Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Report's Core View - The fundamentals of pulp are strongly driven, but commodity futures are weak. It is expected that pulp futures will fluctuate [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - Futures prices: On August 18, 2025, SP2601 was 5476, down 0.90% day-on-day and up 0.07% week-on-week; SP2511 was 5308, down 0.23% day-on-day and up 0.08% week-on-week; SP2509 was 5200, down 0.84% day-on-day and down 0.04% week-on-week [1] - Spot prices: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5850, unchanged day-on-day and week-on-week; Russian Needle was 5300, unchanged day-on-day and up 0.95% week-on-week; Broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4200, unchanged day-on-day and up 1.20% week-on-week [1] - Foreign offers: Chilean Silver Star's foreign offer was 720, down 2.70% month-on-month; Brazilian Goldfish was 510, up 4.08% month-on-month; Chilean Venus was 620, unchanged month-on-month [1] - Import costs: Chilean Silver Star was 5884, down 2.68% month-on-month; Brazilian Goldfish was 4182, up 4.03% month-on-month; Chilean Venus was 5073, unchanged month-on-month [1] Pulp Fundamental Data Supply - Import volume in June 2025: Coniferous pulp was 67.8 tons, down 6.09% month-on-month compared to May; Broadleaf pulp was 143.5 tons, up 10.98% month-on-month compared to May [1] - Shipment volume to China in May 2025 was 140 tons, up 3.30% month-on-month compared to April [1] - Domestic production: Broadleaf pulp and Chemimechanical pulp showed fluctuations in different periods [1] - Supply-side news: Brazil's Suzano announced a $20/ton price increase in the Asian market in August 2025, and its commercial pulp production in the next 12 months will be about 3.5% lower than its annual nominal capacity; Asia Symbol announced a 150 yuan/ton increase in the acceptance price of broadleaf pulp, only for long-term contract customers; pulp foreign offers decreased in volume and increased in price [1] Demand - This week, the output of major finished paper increased slightly, but the prices of finished paper remained low, providing weak support for pulp overall [2] Inventory - As of August 14, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 209.9 tons, an increase of 5.1 tons from the previous period, a 2.5% month-on-month increase, showing an inventory accumulation trend [2] Pulp Valuation Data - On August 18, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was -6, with a quantile level of 0.68; the Silver Star basis was 544, with a quantile level of 0.857 [1] - On August 18, 2025, the import profit of Coniferous pulp Silver Star was -34, with a quantile level of 0.547; the import profit of Broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 18, with a quantile level of 0.653 [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp futures main contract SP2511 fluctuated and rose, with a pullback after reaching a high. In the later - stage outlook, it is recommended to wait for the end of the correction and consider a long - position strategy on dips as the market faces the transition between off - peak and peak seasons in late August [6][29] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Review - The pulp futures main contract SP2511 fluctuated and rose, with a pullback after reaching a high [6] 2. Fundamental Analysis - As of August 14, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp was 5779 yuan/ton, up 0.07% from last week, turning from a decline to stability; the weekly average price of imported hardwood pulp was 4163 yuan/ton, up 0.70% from last week, also turning from a decline to stability [10] - In July 2025, China imported 2.877 million tons of pulp, with an import value of 1.7652 billion US dollars and an average unit price of 613.56 US dollars/ton. From January to July, the cumulative import volume and value increased by 6.5% and 3.4% respectively compared with the same period last year [14] - As of August 14, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports was 2.0829 million tons, up 4.25% from last week, turning from a decline to an increase [17][29] - In June 2025, the total inventory in European ports increased by 1.87% month - on - month and 27.23% compared with June 2024. Inventory in most European countries' ports increased month - on - month [20] - Waste pulp consumption is the main consumption method of pulp in China, accounting for 63% of the total pulp consumption. As of August 14, the operating load rate of double - copper paper increased by 0.88 percentage points from last week; that of double - offset paper decreased by 0.50 percentage points; that of white cardboard increased by 5.34 percentage points; and that of household paper increased by 2.02 percentage points [24] 3. Future Outlook - As of August 14, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports was 2.0829 million tons, up 4.25% from last week, turning from a decline to an increase. The destocking rhythm has accelerated recently, and attention should be paid to the inflection point of port inventory [29] - In the new round of external quotations, the price of Indonesian hardwood pulp has increased. Suzano announced a 20 - dollar/ton increase in the Asian market for bleached eucalyptus hardwood pulp in August 2025, and the Brazilian eucalyptus hardwood pulp price also increased by 20 dollars/ton. Supported by the external cost, there is a certain sentiment of hoarding and price - holding among industry players, but the downstream paper mills have limited acceptance due to pressure on profit margins, resulting in a slight adjustment of pulp prices [29] - Starting from late August, the market faces the transition between off - peak and peak seasons, and the demand and purchasing sentiment may change. It is recommended to wait for the end of the correction and consider a long - position strategy on dips [29]

行业 纸浆日报 日期 2025 年 8 月 15 日 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635738 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 021-60635727 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 能源化工研究团队 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员:李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅多晶硅） 研究员 ...

