Carrier Global (NYSE:CARR) FY Conference Summary Industry Overview - The conference focused on the HVAC (Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning) industry, particularly in the residential and commercial segments, as well as the data center market. Key Points and Arguments Company Transformation and Strategy - Carrier has undergone significant transformation, focusing on a balanced portfolio aligned with enduring secular trends, leading to strong market positioning globally [2][8] - The company has outlined a growth strategy emphasizing leadership in products, aftermarket, and systems, with a consistent track record of controlling costs and delivering results [2][5] Financial Performance - Earnings per share (EPS) has grown at a 17% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) since 2022, with a 25% increase in the first half of the current year [2] - The first half of the year saw flat volume compared to the previous year, but sales increased in the mid-teens percentage range [3] Challenges in Residential HVAC - The North American residential HVAC market is facing significant challenges, with a forecasted volume decline of over 40% in Q3 compared to the previous year [4] - A nearly 30% reduction in industry volumes was reported in July, marking the weakest Q3 volume in over a decade [3][4] - High interest rates and consumer spending pressures are leading to delayed HVAC activity and aggressive inventory reductions by distributors [4][5] Sales Shortfall and Adjusted EPS Impact - The company anticipates a sales shortfall of over $500 million in Q3, translating to an adjusted EPS headwind of $0.20 to $0.25 [5] - Approximately half of the shortfall is attributed to inventory reductions and half to lower consumer demand [5] Commercial HVAC and Data Center Growth - The global commercial HVAC business, valued at approximately $6.5 billion, is on track for its fifth consecutive year of double-digit revenue growth, particularly strong in North America [5][17] - Data center sales are projected to reach $1 billion this year, doubling from the previous year, with strong demand and backlog growth anticipated [6][18] Cost Management and Productivity - Carrier has achieved 100 basis points of annual margin expansion over the past few years and is focused on reducing fixed costs and indirect headcount by over 2,000 [7][55] - The company is taking aggressive cost actions to mitigate the impact of lower volumes [7] Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The company expects to see a return to growth in its Climate Solutions segments in Asia and Transportation by Q3 [6] - Despite current challenges, Carrier is optimistic about long-term growth, particularly in commercial HVAC and aftermarket services, which are expected to continue double-digit growth [44][50] Regulatory Environment - Concerns were raised regarding potential EPA regulations on refrigerants, with Carrier advocating against a return to 410A due to the negative implications for pricing and consumer impact [29][30] M&A and Strategic Positioning - The acquisition of Viessmann Climate Solutions is viewed positively, with Carrier well-positioned in the European market for residential and light commercial HVAC [34][35] - The company is leveraging synergies from the acquisition, targeting $200 million in cost synergies over three years, with revenue synergies on track to meet expectations [38][39] Regional Performance - Asia's performance is mixed, with expectations for growth outside of China, particularly in India and the Middle East [42] - The residential market in China is facing challenges, but overall growth is anticipated as inventory levels normalize [43] Aftermarket Services - Carrier's aftermarket business is expected to grow double digits, driven by opportunities in parts and service, supported by digital capabilities [44][45] Additional Important Insights - The company is actively pursuing innovations in energy management solutions, such as integrated battery systems for heat pumps, which are expected to gain traction in the market [47][48] - Carrier's strategic investments in R&D and technician training are aimed at enhancing its competitive position in the HVAC market [22][23] This summary encapsulates the key insights and strategic directions discussed during the conference, highlighting both the challenges and opportunities facing Carrier Global in the HVAC industry.

