Group 1: Report Information - Industry: Pulp [1] - Date: November 28, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Pulp futures contract 01 had a previous settlement price of 5,218 yuan/ton and a closing price of 5,184 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.65%. The intended transaction price range of coniferous pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 4,750 - 6,400 yuan/ton, stable compared to the previous trading day. The Shandong Yinxing offer was 5,480 - 5,500 yuan/ton [7] - The ex - factory price of imported wood pulp in November was unclear, with more rumors of price increases. Market players still had a wait - and - see attitude. In October, the chemical pulp shipments of 20 pulp - producing countries decreased by 3.5% year - on - year, coniferous pulp by 7.1%, and broadleaf pulp by 1.9%. Shipments to the Chinese market decreased significantly. In October, the European wood pulp inventory was 703,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.8% and a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. European wood pulp consumption was 844,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.8% and a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. As of November 20, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports was 2.0104 million tons, a 1.71% increase from the previous week [8] - Downstream base paper prices had limited increases, with most remaining stable. The price increase of white cardboard slowed down. Paper mills faced processing pressure, had limited acceptance of high - priced raw materials, and poor restocking intentions. Supply pressure showed signs of weakening, but downstream profit margins were insufficient, leading to poor cost transmission. Pulp prices fell under pressure at high levels and were expected to fluctuate in a wide range at low levels [8] Group 3: Industry News - A Russian company expressed its willingness to invest in Indonesia's pulp and paper industry. On November 20, 2025, the CEO of Indonesia's Dana Tarra Group met with Russia's Sistema Group. The Indonesian government was ready to promote cooperation between the two sides by matching potential Russian investors with suitable local enterprises. The meeting was in the early stage, and potential investment amounts had not been discussed. Relevant license approvals and technical evaluations were in progress [9]

Group 1 - The decline in corrugated cardboard sales is seen as a non-traditional economic indicator, suggesting potential retail demand adjustments in the near future [1] - U.S. cardboard shipments have reached their lowest second-quarter level since 2015, with a reported 5% year-over-year decline in daily shipments from International Paper [1] - Smurfit Kappa Group reported a 4.5% drop in North American corrugated cardboard sales, the largest decline across all its operational regions [1] Group 2 - The seasonal nature of the cardboard industry allows it to reflect real-time purchasing and manufacturing activities, serving as an early warning signal for retail spending [2] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has led companies to hesitate in stockpiling large volumes of packaging materials, impacting packaging demand [2] - FedEx and UPS have not updated their annual guidance due to the unclear situation, with UPS noting that consumer confidence is at a near historical low [2] Group 3 - There is a lack of organic growth in consumer goods, with promotions like "buy two, get one free" indicating weak demand [3] - Low housing transaction volumes are leading to decreased purchases of large items that require packaging, such as refrigerators and sofas [3] - The surge in packaging demand during the early COVID-19 pandemic was a temporary phenomenon, and the industry continues to face challenges from high costs and outdated facilities [3] Group 4 - The closure of a factory by International Paper has significant local economic impacts, including school closures due to reduced tax revenue [4] - There is hope that a revival in U.S. manufacturing could boost local product transportation and packaging demand, but this is contingent on offsetting the effects of reduced imports [4] - The overall outlook for cardboard manufacturers remains pessimistic, with all tracked indicators pointing towards a challenging environment [4]

Core Insights - The demand for caustic soda in Brazil is experiencing rapid growth, significantly reshaping the domestic industry landscape and impacting international caustic soda trade, particularly U.S. exports [1][2] - The pulp and paper industry is the primary consumer of caustic soda in Brazil, showing robust development and accounting for nearly 10% of global caustic soda consumption [1] - From 2022 to 2027, the pulp and paper sector in Central and South America is expected to see an annual growth rate of 8.2% in caustic soda demand, potentially becoming the largest application area for caustic soda [1] Industry Developments - Klabin's II phase project at the Piracicaba plant in São Paulo, which is the largest corrugated cardboard packaging factory in the Americas, aims to enhance the integration of paper into packaging products [1] - The Projeto Cerrado project by Suzano, the world's largest pulp producer, features the largest single fiber production line globally, with an annual capacity of 2.55 million tons and a total investment of 22.2 billion Brazilian Reais [1] - Brazil's reliance on U.S. caustic soda imports has increased, with the U.S. becoming the largest supplier, accounting for 50% of Brazil's caustic soda imports last year, and this share rose to over 60% in January [2] Market Dynamics - The expansion of the caustic soda usage in Brazil is largely dependent on imports, with U.S. suppliers providing stable and competitively priced sources [2] - U.S. companies like OxyVinyls and Olin are advancing their caustic soda production capacity, contributing to a surplus in the domestic market, which enhances price competitiveness and supply flexibility for exports [2]