研究所 维持震荡，进口成本端仍存支撑 ——国信期货纸浆周报 2026年1月9日 1 本周行情回顾 2 基本面分析 研究所 第 P 一 a 部 r 分 t1 行情回顾 一、本周行情回顾 研究所 纸浆期货主力合约SP2605先涨后跌，整体维持震荡行情，周度涨幅为0.33%。 3 后市展望 目 录 CONTENTS 研究所 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 数据来源：文华财经 国信期货 4 研究所 第 P 二 a 部 r 分 t2 基本面分析 二、基本面分析：纸浆市场价格 研究所 卓创资讯监测数据显示，截至1月8日，本周进口针叶浆周均价5581元/吨，较上周上涨0.09%，涨幅较上期扩大0.04个百分点；进口阔叶浆周均价4655元/ 吨，较上周上涨0.74%，涨幅较上期扩大0.59个百分点。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 数据来源：Choice 卓创资讯 国信期货 6 二、基本面分析：11月纸浆进口量环比增加 研究所 据中华人民共和国海关总署数据显示，2025年11月，我国进口纸浆324.60万吨，进口金额为1873.4百万美元，平均单价为577.14美元/吨。1 ...

纸浆价格数据 | 2026年1月8日 | | | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | 2026年1月8日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SP2601 | 期货价格 | 5444 | -1.38% | -0. 95% | 现货价格 | 针叶浆银星 | 5600 | 0. 90% | 0. 00% | | SP2609 | (元/吨) | 5564 | -1.42% | -0.71% | (元/吨) | 针叶浆俄针 | 5300 | -1.85% | -1. 85% | | SP2605 | | 5504 | -1.64% | -1.15% | | 阔叶浆金鱼 | 4750 | 1.06% | 1.06% | | 上期价格 | | 本期价格 | | 月环比 | | | 本期价格 | 上期价格 | 月环比 | | 智利银星 | 外盘报价 | 710 | 700 | 1. 43% | 进口成本 | 智利银星 | 5802 | 5721 | 1.42% | | 巴西金鱼 | (美元/吨) | 560 ...

纸浆早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/01/09 SP主力合约收盘价： 5504.00 | 日期 | 2026/01/08 | 2026/01/07 | 2026/01/06 | 2026/01/05 | 2025/12/31 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价 | 5504.00 | 5596.00 | 5612.00 | 5530.00 | 5532.00 | | 折美元价 | 688.88 | 699.49 | 702.51 | 692.18 | 691.61 | | 距上一日涨跌 | -1.64403% | -0.28510% | 1.48282% | -0.03615% | -0.64655% | | 山东银星基差 | 61 | -6 | -22 | 35 | 58 | | 江浙沪银星基差 | 71 | -6 | -22 | 30 | 28 | 以13%增值税计算 | 产地 | 品牌 | 价格说明 | 港口美元价格 | 山东地区人民币价格 | 进口利润 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ...

行业 纸浆日报 日期 2025 年 1 月 6 日 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 021-60635727 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员:李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅多晶硅） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 请阅读正文后的声明 - ...

| | | | | | | 第一部分 前言概要 2 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二部分 基本面情况 3 | | | | 一、2025 | 年纸浆期货与现货价格走势回顾 3 | | | 二、纸浆供应：进口高位、国产提升、库存整体高位 6 | | | | 三、纸浆需求：文化纸维持清淡，包装和生活用纸有所改善 | | 11 | | 四、文化纸行情回顾 | | 13 | | 五、文化纸供应分析： | | 14 | | 六、文化纸需求分析： | | 17 | | 第三部分 后市展望及策略推荐 | | 18 | | 一、纸浆基本面综合分析： | | 18 | | 二、纸浆期货策略分析： | | 18 | | 三、双胶纸基本面综合分析： | | 18 | | 四、双胶纸策略分析： | | 19 | | 免责声明 | | 20 | 双胶纸方面：26 年联盛福建 120 万吨巨线计划 Q4 投产，但预计产量 继续下滑，利用率降至50%以下，市场内卷加剧。表观消费或再降，出口缺 乏价格优势。成本端高价浆推高成本，老线将被迫退出，产能利用率下探至 45-48% 造纸板块研发报告 造纸板块 2026 年 ...

