Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai zinc will undergo wide - range adjustments, and attention should be paid to the range of 24,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton. The upstream zinc mine imports are at a high level, but domestic zinc mines are in production reduction at the end of the year. Domestic smelters' competition for domestic ore procurement has intensified, processing fees at home and abroad have dropped significantly, and the profits of domestic smelters have shrunk, with production expected to continue to be restricted. The export window may close again. The downstream market is turning to the off - season, and overall demand is weak, with only some policy - supported areas like the automobile sector showing bright spots. The spot premium is at a low level, and domestic social inventory has slightly increased, while LME zinc inventory is stable. Technically, the position has decreased and the price has adjusted, with both long and short positions trading cautiously [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market - Shanghai zinc main contract closing price: 24,395 yuan/ton, down 490 yuan; 03 - 04 month contract spread: - 55 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan - LME three - month zinc quote: 3,305.5 US dollars/ton, down 17.5 US dollars - Shanghai zinc total open interest: 194,134 lots, down 6,190 lots - Shanghai zinc top 20 net open interest: 2,011 lots, down 4 lots - Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts: 0 tons, unchanged - SHFE inventory: 65,154 tons, down 7,997 tons; LME inventory: 108,200 tons, down 775 tons [3] 3.2. Spot Market - Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network 0 zinc spot price: 24,580 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan - Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market 1 zinc spot price: 24,160 yuan/ton, down 510 yuan - ZN main contract basis: 185 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan - LME zinc cash - 3 months spread: - 22.23 US dollars/ton, up 3.66 US dollars - Kunming 50% zinc concentrate ex - works price: 21,710 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan - Shanghai 85% - 86% crushed zinc price: 16,750 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [3] 3.3. Upstream Situation - WBMS zinc supply - demand balance: - 35,700 tons, down 14,700 tons - ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance: - 7,700 tons, down 4,900 tons - ILZSG global zinc mine production: 1.0627 million tons, down 11,900 tons - Domestic refined zinc production: 675,000 tons, up 21,000 tons - Zinc ore imports: 462,600 tons, down 53,900 tons [3] 3.4. Industry Situation - Refined zinc imports: 8,760.85 tons, down 9,469.07 tons - Refined zinc exports: 27,266.66 tons, down 15,548.89 tons - Zinc social inventory: 111,300 tons, up 4,100 tons [3] 3.5. Downstream Situation - Galvanized sheet production: 2.36 million tons, up 20,000 tons; sales: 2.36 million tons - New housing construction area: 58.76996 million square meters; housing completion area: 60.34813 million square meters, down 20.8942 million square meters - Automobile production: 3.4115 million vehicles, down 107,500 vehicles - Air - conditioner production: 21.6289 million units, up 6.6029 million units [3] 3.6. Options Market - Zinc at - the - money call option implied volatility: 31.1%, down 5.39% - Zinc at - the - money put option implied volatility: 31.1%, down 5.39% - Zinc at - the - money option 20 - day historical volatility: 0.08%; 60 - day historical volatility: 18.91%, up 0.02% [3] 3.7. Industry News - The People's Bank of China focuses on supporting key areas such as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium - sized enterprises. - The US ADP employment data in January was significantly lower than expected, with only 22,000 new jobs added, indicating weakening momentum in the labor market at the beginning of the year. The growth was entirely driven by the education and healthcare service sectors, while many key industries such as professional business services and manufacturing experienced employment contractions. - The US ISM services PMI index in January was 53.8, remaining at the highest level since October 2024, better than expected. Business activity rebounded, but new order growth slowed down, employment hardly expanded, and the price index reached a three - month high. [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai zinc will undergo wide - range adjustments, and attention should be paid to the 24,000 support level [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 24,515 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,320 yuan; the 03 - 04 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is - 15 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan [3] - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 3,370 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 42 US dollars; the total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 215,326 lots, a decrease of 17,909 lots [3] - The net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 16,607 lots, an increase of 5,829 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 0 tons, with no change [3] - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 73,151 tons, a decrease of 3,160 tons; the LME inventory is 110,000 tons, an increase of 250 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 24,970 yuan/ton, a decrease of 820 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 24,060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,170 yuan [3] - The basis of the ZN main contract is 455 yuan/ton, an increase of 500 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 8.41 US dollars/ton, an increase of 13.97 US dollars [3] - The ex - factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 22,370 yuan/ton, an increase of 370 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 35,700 tons, a decrease of 14,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 7,700 tons, a decrease of 4,900 tons [3] - The global zinc mine production of ILZSG is 1.0627 million tons, a decrease of 11,900 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 675,000 tons, an increase of 21,000 tons [3] - The zinc ore import volume is 462,600 tons, a decrease of 53,900 tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 8,760.85 tons, a decrease of 9,469.07 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 27,266.66 tons, a decrease of 15,548.89 tons [3] - The social inventory of zinc is 112,200 tons, an increase of 5,800 