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有色金属周报:原料与需求相搏弈,沪锌高位震荡-20251110
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-11-10 09:00
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, zinc prices are supported by a tightened ore end and a continuous decline in TC, but the weak domestic consumption and开工 decline in some areas due to environmental protection limit the upside space of zinc prices. The zinc prices may face pressure in the short term, and attention should be paid to the resistance level of 23,000 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - SMM1 zinc ingot average price rose 1.62% to 22,570 yuan/ton; Shanghai zinc main contract closing price rose 1.63% to 22,720 yuan/ton; LME zinc closing price (electronic trading) rose 0.54% to 3,066.5 US dollars/ton [12] 3.2 Raw Material Side 3.2.1 Zinc Concentrate Port Inventory - As of November 7, the inventory of imported zinc ore in Lianyungang was 160,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 tons. The total inventory of 7 ports was 348,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25,500 tons [29] 3.2.2 Zinc Concentrate Profit - As of November 6, the production profit of zinc concentrate enterprises was 5,094 yuan/metal ton. In September, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 505,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.15% and a year - on - year increase of 24.94%. From January to September, the cumulative import volume was 4.0081 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 40.49% [36] 3.2.3 Domestic TC and Imported TC - Both domestic TC and imported TC continued to decline. The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee on November 7, 2025, was 2,650 yuan/metal ton, and the imported index was 98.37 US dollars/dry ton [37][40] 3.3 Supply Side 3.3.1 Refined Zinc Production - The production profit of refined zinc enterprises continued to decline. As of November 6, the production profit was - 1,164 yuan/ton. It is expected that the refined zinc production in October will be 617,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.85% [46] 3.3.2 Refined Zinc Import - The import profit window was closed. As of November 7, the import profit of refined zinc was - 4,221.66 yuan/ton. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 258,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 61,600 tons [49] 3.4 Demand Side 3.4.1 Galvanizing - The galvanizing enterprise start - up rate decreased by 2.41 percentage points to 55.13%. Raw material inventory increased, and finished product inventory decreased [55][58] 3.4.2 Die - Casting Zinc Alloy - The price of die - casting zinc alloy increased. The start - up rate decreased by 1.55 percentage points to 50.95%. Raw material inventory decreased, and finished product inventory increased [64][67][70] 3.4.3 Zinc Oxide - The price of zinc oxide increased. The start - up rate decreased by 0.56 percentage points to 57.63%. Raw material inventory decreased, and finished product inventory increased slightly [76][79][82] 3.5 Inventory 3.5.1 Domestic Inventory - As of November 6, the SMM zinc ingot three - place inventory was 150,100 tons, and the bonded area inventory was 38,000 tons, both showing a downward trend [88] 3.5.2 Exchange Inventory - As of November 7, the SHFE inventory was 100,200 tons, showing a decline; as of November 6, the LME inventory was 34,900 tons, showing a trend of first decline and then increase [91]