Group 1 - The article emphasizes that stable capital market policies provide A-shares with a "buffer" against macro disturbances, suggesting a shift in focus from macro analysis to strong sector rhythm judgment for short-term market assessment [3][9]. - It indicates that the improvement in the supply-demand structure of A-shares may be delayed, while the verification process of China's global competitiveness is also a process of optimistic expectation fermentation [3][9]. - The article highlights that Hong Kong stocks are a potential leading market in a bull market scenario, with significant liquidity improvements being a historical change [3][20]. Group 2 - The article discusses the expected global economic conditions over the next 3-6 months, indicating that the global fundamentals will still be affected by tariffs and high interest rates, with a preference for Chinese stocks and technology growth stocks [15][20]. - It mentions that the market may enter a phase where the central tendency is elevated, suggesting that the market is in the final stage before a significant upward movement [5][8]. - The article provides insights into the potential return rates for the Hang Seng Index in 2025, with various scenarios based on earnings growth and U.S. Treasury yields, indicating a high implied equity risk premium [20][21].

May 13, 2025 10:44 AM GMT 中国的新兴前沿 前沿 28：投资于不断变化的趋 势 我们继续推出中国新兴前沿系列文章，引入我们的六要素框 架，以了解支撑产业升级故事的成功要素，并确定未来的投 资机会。 要点 有兴趣探索中国具备结构性竞争优势的新兴行业的投资者应考虑阅读本报告。本 报告概述了我们如何识别中国在面临债务、通缩、人口变化和全球多极化环境等 挑战下有望表现出色的行业。这些技术支持的新兴前沿将远超出我们今天的想 象，因此，我们理解我们的框架和选择过程的局限性，但持续跟踪这些趋势很重 要。我们还纳入了未上市的新兴初创企业，并进行了监测和跟进分析。 中国对产业升级和前沿产业的关注持续不减。在本系列的第一部分 Navigating the Path to Industry Upgrades 中，我们研究了中国的工业演变、前沿和关键产业如何 推动生产力以及发达市场的经验教训。在本报告中，我们探讨了中国先进供应链 和制造业的重大机遇，包括整个潜在市场。 中国新兴前沿投资策略⸺筛选产业升级机会：我们看到了机械、汽车和新能源领 域的竞争优势，以及半导体、航空航天、人工智能、软件、制药、人形机器人 ...