供给端: 巴西Suzano宣布2025年8月亚洲市场价格上涨20美元/吨; 且其未来12个月运营周期的商品纸浆产量将比其每年的商品纸 浆名义产能下降约3.5%; 亚太森博宣布阔叶浆接单价格上调150元/吨，仅维持长协客户供应; 纸浆外盘量减价增。 需求端:本周主要成品纸产量小幅上涨;成品纸价格持续低迷,整体对纸浆支撑较弱。 库存端: 截止2025年8月7日,中国纸浆主流港口样本库存量: 204.8万吨，较上期去库5.7万吨，环比下降2.7%, 库存量在本周期 总结 呈现去库的走势。 策略:纸浆期货偏强运行。 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | | | | | | TG 国贸期货 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 24 | | | | | | | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | | | | 投资咨询号:Z0015194 | | | 2025/8/11 | | | 农产品研究中心 >> | | | | 杨璐琳 | 从业资格号:F3042528 | | | | | | 纸浆价格数据 ...

Group 1: Paper Pulp Price Data - Futures prices: SP2601 was 5404 with a daily increase of 0.15% and a weekly decrease of 2.53%; SP2605 was 5388 with a daily decrease of 0.37% and a weekly decrease of 0.07%; SP2509 was 5160 with a daily decrease of 0.15% and a weekly decrease of 3.98% [1] - Spot prices: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5850 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 1.18%; Russian Needle was 5180 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 4.43%; Hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4080 with a daily decrease of 0.97% and a weekly decrease of 1.69% [1] - Outer - disk quotes: Chilean Silver Star was 720 dollars with a monthly decrease of 2.70%; Chilean Star was 500 dollars with a monthly decrease of 10.71%; Chilean Venus was 620 dollars with no monthly change [1] - Import costs: Chilean Silver Star was 5884 with a monthly decrease of 2.68%; Chilean Star was 4101 with a monthly decrease of 10.60%; Chilean Venus was 5073 with no monthly change [1] Group 2: Paper Pulp Fundamental Data Supply - Import volume: In June 2025, coniferous pulp import volume was 67.8 tons, a 6.09% decrease from May; Hardwood pulp import volume data was not shown in a comparable way here [1] - Shipment volume: The shipment volume of paper pulp to China in May 2025 was 140 tons, a 3.3% increase from April [1] - Company offer: Chilean Arauco announced July wood pulp outer - disk quotes. Coniferous pulp Silver Star had no new offer; Venus was priced at 590 dollars per ton, and Uruguayan Hardwood pulp New Star was 500 dollars per ton [1] Demand - Main finished paper production: This week, the production of main finished papers decreased slightly, and paper prices were low, providing weak support for paper pulp [2] Inventory - As of July 31, 2025, the inventory of Chinese paper pulp main ports was 210.5 tons, a 3.8 - ton decrease from the previous period, a 1.8% decrease, showing a de - stocking trend [2] Group 3: Paper Pulp Valuation Data - Basis: On August 5, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 20 with a quantile level of 0.739; Silver Star basis was 690 with a quantile level of 0.914 [1] - Import profit: Coniferous pulp Silver Star's import profit was - 34 with a quantile level of 0.545; Hardwood pulp Goldfish was - 21 with a quantile level of 0.613 [1] Group 4: Strategy - This week, paper pulp futures returned to fundamental pricing and are expected to fluctuate widely between 5100 - 5400 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August, the pulp supply side is abundant while the improvement on the demand side is limited. With the policy and fundamentals presenting a mixed picture of bullish and bearish factors, there is a lack of a single - sided driving force. It is expected that the main futures contract will operate in a wide - range oscillation [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Pulp Price Analysis - **Spot Pulp Price Review**: In July, the spot market price of pulp showed a pattern of weak softwood pulp and strong hardwood pulp. The prices of softwood pulp such as Silver Star, Cariboo, and Northern Wood in Shandong decreased, while the prices of hardwood pulp like Goldfish, Bird, and Alpine increased. The prices of chemimechanical pulp, natural pulp, sugarcane pulp, and bamboo pulp were stable, and the price of reed pulp in Northeast China decreased [11][12]. - **Pulp Futures Market Technical Chart Analysis**: Since its listing in November 2018, the weighted monthly K - line chart of pulp futures has generally shown a converging triangle consolidation pattern. It is expected that the pulp price will continue to oscillate above the lower track of the converging triangle in August [15]. - **Pulp Futures - Spot Basis Comparison**: In July, the main pulp futures contract increased, and the overall increase in the spot price of wood pulp was less than that of the futures, so the basis discount margin decreased [19]. - **Log Futures Market Review**: In July, the log futures contract 2509 showed a continued oscillating rebound. The trading volume decreased slightly, and the open interest increased slightly [21]. 3.2 Pulp Supply - Side Analysis - **Pulp Supply - Demand Balance Forecast**: It is estimated that the pulp production in August will be 2.126 million tons, a 0.1% month - on - month increase, and the total supply will be 7.326 million tons, a 0.5% month - on - month increase [23]. - **Monthly Pulp Production**: In July 2025, the domestic pulp production increased slightly. The capacity utilization rate of hardwood pulp increased, while that of chemimechanical pulp decreased [25][30]. - **Pulp Import Volume**: In June 2025, the pulp import volume increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The import volume of softwood pulp decreased month - on - month, while that of hardwood pulp increased. The import volume of natural pulp decreased month - on - month, and that of chemimechanical pulp increased [31][34][37]. - **Pulp Import Average Price**: In June 2025, the average import price of pulp continued to decline slightly month - on - month. The average import price of hardwood pulp was basically flat month - on - month, and that of natural pulp increased slightly [39][44]. 