Q4 2025 量化研究 私人资本回报指标 内容 概览3 私募股权 6 风险投资 9 私人债务12 基础设施 15 自然资源 18 及时的私募市场表现洞察 Q4 2025 私募资本回报指标 机构研究组 苏珊·胡 量化分析师 susan.hu@pitchbook.com 雅各比·富尔顿 量化分析师 jacobie.fullerton@pitchbook.com pbinstitutionalresearch@pitchbook.com 发布于 2026 年 2 月 13 日 For the most up-to-date PitchBook Private Capit al Barometers, please refer to our 洞察页 . 2 Q4 2025 私募资本回报指标 概述 The PitchBook Private Capital Return Barometers are a series of models designed to assess the current return environment of U.S. private marke t funds, including ...

Group 1 - The concept of "resilience" has become a key focus for investors in the current uncertain market environment, with "portfolio resilience" identified as the top priority for investors through 2026 [1] - Despite a seemingly calm market with strong public equity performance and moderate bond yields, underlying complexities such as persistent inflation, increasing fiscal pressures, and geopolitical tensions are testing global stability [1] - The private equity sector is undergoing a recalibration phase, with fundraising and transaction activities remaining below pre-2022 levels, while exit channels are narrowing and holding periods are extending [1] Group 2 - Strategies that can navigate three complementary sources of resilience—local leaders, transformational growth, and diversified innovation—are favored in the current market [2] - Companies rooted in local markets benefit from stable demand and shorter supply chains, making them less susceptible to trade frictions, thus enhancing portfolio resilience against geopolitical shocks [2] - The small to mid-market acquisitions, defined as transactions valued under $1 billion, are emerging as a resilience engine for private equity, offering attractive entry valuations that are 40%-50% lower than larger acquisitions and public small-cap peers [2] Group 3 - The demand for income-generating assets is increasing, particularly in the context of a recovering commercial real estate market, where U.S. property values have stabilized over the past year [3] - As policy interest rates begin to ease, transaction activity and financing demand in the commercial real estate sector are recovering, creating attractive opportunities for private lenders due to a significant gap in debt and equity supply [3] - Infrastructure debt is highlighted as a reliable source of stable, defensive returns, supported by steady capital demand and tangible asset backing [3] Group 4 - Insurance-linked securities (ILS) are becoming increasingly important for diversification, driven by their performance being linked to insured events rather than economic growth, thus having low correlation with market and credit cycles [4] - Energy transition infrastructure is identified as a prominent long-term investment theme, with potential for stable returns linked to inflation and premium growth, while renewable energy has become a cost-effective power source in many regions [4][5] - In Europe, investments in renewable energy infrastructure have reached approximately €600 billion, expected to double to around €1.3 trillion by the early 2030s, positioning renewable energy and energy transition infrastructure as dominant asset classes in the sector [5]

有限合伙人继续布局各类私募市场策略，伴随项目扩张和多元化分散配置，大多数有限合伙人的私募市 场目标配置正处于或低于目标水平。 2025年，83%的有限合伙人计划在私募市场策略中部署与去年相同或更多的资本，延续了过去三年以来 的积极趋势。配置方持续加强和普通合伙人更紧密的联系，同时也在建立与新普通合伙人的关系，以寻 求超额收益、专业化及多元化配置。 本报讯(记者毛艺融)日前，高盛资产管理发布2025年私募市场调研结果。该机构对超过250位普通合伙 人(GP)和有限合伙人(LP)开展的一项主题为"走出谷底？"的全球性调研显示，私募市场投资者整体对投 资环境更为乐观，并对通过各类退出途径释放流动性抱有更高的期待。较多有限合伙人对另类资产的配 置不足，正在将其投资项目扩充至新的策略和创新结构。 调查结果显示，有限合伙人考虑新机遇，投资情绪仍然积极。私募市场投资者情绪展现韧性，对实物资 产策略的情绪提振最为突出。投资者认为，未来一年基础设施、私募股权等领域的投资机遇将保持一致 或更好。 普通合伙人认为，估值仍是投入新项目最大的挑战。就退出而言，60%的受访者也认为估值是最主要的 挑战，仅次于宏观不确定性。普通合伙人预计 ...

点击图片查看大图 主要结论 聚焦过去一年，我们看到始于2020年3月的趋势仍在继续：待投资金和资产净值加速分化。2019年第四季 度，两者之间的差距约为5,000亿美元。到2024年第二季度，这一差距扩大到了1.2万亿美元。除了2022 年内短暂几个季度走势平稳外，这一趋势自2020年起就未曾中断过。 我们重新审视了全球各地区及各类投资风格的待投资金(dry powder)/资产净值(NAV) 图表分析，旨在揭 示整个市场的近期趋势，并探究影响资金流动关系的深层因素。 虽然我们将这些数据汇总在一张图表上，但资产净值和待投资金并不直接相关，因为它们可能独立发生变 化。根据我们的分析，两者之间的关系会随着时间的推移而变化。纵观过去30年，我们看到了三个变化 阶段：1996年至2009年期间二者成对等态势，然后在2010年产生了差距并在接下来的10年里保持稳定， 接着是新冠疫情后资产净值快速增长并一直持续到现在。 有无数因素会影响这些数据，但若仔细审视图表，就会发现主要因素是2000年到2009年私募市场的整体 增长、2008年的金融危机，以及2020年新冠疫情的消退。 未来展望 如上所述，资产净值的增长在本世纪2 ...