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江苏国泰(002091):首次覆盖报告:江苏纺服外贸龙头,贸易、化工双轮驱动
Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company, with a target price of 11.52 RMB based on a 15x PE for 2026, resulting in a target market value of 187.5 billion RMB [1][16]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading player in textile trade and the electrolyte sector, benefiting from the global restructuring of consumer goods supply chains and the recovery of the new energy industry. The core trading business maintains steady growth through global capacity layout, while the chemical new materials segment is expected to contribute to earnings elasticity due to increased orders from battery clients and improved supply structure [4][13]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts total revenue for 2025-2027 to be 398.6 billion, 413.3 billion, and 425.4 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of +2.3%, +3.7%, and +2.9% respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 11.93 billion, 12.50 billion, and 13.07 billion RMB, with growth rates of +7.9%, +4.8%, and +4.5% respectively [14][15]. Business Overview - The company operates primarily in the textile trade, which accounts for over 90% of its revenue. The chemical business, while facing challenges, still plays a role in the overall performance. The trading segment is expected to grow steadily, while the chemical segment is projected to recover gradually as market conditions improve [25][19]. Supply Chain Strategy - The company has shifted towards a "world supply chain integration" model, with significant investments in overseas production facilities, particularly in Southeast Asia and Africa. This strategy aims to mitigate external disruptions and ensure stable core orders [4][41]. New Energy and Materials Sector - The new energy materials segment, led by the subsidiary RuTai New Materials, is focused on lithium battery materials and organic silicon. The company anticipates a recovery in this sector as supply and demand dynamics improve, despite facing price pressures in the short term [20][4].