3.3 Pulp Demand - Side Analysis - **Domestic Pulp Actual Consumption**: In July 2025, the actual consumption of domestic pulp increased [45]. - **Wood Pulp Usage**: In July 2025, the wood pulp usage in household paper and white cardboard increased month - on - month, while the wood pulp usage in offset paper and coated paper increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year [49][52]. - **Downstream Paper Production**: In July 2025, the monthly production of downstream household paper, offset paper, coated paper, and white cardboard all increased month - on - month [56][57][59][63]. - **Downstream Base Paper Spot Price Analysis**: In July, the spot prices of household paper and cultural paper continued to decline month - on - month, the prices of whiteboard paper and white cardboard decreased slightly month - on - month, the price of boxboard paper remained stable, and the price of corrugated paper decreased slightly [66][67][69]. 3.4 Pulp Inventory - Side Analysis - **Pulp Port Inventory**: In July, the overall port inventory showed a de - stocking trend, but the inventory in Qingdao Port increased. The inventories in Changshu Port and Gaolan Port decreased [71][75]. - **Futures Pulp Warehouse Receipts**: In July, the pulp futures warehouse receipts increased [76].

| 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | | | | | | ITG 国贸期货 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SAL. | | | | | | | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | | | | 投资咨询号:Z0015194 | | | 2025/8/1 | | | 农产品研究中心 >> | | | | 杨璐琳 | 从业资格号:F3042528 | | | | | | 纸浆价格数据 | | | | | | | | | | | 2025年7月31日 | | | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | 2025年7月31日 | OFF 日本に | 10 min | | -2. 24% | SP2601 | 5422 | -1. 45% | | | 针叶浆银星 | 5850 | -1. 18% | -1. 18% | | 期货价格 | SP2605 | 5338 | 0. 86% | 2. 10% | 现货价 | 针叶浆俄针 | 5300 | -2. 21% | -2. 21% | | SP25 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - Pulp futures are currently significantly affected by the macro - environment, and the commodity sentiment is expected to be volatile this week. It is recommended to observe cautiously [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On July 29, 2025, SP2601 was 5544, up 1.02% day - on - day and 0.76% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5406, down 0.55% day - on - day and up 0.96% week - on - week; SP2509 was 5374, up 0.26% day - on - day and 0.11% week - on - week [1]. - **Spot Prices**: On July 29, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5920, unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week; Russian Needle was 5420, down 0.55% day - on - day and 0.37% week - on - week; Broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4150, unchanged day - on - day and up 1.22% week - on - week [1]. - **Outer - disk Quotes (USD)**: In July, the outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star was 720, down 2.70% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 500, down 10.71% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 620, unchanged month - on - month [1]. - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5884, down 2.68% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 4101, down 10.60% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 5073, unchanged month - on - month [1]. Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In June 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 67.8 tons, down 6.09% month - on - month; broadleaf pulp was 143.5 tons, up 10.98% month - on - month. The pulp shipment volume to China in May was 140 tons, up 3.30% month - on - month [1]. - **Inventory**: As of July 24, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 214.3 tons, down 3.8 tons from the previous period, a 1.7% month - on - month decrease. The futures delivery warehouse inventory was 25.60 tons [1]. - **Demand**: The production of major finished papers decreased slightly this week, and the prices of finished papers remained low, providing weak support for pulp [1]. Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On July 29, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 46, with a quantile level of 0.796; the Silver Star basis was 546, with a quantile level of 0.864 [1]. - **Import Profit**: On July 29, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 36, with a quantile level of 0.684; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 49, with a quantile level of 0.69 [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp market shows a situation of increasing supply volume and decreasing price on the supply - side, weak support from the demand - side, and a slight inventory reduction trend. Pulp futures are currently greatly affected by the macro - environment, and with expected intense commodity sentiment this week, it is recommended to observe cautiously [1][2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On July 28, 2025, SP2601 was 5488 with a daily decrease of 1.51% and a weekly increase of 0.15%; SP2605 was 5376 with a daily increase of 1.38% and a weekly increase of 1.19%; SP2509 was 5360 with a daily decrease of 2.90% and a weekly increase of 0.49% [1] - **Spot Prices**: On July 28, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5920 (unchanged daily and weekly), Russian coniferous pulp was 