行业 纸浆月报 日期 2025 年 10 月 10 日 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 021-60635727 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员:李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅多晶硅） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 旺季提振有限，低位震荡调整 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summa ...

行业 纸浆日报 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635727 日期 2025 年 9 月 30 日 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 021-60635727 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员:李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅多晶硅） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾 ...

国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货纸浆季报 低位运行，等待需求企稳 纸浆 2025 年 9 月 28 日 主要结论 三季度纸浆期货先涨后跌，当前维持低位震荡。 进口方面，据中华人民共和国海关总署数据显示，我国 2025 年 8 月份针叶 浆进口量 61.39 万吨，环比减少 5.01%，同比下滑 10.12%；1-8 月针叶浆累计进 口量 574.05 万吨，同比增加 1.43%。阔叶浆方面，8 月阔叶浆进口量 125.77 万 吨，环比减少 6.92%，同比下滑 1.43%；1-8 月累计进口量 1115.21 万吨，同比 增加 10.71%。整体来看，进口量表现平缓，补充国内木浆供应。 国信期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】116 号 港口库存方面，国内纸浆港口库存前期创新高后逐渐转降。据卓创资讯数据 监测显示，保定地区、天津港、日照港、青岛港、常熟港、上海港、高栏港及南 沙港等中国主要地区及港口周度纸浆库存量 198.96 万吨，周度环比下跌 4.49%， 由涨转跌。 据 UTIPULP 数据显示，2025 年 8 月欧洲化学纸浆消费量 70.08 万吨， 同比上升 2.35%；欧洲化学纸浆 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【纸浆周报（SP)】 纸浆底部区间显现，暂无利多驱动 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2025-09-22 杨璐琳 从业资格证号：F3042528 投资咨询证号：Z0015194 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 纸浆：纸浆底部区间显现，暂无利多驱动 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | Suzano宣布2025年9月亚洲价格上涨20美元/吨，欧美价格上涨80美元/吨；智利Arauco公司9月针叶浆银星报价700美元/吨；阔叶浆明星 报价540美元/吨，上涨20美元/吨；阔叶浆外盘连续两期外盘报价上涨，但针叶浆外盘报价下降。 | | 需求 | 偏空 | 目前木浆用纸的产量和价格没有出现明显的上涨，"金九银十"旺季并未带来纸浆库存去库，整体需求仍显清淡。 | | 库存 | 偏空 | 截止2025年9月18日，中国纸浆主流港口样本库存量：211.2万吨，较上期累库5.0万吨，环比上涨2.4%，库 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, pulp prices fluctuated within a range with reduced volatility. The near - term contradictions are not prominent. The relatively weak fundamentals have been priced in, and there are no new negative factors. Although the output of finished paper has increased, the upward driving force is still insufficient, and the market is expected to fluctuate. The Fed's interest rate cut has certain positive factors for long - term prices [1]. - In the near - term, the weak reality corresponds to weak prices. Port inventories are at a high level and de - stocking is not smooth. The prices of needle pulp and broadleaf pulp are restricted, but the impact of the Bu - needle warehouse receipt will weaken after the delivery of the 09 contract. In the long - term, the Fed's interest rate cut is beneficial to commodities, and the valuation of the 01 contract will increase, but there is no significant upward driving force for now [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Fundamentals**: The fundamentals are relatively weak, with Bu - needle warehouse receipt pressure, high inventory and poor de - stocking, and the so - called "peak season is not prosperous". However, these factors have been priced in, and there are no new negative factors. The output of finished paper has increased this week, showing some improvement [1]. - **Macroeconomics**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to the 4.00% - 4.25% range in September, which is the first rate cut since December 2024. This is due to slow employment growth and rising unemployment. It has certain positive factors for long - term prices [1]. 1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - **Futures**: It is recommended to wait and see, as the current market is in a state of range - bound fluctuations with limited bottom space and insufficient upward driving force, and the trading opportunities are not significant [5]. - **Options**: Consider selling near - month out - of - the - money call options and selling far - month out - of - the - money put options [5]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high needle pulp inventory worried about price drops, they can short pulp futures to lock in profits, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 5200 - 5300 [8]. - **Procurement Management**: For papermaking enterprises with low inventory and planning to purchase according to orders, they can buy pulp futures to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 4900 - 5000 [8]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The US exempted pulp from the 50% tariff on Brazilian goods in July 2025 and further cancelled tariffs on most Brazilian pulp exports in September, reducing the export cost of Brazilian broadleaf pulp to the US and increasing the proportion of exports to the US [8]. - **Negative Information**: Since September, the pulp market has been sluggish, lacking the consumption support of the so - called "Golden September and Silver October" peak season [9]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: The report provides the latest prices, price changes, and other information of various pulp futures contracts and domestic spot pulp and finished paper [10][13]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Single - side Trend and Capital Movement**: Last week, the sp2511 contract fluctuated with a small range, and the weekly position decreased by 21,328 lots [15]. - **Basis and Spread Structure**: The spread structure remains in a C - structure and has strengthened, indicating some improvement in long - term expectations [18]. Chapter 4: Supply, Demand, and Inventory - **Inventory**: As of September 18, the inventory was 2.122 million tons, an increase of 60,000 tons, ending two weeks of de - stocking and turning to inventory accumulation. High - level inventory is difficult to reduce, and high shipments and high inventory restrict the upward elasticity of pulp prices [20]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply pressure is still large, while the demand has slightly improved, and there is a certain degree of differentiation in finished paper. The output of most finished paper has increased, but the production profit of downstream enterprises has not improved [20].

