ25E | 5.2795 | 换算为 | 元/吨），较上一交易日下跌 | ...

Core Viewpoint - Jianbang High-Tech Co., Ltd. is attempting a second listing application on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange after its first attempt failed in May 2023, despite showing significant revenue growth from 1.759 billion yuan to 3.950 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024. However, the company faces challenges such as low gross margins below 4% and issues related to overdue bills, tax arrears, and credit defaults among its subsidiaries [1]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the first eight months of 2025 declined by 3.6% year-on-year, with profits dropping by 32.1%. The gross margin has been consistently low, recorded at 3.4%, 3.9%, and 3.3% for 2022-2024, and further decreased to 2.9% in the first eight months of 2025 [3]. - Jianbang High-Tech's operating cash flow has been negative for three consecutive years, totaling approximately 620 million yuan in net outflow from 2022 to 2024. The company's interest-bearing bank loans increased from 62.427 million yuan in 2022 to 206 million yuan in 2024, with the debt ratio rising from 57.8% in 2022 to 75.2% by August 2025 [4]. Business Structure and Market Position - The company heavily relies on a single product, with silver powder revenue accounting for over 97% of total revenue from 2022 to 2024. This dependency makes the company vulnerable to fluctuations in silver powder market demand and prices [5]. - Jianbang High-Tech's market position is declining, with its ranking in China's photovoltaic silver powder sales dropping from first place in 2022 to third place in 2024, and its market share decreasing from 10.1% to 9.8% [6]. Customer Concentration and Risks - The company has a high customer concentration, with the top five customers contributing 95.4%, 94.8%, and 84.4% of revenue from 2022 to 2024. The top two customers accounted for 87.9%, 82.8%, and 63.1% of revenue, but their orders significantly decreased in 2025, leading to a drop in revenue and profits [7]. - Jianbang High-Tech plans to use raised funds to develop alternative materials like copper powder, expand into non-photovoltaic applications, and enter the Middle Eastern market. The involvement of notable investors such as Saudi Aramco and Jinko Energy is expected to provide resource backing [7].

Group 1 - The company's growth in the third quarter was primarily driven by increased production of copper powder, tin powder, 3D printing powder, and slurry products [2] - The company indicated that the growth in these products occurred to varying degrees [2] - There is a question regarding the sustainability of this growth moving forward [2]

Core Insights - The project for producing 1,000 tons of high-end conductive powder in Quzhou is fully underway, aiming to replace imported products with domestically produced alternatives [1][2] - The total investment for the project is approximately 1.072 billion yuan, with an expected annual sales revenue of 6.8 billion yuan and tax revenue of about 570 million yuan once fully operational [1][2] Company Overview - Zhejiang Jichu New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. is leading the project, which is backed by nearly 20 core technologies developed by a team from Harbin Institute of Technology (Shenzhen) [2] - The company plans to establish a research institute for advanced materials in the Intelligent Manufacturing New City to enhance collaboration with Harbin Institute of Technology (Shenzhen) [2] Industry Context - High-end conductive powders are essential materials in photovoltaic cells, chip packaging, and electronic components, with a market size estimated between 30 billion yuan and 50 billion yuan [1] - The domestic market for high-end (nano-level) silver and copper powders is primarily reliant on imports, indicating a significant opportunity for local production to meet growing demand [1][2] - The project is aligned with Quzhou's strategy to strengthen its industrial base in key sectors such as new energy, new materials, and integrated circuits [2]

