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宏川智慧(002930):1Q25盈利能力下滑,静待需求改善
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2][5][13] Core Views - The company experienced a decline in profitability in 1Q25, with a focus on awaiting demand recovery [1][4] - The petrochemical logistics sector is facing downward pressure due to reduced demand, impacting the company's performance [4][5] - Long-term structural characteristics of the petrochemical industry in China suggest sustained demand for cross-regional transportation and storage [4] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported revenue of Rmb1,450 million, a decrease of 6.27% year-on-year, and a net profit of Rmb158 million, down 46.57% year-on-year [3][12] - For 1Q25, revenue was Rmb323 million, down 14.98% year-on-year, with a net profit of Rmb21 million, down 65.10% year-on-year [3][12] - The company's gross margin in 1Q25 was 43.94%, a decline of 8.76 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin was 6.49%, down 9.32 percentage points year-on-year [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit is Rmb188 million for FY25, Rmb247 million for FY26, and Rmb294 million for FY27, with corresponding EPS of Rmb0.41, Rmb0.54, and Rmb0.64 respectively [5][13] - The target price is set at Rmb10.27 based on a 25x FY25E P/E ratio [5][13]