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《特殊商品》日报-20250616
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-16 03:12
Group 1: Natural Rubber Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Under the expectation of increasing supply and weak demand, the subsequent rubber price is expected to remain weak. Hold the short position at 14,000 and pay attention to the raw material supply in each producing area and macro - event disturbances [1][2] Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On June 13, the price of Yunnan state - owned full - latex (SCRWF) in Shanghai was 13,900 yuan/ton, up 0.36% from the previous day. The full - milk basis (switched to the 2509 contract) decreased by 90.57% [1] - **Inter - month Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 2.91% to - 835 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 10.00% to - 50 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 2.20% to 890 yuan/ton [1] - **Fundamental Data**: In April, Thailand's production decreased by 29.16% to 105,700 tons; Indonesia's production decreased by 7.26% to 194,100 tons; India's production decreased by 14.34% to 45,400 tons; China's production increased by 42,300 tons to 58,100 tons. The weekly开工率 of semi - steel tires was 77.98%, up 4.12 percentage points; the weekly开工率 of full - steel tires was 61.24%, down 2.23 percentage points. In April, domestic tire production decreased by 5.07% to 102.002 million pieces; tire export volume decreased by 7.87% to 57.39 million pieces; natural rubber import volume decreased by 11.93% to 523,200 tons [1] - **Inventory Change**: The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.80% to 614,584 tons; the natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory on the SHFE increased by 59.45% to 34,876 tons [1] Group 2: Glass and Soda Ash Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - **Soda Ash**: The supply is gradually recovering, the surplus pattern is obvious. Although there is still some profit for soda ash plants, the overall demand has not increased significantly. After the maintenance, inventory accumulation may accelerate. Hold the previous short positions [3] - **Glass**: After entering the summer rainy season in June, the demand will slow down again. The glass industry still faces over - supply pressure. Wait for more cold - repair to be realized for a real turnaround in the market. Adopt a short - term bearish strategy [3] Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: On June 13, the North China quotation was 1,140 yuan/ton, down 0.87%; the 05 basis decreased by 8.70% [3] - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The North China quotation remained unchanged at 1,400 yuan/ton; the 05 basis increased by 4.26% [3] - **Supply Volume**: The soda ash production rate increased by 8.06% to 84.90%; the weekly soda ash output increased by 8.04% to 740,100 tons; the float glass daily melting volume decreased by 0.70% to 155,700 tons; the photovoltaic daily melting volume decreased by 1.00% to 98,990 tons [3] - **Inventory**: The glass factory warehouse increased by 2.84% to 69.685 million weight boxes; the soda ash factory warehouse increased by 3.82% to 1.6863 million tons; the soda ash delivery warehouse decreased by 5.87% to 327,100 tons; the glass factory's soda ash inventory days increased by 15.91% to 21 days [3] - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year growth rate of new construction area was - 18.13%, an increase of 2.99 percentage points; the construction area decreased by 7.56% to - 33.33%; the completion area increased by 15.67% to - 11.68%; the sales area increased by 12.13% to - 1.55% [3] Group 3: Industrial Silicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Although the demand has recovered to some extent, the supply is still increasing. In June, industrial silicon still faces a weak fundamental situation of oversupply, and the price is under pressure. However, the recent rebound in coal prices provides some support, and the price may fluctuate at a low level [4] Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: On June 13, the price of East China oxygen - passing S15530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 8,150 yuan/ton; the basis increased by 17.80% [4] - **Inter - month Spread**: The 2506 - 2507 spread decreased by 29480.00% to - 7345 yuan/ton; the 2507 - 2508 spread increased by 40.00% [4] - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In May, the national industrial silicon output increased by 2.29% to 307,700 tons; the Xinjiang output decreased by 2.60% to 163,100 tons; the Yunnan output decreased by 25.43% to 10,000 tons; the Sichuan output increased by 109.47% to 23,700 tons; the Inner Mongolia output increased by 4.78% to 46,100 tons; the