Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [5] - Inter - delivery spread: None [5] - Cross - variety: None [5] - Spot - futures: None [5] - Options: None [5] Core Viewpoints - The futures market is still operating weakly, but the spot supply - demand pattern is good with decreasing inventory and production. Lithium carbonate production from mica has decreased, but lithium carbonate production from spodumene has made up for it. There is uncertainty in the subsequent approval of other mines. The consumption side provides support, and lithium carbonate is expected to be supported under the influence of mine - end disturbances, but the market fluctuates greatly [3]. Market Analysis - On September 1, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2511 opened at 77,000 yuan/ton and closed at 75,560 yuan/ton, a - 2.73% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 540,295 lots, and the open interest was 339,133 lots (346,605 lots the previous day). The current basis is 2,530 yuan/ton. The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 31,197 lots, a change of 1,310 lots from the previous day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 76,500 - 80,200 yuan/ton, a - 1,300 yuan/ton change from the previous day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 75,350 - 76,750 yuan/ton, also a - 1,300 yuan/ton change. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 880 US dollars/ton, a - 15 US dollars/ton change from the previous day [1]. - The weekly production decreased by 108 tons to 19,030 tons. The production from lithium spodumene increased slightly, while the production from mica decreased slightly. The weekly inventory decreased by 407 tons to 141,366 tons. Downstream inventory continued to increase, intermediate inventory increased slightly, and smelter inventory decreased [2]. Strategy - Pay attention to the mine - end operation situation. Although the lithium carbonate market is expected to be supported, the market fluctuates greatly, and participants need to manage risks [3].

Core Insights - The article highlights the challenges faced by small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the lithium carbonate market due to significant price volatility and the strategies employed by Company D to mitigate these risks through futures risk management tools [1][2]. Project Background - The demand for lithium carbonate, a key raw material for lithium batteries, has seen exponential growth amid the implementation of the "dual carbon" strategy, but prices have fluctuated over 50% in 2023, dropping from 500,000 yuan per ton to below 200,000 yuan [2]. - Company D, a small and medium-sized enterprise in the lithium carbonate processing sector, faces high R&D costs and intense market competition, exacerbated by price volatility leading to unstable profits and challenging inventory management [2]. Service Process - Company D plans to sell battery-grade lithium carbonate that meets futures delivery standards in 2024 but faces high costs and price fluctuations. A futures risk management company conducted a comprehensive analysis of the lithium carbonate supply chain, determining that a cost of 6,500 yuan per ton would cover all expenses, providing a safety net for the company [3]. Strategic Approach - The company implemented a strategy of dividing sales over 20 trading days and using dynamic pricing based on the previous day's SMM average price to mitigate market impact and align with market trends [4][6]. Risk Management - A three-tiered risk management approach was adopted, which included: 1. Diversifying sales over 20 trading days to reduce price impact [7]. 2. Dynamic pricing to hedge when market prices exceed spot prices [7]. 3. Multi-channel monetization to capture market lows and reduce risks [7]. Final Outcomes - Through this collaboration, Company D successfully locked in profits from the sale of 90 tons of lithium carbonate, avoiding losses exceeding 1 million yuan due to price fluctuations, ensuring stable income for operational costs [8]. Innovative Model - The "non-standard to standard + forward pricing" model creatively integrates futures hedging tools with actual production needs, addressing the challenges of non-standard product circulation and pricing while promoting standardization in the processing sector [9]. Ecological Value - The case of Company D serves as a replicable risk management template for SMEs in the new energy industry, enhancing market competitiveness and supporting the dual carbon goals by reducing costs and increasing efficiency in the lithium battery sector [10].