Report Overview - Report Title: Pulp Morning Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center - Date: September 19, 2025 [2] SP Main Contract Closing Price - On September 18, 2025, the SP main contract closing price was 5014.00, with a previous day's closing price of 5042.00, a decrease of 0.55534%. The discount to the US dollar price was 615.54 [3]. - The price trends from September 12 - 18, 2025, showed fluctuations, with the highest closing price of 5068.00 on September 16 and the lowest of 4990.00 on September 12 [3]. Basis and Import Profit - The Shandong Yinxing basis on September 18, 2025, was 611, and the Jiangsu - Zhejiang - Shanghai Yinxing basis was 636 [3]. - Import profit calculations for different pulp brands: Canadian Golden Lion had an import profit of - 136.75, Canadian Lion had - 485.04, and Chilean Yinxing had - 229.70, all calculated with 13% VAT and an exchange rate of 7.11 [4]. Pulp and Paper Prices and Margins - From September 12 - 18, 2025, the national average prices of coniferous pulp, broad - leaf pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged, as did the Shandong regional average prices [4]. - For paper products, cultural paper (double - offset and double - copper indices), packaging paper (white card index) remained stable from September 15 - 18, 2025, while the living paper index increased by 4 [4]. - The profit margins of different paper products showed slight changes from September 15 - 18, 2025. Double - offset paper profit margin increased by 0.0506, double - copper paper by 0.0459, white card paper by 0.0368, and living paper by 0.0764 [4]. Pulp Price Spreads - The price spreads between different types of pulp (coniferous - broadleaf, coniferous - natural, coniferous - chemimechanical, coniferous - wastepaper) showed a decreasing trend from September 12 - 18, 2025 [4].

021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 行业 纸浆日报 日期 2025 年 9 月 18 日 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 021-60635727 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员:李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅多晶硅） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾 ...

机构观点 建信期货： 短期纸浆供应相对充裕，下游纸厂开工有所回升但成本压力下低价采买为主，延续低位震荡调整。 消息面 截止2025年9月11日，中国纸浆主流港口样本库存量：206.2万吨，较上期去库0.4万吨，环比下降 0.2%，库存量在本周期变动不大，呈现窄幅去库的走势。 2025年8月纸浆进口总量265.3万吨，环比-7.8%，同比-5.6%，累计2410.8万吨，累计同比+5.0%。 9月16日，上期所纸浆仓库期货仓单226594吨，环比上个交易日减少186吨；纸浆厂库期货仓单18240 吨，环比上个交易日持平。 国信期货： 业者基于成本面压力持续挺价，浆市跟涨意愿不明显。下游原纸企业利润改善欠佳，持续降本增效，对 于高价接受度有限，逢低采购为主，交投不旺。关注需求企稳情况，操作建议暂时观望。 ...