Ningxia output increased by 17.50% to 23,500 tons; the 97 - silicon output decreased by 60.00% to 4,800 tons; the recycled silicon output increased by 3.12% to 16,500 tons; the organic silicon DMC output increased by 6.48% to 184,000 tons; the polysilicon output increased by 0.73% to 96,100 tons; the recycled aluminum alloy output decreased by 0.66% to 606,000 tons; the industrial silicon export volume in April increased by 1.64% to 60,500 tons [4] - **Inventory Change**: The Xinjiang factory warehouse inventory decreased by 2.15% to 186,700 tons; the Yunnan factory warehouse inventory increased by 2.79% to 25,800 tons; the social inventory decreased by 2.56% to 572,000 tons; the warehouse inventory decreased by 0.77% to 289,600 tons; the non - warehouse inventory decreased by 4.32% to 282,400 tons [4] Group 4: Polysilicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Last week, the polysilicon price was under pressure due to increased supply and falling spot prices. Although the production of polysilicon and silicon wafers has increased this week, the growth rate of polysilicon production is greater, leading to inventory accumulation and price - falling pressure. Hold short positions cautiously and pay attention to the spread structure and polysilicon production. If the polysilicon production increases, it is beneficial for the arbitrage of buying industrial silicon and shorting polysilicon [5] Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On June 13, the average price of N - type re -投料 decreased by 1.39% to 35,500 yuan/ton; the N - type material basis (average price) decreased by 25.26% [5] - **Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads**: The PS2506 contract price increased by 0.33% to 33,695; the PS2506 - PS2507 spread decreased by 22.38% [5] - **Fundamental Data (Weekly)**: The silicon wafer production increased by 0.46% to 13.1 GW; the polysilicon production increased by 8.18% to 23,800 tons [5] - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In May, the polysilicon production increased by 0.73% to 96,100 tons; the polysilicon import volume in April decreased by 7.10% to 2,900 tons; the polysilicon export volume in April decreased by 10.40% to 2,000 tons; the polysilicon net export volume remained unchanged at - 900 tons; the silicon wafer production in May decreased by 0.50% to 58.06 GW; the silicon wafer import volume in April decreased by 32.03% to 600 tons; the silicon wafer export volume in April increased by 28.29% to 5,900 tons; the silicon wafer net export volume in April increased by 42.57% to 5,300 tons; the silicon wafer demand in May decreased by 8.10% to 60.61 GW [5] - **Inventory Change**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 2.23% to 275,000 tons; the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 3.40% to 19.34 GW [5]
《特殊商品》日报-20250613
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-13 03:10
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the documents. 2. Core Views of the Reports Natural Rubber - Under the expectation of increasing supply and weakening demand, the subsequent rubber price is expected to remain weak. Adopt a strategy of shorting on rebounds above 14,000. Pay attention to the raw material supply in each producing area and macro - event disturbances [2]. Industrial Silicon - Although the demand for industrial silicon is expected to improve in June, the supply increase is larger, and the inventory is expected to accumulate, putting pressure on the price. However, due to the low absolute price and the enhancement of disk procurement, there may be price rebounds, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. If the polysilicon production increases, it is beneficial for the arbitrage of buying industrial silicon and shorting polysilicon [5]. Polysilicon - In June, there is no obvious improvement in the fundamentals. There is a high probability of a decline in demand, and the supply does not decrease accordingly, so there is a risk of inventory accumulation. Hold short positions cautiously and pay attention to the spread structure and polysilicon production. If the polysilicon production increases, it is beneficial for the arbitrage of buying industrial silicon and shorting polysilicon [6]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Soda Ash**: The supply is gradually recovering, the demand has no obvious growth, and the inventory is under pressure after the maintenance. Continue to hold previous short positions and track the implementation of maintenance [7]. - **Glass**: It still faces over - supply pressure, and the price may continue to be under pressure. Adopt a short - term bearish strategy and wait for more cold - repair implementation to bring a real reversal [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis - Yunnan Guofu all - latex rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai rose from 13,750 to 13,850, an increase of 0.73%. The all - latex basis (switched to the 2509 contract) increased by 289.29% [2]. Monthly Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 2.38%, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 25.00%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 3.41% [2]. Fundamental Data - In April, Thailand's production decreased by 29.16%, Indonesia's by 7.26%, and India's by 14.34%, while China's increased by 42.30 thousand tons. The weekly开工率 of semi - steel tires increased by 4.12 percentage points, and that of all - steel tires decreased by 2.23 percentage points. Domestic tire production in April decreased by 5.07%, tire exports by 7.87%, and natural rubber imports by 11.93%. In May, the import of natural and synthetic rubber decreased by 12.03% [2]. Inventory Changes - The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.80%, and the natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory on the SHFE increased by 23.99% [2]. Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Basis - The prices of East China oxygen - permeable SI5530, SI4210, and Xinjiang 99 silicon remained unchanged. The basis of relevant varieties decreased, with the largest decline of 29.90% [5]. Monthly Spreads - The spreads of 2506 - 2507, 2507 - 2508, 2509 - 2510, and 2510 - 2511 increased, with the largest increase of 266.67% [5]. Fundamental Data - In April, the national industrial silicon production decreased by 12.10%, Xinjiang's by 20.55%, Yunnan's increased by 9.35%, and Sichuan's increased by 145.65%. The national开工率 decreased by 11.37%, Xinjiang's by 22.18%, Yunnan's by 9.21%, and Sichuan's increased by 1389.80%. In May, the production of silicone DMC increased by 6.48%, polysilicon by 0.73%, and recycled aluminum alloy decreased by 0.66%. The industrial silicon export in April increased by 1.64% [5]. Inventory Changes - Xinjiang's factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 2.15%, Yunnan's increased by 2.79%, Sichuan's increased by 0.44%, the social inventory decreased by 2.56%, the warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.51%, and the non - warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 4.59% [5]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - The average prices of N - type re - feedstock, N - type granular silicon decreased by 1.37% and 1.47% respectively, while the average price of P - type cauliflower material remained unchanged. The basis of relevant materials increased, with the largest increase of 8.65% [6]. Futures Prices and Monthly Spreads - The PS2506 contract decreased by 1.96%. The spreads of PS2506 - PS2507 increased by 22.00%, while others decreased, with the largest decline of 40.85% [6]. Fundamental Data - Weekly silicon wafer production increased by 0.46%, and polysilicon production increased by 8.18%. In May, polysilicon production increased by 0.73%. In April, polysilicon imports decreased by 7.10%, exports decreased by 10.40%, silicon wafer imports decreased by 32.03%, exports increased by 28.29%, and the net export of silicon wafers increased by 42.57%. In May, the silicon wafer demand decreased by 8.10% [6]. Inventory Changes - Polysilicon inventory increased by 2.23%, and silicon wafer inventory decreased by 3.40%. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged [6]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Related Prices and Spreads - The spot prices in North China, East China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged. The glass 2505 contract decreased by 1.37%, and the 2509 contract decreased by 1.70%. The 05 basis increased by 27.78% [7]. Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads - The spot prices in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The soda ash 2505 contract decreased by 1.06%, and the 2509 contract decreased by 2.20%. The 05 basis increased by 7.43% [7]. Supply - The soda ash operating rate increased by 8.06%, the weekly soda ash production increased by 8.04%, the float glass daily melting volume decreased by 0.70%, the photovoltaic daily melting volume decreased by 1.00%, and the 3.2mm coating mainstream price decreased by 4.76% [7]. Inventory - The glass factory - warehouse inventory increased by 2.84%, the soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 3.82%, the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory decreased by 5.87%, and the glass factory's soda ash inventory days increased by 15.91% [7]. Real Estate Data Year - on - Year - The new construction area increased by 2.99%, the construction area decreased by 7.56%, the completion area increased by 15.67%, and the sales area increased by 12.13% [7].