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Modine reported a 3% increase in total sales for Q1, driven primarily by growth in the Climate Solutions segment [25] - Adjusted earnings per share was $1.06, a 2% increase compared to the prior year [27] - Adjusted EBITDA margin decreased by 40 basis points to 14.9% due to lower performance in the Performance Technologies segment [26] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Climate Solutions segment saw an 11% increase in revenue and a 10% improvement in adjusted EBITDA, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 20% [18] - Data center sales grew by $24 million or 15% from the prior year, primarily due to higher sales in North America [18] - Performance Technologies revenues declined by 8%, with adjusted EBITDA down 14% and adjusted EBITDA margin decreasing to 13.1% [21][23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America data center business is experiencing extraordinary demand, with expectations to approach $2 billion in revenues by fiscal 2028 [11] - The company anticipates a significant acceleration in data center sales in the second half of the fiscal year, projecting a growth of over 80% [31] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on organic growth through capacity investments and product innovation, with a recent $100 million investment to expand manufacturing capacity [9] - Recent acquisitions are aimed at expanding the product portfolio and creating scale in key climate solutions businesses [5][8] - The company is maintaining a balanced portfolio with a strong focus on high-growth areas like data centers while managing costs in underperforming segments [14][16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in raising revenue and earnings outlook for fiscal 2026, driven by strong market demand and recent acquisitions [5][30] - The Performance Technologies segment is expected to continue facing market headwinds, but management is optimistic about future profitability as volumes return [14][24] - The company is committed to reinvesting in growth and expects to see margin improvements in the second half of the fiscal year [26][32] Other Important Information - The company generated $200,000 of free cash flow in the quarter, lower than the prior year due to higher inventory levels [28] - Net debt increased by $123 million compared to the prior fiscal year end, primarily due to recent acquisitions [29] - The company plans to invest an additional $100 million in capital expenditures over the next 12 to 18 months [33] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you talk about the magnitude of unabsorbed cost in the Climate business related to the DC build-out? - Management indicated that core capacity will convert at good margins, but incremental capital investments may convert at a lower rate due to added resources for engineering support [40] Question: How should we think about the fiscal 2027 data center revenue target? - Management suggested a straight-line approach for estimating fiscal 2027 revenue, trending towards a billion this fiscal year [42] Question: Will margins improve in the second half of the year? - Management expects total company margins to improve, primarily driven by Performance Technologies, with significant volume increases anticipated in the second half [45] Question: Can you provide clarity on capacity expansion and expected revenue? - Management stated that to achieve the $2 billion goal for fiscal 2028, approximately $2.5 billion in capacity is needed, with the recent $100 million investment expected to significantly contribute to this capacity [54] Question: What is the expected interest expense for fiscal 2026? - Management estimated interest expense to be in the range of $28 million to $30 million for fiscal 2026 [85]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Organic sales grew by 6% in Q3 2025, with segment margins expanding by 20 basis points to 17.6% [4][22] - Adjusted EPS increased by 11% year-over-year, reaching $1.05, exceeding guidance [23] - Year-to-date adjusted free cash flow nearly doubled to $1.8 billion, with over 100% free cash flow conversion expected for the year [4][29] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Orders grew by 2%, with strength in The Americas offset by softness in China [5][24] - In The Americas, orders increased by 5%, while EMEA saw a 2% rise, and APAC experienced a decline [24][25] - Adjusted segment EBITDA margins improved across regions, with EMEA up 100 basis points to 14.1% and APAC up 70 basis points to 19.4% [26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The backlog grew by 11% to a record $14.6 billion, with both system and service backlogs increasing [5][27] - Sales in The Americas rose by 7% organically, driven by HVAC and controls [25] - APAC sales grew by 6% organically, with strong double-digit growth in the service business [26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on customer centricity, operational efficiency, and innovation to drive growth [7][8] - A new business system is being developed, emphasizing simplification, acceleration, and scaling through lean principles and digitization [12][14] - The company is evaluating its portfolio for potential acquisitions or exits to ensure sustainable growth [18][19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strength of core vertical markets despite challenges in China [63] - The company anticipates low single-digit organic sales growth in