021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 行业 纸浆日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 25 日 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 021-60635727 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员:李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅多晶硅） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回 ...

上期所计划 2025 年中暂停布针品牌针叶浆入库，现有约 22 万吨布针 仓单将在 2025 年底注销 15 万吨，预计 2026 年交割量大幅减少，盘面 价格将锚定更高价品牌，利好高品质纸浆。 近期纸浆期货价格回落，主因实际需求未明显改善，针叶浆港口库存增 加，贸易商套期保值操作加剧现货市场流动性紧张，短期内纸浆市场预 计维持偏弱格局，需关注现货市场成交情况。 文化纸（双胶纸）市场受纸浆期货回调、招标价格低于预期及部分品牌 市价松动影响下跌，但头部企业发布涨价函，盘面或超跌修复，2026 年文化用纸市场预计处于周期低位，静待反弹。 2026 年纸浆行业供应端压力或减小，新增产能约 200 万吨，但终端消 费疲软，需关注投机需求和真实消费传导，港口库存压力较大，上半年 投机需求或不强劲，对国内纸浆期货偏利空。 纸张消费增量主要驱动力为白卡纸和生活用纸，文化用纸增量不明显， 市场大格局或维持区间震荡，新增产能减弱，港口库存较高，文化用纸 对纸浆消费提振有限。 Q&A 纸浆及造纸行业展望 20251124 摘要 近期纸浆期货市场的主要变化和原因是什么？ 最近文化纸（双胶纸）市场从 4,300 元/吨跌至 4,10 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of pulp futures prices is expected to be volatile or weakly volatile, with the price center slightly shifting downwards. Attention should be paid to the impacts brought by changes in supply and demand [2][3]. - In the short - term trading logic, the overall idea should be to short at high levels, but beware of the possibility of price rebounds at low levels. In the long - term trading, although the impact of needle pulp warehouse receipts has been mostly priced in, there are uncertainties in the supply of long - term warehouse receipts, which brings certain benefits. The Fed's continuous interest - rate cut process may stop, and the macro sentiment is relatively weak, while there may be favorable policy factors [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations - **Core Contradictions** - The core influencing factors this week are the poor downstream bidding situation and the accumulation of port inventories. The poor bidding situation has affected the confidence of paper enterprises and prices. The increase in Chinese port inventories by 63,000 tons has also put pressure on futures prices. In addition, some pulp mills are expected to increase production in the future, which will increase the supply pressure. The downstream paper - making operating rate has declined, and demand has weakened. The previous increase in pulp futures prices was also affected by capital, and the current decline is a return to a relatively normal price [2][3]. - **Trading - type Strategy Recommendations** - Futures trading can consider temporary waiting and watching, or short - term shorting at high levels. Options strategies can also wait and watch temporarily. The 12 - 01 backwardation spread arbitrage can continue to be held [15]. - **Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations** - For enterprises with high inventories of finished products (needle pulp/offset printing paper) who are worried about price drops, they can short pulp/offset printing paper futures to lock in profits and cover production costs, or sell call options to collect premiums. For papermaking enterprises with low inventories that want to purchase according to orders, they can buy pulp/offset printing paper futures to lock in procurement costs in advance, or sell put options to collect premiums [9]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information** - Some pulp mills are under maintenance, and European port pulp inventories decreased in September [11]. - **Negative Information** - Port inventories have accumulated, the Thurderbay pulp mill and the US Woodland pulp mill will switch to producing needle pulp, and the bidding situation of paper enterprises is poor [16]. - **Spot Transaction Information** - The report provides detailed price information on various types of pulp, including futures prices, domestic spot prices, and domestic finished - paper average prices, as well as their price changes [17]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation - **Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation** - The SP2601 contract fluctuated widely this week. Both long and short positions showed signs of slight reduction. The RSI indicator rose and is still in the buying range but is approaching the neutral range, with a high possibility of continued short - term fluctuations [19]. - **Basis and Spread Structure** - The 12 - 06 contract maintains a C - structure, and the 07 - 11 contract is in a B - structure. The suppression of needle pulp warehouse receipts continues, and the current inventory reduction is slow. Attention can be paid to the 12 - 01 spread backwardation arbitrage [22]. 3.4 Supply, Demand, and Inventory - **Inventory** - On November 21st, the inventory was 2.173 million tons (+63,000 tons), showing a significant increase compared to last week. The domestic monthly import volume of needle pulp in late September was 760,000 tons, showing a rebound from August. The global pulp shipment volume to China at the end of August increased by 5.7% month - on - month, which will put pressure on subsequent pulp inventory reduction. The inventories of downstream finished papers in enterprises are continuously accumulating, and the profit margins have declined this week, restricting the raw - material replenishment actions of downstream enterprises [26]. - **Supply** - It includes domestic production volume and import volume. The report provides historical data and seasonal charts of domestic pulp production and import volume [51][53]. - **Demand** - It includes the capacity utilization rate, production volume, export volume, and consumption volume of finished papers. The report provides historical data and seasonal charts of these aspects [60][64][68][73].