日期 2025 年 12 月 31 日 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 行业 纸浆日报 021-60635727 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员:李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅多晶硅） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Views of the Report - This week's pulp futures prices reached a new high since April, with the main contract rising to 5710 yuan/ton on the 23rd, showing a wide - range volatile trend as expected. The main influencing factors include foreign market price support, the macro - sentiment impact of the RMB breaking 7, and capital fluctuations. [2] - It is expected that the pulp futures prices will continue to fluctuate in a wide range next week, with a possibility of a high - level decline. [3] - In the short - term, the futures prices are affected by the capital side, and the fundamentals are slightly stronger than before, with some support at the bottom. In the long - term, the impact of near - term warehouse receipts has been mostly priced in, while the supply of long - term warehouse receipts is uncertain, which brings some positive factors. The macro - sentiment may weaken due to the possible halt of the Fed's interest - rate cut process, but there may be positive policy factors in the domestic market. [4][5] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The core factors this week are foreign market price support, the macro - sentiment impact of the RMB breaking 7, and capital fluctuations. The futures prices reached a new high, with the main contract rising to 5710 yuan/ton. Suzano's price increase in the Asian market in January and the RMB breaking 7 provided cost support and positive sentiment, respectively. Capital fluctuations led to wide - range volatility. [2] - From the fundamental perspective, China's pulp port inventory decreased by 8.7 tons this week, which is a significant de - stocking and is one of the reasons for the high - level volatility of futures prices. [2] - In terms of terminal demand, the operating rates of downstream paper types showed mixed changes, and the demand was relatively weaker than last week. The import price of softwood pulp increased by 0.02%, with a further narrowing of the increase, which still has a supporting effect but is difficult to drive the futures prices up further. [2] 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Not detailed in the document 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - For inventory management of enterprises with high inventories of pulp and offset printing paper, it is recommended to short pulp/offset printing paper futures to lock in profits and sell call options to collect premiums and reduce costs. The recommended hedging ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry intervals are 5500 - 5600 for pulp and 4350 - 4400 for offset printing paper. [9] - For procurement management of papermaking enterprises with low inventories, it is recommended to buy pulp/offset printing paper futures to lock in procurement costs in advance and sell put options to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs. The recommended hedging ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry intervals are 5000 - 5100 for pulp and 4000 - 4100 for offset printing paper. [9] Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Likely Positive Information**: The RMB breaking 7, Suzano's price increase of 20 dollars in the Asian market in January, and the further decline of port inventory [14] - **Likely Negative Information**: The relatively high valuation of futures prices and the shutdown plan of leading paper enterprises in the first quarter of 2026 [13] - **Spot Transaction Information**: The pulp price shows a range - bound trend, with the main contract range of [5550, 5650]. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations in the futures market, with a small amount of high - short strategies, and to wait and see for options. Temporarily wait and see for basis and arbitrage strategies. [13] Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - The SP2605 contract continued to fluctuate in a wide range this week. The RSI indicator once reached the over - bought range and then declined. Currently, the technical indicators are slightly bearish. [20] 3.2 Base and Spread Structure - Not detailed in the document Chapter 4: Supply, Demand, and Inventory 4.1 Supply - On December 26th, the inventory was 190.6 tons (- 8.7), which is a significant de - stocking and has a positive effect. The warehouse receipts have reached an absolute low compared to the same period. The price difference between softwood and hardwood pulp has gradually converged to a normal level, which is positive. [32] - In November, the domestic monthly import volume of softwood pulp was 81.99 tons, an increase from October. The global pulp shipment volume to China increased by 3.85% month - on - month in November, which will put pressure on future de - stocking. [32] 4.2 Demand - The downstream finished paper inventories of enterprises continue to accumulate, and the profit margins have declined this week, which restricts the raw material replenishment actions of downstream enterprises. [32] - The operating rates and production of various types of finished paper show different trends, and the export and consumption also have their own characteristics, which are presented in the corresponding seasonal charts. [68][73][76][82]