Q4, with a reaffirmation of mid-single-digit growth for the full year [27][28] - There is a focus on improving operational efficiency and cash flow conversion, with expectations of maintaining over 100% free cash flow conversion [29][50] Other Important Information - The sale of the residential and light commercial HVAC business to Bosch is expected to close in Q4, with most proceeds returned to shareholders [30] - The company is committed to returning 100% of free cash flow to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases [29] Q&A Session Summary Question: Initial observations and KPIs focus - Management highlighted the need to sharpen customer focus and drive growth through innovation and operational improvements [34][35] Question: Accelerating growth in Fire and Security - Management sees potential in both HVAC and Fire and Security, with plans to apply new business systems to improve performance [45][46] Question: Free cash flow opportunities - Management noted strong cash flow performance driven by improved collection management and operational efficiencies [49][50] Question: Orders and growth outlook - Management expressed confidence in healthy pipelines despite lower-than-expected order growth, particularly in China [62][63] Question: 2026 outlook and Investor Day - Management is working on the 2026 plan and aims to provide a clearer long-term outlook as the year progresses [72][74]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue for the second quarter grew by 3% compared to the previous year, with a segment margin reaching a record 23.6%, an increase of 170 basis points [6][11] - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for the second quarter was $7.82, with operating cash flow reported at $87 million [6][11] - The full-year adjusted EPS outlook has been raised to a range of $23.25 to $24.25, reflecting strong execution in a challenging environment [8][20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Home Comfort Solutions (HCS) segment saw a 3% revenue increase driven by favorable product mix and pricing, despite a decline in sales volume due to inventory destocking and market conditions [12][13] - Building Climate Solutions (BCS) segment achieved a 5% revenue increase, supported by emergency replacement products, although overall market demand remained weak [15][16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted softness in new construction demand and industry-wide refrigerant canister shortages impacting sales [6][7] - The transition to low GWP refrigerants is ongoing, with approximately 90% of refrigerant-based product sales now utilizing the new R454B refrigerant [12][21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on executing its transformation strategy introduced in 2022, with an emphasis on digital customer experience, ductless technology, and expanding its product portfolio through strategic partnerships [25][26] - Joint ventures with Samsung and Ariston are expected to enhance product offerings and customer experience, with significant contributions anticipated starting in 2026 and 2027 respectively [9][10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate ongoing challenges, citing improved factory productivity and a strong operational execution [23][24] - The outlook for the second half of the year is cautiously optimistic, with expectations of stabilization in demand and continued margin expansion [20][21] Other Important Information - The company has authorized an additional $1 billion in share repurchases and increased its quarterly dividend by approximately 15% [16][17] - Inventory levels are expected to normalize in the second half of the year, following temporary investments to support the transition to new products [16][92] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you discuss the price and cost dynamics, particularly regarding A2L manufacturing costs and tariffs? - Management indicated that both cost and price are in line with expectations, with productivity improvements driving margin expansion [30][34] Question: What are the volume assumptions for the second half? - Volume guidance for HCS is expected to decline by about 8%, while BCS is projected to decline by about 4% [35][36] Question: Can you confirm the margin outlook for the full year? - The company is projecting about a 50 basis point expansion in margins for the full year, with both segments expected to show margin improvement [40][41] Question: What are the expectations regarding the Ariston partnership and market share? - Early feedback from dealers on the water heater business has been positive, with meaningful growth expected starting in 2027 [54][57] Question: How is the company managing inventory and what is the outlook for the second half? - The company plans to reduce inventory levels to normal by the end of the year, with a focus on balancing supply and demand [92][93]

Company Overview - AAON's order backlog is $1 billion[17] - AAON's gross margin is 31%[17] - AAON's EBITDA margin is 211%[17] - AAON's CapEx and R&D as a percentage of sales is 216%[17] - AAON's EPS is $190[17] - AAON's ROIC is 167%[17] BASX Overview - BASX's backlog at 1Q25 is $623 million, up 123% year over year[128] - BASX has had a three-year CAGR of ~40% in a market growing ~10%[26] - BASX air-side cooling sales (~$166M in 2024) expected to grow >20% for the next three years[162] Financial Targets - The company is affirming its 3-year targets of 32%-35% gross margin and 125%-plus organic sales CAGR[71]