021-60635727 行业 纸浆日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 19 日 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员:李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅多晶硅） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the pulp futures market has shown a recovery since November, with prices rising over 9% from a low of 5042 yuan/ton to above 5550 yuan/ton, driven by seasonal demand and cautious purchasing behavior from paper mills [1] - UPM and Metsa reported losses in their paper businesses for the first half of the year, while Sodra's pulp business faced an operating loss of 220 million Swedish Krona in Q2, reflecting a general downturn in the pulp and paper industry [1] - The supply-demand balance for pulp is currently weak, with cautious purchasing from paper mills leading to low inventory levels, which may trigger a replenishment cycle if demand improves [1] Group 2 - The downstream paper market shows mixed signals, with white card paper prices stabilizing and recovering to May levels after a decline during the third quarter, supported by price increases from leading paper companies [2] - The demand for consumer paper remains stable, with a notable increase in exports of consumer paper by 20% to 30%, which is expected to maintain overall demand confidence in the last two months of the year [2] - The cultural paper segment, particularly double glue paper, faces challenges from digital alternatives, declining birth rates, and reduced demand for traditional print media, leading to a subdued market outlook [2][3] Group 3 - The current downturn in double glue paper is attributed to issues on the supply, inventory, and profit fronts, with a total inventory of 1.8813 million tons, marking a 7.66% year-on-year increase [3] - Despite plans from several paper companies to raise double glue paper prices by 200 yuan/ton, the price increase is driven by profit pressure rather than actual demand improvement, making it difficult for downstream acceptance [3] - Overall, while the pulp demand outlook remains optimistic with the start of the double glue paper bidding season, supply pressures persist, and overseas production cuts have not significantly impacted the market [3]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: November 18, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Pulp Futures: The previous settlement price of the 01 contract was 5474 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5474 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 0.00%. [7] - Shandong Wood Pulp Market: The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp was 4900 - 6500 yuan/ton, remaining stable from the previous trading day. The price of Shandong Yinxing was 5550 yuan/ton. [7] - International News: Finnforest Metsa notified Chinese customers that the November quotation of softwood pulp increased by $20. In September, the chemical pulp shipments of the world's 20 pulp - producing countries increased by 8.3% year - on - year, with softwood pulp up 3.8% and hardwood pulp up 11.8%. Shipments to the Chinese market continued to grow. [7] - European Market: In October, the European wood pulp inventory was 703,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.8% and a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The consumption was 844,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.8% and a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. [7] - Inventory: As of November 14, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports was 1.9766 million tons, an increase of 4.22% from the previous week. [7] - Downstream Market: The performance of downstream base paper remained differentiated. The packaging paper market continued to be favorable, while the prices of other base papers were stable. The improvement of social orders for offset paper was limited, and publishing tenders continued. [7] Group 3: Industry News - Hong Kong Stock Market: On November 17, Hong Kong paper stocks rose. Chenming Paper led with a gain of over 6%, Nine Dragons Paper rose over 5%, and Lee & Man Paper rose nearly 3%. [8] - Price Increase: Since November, the price increase wave in the domestic paper industry has intensified. Shanying Paper raised the prices of products such as red fir paper and corrugated paper by 30 - 100 yuan/ton, and the core product categories in Guangdong and Zhejiang bases increased by 50 yuan/ton. Nine Dragons Paper and other enterprises followed suit. [8] - Market Outlook: Driven by the packaging demand during the "Double Eleven" period, the price increase of packaging paper was supported, but industry insiders pointed out that the price increase might not be sustainable due to the oversupply of bulk paper materials. [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The fundamentals of pulp futures have not improved. It is recommended to view it as range - bound and sell on rallies [7]. - The fundamentals of double - offset paper futures have not improved. It is recommended to view it as range - bound and sell on rallies [18]. 