纸浆价格数据 | | | 2025年12月19日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | 2025年12月19日 | 日环比 | 周坏比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货价格 | SP2601 | 5430 | 0. 15% | -0. 44% | 现货价格 | 针叶浆银星 | 5600 | 0.00% | 0.00% | | (元/吨) | SP2609 | 5522 | 0. 00% | -0. 32% | (元/吨) | 针织俄针 | 5250 | 0. 00% | 0. 00% | | | SP2605 | 550୧ | 0.11% | -0.51% | | 阔叶浆金鱼 | 4500 | 0. 00% | 0. 00% | | | | 本期价格 | 上期价格 | 月环比 | | | 本期价格 | 上期价格 | 月环比 | | 外盘报价 | 智利银星 | 700 | 680 | 2. 94% | 进口成本 | 智利银星 | 5721 | 5559 | 2.91% | | (美元/吨) | 巴西金鱼 | 5 ...

纸浆价格数据 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 TG国贸期货 ,数据 国贸期货研究院 投资咨询号:Z0015194 从业资格号:F3042528 农产品研究中心 杨璐琳 | | | 2025年12月18日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | 2025年12月18日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货价格 | SP2601 | 5422 | -0. 33% | -1.56% | 现货价格 | 针叶浆银星 | 5600 | 0.00% | 0.00% | | (元/吨) | SP2609 | 5522 | -0. 18% | -1.15% | (元/吨) | 针叶浆俄针 | 5250 | 0. 00% | 0. 00% | | | SP2605 | 5500 | -0. 11% | -1.54% | | 阔叶浆金鱼 | 4500 | 0. 00% | 0. 00% | | | | 本期价格 | 上期价格 | 月环比 | | | 本期价格 | 上期价格 | 月环比 | | 外盘报 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The pulp price has a clear bottom - support, but the upside space is limited. Investors can look for opportunities to go long at low prices during traditional peak seasons [2][3][97]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 2025 Pulp Trend Review - **Periodic Price and Volatility Trends**: From the beginning of the year to February 5, the SP price oscillated upwards with a 4.64% increase due to factors like rising foreign offers and increased import costs. From February 5 to May 6, it dropped by 19.34% because of oversupply and tariff conflicts. From May 6 to October 10, it was in a sideways oscillation with a slight decline of 0.82%. From October 10 to December 5, it oscillated strongly with a 9.61% increase [6][7][8]. - **Volatility Performance**: The annual volatility of pulp futures in 2025 was lower than the previous year. There were three obvious increases in volatility, which were affected by factors such as US tariff policies, "anti - involution" policies, and concerns about insufficient delivery products [10][11]. 3.2 2026 Pulp Operation Logic - **Supply Side**: - **Overseas Supply**: In 2026, overseas pulp production capacity is expected to increase. The supply of coniferous pulp is expected to remain stable, while the key variable for broad - leaf pulp lies in the OKI project. The appreciation of the euro in 2025 had a negative impact on the demand for pulp in Europe. The proportion of pulp shipped to China may decrease in 2026, but the overall overseas supply pressure will not ease [14][19][20]. - **Domestic Supply**: In 2026, domestic pulp production capacity is expected to increase by about 345 tons, with the supply pressure concentrated in the fourth quarter. The price of domestic wood chips is stabilizing, and the import of recycled pulp is tightening, which is conducive to raising the price of domestic pulp and providing a bottom reference for the market [29][31][32]. - **Demand Side**: - **Demand Structure Changes**: The growth in demand for white cardboard and tissue paper is expected to offset the decline in demand for cultural paper, driving a slight increase in the demand for pulp. However, over - capacity and oversupply make it difficult to raise downstream paper prices, limiting the upward space for pulp prices [48][49][67]. - **Cost Structure Adjustment**: Due to the long - term high price difference between coniferous and broad - leaf pulp, paper mills have been optimizing their pulp formulas. As the price difference narrows, some paper mills may increase the use of coniferous pulp [91]. 3.3 Conclusion and Investment Outlook - **Pulp Price Judgment in 2026**: The bottom of the pulp price is basically confirmed, but the upside is limited. The traditional peak seasons of "Golden Three, Silver Four" and "Golden Nine, Silver Ten" can be focused on, but the upward space during these periods may be restricted by factors such as inventory and supply [97][99]. - **Investment Outlook**: The pulp price has a clear bottom - support, and investors can look for opportunities to go long at low prices during traditional peak seasons [3][102].