5450 with a daily decrease of 0.91% and a weekly increase of 2.83%, and broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4150 (unchanged daily and a weekly increase of 1.22%) [1] - **Foreign Market Quotes**: The foreign market quotes of Chilean Silver Star decreased by 2.70% month - on - month to 720 dollars, Chilean Star decreased by 10.71% month - on - month to 500 dollars, and Chilean Venus remained unchanged at 620 dollars [1] - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chilean Silver Star decreased by 2.68% month - on - month to 5884 dollars, Chilean Star decreased by 10.60% month - on - month to 4101 dollars, and Chilean Venus remained unchanged at 5073 dollars [1] 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In June 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 67.8 tons (a 6.09% decrease from May), and the import volume of broad - leaf pulp was 143.5 tons (a 10.98% increase from May). The shipment volume of W20 to China in May increased by 3.3% month - on - month. The domestic production of broad - leaf pulp and chemical mechanical pulp fluctuated slightly in July [1] - **Inventory**: As of July 24, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 214.3 tons, a decrease of 3.8 tons from the previous period, with a 1.7% decrease. The inventory showed a slight de - stocking trend [2] - **Demand**: The production of major finished papers decreased slightly this week, and the prices of finished papers remained low, with weak overall support for pulp [1] 3.3 Valuation Data - **Basis**: On July 28, 2025, the Russian coniferous pulp basis was 90 with a quantile level of 0.839, and the Silver Star basis was 560 with a quantile level of 0.869 [1] - **Import Profit**: On July 28, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 36 with a quantile level of 0.685, and the import profit of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 49 with a quantile level of 0.69 [1] 3.4 Strategy - Pulp futures are currently greatly affected by the macro - environment. With expected intense commodity sentiment this week, it is recommended to observe cautiously [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The pulp futures are currently greatly affected by the macro - environment, and the commodity sentiment is expected to be volatile this week. It is recommended to observe cautiously [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On July 25, 2025, SP2601 was 5572, up 0.47% day - on - day and 2.39% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5450, up 0.22% day - on - day and down 0.59% week - on - week; SP2509 was 5520, up 1.17% day - on - day and 4.31% week - on - week [1] - **Spot Prices**: On July 25, 2025, the spot price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5920, unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week; Russian Needle was 5500, up 1.48% day - on - day and 3.77% week - on - week; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4150, unchanged day - on - day and up 1.22% week - on - week [1] - **Outer - disk Quotes and Import Costs**: The outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star was 720 dollars, down 2.70% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 500 dollars, down 10.71% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 620 dollars, unchanged month - on - month. The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5884, down 2.68% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 4101, down 10.60% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 5073, unchanged month - on - month [1] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In June 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 67.8 tons, down 6.09% month - on - month; the import volume of broadleaf pulp was 143.5 tons, up 10.98% month - on - month [1] - **Domestic Output**: The domestic output of broadleaf pulp on July 24, 2025, was 21 tons; the domestic output of chemimechanical pulp was 21.5 tons [1] - **Inventory**: As of July 24, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 214.3 tons, a decrease of 3.8 tons from the previous period, a 1.7% decline [1] - **Finished Paper Output**: This week, the output of major finished papers decreased slightly, with double - offset paper at 19.60 tons, copper - plate paper at 7.90 tons, tissue paper at 27.90 tons, and white cardboard at 31.10 tons [1] Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On July 25, 2025, the basis of Russian Needle was - 20, with a quantile level of 0.646; the basis of Silver Star was 400, with a quantile level of 0.793 [1] - **Import Profit**: On July 25, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 36, with a quantile level of 0.685; that of broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 49, with a quantile level of 0.69 [1] Supply - demand - inventory Analysis - **Supply**: The Arauco company in Chile announced the new outer - disk quotes for July wood pulp. The supply side showed an increase in volume and a decrease in price, with the W20's shipment volume to China in May up 3.3% month - on - month [1] - **Demand**: This week, the output of major finished papers decreased slightly, and the prices of finished papers remained low, providing weak support for pulp [1] - **Inventory**: As of July 24, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports showed a slight de - stocking trend [1] Strategy - It is recommended to observe pulp futures cautiously due to their high sensitivity to the macro - environment and the expected volatile commodity sentiment this week [2]