3. Summary by Variety Pulp - **Demand**: Demand is flat, with only rigid demand replenishment. Terminal orders in the downstream base paper market are limited, and paper mills' raw material procurement is cautious. Only sporadic publishing tenders in the cultural paper field have slightly boosted market confidence, but demand has not improved substantially. The overall operating rate of downstream finished paper has declined [5]. - **Supply**: Supply is relatively abundant. Although the domestic pulp import volume decreased in October, port inventories are still ample. Overseas prices have fluctuated, but there is no shortage of supply [5]. - **Inventory**: As of November 13, 2025, the inventory of mainstream ports in China was 211.0 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.2 million tons or 5.1%. The inventory shifted from narrow - range destocking to high - level accumulation [5]. - **Profit**: Paper mill profits continue to decline. Although the pulp futures market rebounded, weak downstream demand has led to a lack of support for price increases in the finished paper market, and the industry profit is contracting [6]. Double - offset Paper - **Demand**: Demand remains weak. This week, the domestic sales volume of double - offset paper was 169.6 thousand tons. Only sporadic orders were released in the publishing field, and social printing demand was sluggish. The market transaction was light, and only some downstream enterprises replenished inventory moderately [17]. - **Supply**: Supply increased slightly. This week, the operating rate of double - offset paper was 51.40%, a week - on - week increase of 0.16 percentage points, but the growth rate narrowed. The industry output reached 175.6 thousand tons, and imports remained at a low level [17]. - **Inventory**: Inventory decreased from an increase but the pressure still exists. This week, the inventory days of double - offset paper decreased by 0.66% compared with last week. Although paper mill inventories decreased slightly, the overall inventory pressure has not been substantially alleviated [17]. - **Profit**: The industry is still in a loss state. Although some paper mills' planned price increases may offset cost pressure slightly, the industry has been in a loss situation since October, and rising costs and weak demand have failed to reverse the loss pattern [17]. Waste Paper - **Demand**: Demand is strong and rising. The e - commerce festival and year - end promotions have led to concentrated procurement by downstream cardboard and carton factories. The seasonal recovery of cultural paper has also increased the demand for waste paper, driving up the procurement volume of waste cartons. The operating rate of paper mills exceeded 85%, and leading paper mills have raised purchase prices [26]. - **Supply**: Supply is continuously tight. The recycling volume of waste cartons has decreased in many domestic areas, and import restrictions and price increases of imported recycled pulp have increased the demand for domestic waste cartons. Some paper mills' maintenance has further exacerbated the supply gap [26]. - **Inventory**: Overall, there is a narrow - range destocking trend. As of November 6, the inventory of mainstream ports in China was 200.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.3 million tons or 2.6%. Downstream cardboard factories' raw material inventories are mostly at medium - to - high levels, while paper mills' raw material inventories are generally low [26]. - **Profit**: Industry profits are clearly divided. The cost pressure of corrugated paper and boxboard paper has increased, and gross profit has shrunk. However, the demand for yarn tube paper is good, and the gross profit of some high - end paper types has remained at a good level [27]. Boxboard Paper (Packaging Paper) - **Demand**: Demand shows resilience. The e - commerce replenishment demand after the "Double 11" promotion and the subsequent Chinese New Year goods stocking demand support the demand for boxboard paper. Downstream cardboard factories have a certain demand for boxboard paper, driving some paper mills to raise prices [36]. - **Supply**: Supply is structurally tightened. Leading paper mills such as Nine Dragons and Shanying have raised prices, but due to the shortage of raw material waste paper, some medium - and large - sized paper mills in East and South China have announced machine shutdowns for maintenance in mid - November, resulting in a decrease in overall market supply [36]. - **Inventory**: The inventory turnover is 10.5 days, which is relatively controllable. However, the high - level raw material inventories of downstream cardboard factories have restricted their replenishment, and the low raw material inventories of paper mills have affected the production and stocking rhythm of boxboard paper [36]. - **Profit**: The immediate profit is 270 yuan, and profitability has some support. The price increase of boxboard paper and the rising cost of raw material waste yellow board paper have affected the profit margin, which is in a moderate recovery state [36].

