商 品 研 究 2026 年 02 月 27 日 纸浆：震荡运行 20260227 | | | 表 1：基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 纸浆主力 | 日盘收盘价(元/吨) | 5. 312 | 5, 348 | -36 | | | | 夜盘收盘价(元/吨) | 5.272 | 5. 320 | -48 | | | | 成交量(手) | 178. 329 | 175, 844 | +2. 485 | | | (05合约) | 持仓量(手) | 243.577 | 239.802 | +3.775 | | | | 仓单数量(吨) | 152, 537 | 155. 621 | -3.084 | | | | 前20名会员净持仓(手) | -29.329 | -24.732 | -4.597 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 银星-期货主力 | 38 | 2 | +36 | | | | 金鱼-期货主力(非标) | -712 | -748 | +36 | | | 月差 | S ...

行业 纸浆日报 日期 2026 年 2 月 27 日 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员:李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | --- | 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 纸浆期货 05 合约前结算价为 5364 元/吨，收盘价为 5 ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 02 月 24 日 纸浆：震荡运行 20260224 | | | 表 1：基本面数据 | | 项目 | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 纸浆主力 | 日盘收盘价(元/吨) | 5.260 | 5, 238 | +22 | | | | 夜盘收盘价(元/吨) | - | 5, 254 | | | | | 成交量(手) | 164. 325 | 152. 334 | +11.991 | | | (05合约) | 持仓量 (手) | 269.664 | 280.912 | -11.248 | | | | 仓单数量(吨) | 154. 612 | 151, 415 | +3. 197 | | | | 前20名会员净持仓(手) | -18.079 | -17.850 | -229 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 银星-期货主力 | -10 | 12 | -22 | | | | 金鱼-期货主力(非标) | -680 | -658 | -22 | | | 月差 | SP03-SP ...

行业 纸浆日报 日期 2026 年 2 月 13 日 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员:李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | --- | | | | --- | | | | P2605 21 28091 18/9 075 9% JEU | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Pulp futures lack a clear trading logic before the holiday, and the spot market transactions are stagnant, so it is expected to fluctuate at a low level [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents 3.1 Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices (Yuan/ton) on February 11, 2026**: SP2601 was 5428 with a daily increase of 0.22% and a weekly decrease of 1.67%; SP2609 was 5280 with a daily increase of 0.57% and a weekly decrease of 1.75%; SP2605 was 5236 with a daily increase of 0.65% and a weekly decrease of 1.65% [5]. - **Spot Prices (Yuan/ton) on February 11, 2026**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5250 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 1.32%; Coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5050 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 0.98%; Hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4580 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 0.43% [5]. - **Outer - plate Quotes (US dollars/ton)**: Chilean Silver Star was 710, up 1.43% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 590, up 3.51% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 620, with no month - on - month change [5]. - **Import Costs (Yuan/ton)**: Chilean Silver Star was 5802, up 1.42% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 4830, up 3.47% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 5073, with no month - on - month change [5]. 3.2 Pulp Fundamental Data - **Import Volume (10,000 tons)**: In December 2025, coniferous pulp was 77.8, up 7.31% month - on - month compared to November; hardwood pulp was 135.2, down 23.40% month - on - month compared to November [5]. - **Pulp Shipment Volume to China (1000 tons) in November 2025**: It was 178, up 3.00% month - on - month [5]. - **Domestic Production Volume (10,000 tons)**: Hardwood pulp production volume from January 8 - February 5, 2026, fluctuated around 24 - 25.2; Chemimechanical pulp production volume fluctuated around 23.7 - 23.9 [5]. - **Pulp Port Inventory (10,000 tons)**: As of February 5, 2026, it was 218.2, up 1.3 from the previous period and 0.6% higher month - on - month. The inventory has been increasing for five consecutive weeks [5]. - **Futures Delivery Warehouse Inventory (10,000 tons)**: As of February 5, 2026, it was 14.2 [5]. - **Finished Paper Production Volume (10,000 tons)**: From January 8 - February 5, 2026, double - offset paper production volume fluctuated around 18.7 - 21.1; coated paper production volume fluctuated around 8.3 - 8.5; tissue paper production volume fluctuated around 28.66 - 29.87; kraft linerboard production volume fluctuated around 33.1 - 38.4 [5]. 3.3 Supply, Demand, and Inventory Analysis - **Supply Side**: In February, Chile's Arauco Company's coniferous pulp offer was 710 US dollars/ton, unchanged; hardwood pulp Star's offer was 600 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton; natural pulp Venus's offer was 620 US dollars/ton, unchanged [5]. - **Demand Side**: The pulp demand has been stable recently, the finished paper price is stable, and the production volume has increased slightly this week [5]. - **Inventory Side**: As of February 5, 2026, the inventory of Chinese mainstream pulp ports continued to increase, and the port sample inventory has been in an increasing trend for five consecutive weeks [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report views pulp futures as oscillating with a downward bias, lacking positive narratives [1] Core Viewpoints - The main trading logic of pulp futures is the regression to the value of warehouse receipts in the absence of new positive factors. The "strong hardwood, weak softwood" pattern persists. The supply - tight situation of hardwood pulp has eased slightly, but there are still tight expectations. The demand side lacks positive drivers. After the "strong supply - side expectation" is falsified, the futures mainly return to the "weak reality", and the current