行业 纸浆日报 日期 2025 年 9 月 17 日 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 021-60635727 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员:李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅多晶硅） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp futures have reached an absolute low, but there is no upward driving force at present. It is recommended to wait and see. The supply is relatively strong, the demand is neutral, the inventory is bearish, and the valuation is relatively strong [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Suzano announced price increases in September 2025, with a $20/ton increase in Asia and an $80/ton increase in Europe and the United States. The foreign market quotes have risen for two consecutive periods, strongly supporting domestic pulp prices. The pulp supply in the fourth quarter is expected to decline as the shipment volume from three South American countries to China decreased in August [3]. - **Demand**: The monthly output of major finished paper has increased, but the prices of mainstream finished paper are running at a low level. Some white cardboard and offset paper mills have issued price increase letters, but the implementation remains to be confirmed [3]. - **Inventory**: As of September 11, 2025, the inventory of mainstream ports in China was 2.062 million tons, a decrease of 0.4 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decline of 0.2%. The inventory is at a high level with a narrow - range de - stocking trend [3]. - **Valuation**: The basis of broadleaf pulp has strengthened to over - 1000 yuan, and pulp futures have entered a low - valuation range [3]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: Pulp futures have reached an absolute low, but there is no upward driving force. It is recommended to wait and see. Pay attention to the de - stocking of pulp warehouse receipts [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Futures Market**: Last week, pulp futures fluctuated at a low level. After hitting a low, they rebounded slightly, but the high inventory indicates that the supply - demand situation has not improved significantly. Next week, focus on whether the warehouse receipts decrease after the delivery of the 09 contract is completed [7]. - **Spot Market**: The price of broadleaf pulp is stable, while the price of silver star has decreased. The price of coniferous pulp silver star is 5620 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 80 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 200 yuan/ton. The price of coniferous pulp cloth needle is 4950 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 130 yuan/ton. The price of broadleaf pulp goldfish is 4150 yuan/ton, a week - on - week and month - on - month decrease of 20 yuan/ton [16]. - **Foreign Market Quotes**: In August, Arauco notified that the price of coniferous pulp silver star was $720/ton, the price of broadleaf pulp star was $520/ton with a 50% reduction in supply, and the price of natural pulp Venus was $590/ton. Suzano announced price increases in September 2025 [20]. - **Total Futures Positions**: As of September 12, 2025, the total positions of pulp futures contracts were 365,839 lots, a 6.11% increase from last week. The positions of the main pulp futures contract were 187,747 lots, a 2.35% increase from last week [21]. 3.3 Pulp Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In July, the import volume of pulp decreased. The total pulp import volume was 2.877 million tons, a 5.08% decrease from the previous period. The import volume of coniferous pulp was 646,000 tons, a 4.72% decrease, and the import volume of broadleaf pulp was 1.351 million tons, a 5.85% decrease. The import volume of broadleaf wood chips was 1.341 million tons, a 3.79% increase [4]. - **Inventory**: The pulp port and warehouse receipt quantities have decreased. As of September 11, 2025, the port pulp inventory was 2.062 million tons, a 0.19% decrease from the previous period, and the delivery warehouse inventory was 245,000 tons, a 0.73% decrease [4]. - **Overseas Inventory**: The inventory of overseas pulp mills has changed. The inventory days of world 20 - country commodity pulp suppliers at the end of July were 47 days. The inventory days of bleached softwood pulp were 50 days, and the inventory days of bleached hardwood pulp were 45 days. In July 2025, the European port pulp inventory at the end of the month was 1.5275 million tons, a 1.9% month - on - month decrease [50]. - **Downstream Demand**: - **Price**: As of September 12, 2025, the price of offset paper was 4818 yuan/ton, a 2.65% month - on - month decrease; the price of coated paper was 5000 yuan/ton, a 2.9% month - on - month decrease; the price of tissue paper was 5583 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month; the price of white cardboard was 3964 yuan/ton, a 0.35% month - on - month increase [55]. - **Output**: In August 2025, the output of offset paper was 724,000 tons, a 1.7% month - on - month decrease and a 9.4% year - on - year decrease; the output of coated paper was 375,000 tons, a 1.7% month - on - month decrease and a 2.2% year - on - year increase; the output of tissue paper was 840,000 tons, a 6.8% month - on - month increase and a 13.5% year - on - year increase; the output of white cardboard was 958,000 tons, a 4.5% month - on - month decrease and a 5.4% year - on - year decrease [62]. - **Inventory**: As of August 2025, the inventory of offset paper was 1.76 million tons, a 1.8% month - on - month increase and a 6.8% year - on - year increase; the inventory of coated paper was 1.182 million tons, a 0.34% month - on - month increase and a 1.5% year - on - year decrease; the inventory of tissue paper was 355,000 tons, an 8.9% month - on - month decrease and an 8.23% year - on - year increase; the inventory of white cardboard was 2.2899 million tons, a 0.5% month - on - month increase and a 5% year - on - year decrease [69]. - **European and American Demand**: In July 2025, the inventory - to - consumption ratio of European coniferous pulp decreased, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio of broadleaf pulp decreased. The inventory - to - consumption ratio of European coniferous pulp was 27.2 days, a 1.3 - day month - on - month decrease and a 2.1 - day year - on - year increase; the inventory - to - consumption ratio of broadleaf pulp was 24.1 days, a 2.5 - day month - on - month decrease and a 2.8 - day year - on - year increase. As of July 2025, the capacity utilization rate of US paper products was 82.92%, a 0.30% month - on - month decrease. In June 2025, the inventory - sales ratio of US paper products was 1.06, a 0.01 month - on - month increase and a 0.05 year - on - year increase [96]. 3.4 Pulp Futures Valuation - **Spread**: The basis of broadleaf Russian needle has strengthened, and the 11 - 1 inter - month spread has widened. As of September 12, 2025, the basis of Shandong Russian needle was - 40 yuan/ton, a 52 - yuan/ton increase from last week; the basis of Shandong silver star was 630 yuan/ton, an 8 - yuan/ton decrease from last week. The 11 - 1 month spread was - 288 yuan/ton, a 22 - yuan/ton decrease from last week [102]. - **Import Profit**: As of September 12, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp was - 178 yuan/ton, a 66 - yuan/ton decrease from last week; the import profit of broadleaf pulp was - 43 yuan/ton, a 17 - yuan/ton decrease from last week [106]. - **Needle - Broadleaf Spread**: As of September 12, 2025, the needle - broadleaf spread in Shandong, China, was 1437 yuan/ton, a 55 - yuan/ton decrease from last week. In July 2024, the needle - broadleaf import ratio in China was 0.48, a 0.01 increase from the previous month [108].