南华纸浆产业周报 —— 相对偏强运行，但需注意高位回落风险 俞俊臣（投资咨询证号：Z0021065 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年11月7日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 本周的核心影响因素在于宏观情绪与纸企挺价落地情况。纸浆对美进口关税延续，本周进口木浆现货均价也 多数上涨，利好纸浆期价走势。而纸企挺价结果也部分落地，带来一定利好，但实际落地效果相对有限，限 制期价涨幅。 从基本面来看，中国港口库存下降5.3万吨，降幅相对明显，需注意其跌至200万吨以下后给期价带来的利多 影响。而就供应端来看，个别企业恢复生产，竹浆、阔叶浆、化机浆开工负荷率均较上周有所增长，在供应 端仍带来一定的压力。 在终端需求方面，略有好转。下游造纸开工率普遍上涨，下游需求有所恢复。 综合来看，下周纸浆期价走势将震荡偏强，但上方仍存一定限制。 *近端交易逻辑 短期受需求与进口浆价影响，仍存一定上涨空间。但下游需求并未真正改善，需注意追高风险。 * 远端交易预期 远端上，布针仓单的影响将有一定程度的下降，但26年仍然有今年注册的布针仓单可以交割。美联储持续降 息预期加强，宏观上利多整个大 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: November 7, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The short - term market focuses on the potential boost to the market price due to the possibly low number of old warehouse receipts after cancellation, but the rebound space is limited under the weak fundamental situation. It is recommended to try shorting at high prices [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Pulp futures contract 01: The previous settlement price was 5320 yuan/ton, the closing price was 5368 yuan/ton, a 0.90% increase [7] - Shandong wood pulp market: The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp was 4870 - 6500 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of Shandong Yinxing was 5500 yuan/ton [7] - Arauco's October wood pulp offer: Softwood pulp Yinxing was 680 dollars/ton, a 20 - dollar decrease from last month; natural pulp Venus was 590 dollars/ton, unchanged from last month; hardwood pulp Mingxing was 540 dollars/ton, unchanged from last month [8] - European wood pulp in September: The inventory was 722.3 thousand tons, a 3% month - on - month increase and a 16.1% year - on - year increase; the consumption was 813.2 thousand tons, a 16.3% month - on - month increase and a 1.6% year - on - year decrease [8] - As of November 6, 2025: The weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports decreased 2.31% month - on - month, with inventory at Qingdao Port and Tianjin Port decreasing [8] - Downstream paper products: The performance of downstream base paper remained differentiated, the demand side of the pulp market increased slowly, and the traditional peak season started late. Double - offset paper downstream printers mainly stocked up for rigid demand, and the publication bidding had not yet increased significantly, with overall market demand being weak. The cumulative year - on - year decline in the total profit of the papermaking and paper products industry continued to narrow [8] 2. Industry News - On November 3, the re - approved papermaking production line technical renovation project of Guangdong Jiefeng Industrial Investment Co., Ltd. was approved. After re - approval, the project will produce 225 thousand tons of corrugated paper and 15 thousand tons of toilet paper annually [9] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts including import softwood pulp spot price in Shandong, pulp futures price, pulp spot - futures price difference, needle - broadleaf price difference, inter - delivery spread, warehouse receipt volume, domestic main port pulp inventory, European main port wood pulp inventory, prices and price differences of coated paper, double - offset paper, white cardboard, and whiteboard paper, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate [15][17][19][24][25][27]

1. Report Information - Report Title: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Report Date: November 5, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] 2. Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Pulp futures contract 01: The previous settlement price was 5,274 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5,288 yuan/ton, a 0.27% increase [7]. - Shandong wood pulp market: The intended transaction price range for softwood pulp was 4,870 - 6,500 yuan/ton, remaining stable from the previous trading day. The price of Shandong Yinxing was 5,500 yuan/ton [7]. - Arauco's October pulp offers: Softwood pulp Yinxing was $680/ton, down $20 from the previous month; unbleached kraft pulp Jinxing was $590/ton, unchanged; hardwood pulp Mingxing was $540/ton, unchanged [8]. - European pulp inventory and consumption in September: Inventory was 722,300 tons, up 3% month - on - month and 16.1% year - on - year; consumption was 813,200 tons, up 16.3% month - on - month and down 1.6% year - on - year [8]. - As of October 30, 2025: The weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports decreased 0.85% month - on - month, and the overall shipping speed was stable [8]. Operation Suggestions - The downstream base paper performance remains differentiated, with slow growth in pulp market demand and a late start to the traditional peak season. The market demand for offset paper is generally weak. The cumulative year - on - year decline in the total profit of the papermaking and paper products industry continued to narrow. In the short term, the market focuses on the potential boost to the futures price from the low number of old warehouse receipts after cancellation, but the rebound space is limited under the weak fundamental situation. It is recommended to try shorting on rallies [8]. 3. Industry News - National Bureau of Statistics data for January - September 2025: The total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 5.3732 trillion yuan, a 3.2% year - on - year increase. For the papermaking and paper products industry, the operating income was 1.03757 trillion yuan, down 2.1% year - on - year; the operating cost was 916.95 billion yuan, down 2.1% year - on - year; the total profit was 27.12 billion yuan, down 15.6% year - on - year [9]. - Company performance: Sun Paper's operating income was 28.936 billion yuan, down 6.58% year - on - year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.5 billion yuan, up 1.66% year - on - year; Wuzhou Special Paper's operating income was 6.457 billion yuan, up 18.13% year - on - year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 181 million yuan, down 44.66% year - on - year; Xianhe Co., Ltd.'s operating income was 9.063 billion yuan, up 24.8% year - on - year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 778 million yuan, down 4.77% year - on - year; Hengfeng Paper's operating income was 2.039 billion yuan, up 6.29% year - on - year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 148 million yuan, up 34.76% year - on - year [9]