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.36 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.36 million tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons [3] - The monthly new housing construction area is 587.6996 million square meters, an increase of 53.1326 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 603.4813 million square meters, an increase of 208.942 million square meters [3] - The monthly automobile production is 3.4115 million vehicles, a decrease of 107,500 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 21.6289 million units, an increase of 6.6029 million units [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 43.36%, an increase of 7.25 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 43.35%, an increase of 7.27 percentage points [3] - The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option for zinc is 39.69%, an increase of 5.89 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option for zinc is 18.58%, an increase of 3.75 percentage points [3] 3.7 Industry News - In January, some manufacturing industries entered the traditional off - season, and the effective market demand was still insufficient. The manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, and the prosperity level decreased compared with the previous month, but production continued to expand [3] - In January, affected by factors such as the decline in the prosperity of the construction industry, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 49.4%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the overall prosperity level of the non - manufacturing industry declined [3] - The US Senate passed a $1.2 trillion government spending bill, but a short - term government shutdown is unavoidable. House Speaker Johnson said he is "confident" that the government will resume operation before Tuesday [3] - Trump said that Walsh did not promise him an interest rate cut, but he "certainly wants an interest rate cut" [3] 3.8 Viewpoint Summary - The upstream zinc ore import volume is high, but domestic zinc mines reduce production at the end of the year. The competition among domestic smelters to purchase domestic ores has increased, and the processing fees at home and abroad have significantly decreased. The profits of domestic smelters have shrunk, and it is expected that production will continue to be restricted [3] - Recently, the LME zinc price has corrected, the Shanghai - LME ratio has rebounded, and the export window may close again [3] - On the demand side, the downstream market is gradually turning to the off - season. The real estate sector is a drag, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors are also weakening. However, policy support in areas such as the automobile industry brings some highlights [3] - The downstream market mainly purchases on - demand at low prices. Recently, the zinc price has risen, downstream purchases have become lighter, the spot premium has decreased, and the domestic social inventory has remained stable with a slight increase. The LME zinc inventory has remained stable, and the spot premium has remained at a low level [3] - Technically, the price has declined with increasing volume and decreasing open interest, and the bullish sentiment has decreased [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, zinc prices are supported by a tightened ore end and a continuous decline in TC, but the weak domestic consumption and开工 decline in some areas due to environmental protection limit the upside space of zinc prices. The zinc prices may face pressure in the short term, and attention should be paid to the resistance level of 23,000 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - SMM1 zinc ingot average price rose 1.62% to 22,570 yuan/ton; Shanghai zinc main contract closing price rose 1.63% to 22,720 yuan/ton; LME zinc closing price (electronic trading) rose 0.54% to 3,066.5 US dollars/ton [12] 3.2 Raw Material Side 3.2.1 Zinc Concentrate Port Inventory - As of November 7, the inventory of imported zinc ore in Lianyungang was 160,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 tons. The total inventory of 7 ports was 348,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25,500 tons [29] 3.2.2 Zinc Concentrate Profit - As of November 6, the production profit of zinc concentrate enterprises was 5,094 yuan/metal ton. In September, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 505,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.15% and a year - on - year increase of 24.94%. From January to September, the cumulative import volume was 4.0081 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 40.49% [36] 3.2.3 Domestic TC and Imported TC - Both domestic TC and imported TC continued to decline. The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee on November 7, 2025, was 2,650 yuan/metal ton, and the imported index was 98.37 US dollars/dry ton [37][40] 3.3 Supply Side 3.3.1 Refined Zinc Production - The production profit of refined zinc enterprises continued to decline. As of November 6, the production profit was - 1,164 yuan/ton. It is expected that the refined zinc production in October will be 617,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.85% [46] 3.3.2 Refined Zinc Import - The import profit window was closed. As of November 7, the import profit of refined zinc was - 4,221.66 yuan/ton. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 258,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 61,600 tons [49] 3.4 Demand Side 3.4.1 Galvanizing - The galvanizing enterprise start - up rate decreased by 2.41 percentage points to 55.13%. Raw material inventory increased, and finished product inventory decreased [55][58] 3.4.2 Die - Casting Zinc Alloy - The price of die - casting zinc alloy increased. The start - up rate decreased by 1.55 percentage points to 50.95%. Raw material inventory decreased, and finished product inventory increased [64][67][70] 3.4.3 Zinc Oxide - The price of zinc oxide increased. The start - up rate decreased by 0.56 percentage points to 57.63%. Raw material inventory decreased, and finished product inventory increased slightly [76][79][82] 3.5 Inventory 3.5.1 Domestic Inventory - As of November 6, the SMM zinc ingot three - place inventory was 150,100 tons, and the bonded area inventory was 38,000 tons, both showing a downward trend [88] 3.5.2 Exchange Inventory - As of November 7, the SHFE inventory was 100,200 tons, showing a decline; as of November 6, the LME inventory was 34,900 tons, showing a trend of first decline and then increase [91]