科技成长攻守兼备，看好机械中盘蓝筹投资机会 20251222 摘要 反内卷政策推动行业现金流改善，通用设备和工程机械大型机型占比增 加，提升企业盈利能力，龙头企业有望保持较好增速。 预计 2026 年国内机械板块增速和盈利状况改善，下游需求恢复降低市 场风险，中盘蓝筹因市值适中、主业稳定且具成长性，投资潜力巨大。 锂电装备收入增速逐季改善，新签和在手订单大幅增长，新能源反内卷 优化下游格局，固态电池量产在即，设备需求强劲，主业状态良好且具 成长性。 工业母机产量与收入增速稳定，明年有望边际改善，船舶与航空航天需 求抵消汽车端压力，大型机型采购增加提升毛利率，国产替代空间巨大， 高端化发展可期。 预计明年油气装备需求改善，中国增加油气资本开支，美国推进油气开 发，数据中心对天然气需求增加，油气装备公司业务敞口扩大，需求与 成长性显著提升。 Q&A 2026 年机械行业的总体增长预期如何？ 对于 2026 年的机械行业，我们预期整体需求将保持平稳增长。在科技赋能和 政策支持的背景下，中盘蓝筹和机器人领域将成为核心投资主线。具体来看， 国内政策对机械板块的支持将使得龙头企业保持较好的增速。此外，从今年下 半年开始， ...

Core Insights - The mechanical equipment industry is expected to experience stable growth in 2026, driven by domestic policy support and the increasing importance of technology empowerment, particularly benefiting mid-cap blue-chip companies [3][8][15] - Key investment opportunities are identified in eight sub-sectors: lithium battery equipment, industrial mother machines, oil and gas equipment, forklift equipment, machinery for overseas markets, engineering machinery, coal machinery, and light industrial equipment [3][18] - The humanoid robot sector is approaching a production inflection point, presenting investment opportunities for mid-cap blue-chip companies within this segment [3][8] Sub-sector Summaries 1. Lithium Battery Equipment - The lithium battery equipment sector is showing signs of recovery, with a significant increase in new orders, reflecting a growth trend [19][21] - The industry is expected to benefit from the development of solid-state batteries, with commercial production anticipated by 2027, leading to increased demand for related equipment [23][25] 2. Industrial Mother Machines - The industrial mother machine sector is projected to maintain stable growth, supported by favorable policies and increasing domestic demand [27][29] - The market is expected to see improvements in profitability as the demand for high-end CNC machines increases, with a current low penetration rate of domestic products [30] 3. Oil and Gas Equipment - The oil and gas equipment sector faced challenges in 2025 but is expected to recover in 2026 due to policy support and increasing demand [33][35] - The sector is likely to benefit from the growing demand for gas turbines driven by the rapid construction of data centers [35][36] 4. Forklift Equipment - The forklift industry demonstrated resilience in 2025, with sales growth driven by domestic and international demand [39][41] - The introduction of AI-powered products is expected to create new growth opportunities in the sector [46] 5. Machinery for Overseas Markets - The machinery sector for overseas markets faced challenges in 2025 but is anticipated to recover in 2026 as U.S. demand improves [49][57] - Companies are expected to enhance their profitability through cost management strategies and product optimization [57] 6. Engineering Machinery - The engineering machinery sector is experiencing growth driven by both domestic and international markets, with significant sales increases in excavators [59][61] - The sector is expected to benefit from ongoing infrastructure projects and the replacement of aging equipment [61][62] 7. Coal Machinery - The coal machinery sector is under pressure in 2025 but is projected to improve in 2026 as market conditions stabilize [68]