Core Points - Guanghua Technology (002741) closed at 21.65 yuan on October 31, 2025, with a 2.07% increase and a turnover rate of 7.69% [1] - The total trading volume was 327,700 hands, with a transaction amount of 722 million yuan [1] Trading Information - On October 31, the net outflow of funds from major investors was 7.98 million yuan, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 28.40 million yuan [2][4] - A significant block trade occurred on the same day, with a discount of 10.02%, totaling 2.0454 million yuan [3][4] Company Responses - The company has received inquiries regarding its lithium sulfide purity and has stated that it customizes specialized chemicals based on client requirements [3] - The company has not confirmed any ongoing investigations by the regulatory authority and advised investors to check official announcements for updates [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Shuangfei Group, is a significant player in the domestic self-lubricating bearing sector, showcasing technological barriers in self-lubricating materials, indicating investment potential [1] Group 1: Business Performance - In Q3 2025, Shuangfei Group achieved a revenue of 669 million yuan, ranking 50th among 82 companies in the industry [2] - The main business composition includes sliding bearings at 279 million yuan (63.11%), composite materials at 94.22 million yuan (21.28%), copper powder at 47.38 million yuan (10.70%), hydraulic parts at 14.67 million yuan (3.31%), and others at 7.05 million yuan (1.59%) [2] - The net profit for the same period was 46.85 million yuan, placing the company 45th in the industry [2] Group 2: Financial Ratios - As of Q3 2025, Shuangfei Group's debt-to-asset ratio was 18.67%, slightly up from 18.60% year-on-year, significantly lower than the industry average of 39.81% [3] - The gross profit margin for the period was 24.67%, down from 25.63% year-on-year, but still above the industry average of 22.64% [3] Group 3: Executive Compensation - The chairman, Zhou Yin Chun, received a salary of 715,800 yuan in 2024, an increase of 31,500 yuan from 2023 [4] Group 4: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of A-share shareholders decreased by 2.45% to 20,500, while the average number of circulating A-shares held per account increased by 2.51% to 6,104.35 [5]

Group 1 - The quantum computing industry is at a turning point, with large-scale applications expected between 2027 and 2029, driven by hardware iteration speed which determines the scarcity premium of certain stocks [1] - An invisible champion behind the AI explosion is actively developing copper powder, silver-coated copper powder, and nano-silicon powder, targeting new markets in photovoltaics and solid-state batteries, with analysts predicting a high certainty of performance reversal for the company: a net profit CAGR exceeding 80% from 2025 to 2027, with a PE valuation only one-third of the industry average [1]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The global non-ferrous metals market is driven by multiple factors, with gold surpassing $4,000 and LME copper exceeding $10,800. The expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and geopolitical risk aversion support precious metals, while the bull market for upstream resources continues, leading investors to focus on price sustainability and valuation attractiveness [1][2]. Precious Metals - The gold market is driven by central bank purchases, Asian and Western buying, and the potential crisis of Federal Reserve independence, which may become a new narrative. The introduction of digital gold is expected to bring incremental buying pressure, with silver being undervalued and a target price above $66 per ounce during periods of liquidity easing [1][14][15][16]. Rare Earths - China's tightening of rare earth export controls aims to consolidate its competitiveness in the global rare earth industry, keeping high-value-added segments domestically. A slight recovery in rare earth prices is expected in Q4, with a long-term upward trend anticipated [1][4]. Energy Metals - China has implemented export controls on lithium and artificial graphite, further strengthening the competitiveness of the industry chain. The valuation of upstream lithium mining companies is expected to rise, with the Yichun lithium mine report submitted but grade still to be determined. The demand for energy storage and the development of solid-state batteries present growth opportunities for the lithium industry [1][5][6][7][8]. Cobalt Market - The Democratic Republic of Congo's new quota policy has reinforced both short-term and long-term logic in the cobalt market, with a quota of 96,600 tons. The demand for cobalt remains rigid, and prices are expected to have further upside potential [1][11][12]. Tin Market - Indonesia's tightening of tin industry policies may lead to supply constraints, pushing prices higher. The global tin supply is expected to have a shortfall due to low production from major producing countries, supporting a long-term bullish outlook for tin prices [1][19][20]. Copper Market - Recent events, including the Grasberg mine accident and supply guidance downgrades, have led to a reduction in copper supply, with a projected shortage of around 400,000 tons next year. This is expected to support further increases in copper prices [1][21][22]. Smelting Industry - The future of the smelting industry is influenced by anti-overcapacity policies and expectations of rising processing fees. Some smaller smelting plants are expected to be eliminated, which will enhance processing fees and stimulate profit recovery [1][23]. Aluminum Market - The electrolytic aluminum market has been relatively flat due to weak seasonal demand. However, expectations of interest rate cuts and PMI recovery may drive prices up in Q4. The price center for electrolytic aluminum is projected to be around 20,500 RMB/ton [1][24][25]. Company Recommendations - Companies to watch include Ganfeng Lithium and Huayou Cobalt for their strong performance in the lithium and cobalt sectors, respectively. Other notable mentions are Zijin Mining and Minmetals Resources for their potential in the copper market [1][10][22]. Future Outlook - The overall outlook for the non-ferrous metals industry remains positive, with various factors such as supply constraints, policy changes, and technological advancements driving growth across different segments [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32].

