证券研究报告|策略定期研究 2026年03月02日 水电等主题右侧突破 ——主题形态学输出0227 证券分析师： 研究助理： 周浦寒 S0210524040007 杨逸帆 S0210124110046 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 华福证券 华福证券 投资要点 Ø 风险提示：历史经验不代表未来;行业不确定性风险;国内经济复苏速度不及预期;海外 降息节奏不及预期;地缘政治风险。 2 华福证券 华福证券 Ø 主题形态学，0227最新输出： l 1）右侧突破，新增：水电、代糖、小金属、聚碳酸酯、钛白粉、有机硅、磷化 工、超硬材料、钒电池、半导体材料、半导体设备、MLCC、LNG等。 l 2）右侧趋势，持续：光伏，POE胶膜，BC电池。 l 3）底部企稳，新增：信托重仓、医美等。 l 4）底部反转，持续：六氟磷酸锂，锂电电解液，手机电池，白酒，品牌龙头。 录 n 主题形态学最新输出 n 风险提示 目 3 华福证券 华福证券 主题形态学的最新输出 备注：1）本文数据更新至2026/02/27。下同。2）主题形态构建的具体内容参考2025/12/14发布的专题报告《主题形态学三板斧》。3）主题形态的已持续天 数，指信号出 ...

Core Viewpoint - The polycarbonate (PC) industry is at a critical stage of "climbing over hurdles," emphasizing the need for high-end, differentiated, and green development to transition from price competition to value competition [1][2]. Industry Overview - China's PC production capacity has significantly increased from 1.66 million tons in 2019 to 3.81 million tons in 2024, accounting for 48% of global capacity, with a compound annual growth rate of 15.5% over five years [1]. - The apparent demand for PC in 2024 is projected to reach 3.6 million tons, approximately half of the global demand [1]. Structural Challenges - The PC industry faces structural contradictions, with low-end capacity surplus and insufficient high-end supply. The self-sufficiency rate for general-grade products exceeds 100%, while the domestic production rate for high-end grades like medical and optical grades is below 30% [2]. - Since 2021, China's PC production capacity has surpassed apparent consumption, leading to an average capacity utilization rate of only 65% over the past five years [2]. Financial Performance - The average gross profit margin for the industry fell to negative values in the first quarter of 2025, indicating challenges from price competition and cost pressures [2]. Growth Opportunities - The decline in PC prices and its superior performance have spurred rapid growth in emerging sectors such as new energy vehicles and high-end medical applications, presenting new growth opportunities for the PC industry [2]. Strategic Recommendations - The industry should focus on technological advancements to achieve product high-endization, aiming to increase the proportion of high-end grades to over 40% [2]. - Embracing green transformation in line with the "dual carbon" goals by developing recycling systems for waste PC and bio-based PC is essential for promoting a circular economy [2]. - Collaborative efforts along the industrial chain are necessary to mitigate risks, with a focus on establishing application standards in high-end fields like aerospace and neurosurgery [2].

Core Insights - The PC industry is currently at a critical stage of "climbing over hurdles," emphasizing the need for high-end, differentiated, and green development to transition from price competition to value competition [1][2] Industry Overview - China's PC production capacity has significantly increased from 1.66 million tons in 2019 to 3.81 million tons in 2024, accounting for 48% of global capacity, with a compound annual growth rate of 15.5% over five years [1] - The apparent demand for PC in 2024 is projected to reach 3.6 million tons, approximately half of the global demand [1] Challenges and Opportunities - The industry faces structural contradictions with low-end overcapacity and insufficient high-end supply, as the self-sufficiency rate for general-grade products exceeds 100%, while the domestic production rate for high-end grades like medical and optical grades is below 30% [2] - Since 2021, China's PC production capacity has surpassed apparent consumption, leading to an average capacity utilization rate of only 65% over the past five years [2] - The average gross profit margin for the industry fell to negative values in Q1 2025, indicating challenges from price competition and cost pressures [2] Strategic Recommendations - The industry should focus on technological advancements to achieve product high-endization, aiming to increase the share of high-end grades to over 40% by targeting core goals such as optical-grade transparency of ≥92% and medical-grade certification [2] - Embracing a green transformation in line with the "dual carbon" goals is essential, including the development of recycling systems for waste PC and bio-based PC to promote a circular economy [2] - Collaborative efforts across the industry chain are necessary to mitigate risks, with a focus on establishing application standards in high-end fields like aerospace and neurosurgery [2]

Core Viewpoint - The PC industry is transitioning from "price competition" to "value competition" by focusing on high-end, differentiated, and green development to overcome current challenges [2][3]. Industry Overview - The PC industry in China has seen significant capacity growth, increasing from 1.66 million tons in 2019 to 3.81 million tons by 2024, accounting for 48% of global capacity with a compound annual growth rate of 15.5% over five years [2]. - The apparent demand for PC in 2024 is projected to reach 3.6 million tons, representing about half of global demand [2]. Current Challenges - The industry faces structural contradictions with low-end capacity surplus and insufficient high-end supply, where the self-sufficiency rate for general-grade products exceeds 100%, while the domestic production rate for high-end grades like medical and optical grades is below 30% [3]. - Since 2021, China's PC capacity has surpassed apparent consumption, leading to an average capacity utilization rate of only 65% over the past five years [3]. - The average gross profit margin for the industry fell to negative values in Q1 2025, indicating challenges from price competition and cost pressures [3]. Future Development Strategies - The industry aims to achieve product high-endization through technological advancements, targeting core goals such as optical-grade transparency of ≥92%, medical-grade certification, and mass production of bio-based PC, with a goal to increase the share of high-end grades to over 40% [3]. - Embracing the "dual carbon" era, the industry is focusing on green transformation by developing recycling systems for waste PC and bio-based PC, promoting a circular economy [3]. - Collaborative efforts along the industrial chain are encouraged to mitigate risks, with a focus on establishing application standards in high-end fields like aerospace and neurosurgery [3].