Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai zinc will undergo wide - range adjustments, and attention should be paid to the range of 24,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton. The upstream zinc mine imports are at a high level, but domestic zinc mines are in production reduction at the end of the year. Domestic smelters' competition for domestic ore procurement has intensified, processing fees at home and abroad have dropped significantly, and the profits of domestic smelters have shrunk, with production expected to continue to be restricted. The export window may close again. The downstream market is turning to the off - season, and overall demand is weak, with only some policy - supported areas like the automobile sector showing bright spots. The spot premium is at a low level, and domestic social inventory has slightly increased, while LME zinc inventory is stable. Technically, the position has decreased and the price has adjusted, with both long and short positions trading cautiously [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market - Shanghai zinc main contract closing price: 24,395 yuan/ton, down 490 yuan; 03 - 04 month contract spread: - 55 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan - LME three - month zinc quote: 3,305.5 US dollars/ton, down 17.5 US dollars - Shanghai zinc total open interest: 194,134 lots, down 6,190 lots - Shanghai zinc top 20 net open interest: 2,011 lots, down 4 lots - Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts: 0 tons, unchanged - SHFE inventory: 65,154 tons, down 7,997 tons; LME inventory: 108,200 tons, down 775 tons [3] 3.2. Spot Market - Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network 0 zinc spot price: 24,580 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan - Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market 1 zinc spot price: 24,160 yuan/ton, down 510 yuan - ZN main contract basis: 185 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan - LME zinc cash - 3 months spread: - 22.23 US dollars/ton, up 3.66 US dollars - Kunming 50% zinc concentrate ex - works price: 21,710 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan - Shanghai 85% - 86% crushed zinc price: 16,750 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [3] 3.3. Upstream Situation - WBMS zinc supply - demand balance: - 35,700 tons, down 14,700 tons - ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance: - 7,700 tons, down 4,900 tons - ILZSG global zinc mine production: 1.0627 million tons, down 11,900 tons - Domestic refined zinc production: 675,000 tons, up 21,000 tons - Zinc ore imports: 462,600 tons, down 53,900 tons [3] 3.4. Industry Situation - Refined zinc imports: 8,760.85 tons, down 9,469.07 tons - Refined zinc exports: 27,266.66 tons, down 15,548.89 tons - Zinc social inventory: 111,300 tons, up 4,100 tons [3] 3.5. Downstream Situation - Galvanized sheet production: 2.36 million tons, up 20,000 tons; sales: 2.36 million tons - New housing construction area: 58.76996 million square meters; housing completion area: 60.34813 million square meters, down 20.8942 million square meters - Automobile production: 3.4115 million vehicles, down 107,500 vehicles - Air - conditioner production: 21.6289 million units, up 6.6029 million units [3] 3.6. Options Market - Zinc at - the - money call option implied volatility: 31.1%, down 5.39% - Zinc at - the - money put option implied volatility: 31.1%, down 5.39% - Zinc at - the - money option 20 - day historical volatility: 0.08%; 60 - day historical volatility: 18.91%, up 0.02% [3] 3.7. Industry News - The People's Bank of China focuses on supporting key areas such as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium - sized enterprises. - The US ADP employment data in January was significantly lower than expected, with only 22,000 new jobs added, indicating weakening momentum in the labor market at the beginning of the year. The growth was entirely driven by the education and healthcare service sectors, while many key industries such as professional business services and manufacturing experienced employment contractions. - The US ISM services PMI index in January was 53.8, remaining at the highest level since October 2024, better than expected. Business activity rebounded, but new order growth slowed down, employment hardly expanded, and the price index reached a three - month high. [3]

预计沪锌宽幅调整，关注2.4支撑。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪锌主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 24515 | -1320 03-04月合约价差:沪锌(日,元/吨) | -15 | 30 | | | LME三个月锌报价(日,美元/吨) | 3370 | -42 沪锌总持仓量(日,手) | 215326 | -17909 | | | 沪锌前20名净持仓(日,手) | 16607 | 5829 沪锌仓单(日,吨) | 0 | 0 | | | 上期所库存 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, zinc prices are supported by a tightened ore end and a continuous decline in TC, but the weak domestic consumption and开工 decline in some areas due to environmental protection limit the upside space of zinc prices. The zinc prices may face pressure in the short term, and attention should be paid to the resistance level of 23,000 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - SMM1 zinc ingot average price rose 1.62% to 22,570 yuan/ton; Shanghai zinc main contract closing price rose 1.63% to 22,720 yuan/ton; LME zinc closing price (electronic trading) rose 0.54% to 3,066.5 US dollars/ton [12] 3.2 Raw Material Side 3.2.1 Zinc Concentrate Port Inventory - As of November 7, the inventory of imported zinc ore in Lianyungang was 160,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 tons. The total inventory of 7 ports was 348,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25,500 tons [29] 3.2.2 Zinc Concentrate Profit - As of November 6, the production profit of zinc concentrate enterprises was 5,094 yuan/metal ton. In September, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 505,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.15% and a year - on - year increase of 24.94%. From January to September, the cumulative import volume was 4.0081 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 40.49% [36] 3.2.3 Domestic TC and Imported TC - Both domestic TC and imported TC continued to decline. The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee on November 7, 2025, was 2,650 yuan/metal ton, and the imported index was 98.37 US dollars/dry ton [37][40] 3.3 Supply Side 3.3.1 Refined Zinc Production - The production profit of refined zinc enterprises continued to decline. As of November 6, the production profit was - 1,164 yuan/ton. It is expected that the refined zinc production in October will be 617,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.85% [46] 3.3.2 Refined Zinc Import - The import profit window was closed. As of November 7, the import profit of refined zinc was - 4,221.66 yuan/ton. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 258,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 61,600 tons [49] 3.4 Demand Side 3.4.1 Galvanizing - The galvanizing enterprise start - up rate decreased by 2.41 percentage points to 55.13%. Raw material inventory increased, and finished product inventory decreased [55][58] 3.4.2 Die - Casting Zinc Alloy - The price of die - casting zinc alloy increased. The start - up rate decreased by 1.55 percentage points to 50.95%. Raw material inventory decreased, and finished product inventory increased [64][67][70] 3.4.3 Zinc Oxide - The price of zinc oxide increased. The start - up rate decreased by 0.56 percentage points to 57.63%. Raw material inventory decreased, and finished product inventory increased slightly [76][79][82] 3.5 Inventory 3.5.1 Domestic Inventory - As of November 6, the SMM zinc ingot three - place inventory was 150,100 tons, and the bonded area inventory was 38,000 tons, both showing a downward trend [88] 3.5.2 Exchange Inventory - As of November 7, the SHFE inventory was 100,200 tons, showing a decline; as of November 6, the LME inventory was 34,900 tons, showing a trend of first decline and then increase [91]