futures price may gradually regress to the actual delivery value of futures warehouse receipts [3] Summary by Directory Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply and Inventory**: The supply - tight situation of hardwood pulp has eased, and port inventories have risen for five consecutive weeks, but the "strong hardwood, weak softwood" pattern remains. In January 2026, the shipment of hardwood pulp from three South American countries to China was 1.075 million tons, a 12% month - on - month and 20% year - on - year decrease. In February 2026, Arauco's softwood pulp offer was $710/ton (unchanged), and the hardwood pulp Star offer was $600/ton, up $10/ton [3] - **Demand**: The prices of the four major wood - pulp papers did not change significantly this week. Most factories' pre - holiday stocking is coming to an end. In January 2026, the output of the four major wood - pulp papers in China was 4.1 million tons, a 1.6% month - on - month decrease and 28.3% year - on - year increase, mainly due to Chenming Paper's resumption of production. Seasonally, paper mills are likely to issue price - increase letters after the festival, but the implementation may be poor, and the demand side lacks positive drivers [3] - **Summary and Strategy**: After the "strong supply - side expectation" is falsified by the flat offer of the new round of softwood pulp, the futures mainly return to the "weak reality", and the current futures price may gradually regress to the actual delivery value of futures warehouse receipts [3] Part Two: Review of Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: Pulp futures continued to be weak this week. Hardwood pulp prices were stable at 4,550 yuan/ton, and the softwood pulp basis weakened slightly. With port inventories rising for five consecutive weeks, pulp futures lack positive drivers and the macro sentiment has weakened, so they are expected to remain weak next week [9] - **Spot Market**: The price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 5,230 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 70 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 230 yuan/ton. The price of softwood pulp Ussuri was 5,020 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 80 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 230 yuan/ton. The price of hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4,550 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week and a month - on - month decrease of 180 yuan/ton [16] - **Foreign Offers**: In February, the foreign offer of softwood pulp was flat, while the price of hardwood pulp increased. Arauco's softwood pulp offer in February was $710/ton (unchanged); the hardwood pulp Star offer was $600/ton, up $10/ton; and the natural pulp Venus offer was $620/ton (unchanged) [19] - **Open Interest**: As of February 9, 2025, the total open interest of pulp futures contracts was 385,128 lots, a 3% increase from last week; the open interest of the main pulp futures contract was 287,362 lots, a 4% increase from last week [21] Part Three: Pulp Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Imports**: In December, the import volume of hardwood chips increased significantly. In January 2026, the total pulp import volume was 3.246 million tons, a 23.99% increase. The softwood pulp import volume was 725,000 tons, a 4.92% increase, and the hardwood pulp import volume was 1.765 million tons, a 33.88% increase [5] - **Inventory**: Pulp port inventories have risen for five consecutive weeks. Overseas pulp mill inventory days were basically stable in November 2025. The inventory days of bleached softwood pulp were 49 days, and that of bleached hardwood pulp were 45 days [31][37] - **Downstream Demand**: As of February 6, 2026, the prices of the four major wood - pulp papers were stable, and their gross profit margins increased slightly week - on - week. In January 2026, the output of some paper products decreased slightly month - on - month, while the inventory of some paper products increased month - on - month. For example, the double - offset paper inventory was 1.915 million tons, a 0.78% month - on - month decrease and a 15.72% year - on - year increase [40][47][55] - **Overseas Market**: In December 2025, European pulp demand decreased, with softwood pulp demand at 198,600 tons (a 7.1% month - on - month and 8.3% year - on - year decrease) and hardwood pulp demand at 476,000 tons (a 11.59% month - on - month decrease and a 2.55% year - on - year increase). European pulp inventories started to accumulate again, with softwood pulp inventory at 222,800 tons (a 6.93% month - on - month and 0.71% year - on - year increase) and hardwood pulp inventory at 493,800 tons (a 9.59% month - on - month and 15.53% year - on - year increase) [77] - **Spreads**: As of February 7, 2026, the softwood pulp basis weakened slightly, with the Shandong Silver Star basis at - 4 yuan/ton, a 4 - yuan/ton decrease from last week; the Shandong Goldfish basis was - 684 yuan/ton, a 66 - yuan/ton increase from last week. The 5 - 9 spread was flat at - 44 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [83]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp futures main contract SP2605 continued to decline, with a weekly decline of 0.87%. The commodity market generally fell, and downstream demand was weak, not supporting a significant upward movement of the market [7]. - It is expected that the pre - holiday market will mainly fluctuate at a low level, waiting for guidance from the demand side [34]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Review - The pulp futures main contract SP2605 continued to decline, with a weekly decline of 0.87%. The decline was due to the general fall in the commodity market and weak downstream demand [7]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Pulp Market Price**: As of February 5th, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp was 5302 yuan/ton, a 1.05% decrease from the previous week, and the decline rate increased by 0.62 percentage points compared to the previous period. The weekly average price of imported hardwood pulp was 4553 yuan/ton, a 0.87% decrease from the previous week, and the decline rate narrowed by 0.06 percentage points [13]. - **Accumulated Pulp Imports from January to December**: In December 2025, China imported 3.113 billion tons of pulp, with an import value of 1.7994 billion US dollars and an average unit price of 578.03 US dollars/ton. The accumulated import volume and value from January to December increased by 4.9% and - 2.4% respectively compared to the previous year [17]. - **Port Inventory Situation**: As of February 5, 2026, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports was 2.1127 billion tons, a 0.34% decrease from the previous week, changing from an increase to a decrease [21]. - **European Port Wood Pulp Inventory in December**: In December 2025, the total inventory in European ports increased by 8.58% month - on - month and 4.38% compared to December 2024. The inventory in ports in the Netherlands/Belgium/France/Switzerland, the UK, and Germany increased by 14.92%, 10.07%, and 14.99% respectively month - on - month, while the inventory in ports in Italy and Spain decreased by 0.73% and 4.90% respectively [24]. - **Shanghai Futures Exchange Pulp Inventory**: No detailed data provided. - **Weekly On - Site Operating Rate of Downstream Pulp Types**: Waste paper pulp consumption accounts for 63% of the total pulp consumption in China. Wood pulp consumption accounts for 31%, and imported wood pulp consumption accounts for 21%. Non - wood pulp consumption accounts for 6%. As of February 5th, the operating load rate of double - copper paper increased by 1.74 percentage points from the previous week; the operating load rate of double - offset paper increased by 3.09 percentage points; the operating load rate of white cardboard increased by 4.96 percentage points; the operating load rate of household paper decreased by 0.75 percentage points [30]. 3. Future Outlook - The domestic pulp port inventory is still at a relatively high historical level, and it is necessary to observe the destocking situation. Paper mills have limited acceptance of high prices, and it is difficult to see a significant increase in transactions. The pre - holiday stockpiling may have limited impact on demand due to weak terminal consumption demand and some paper mills taking early holidays. The cost side provides some support, and the pre - holiday market is expected to fluctuate at a low level, waiting for demand - side guidance [34].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The pulp market is expected to move in a volatile manner. The supply - side port inventory pressure persists, and the demand - side purchasing activities slow down significantly due to the approaching Spring Festival. The market has entered the holiday mode in advance with narrowed volatility, waiting for new guidance after the festival. The short - term price of the tissue paper market is likely to remain stable [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The daily - session closing price of pulp's main contract was 5,324 yuan/ton (up 48 from the previous day), and the night - session closing price was 5,312 yuan/ton (up 30). The trading volume was 210,175 lots (up 4,218), the open interest was 279,509 lots (up 536), and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 142,447 tons. The net position of the top 20 members increased by 2,062 to - 18,283 lots [3]. - **Spread Data**: The basis of Silver Star - futures main contract decreased by 48 to - 4, and that of Goldfish - futures main contract (non - standard) decreased by 48 to - 724. The monthly spread of SP03 - SP05 increased by 2 to - 28 [3]. - **Spot Market**: The domestic prices of coniferous pulp such as Northwood, Cariboo, and Silver Star were 5,550 yuan/ton, 5,500 yuan/ton, and 5,320 yuan/ton respectively. The international price of Silver Star was 710 dollars/ton. The domestic prices of broad - leaf pulp like Golden, Star, and others were around 4,600 yuan/ton, and the international price of Star was 590 dollars/ton. The price of chemimechanical pulp (Kunhe) was 3,800 yuan/ton, and the price of natural pulp (Venus) was 4,950 yuan/ton with an international price of 620 dollars/ton [3]. - **Trend Intensity**: The pulp trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral stance [3]. 3.2 Industry News - The pulp supply - demand fundamentals did not change significantly. The port inventory pressure on the supply side continued, and the purchasing activities of downstream paper mills and traders slowed down due to the approaching Spring Festival. The market price lacked a clear direction, and most industry players adopted a wait - and - see attitude. The tissue paper market price was stable, with general trading enthusiasm. The raw material pulp market was consolidating, and the short - term tissue paper price was likely to be stable, mainly depending on raw material pulp prices and paper mill equipment operation [4][5].

