Core Insights - The National Association for Business Economics (NABE) predicts a slight acceleration in U.S. economic growth to 2% next year, up from 1.8% in the previous survey [1] - Increased personal spending and business investment are expected to drive economic growth, but new import tariffs from the Trump administration are projected to drag growth down by at least 0.25 percentage points [1] - The report identifies "tariff impact" as the largest downside risk to the U.S. economic outlook, with stricter immigration enforcement also seen as a factor suppressing growth [1] Economic Indicators - Inflation is expected to be 2.9% by the end of this year, slightly lower than the previous forecast of 3%, and is projected to decrease only marginally to 2.6% next year, with tariffs contributing 0.25 to 0.75 percentage points [1] - Job growth is anticipated to remain moderate, with an average of approximately 64,000 new jobs added monthly, significantly below recent averages [1] - The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.5% by early 2026 and remain at that level throughout the year [1] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in December, with an additional 50 basis points reduction anticipated next year, approaching a neutral monetary policy rate [1]