Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, after production cuts in the southwest, the supply - demand pattern may improve, but inventory accumulation continues. The industrial silicon futures price is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are relevant capacity - exit policies, the futures price may rise. For polysilicon, the supply - demand situation is poor, with continuous inventory increases and high inventory pressure. The futures price is affected by anti - involution policies and weak market reality, and is expected to fluctuate mainly [3][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On December 22, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was in a volatile state. The main contract 2605 opened at 8685 yuan/ton and closed at 8595 yuan/ton, a change of (-45) yuan/ton or (-0.52)% compared to the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2601 was 221,606 lots at the close, and the number of warehouse receipts on December 21 was 9019 lots, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon was basically stable. According to SMM data, the price of East China oxygen - permeable 553 silicon was 9200 - 9300 (50) yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9500 - 9800 (0) yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - permeable 553 silicon was 8600 - 8900 (0) yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8600 - 8900 (0) yuan/ton. Silicon prices in various regions were flat, and the price of 97 silicon was stable [1]. - On December 18, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 553,000 tons, a change of -1.43% compared to the previous week. Among them, the inventory in social ordinary warehouses was 138,000 tons, an increase of 2000 tons compared to the previous week, and the inventory in social delivery warehouses (including unregistered warehouse receipts and spot inventory) was 415,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons compared to the previous week [1]. Consumption End - The quotation of silicone DMC was 13,500 - 13,700 (0) yuan/ton. The weekly output of polysilicon was basically stable, and the planned output in December was around 114,000 tons, with a slight decrease compared to November, resulting in limited change in the demand for industrial silicon. The weekly production schedule of silicone fluctuated slightly compared to the previous week. In early December, monomer plants gradually reduced production, and the consumption of industrial silicon in December may decrease by about 5000 tons [2]. - The operating rate of aluminum - silicon alloy enterprises remained stable. The secondary aluminum enterprises in Chongqing that reduced production due to air pollution last week maintained the reduced - production state this week. The downstream demand of the aluminum alloy industry showed marginal weakness, and the subsequent operating rate is expected to be stable with a weak trend [2]. Strategy - The spot price is basically stable. After production cuts in the southwest, the supply - demand pattern may improve, but inventory accumulation continues. The industrial silicon futures price is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. Pay attention to whether there are relevant capacity - exit policies. Currently, the valuation of industrial silicon is low, and if there is policy support, the futures price may rise. For unilateral trading, short - term range operation is recommended [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On December 22, 2025, the main contract 2605 of polysilicon futures fluctuated downward, opening at 60,000 yuan/ton and closing at 58,845 yuan/ton, a change of -2.08% compared to the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 134,949 (139,187 in the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume was 213,280 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon declined slightly. According to SMM statistics, the price of N - type material was 49.80 - 55.00 (0.00) yuan/kg, and the price of N - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 51.00 (0.00) yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 29.30 (with a 0.00% change compared to the previous period), and the silicon wafer inventory was 21.50GW, a decrease of -7.73% compared to the previous period. The weekly output of polysilicon was 25,000 tons, a change of -0.40% compared to the previous period, and the silicon wafer output was 10.67GW, a change of -12.18% compared to the previous period [4]. - For silicon wafers, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.23 (0.03) yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.53 (0.03) yuan/piece, and the price of N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.30 (0.05) yuan/piece [4][5]. - For battery cells, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 (0.00) yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W, TopconM10 battery cells were about 0.30 (0.00) yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.31 (0.02) yuan/W, Topcon210RN battery cells were 0.31 (0.02) yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery cells were 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W [5]. - For components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.66 - 0.68 (0.00) yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 (0.00) yuan/W [5]. Strategy - The supply - demand situation of polysilicon is poor, with continuous inventory increases and high inventory pressure. The consumption end performance is average. The futures price is affected by anti - involution policies and weak market reality. After the establishment of the platform company, pay attention to the subsequent production and sales restrictions. The futures price has large fluctuations recently, and participants need to pay attention to risk management. Currently, the consumption end performance is average, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate mainly. For unilateral trading, short - term range operation is recommended, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 54,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton [6].