Core Insights - The increasing power consumption of AI servers driven by high computing capabilities poses significant challenges to overall stability, necessitating the widespread use of more advanced MLCCs around high-performance chips and voltage regulation modules [1] - Nickel powder, a key internal electrode material in MLCCs, is evolving towards smaller particle sizes, higher purity, and high-temperature resistance to meet the demands of AI server development [1] - The company has achieved mass production of nickel powder with a particle size of 80nm, maintaining a global supply advantage, and has signed long-term agreements with key clients to secure future supply [1] Industry Developments - The photovoltaic sector is witnessing accelerated validation and mass production of BC and HJT battery modules, with the company's copper powder and silver-coated copper powder expected to see significant volume growth starting in 2026 [2] - The company is also producing nano-silicon powder using the PVD method for silicon-carbon battery anodes, with trials underway with multiple domestic and international clients, indicating potential for future mass production as the application of silicon-carbon anodes becomes more widespread [2] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for the company are projected at 1.195 billion, 2.210 billion, and 3.181 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 245 million, 612 million, and 911 million yuan respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 63, 25, and 17 times [2]

Core Viewpoint - 博迁新材 has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Company X, projecting sales of 5420 to 6495 tons of nickel powder from August 2025 to December 2029, with estimated sales revenue of approximately 43 to 50 billion yuan [1] Company Summary - 博迁新材 was established in November 2010 and went public in December 2020, focusing on the R&D, production, and sales of high-end metal powder materials for electronics [1] - The company’s main products include nano and sub-micron nickel powder, copper powder, and silver powder, with nickel powder primarily used in the production of MLCCs and applications in consumer electronics and automotive electronics [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, 博迁新材 achieved operating revenue of 945 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.22%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 87.48 million yuan, marking a return to profitability [1] - Nickel-based product revenue in 2024 was 685 million yuan, up 36.85%, with a gross margin increase of 6 percentage points to 24.36% [2] - Copper-based product revenue grew by 56.35% to 122 million yuan, with a gross margin increase of 3.53 percentage points to 18.63% [2] - Export revenue reached 574 million yuan in 2024, a 50.27% increase, with a gross margin of 30.26% [2] - Domestic sales revenue was 284 million yuan, up 26.35% [2] - In the first half of 2025, 博迁新材 reported operating revenue of 519 million yuan, an 18.30% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 106 million yuan, a significant growth of 93.34% [2] Industry Insights - The performance of 博迁新材 is closely linked to the demand for MLCCs, with the MLCC industry entering a new growth cycle after hitting bottom in 2023 [3] - The global MLCC market is projected to grow by 7% year-on-year to 104.2 billion yuan in 2024, with expectations to reach 112 billion yuan in 2025 [3] - 博迁新材 is expected to benefit from the domestic substitution trend in high-end nickel powder, supported by its advantages in PVD technology and increasing shipment ratios of 80nm products [3]