Group 1: General Information - Report Title: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: February 5, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team, including researchers for pulp, crude oil asphalt, PTA, MEG, polyolefins, and glass soda ash [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Pulp futures contract 05 had a previous settlement price of 5,286 yuan/ton and a closing price of 5,324 yuan/ton, rising 0.72% overall. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 4,700 - 5,600 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day's closing price, with the Shandong Yinxing quotation at 5,370 - 5,380 yuan/ton [7]. - For other contracts: - SP2609 had an opening price of 5,334 yuan/ton, a high of 5,380 yuan/ton, a low of 5,330 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 5,370 yuan/ton, up 0.75%. - SP2701's high was 5,520 yuan/ton, and the price change was 0.1%. [7] Industry Situation - Suzano announced a $10/ton price increase for the Asian market in February 2026, and the FOB quotation continued to rise. - In November, the chemical pulp shipments of the world's top 20 pulp - producing countries decreased by 6.9% year - on - year, with softwood pulp down 7.6% and hardwood pulp down 7.3%. Shipments to the Chinese market decreased significantly. - In December 2025, the total wood pulp inventory in European ports was 1.5086 million tons, up 8.6% month - on - month and 4.4% year - on - year. - In December 2025, the total pulp imports were 3.113 million tons, down 4.1% month - on - month and 3.8% year - on - year. - As of January 29, 2026, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports was 2.1199 million tons, up 4.96% month - on - month. - On the demand side, the pulp - purchasing rhythm of downstream paper mills slowed down, some small and medium - sized mills planned to close, and the trading atmosphere in the spot market weakened. - In the short term, pulp prices are restricted by the sector's influence and weak downstream procurement, experiencing a correction and maintaining a wide - range oscillating trend. [8] Group 3: Industry News - On February 4, news reported that the EU - India trade agreement opened up the market for pulp, paper, cardboard, and recycled paper. The agreement, signed on January 27, 2026, included the gradual removal of tariff barriers for over 90% of traded goods, which was expected to significantly boost bilateral trade. Recycled paper, pulp, cardboard, and processed products (e.g., packaging and printing materials under HS codes 47 - 49) were also included in the tariff agreement. In 2024, the EU imported wood pulp, paper, and cardboard worth 249 million euros from India, while its exports to India reached 1.07 billion euros. [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report includes various data charts, such as import bleached softwood pulp spot prices in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp spot - futures price differences in Shandong Yinxing, softwood - hardwood price differences in Shandong, cross - period price differences, warehouse receipt totals, domestic main port pulp inventories, European main port wood pulp inventories, copperplate paper and offset paper prices and price differences, white cardboard and whiteboard paper prices and price differences, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate. The data sources are Wind and Zhuochuang Information, and the research and development department of CCB Futures. [7][15][23]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily paper pulp report dated February 4, 2026 [1][2] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The previous settlement price of the SP2605 contract of pulp futures was 5300 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5276 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.45%. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 4700 - 5600 yuan/ton, with the price remaining stable compared to the previous trading day's closing price. The quotation of Shandong Yinxing was 5370 - 5380 yuan/ton [7] - Suzano announced a price increase of $10/ton in the Asian market in February 2026, and the external market quotation continued to rise. In November, the chemical pulp shipments of 20 pulp - producing countries in the world decreased by 6.9% year - on - year, softwood pulp decreased by 7.6% year - on - year, and hardwood pulp decreased by 7.3% year - on - year, with a significant decline in shipments to the Chinese market. In December 2025, the total wood pulp inventory in European ports was 1.5086 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.6% and a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. The total pulp imports in December 2025 were 3.113 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. As of January 29, 2026, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports was 2.1199 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.96% [8] - On the demand side, the pulp procurement rhythm of downstream paper mills slowed down, some small and medium - sized factories showed signs of closing for the holiday, and the trading atmosphere in the spot market became lighter. In the short term, pulp prices were restricted by the sector and weak downstream procurement, and the overall trend was a wide - range shock [8] Group 3: Industry News - On February 2, a fire broke out at Qian'an Boda Paper Co., Ltd. in Tangshan, Hebei Province. This fire was expected to cause short - term supply disruptions in the northern copy paper market. After the production line of Boda Paper stopped, the supply of copy paper in the North China region would directly decrease, and the market might experience a temporary supply shortage. However, the northern copy paper market was supported by the production capacity of leading enterprises such as APP, Sun Paper, Chenming Paper, and Asia Pulp & Paper, with sufficient overall supply elasticity. Since the fire only affected a single enterprise, it was not expected to cause a significant nationwide price fluctuation [9]